Billboard Hot 100: 02/06/2016 (Sorry #1. Bieber Top 2)

[Ravi]

Jan 24, 2016 9:45:22 GMT -5 carreramd said:

Jan 22, 2016 22:14:25 GMT -5 Ravi said:

Updated predictions

Rank - Song - Sales - Airplay - Streams = Points

1 - Sorry - 85 - 140 - 20.0 = 43,300
2 - Love Yourself - 145 - 115 - 17.0 = 42,500
3 - Hello - 90 - 145 - 16.0 = 39,800
4 - Stressed Out - 130 - 105 - 11.0 = 33,500
5 - Here - 40 - 120 - 7.0 = 23,100
6 - Roses - 75 - 70 - 8.0 = 22,100
7 - Same Old Love - 40 - 110 - 6.5 = 21,600
8 - Hotline Bling - 35 - 70 - 10.0 = 21,000
9 - Stitches - 40 - 85 - 8.0 = 20,700
10-12 - My House - 115 - 40 - 6.0 = 20,200
10-12 - Like I'm Gonna Lose You - 40 - 100 - 6.0 = 20,000
10-12 - What Do You Mean - 40 - 42 - 11.0 = 19,800

I'm thinking Sorry may just hold off Love Yourself this week. Love Yourself failed to increase on streaming while Sorry had a minor decrease.

Here should enter Top-5 after a long wait. Roses should be #6.

My house can enter Top-10, but it will be very close! I hope it gets it.

Good prediction! How do you make the estimate? What's the calculation (Radio x 3, Streams x 4 ??) and where do you find the streams for some songs that isn't on Spotify (like Hello)?

Sales prediction: kworb popbars
Airplay prediction: Mediabase figures
Streams: More of a guess really based on last week's data and the trend.

Formula: Sales/12 + Airplay/10,000 + Streams/900

PS: Streaming for top-3 songs should be 1-1.5m lower based on the latest Youtube chart.

[Deleted]

Jan 24, 2016 11:08:28 GMT -5 Ravi said:

Jan 24, 2016 9:45:22 GMT -5 carreramd said:

Good prediction! How do you make the estimate? What's the calculation (Radio x 3, Streams x 4 ??) and where do you find the streams for some songs that isn't on Spotify (like Hello)?

Sales prediction: kworb popbars
Airplay prediction: Mediabase figures
Streams: More of a guess really based on last week's data and the trend.

Formula: Sales/12 + Airplay/10,000 + Streams/900

PS: Streaming for top-3 songs should be 1-1.5m lower based on the latest Youtube chart.

What about other sales like from Amazon? There's also physical, but I'm guessing numbers for those are too difficult to bother with (or physical singles don't sell like physical albums still do).

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 from 55, 50, 45, and 40 years ago:

January 30, 1961 (for the week ending February 4)

01 04 Will You Love Me Tomorrow - The Shirelles (1st of 2 weeks at #1)
02 03 Calcutta - Lawrence Welk
03 02 Exodus - Ferrante & Teicher
04 01 Wonderland By Night - Bert Kaempfert
05 07 Shop Around - The Miracles
06 05 Angel Baby - Rosie & The Originals
07 08 Calendar Girl - Neil Sedaka
08 13 Emotions - Brenda Lee
09 09 Rubber Ball - Bobby Vee
10 06 Are You Lonesome Tonight? - Elvis Presley


February 5, 1966

01 09 My Love - Petula Clark (1st of 2 weeks at #1)
02 02 Barbara Ann - The Beach Boys
03 04 No Matter What Shape (Your Stomach's In) - The T-Bones
04 01 We Can Work It Out - The Beatles
05 20 Lightnin' Strikes - Lou Christie
06 07 The Men In My Little Girl's Life - Mike Douglas
07 03 She's Just My Style - Gary Lewis & The Playboys
08 05 Five O'Clock World - The Vogues
09 08 A Must To Avoid - Herman's Hermits
10 16 Crying Time - Ray Charles


February 6, 1971

01 01 Knock Three Times - Dawn (3rd and final week at #1)
02 09 One Bad Apple - The Osmonds
03 02 My Sweet Lord / Isn't It a Pity - George Harrison
04 03 Lonely Day - The Bee Gees
05 05 Rose Garden - Lynn Anderson
06 07 I Hear You Knockin' - Dave Edmund's Rockpile
07 06 Groove Me - King Floyd
08 08 Your Song - Elton John
09 04 One Less Bell To Answer - The 5th Dimension
10 11 If I Were Your Woman - Gladys Knight & The Pips


February 7, 1976

01 10 50 Ways To Leave Your Lover - Paul Simon (1st of 3 weeks at #1)
02 03 Love To Love You Baby - Donna Summer
03 04 You Sexy Thing - Hot Chocolate
04 02 I Write The Songs - Barry Manilow
05 07 Sing a Song - Earth, Wind & Fire
06 01 Love Rollercoaster - The Ohio Players
07 08 Time Of Your Life - Paul Anka
08 17 Theme From S.W.A.T. - Rhythm Heritage
09 06 Convoy - C.W. McCall
10 16 Breaking Up Is Hard To Do - Neil Sedaka

[Ravi]

Jan 24, 2016 11:36:02 GMT -5 @zach808 said:

Jan 24, 2016 11:08:28 GMT -5 Ravi said:

Sales prediction: kworb popbars
Airplay prediction: Mediabase figures
Streams: More of a guess really based on last week's data and the trend.

Formula: Sales/12 + Airplay/10,000 + Streams/900

PS: Streaming for top-3 songs should be 1-1.5m lower based on the latest Youtube chart.

What about other sales like from Amazon? There's also physical, but I'm guessing numbers for those are too difficult to bother with (or physical singles don't sell like physical albums still do).

popbars show ratios of song sales.... so they are approximate to the overall sales ratio as well. If Hello is selling 60% of Stressed Out on itunes, it would be selling close to a similar percentage on other outlets as well.

I generally guess sales for a couple of songs based on last week sales and its trend over the last few weeks and deduce the sales for all other songs.

For example, for next week chart, let's say Stressed Out is 1.000 for the whole week, and My House remains close to 0.800 for the whole week. Now last week, according to Nielsen Soundscan, Stressed Out sold 121k and this week it sold 131k, so next week it should sell ~140k. Based on that My House should sell around 112k.

Kworb uses a similar but advanced method to calculate sales and his accuracy is within 5%. Mine is around 10%.

[carreramd]

Ravi Good!
Do you think that Cake By The Ocean will go down some positions this week?

[jayhawk1117]

So this trending of a guy snowboarding through new York has some frank Sinatra in it. If it continues its trend maybe we'll see him enter the charts next week

[85la]

Jan 24, 2016 7:53:56 GMT -5 ry4n said:

Top 10 flashbacks for this week


5 years ago (2/5/2011)

1 2 Grenade - Bruno Mars (3rd week of 4 @ #1)
2 3 Firework - Katy Perry
3 5 Black And Yellow - Wiz Khalifa
4 6 Tonight (I'm F**kin'/Lovin' You) - Enrique Iglesias feat. Ludacris & DJ Frank E
5 4 What's My Name? - Rihanna feat. Drake
6 1 Hold It Against Me - Britney Spears
7 7 We R Who We R - Ke$ha
8 8 Raise Your Glass - P!nk
9 9 The Time (Dirty Bit) - Black Eyed Peas
10 20 Hey Baby (Drop It To The Floor) - Pitbull feat. T-Pain

I was surprised when Hold it Against Me dropped to number 6 after debuting at #1 and overall underperformed. It started off with a very good sales number and also debuted high and shot up radio really fast, but then peaked quickly, and fell hard after that. It was a pretty good song too.

[Rocky]

Jan 24, 2016 16:11:09 GMT -5 85la said:

Jan 24, 2016 7:53:56 GMT -5 ry4n said:

Top 10 flashbacks for this week


5 years ago (2/5/2011)

1 2 Grenade - Bruno Mars (3rd week of 4 @ #1)
2 3 Firework - Katy Perry
3 5 Black And Yellow - Wiz Khalifa
4 6 Tonight (I'm F**kin'/Lovin' You) - Enrique Iglesias feat. Ludacris & DJ Frank E
5 4 What's My Name? - Rihanna feat. Drake
6 1 Hold It Against Me - Britney Spears
7 7 We R Who We R - Ke$ha
8 8 Raise Your Glass - P!nk
9 9 The Time (Dirty Bit) - Black Eyed Peas
10 20 Hey Baby (Drop It To The Floor) - Pitbull feat. T-Pain

I was surprised when Hold it Against Me dropped to number 6 after debuting at #1 and overall underperformed. It started off with a very good sales number and also debuted high and shot up radio really fast, but then peaked quickly, and fell hard after that. It was a pretty good song too.

We all know that was Gaga's fault. F her.

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

Jan 25, 2016 3:14:03 GMT -5 Rocky said:

Jan 24, 2016 16:11:09 GMT -5 85la said:

I was surprised when Hold it Against Me dropped to number 6 after debuting at #1 and overall underperformed. It started off with a very good sales number and also debuted high and shot up radio really fast, but then peaked quickly, and fell hard after that. It was a pretty good song too.

We all know that was Gaga's fault. F her.

Someday I'll be living in a big old city, and all you're ever gonna be is mean

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Jan 24, 2016 11:36:02 GMT -5 @zach808 said:

Jan 24, 2016 11:08:28 GMT -5 Ravi said:

Sales prediction: kworb popbars
Airplay prediction: Mediabase figures
Streams: More of a guess really based on last week's data and the trend.

Formula: Sales/12 + Airplay/10,000 + Streams/900

PS: Streaming for top-3 songs should be 1-1.5m lower based on the latest Youtube chart.

What about other sales like from Amazon? There's also physical, but I'm guessing numbers for those are too difficult to bother with (or physical singles don't sell like physical albums still do).

Sales are so small from outlets other than iTunes that they wouldn't have much impact on the numbers anyway. The only times it really changes much is when they sell albums on Amazon and and Google Play for 99 cents

[jebsib]

Adele's success with her second single is paramount. Otherwise there will be a perception that the act is in decline, despite massive album sales.

Perception is everything, and you can ask Alanis Morissette, George Michael, Hootie or Peter Frampton.
The first followup single to a monster album is usually a guaranteed smash.
But there are very few Rhythm Nation 1814s, Bads or Come On Overs.

[Deleted]

WWWY was just officially serviced to radio on January 22nd. 3 days ago. While radio add dates don't necessarily matter (obviously, as it's already top 15 by the time it was officially serviced)... it does mean the label has a timeline in place to work/promote it - which JUST began 3 days ago. This is far from the timeline that would require this song to be smashing/flopping already, especially without a proper video and/or potential audio streaming availability.  I'm anxious to see how it plays out in terms of peak and longevity on the Hot 100, smash or not.

[Gary]

The lead single of '25' spent 10 weeks at #1, the album is tracking towards 10 million.

The second single not being an instant smash does not mean doom for Adele. Even if the second single does not hit #1, does not mean the third or fourth won't

[magik]

Jan 25, 2016 9:11:47 GMT -5 jebsib said:

Adele's success with her second single is paramount. Otherwise there will be a perception that the act is in decline, despite massive album sales.

Perception is everything, and you can ask Alanis Morissette, George Michael, Hootie or Peter Frampton.
The first followup single to a monster album is usually a guaranteed smash.
But there are very few Rhythm Nation 1814s, Bads or Come On Overs.

The media is calling 25 a "juggernaut," so the perception is clearly her era is already huge. Adele is seen as a household name and her name is everywhere. She's a superstar.

Alanis Morrisette, George Michael, Hootie and whoever else fell more than 50% in sales and didn't produce any big hit like "Hello." Those were legitimate declines that were worth noting. 25 is inching closer to 21 in term of sales and produced a ten week #1 that resonated in pop culture. None of those artists you named did that, so I'm not even sure why they were mentioned.

[Daniel Collins]

2016/01/25

*** = dropped or added a format

1. ADELE - Hello: 186.876 (-1.593)
2. JUSTIN BIEBER - Sorry: 182.480 (-0.848)
3. ALESSIA CARA - Here: 155.363 (-1.718***)
4. JUSTIN BIEBER - Love Yourself: 144.442 (+3.050***) ▲
5. SELENA GOMEZ - Same Old Love: 142.400 (-1.298) ▼
6. TWENTY ONE PILOTS - Stressed Out: 130.659 (+3.468***)
7. THE WEEKND - In The Night: 127.925 (+2.442***)
8. MEGHAN TRAINOR - Like I'm Gonna Lose You: 119.197 (-2.529)
9. SHAWN MENDES - Stitches: 112.413 (+0.577)
10. DRAKE - Hotline Bling: 91.302 (-1.382)

11. THE CHAINSMOKERS - Roses f/Rozes: 87.934 (+0.893)
12. ELLIE GOULDING - On My Mind: 86.061 (+0.204)
13. TAYLOR SWIFT - Wildest Dreams: 83.741 (-1.976***)
14. ELLE KING - Ex's and Oh's: 80.733 (-0.859***)
15. ADELE - When We Were Young: 76.989 (+0.569)
16. THOMAS RHETT - Die A Happy Man: 73.303 (-0.418)
17. BROTHERS OSBORNE - Stay A Little Longer: 72.209 (+0.351)
18. DRAKE & FUTURE - Jumpman: 68.260 (-0.461)
19. TRAVI$ SCOTT - Antidote: 68.107 (-0.061)
20. LUKE BRYAN - Home Alone Tonight: 68.065 (+0.557)

21. THE WEEKND - The Hills: 67.415 (+1.836***)
22. SAM HUNT - Break Up In A Small Town: 64.855 (+0.273)
23. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 61.640 (+0.254)
24. DAYA - Hide Away: 60.025 (+0.582) ▲
25. LOCASH - I Love This Life: 59.377 (-1.309) ▼
26. TORY LANEZ - Say It: 59.078 (+0.659)
27. TAYLOR SWIFT - Out Of The Woods: 56.666 (+1.653***) ▲
28. GRANGER SMITH - Backroad Song: 55.998 (+0.585) ▼
29. RACHEL PLATTEN - Stand By You: 53.885 (+0.947)
30. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 51.456 (-0.772)

31. FLO RIDA - My House: 51.256 (+1.476) ▲
32. JUSTIN BIEBER - What Do You Mean?: 50.894 (-0.935) ▼
33. KEITH URBAN - Break On Me: 50.344 (+0.801) ▲
34. KELSEA BALLERINI - Dibs: 49.760 (+0.437) ▲
35. DEMI LOVATO - Confident: 49.093 (-2.144) ▼
36. JASON ALDEAN - Gonna Know We Were Here: 48.218 (-1.220) ▼
37. BRYSON TILLER - Don't: 47.851 (-0.043)
38. RANDY HOUSER - We Went: 47.295 (+0.552) ▲
39. DNCE - Cake By The Ocean: 46.490 (+1.213) ▲
40. R. CITY - Locked Away f/Adam Levine: 45.921 (-0.436)

41. YO GOTTI - Down In The DM: 45.747 (+0.455)
42. JANA KRAMER - I Got The Boy: 45.279 (-2.284) ▼
43. SHAWN MENDES & CAMILA CABELLO - I Know What You Did Last...: 44.076 (+0.343) ▲
44. CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Heartbeat: 43.917 (+0.413) ▲
45. X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 43.728 (+0.540***) ▲
46. FETTY WAP - Again: 43.688 (+1.202***) ▲
47. ONE DIRECTION - Perfect: 43.031 (-1.109) ▼
48. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 42.872 (-0.416) ▼
49. COLDPLAY - Adventure Of A Lifetime: 42.663 (+2.901***) ▲
50. ZAC BROWN BAND - Beautiful Drug: 42.346 (+0.628) ▲

51. MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 42.176 (+0.150) ▼
52. FETTY WAP - 679 f/Remy Boyz...: 41.588 (-0.606) ▼
53. BRAD PAISLEY - Country Nation: 41.539 (+0.336) ▼
54. CHRIS BROWN - Back To Sleep: 41.410 (+0.377) ▼
55. ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 40.806 (+0.055) ▼
56. MARK RONSON - Uptown Funk f/Bruno Mars: 39.471 (+0.061) ▲
57. POST MALONE - White Iverson: 38.801 (-0.692) ▼
58. J. COLE - No Role Modelz: 37.852 (+0.730)
59. CHARLIE PUTH - One Call Away: 37.708 (+0.656)
60. BLAKE SHELTON - Gonna: 36.577 (-0.254)

61. ERIC CHURCH - Mr. Misunderstood: 36.156 (+0.037)
62. FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Confession: 35.825 (+0.108)
63. SELENA GOMEZ - Hands To Myself: 35.055 (+2.374) ▲
64. CHRIS YOUNG - I'm Comin' Over: 34.681 (-0.231) ▼
65. MAROON 5 - Sugar: 34.333 (-0.305) ▼
66. CHASE BRYANT - Little Bit Of You: 34.042 (+0.217) ▼
67. RASCAL FLATTS - I Like The Sound Of That: 33.706 (+0.256) ▼
68. BRETT ELDREDGE - Drunk On Your Love: 32.351 (+0.672)
69. RACHEL PLATTEN - Fight Song: 31.343 (-0.054)
70. COLE SWINDELL - You Should Be Here: 30.715 (+0.634)

71. G-EAZY - Me Myself And I f/Bebe Rexha: 30.693 (+1.854) ▲
72. CHRIS STAPLETON - Nobody To Blame: 29.864 (+0.720)
73. ED SHEERAN - Thinking Out Loud: 29.848 (+0.105) ▼
74. TAYLOR SWIFT - Style: 26.959 (+0.087) ▲
75. FALL OUT BOY - Irresistible f/Demi Lovato: 26.714 (-0.263) ▼

[Connor Walsh]

Jan 25, 2016 10:15:20 GMT -5 magik said:

Jan 25, 2016 9:11:47 GMT -5 jebsib said:

Adele's success with her second single is paramount. Otherwise there will be a perception that the act is in decline, despite massive album sales.

Perception is everything, and you can ask Alanis Morissette, George Michael, Hootie or Peter Frampton.
The first followup single to a monster album is usually a guaranteed smash.
But there are very few Rhythm Nation 1814s, Bads or Come On Overs.

The media is calling 25 a "juggernaut," so the perception is clearly her era is already huge. Adele is seen as a household name and her name is everywhere. She's a superstar.

Alanis Morrisette, George Michael, Hootie and whoever else fell more than 50% in sales and didn't produce any big hit like "Hello." Those were legitimate declines that were worth noting. 25 is inching closer to 21 in term of sales and produced a ten week #1 that resonated in pop culture. None of those artists you named did that, so I'm not even sure why they were mentioned.

Also the strong iTunes performance of WWWY , and promotion has yet to come for this song. 

[forg]

Claws are really out for Adele, eh? Like some people have been waiting for her to "flop" or at least have a reason to discredit the success

[Caviar]

Jan 25, 2016 12:25:16 GMT -5 forg said:

Claws are really out for Adele, eh? Like some people have been waiting for her to "flop" or at least have a reason to discredit the success

It's sad isn't it?

[forg]

Jan 25, 2016 12:28:31 GMT -5 Caviar said:

Jan 25, 2016 12:25:16 GMT -5 forg said:

Claws are really out for Adele, eh? Like some people have been waiting for her to "flop" or at least have a reason to discredit the success

It's sad isn't it?

Well I guess it's inevitable for such huge success

[magik]

Jan 25, 2016 12:25:16 GMT -5 forg said:

Claws are really out for Adele, eh? Like some people have been waiting for her to "flop" or at least have a reason to discredit the success

I would love to "flop" and go diamond in the same year.

[MTSChart21]

1. Sorry (=) (I changed my prediction from LY being #1 this week to LY being #1 next week)
2. Love Yourself (+1)
3. Hello (-1)
4. Stressed Out (=)
5. Here (+1)
6. Roses (+5)
7. Same Old Love (-2)
8. Hotline Bling (-1)
9. Stitches (-1)
10. Like I'm Gonna Lose You (-1)
11. My House (+12)
12. What Do You Mean? (-2) (I hope I am wrong and it can stay in the top 10 for 2 more weeks. Sorry and Love Yourself could also be going after that "most weeks in the top 10 after debuting in it" record)

[ry4n]

Well, when you don't care for the artist, it gets tiring watch them dominate endlessly.

[Gary]

Jan 25, 2016 12:35:45 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

12. What Do You Mean? (-2) (I hope I am wrong and it can stay in the top 10 for 2 more weeks. Sorry and Love Yourself could also be going after that "most weeks in the top 10 after debuting in it" record)

Not likely as only one song has entered the top 10 the last 6 weeks.    With the holidays over and radio playlists becoming less stagnant, things are due for a shakeup.

I'll root for it to happen anyway, if for nothing else than the "Starships record" can get a new name  ;)

[velaxti]

^ Yeah, Roses is definitely going top 10, and Jumpman, Don't and My House could potentially get in this week or next week.

[MTSChart21]

Also, some quick extra predictions:
13. Jumpman
14. Don't

[badrobot]

I should note, my comment about WWWY is not about wishing for a flop.

I think the label is doing a weak job of promoting it. If you look at how a more typical mega artist is promoted, their second single usually flies to the top (or near the top) very quickly. WWWY is chugging along, but very slowly. Sure, maybe there will be some huge push circa the Grammys with a video and a release to streaming and it'll be another multi-week #1 for her, but I think if you look at a lot of other mega artist 2nd singles, they were already flying high in the top ten before that level of promotion kicked in. And, on top of that, there's no guarantee that her label is going to even do that kind of promotion here.

I also just fundamentally think WWWY is not as strong of a single -- Water Under the Bridge and Send My Love strike me as the 2 other obvious singles on the album.

[wjr15]

Jan 25, 2016 13:07:18 GMT -5 Gary said:

Jan 25, 2016 12:35:45 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

12. What Do You Mean? (-2) (I hope I am wrong and it can stay in the top 10 for 2 more weeks. Sorry and Love Yourself could also be going after that "most weeks in the top 10 after debuting in it" record)

Not likely as only one song has entered the top 10 the last 6 weeks.    With the holidays over and radio playlists becoming less stagnant, things are due for a shakeup.

Like I'm Gonna Lose You, Stitches and Hotline Bling are all gonna most likely gonna fall out of the Top 10 in the next 1-2 weeks which will leave spots for 3 new songs. And I can see Same Old Love and Here each lasting another 2-4 weeks in the Top 10 before falling out. Roses and My House both have chances of going Top 10 this week or next week. And I can see Cake By The Ocean and Hands To Myself both going Top 10 in the coming weeks.

EDIT: Plus callout scores haven't come out in over a month, once the new callout scores come back, I can see a big shake up in the radio playlist

[carreramd]

Little prediction:

1. Sorry
2. Love Yourself (+1)
3. Hello (-1)
4. Stressed Out
5. Here (+1)
6. Same Old Love (-1)
7. Stitches (+1)
8. Roses (+3)
9. Hotline Bling (-2)
10. Like Im Gonna Lose You (-1)
11. My House (+12)
12. In The Night (+3)
13. Jumpman (-1)
14. What Do You Mean (-4)
15. Don't (-2)

[Dylan :)]

#86 James Bay - Let It Go
#81 Tori Kelly - Hollow
#52 Fall Out Boy feat. Demi Lovato - Irresistible
#51 Ariana Grande - Focus (+2, lol)
#50 Taylor Swift - Out Of The Woods (up in sales and airplay)
#35 Adele - When We Were Young
#30 Daya - Hide Away
#26 Charlie Puth - One Call Away
#21 Selena Gomez - Hands To Myself (big streaming gains)
#16 G-Eazy feat. Bebe Rexha - Me, Myself & I
#12 Flo Rida - My House

#10 Justin Bieber - What Do You Mean?
#9 Drake - Hotline Bling (18 weeks @ #1 on rap, tied record with Iggy and Missy)
#8 The Chainsmokers feat. ROZES - Roses
#7 Selena Gomez - Same Old Love
#6 Shawn Mendes - Stitches die already
#5 Alessia Cara - Here
#4 Twenty One Pilots - Stressed Out
#3 Adele - Hello
#2 Justin Bieber - Love Yourself (#1 sales)
#1 Justin Bieber - Sorry (17th act to be #1 and #2, 11th to be lead #1 and #2)

[areyoureadytojump]

If you know where to look...