badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Mar 1, 2016 17:20:09 GMT -5
Any bets on whether PBP will become a longer-term hit?
Honestly its current boom reminds me of one Someone Like You leapt to #1. Obviously SLY was already a more successful song, but it had a big live performance and that also translated into sustained success.
It would be really nice for Kelly to have another big hit.
Meanwhile, on the Ariana front -- new singles almost always are a reflection of the past era's success. Focus kind of erased some of the prior era goodwill, so I would consider a #1 debut nearly impossible (recall how many people thought Focus was *guaranteed* a #1 debut and were totally wrong).
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Dylan :)
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Post by Dylan :) on Mar 1, 2016 17:53:15 GMT -5
I imagine Work's streaming and sales would've slowed a bit by next Friday. Meghan's new single may also help with that, especially with Piece By Piece. She is lucky she has SNL all to herself on Saturday too, perfect opportunity to get the song out there. Radio will probably be very quick to it, and seeing as Focus just passed 400 million views on YouTube (more than Love Me Harder), if they release the video, she should have no problem with her streaming numbers.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 17:59:03 GMT -5
Work's gains in airplay are more than enough to offset any minor streaming losses it's currently experiencing (it'll probably get around 40M this coming week, and should stay above 30M in the following couple of weeks)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 18:28:16 GMT -5
I just put Ariana's potential out there... it sounds like they have a pretty solid rollout planned with hosting/performing on SNL a sure thing so far and she's already teasing stuff on a website. Hype is already starting and it's almost 2 weeks away. Given how well Focus did and people didn't even like the song... I think a well-received song by her (like Problem was) has the power potentially. I think people are still hungry for a smasher from her and she'll be quickly forgiven for Focus if this one shreds.
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Dylan :)
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Post by Dylan :) on Mar 1, 2016 19:10:00 GMT -5
Any predictions for Work From Home? #11 on Spotify, should finish around 15-20M views on YT, around 90K sales
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 19:15:35 GMT -5
Any predictions for Work From Home? #11 on Spotify, should finish around 15-20M views on YT, around 90K sales 15-20M worldwide views or USA views? |
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Spidey
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Post by Spidey on Mar 1, 2016 21:56:47 GMT -5
Any predictions for Work From Home? #11 on Spotify, should finish around 15-20M views on YT, around 90K sales 15-20M worldwide views or USA views? I think he meant worldwide. The video is currently at 13,316,557 views on YouTube. |
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Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on Mar 1, 2016 22:42:13 GMT -5
Based on the information from the past few posts, it seems like a top 20 debut for "Work From Home" is guranteed, with a decent shot at top 15. Might even have a slim shot at top ten, but I doubt it.
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forg
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Post by forg on Mar 1, 2016 22:50:13 GMT -5
Is the Idol version of Piece by Piece on Spotify?
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MTSChart21
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Post by MTSChart21 on Mar 2, 2016 1:16:18 GMT -5
Early predictions:
1. Work (=)
2. Love Yourself (=)
3. Stressed Out (=)
4. My House (+1)
5. Piece By Piece (Debut)
6. Sorry (-2)
7. PILLOWTALK (-1)
8. Me, Myself & I (-1)
9. 7 Years (+3)
10. Hello (-2) [Sorry, guys]
11. Cake By The Ocean (-2)
12. Hands To Myself (-1)
13. Roses (-3)
14. I Took A Pill In Ibiza (+1)
15. One Call Away (-1)
16. Down In The DM (-3)
17. Work From Home (Debut)
18. Stitches (-2)
19. Don't (-2)
39. Never Forget You (+19)
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imbondz
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Post by imbondz on Mar 2, 2016 7:00:49 GMT -5
Is the Idol version of Piece by Piece on Spotify? Yes |
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imbondz
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Post by imbondz on Mar 2, 2016 7:05:34 GMT -5
So how will Billboard deal with the 2 different versions of piece by piece? Combine or separate? They're definitely different.
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Mar 2, 2016 7:10:19 GMT -5
Most remixes and alternate versions are different. They're still the same song.
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imbondz
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Post by imbondz on Mar 2, 2016 7:16:17 GMT -5
Okay, what about throwing in a fantasy number of 15 million streams into the equation? (I'm talking Spotify + Song/Music Video + Live Performance videos if the label finds a way to make them count) In my fantasy scenario the label would do what they needed to in order to make the Idol performance video count, and provided it's online with enough time there'd also be some streams coming in from the Ellen performance. Assuming at least 50% comes from the US it could all add up. Of course there's every likelihood its eventual streaming figure will be absolute crap next to wishful thinking which is why (for me) a huge sales figure is so desirable. Where is the Ellen stream? How would that count but not Facebook streams? |
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Mar 2, 2016 7:21:05 GMT -5
Facebook doesn't submit their numbers. Plus there's the autoplay aspect where a video counts as a play despite a user not actually stopping to watch it. L
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Az Paynter
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Post by Az Paynter on Mar 2, 2016 7:25:20 GMT -5
Okay, what about throwing in a fantasy number of 15 million streams into the equation? (I'm talking Spotify + Song/Music Video + Live Performance videos if the label finds a way to make them count) In my fantasy scenario the label would do what they needed to in order to make the Idol performance video count, and provided it's online with enough time there'd also be some streams coming in from the Ellen performance. Assuming at least 50% comes from the US it could all add up. Of course there's every likelihood its eventual streaming figure will be absolute crap next to wishful thinking which is why (for me) a huge sales figure is so desirable. Where is the Ellen stream? How would that count but not Facebook streams? My understanding is Ellen performances appear on Youtube after the fact. That's what I was referring to. |
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imbondz
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Post by imbondz on Mar 2, 2016 8:04:54 GMT -5
Curious if American Idol embedded the YouTube performance on their page would the millions of views have counted? If so that's ridiculously lame.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Mar 2, 2016 9:43:13 GMT -5
What would it look like with 300k? Kworb's original sales estimate accounted for 3 versions, and especially with the Ellen performance coming up I'm looking at a hopeful ballpark figure of 100k for the Idol version for 300k total. Do Ellen performances tend to help songs much? |
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Mar 2, 2016 10:13:40 GMT -5
Mediabase Top 40 Radio Adds
Bold = went for adds
131 FIFTH HARMONY Work From Home
60 TAYLOR SWIFT New Romantics
43 JUSTIN BIEBER Company
35 HAILEE STEINFELD Rock Bottom f/DNCE
31 GWEN STEFANI Make Me Like You
21 DJ SNAKE Middle f/Bipolar Sunshine
21 JAMES BAY Let It Go
20 ZENDAYA Something New f/Chris Brown
19 HALSEY Colors
17 ALESSIA CARA Wild Things
17 KELLY CLARKSON Piece By Piece
16 NATHAN SYKES Over And Over Again f/Ariana Grande
16 NELLY Die A Happy Man
14 ANDRA DAY Rise Up
14 ZARA LARSSON & MNEK Never Forget You
13 DILLON FRANCIS & KYGO Coming Over f/James Hersey
13 LUKAS GRAHAM 7 Years
12 TORY LANEZ Say It
10 SIA Cheap Thrills
10 TRYON Somebody To Love Me
9 COLDPLAY Adventure Of A Lifetime
9 SHAWN HOOK Sound Of Your Heart
7 ONE DIRECTION History
7 TROYE SIVAN Youth
6 FLUME Never Be Like You f/Kai
6 PANIC! AT THE DISCO Victorious
6 THE CHAINSMOKERS Don't Let Me Down f/Daya
5 GRACE You Don't Own Me f/G-Eazy
5 KYGO Stole The Show f/Parson James
5 MIKE POSNER I Took A Pill In Ibiza
5 RUTH B Lost Boy
4 JONAS BLUE Fast Car
4 RACHEL PLATTEN Stand By You
3 CHARLIE PUTH One Call Away
3 MAJOR LAZER Light It Up f/Nyla
3 MANIKA How Can I Love
2 ADDISON SCOTT I Came Alive
2 ANDRA DAY & NICK JONAS Rise Up
2 BEYONCE Formation
2 BRIGHT LIGHTS Runaway f/3lau
2 DAYA Sit Still, Look Pretty
2 DUKE DUMONT Ocean Drive
2 ELLE KING America's Sweetheart
2 LIL DICKY $ave Dat Money
2 MEGHAN TRAINOR No
2 RIHANNA Work f/Drake
2 ROBIN SCHULZ Sugar f/Francesco Yates
2 YO GOTTI Down In The DM
1 BELLY Might Not f/The Weeknd
1 CHRISTINA CHRISS I'm From The Way
1 DAVID COOK Broken Windows
1 DEMI LOVATO Stone Cold
1 DJ MUSTARD Whole Lotta Lovin' f/Travis Scott
1 DNCE Cake By The Ocean
1 DRAKE & FUTURE Jumpman
1 ELLIE GOULDING Something In The Way You Move
1 EMPIRE OF THE SUN Walking On A Dream
1 FLO RIDA My House
1 JASON DERULO Get Ugly
1 JEREMIH Oui
1 LADY GAGA Til It Happens To You
1 NEW DISTRICT Closer
1 PITBULL Bad Man f/Robin Thicke, Joe Perry & Travis Barker
1 REDFOO Lights Out
1 X AMBASSADORS Unsteady
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Mar 2, 2016 10:18:59 GMT -5
Company is a single? WHYYYYYY
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DJ General
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Post by DJ General on Mar 2, 2016 10:20:33 GMT -5
So most people are agreeing PBP will debut top 5?
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Future Captain
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Post by Future Captain on Mar 2, 2016 11:13:21 GMT -5
So most people are agreeing PBP will debut top 5? As much as I'd love ot to happen, it will be hard, I think. It will need huge like, 10 million+ streams and only god knows what will count for the streams. |
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MTSChart21
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Post by MTSChart21 on Mar 2, 2016 11:32:39 GMT -5
So most people are agreeing PBP will debut top 5? I have 2 predictions for it. My main prediction 3. Stressed Out (=) 4. My House (+1) 5. Piece By Piece (Debut) My secondary prediction (if the stats are a bit higher than I thought 3. Piece By Piece (Debut) 4. Stressed Out (-1) 5. My House (=) |
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Mar 2, 2016 11:45:39 GMT -5
Only if one version is drastically different from the original, in all aspects, would it be treated differently. The Idol Version of "Piece By Piece" has the same melody and lyrics as the original recording.
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Mar 2, 2016 12:00:10 GMT -5
Only if one version is drastically different from the original, in all aspects, would it be treated differently. The Idol Version of "Piece By Piece" has the same melody and lyrics as the original recording. A rule inspired by the infamous year of J.Lo and Ja Rule. :) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2016 12:00:23 GMT -5
Any bets on whether PBP will become a longer-term hit? It needs airplay - even if just at HAC and AC, RCA needs to work this like a proper single if they want this to last. Kelly herself can't do much more since she's due in six weeks. If it does die down soon, I would not be surprised to see it see another brief resurgence when her finale performance is aired in April. Curious if American Idol embedded the YouTube performance on their page would the millions of views have counted? If so that's ridiculously lame. Yep, an embedded Youtube video on the Facebook page would have counted. Yep, it's pretty lame, but them's the breaks. As a fan, I'm more than pleased with the top 10/possible top 5 peak it's about to get. Losing a huge chunk of streams to Facebook views is so rare, I doubt any rules will change over it and it's probably not worth Billboard's time to rectify it. Probably doesn't help that Kelly isn't really a chart obsessed type of artist (nor is her label chart obsessed on her behalf) and is just happy to see the great response. Another person/label would either be pushing BB to make a fast adjustment or would have had Idol replace the Facebook-embedded video with the Youtube one ASAP. What would it look like with 300k? Kworb's original sales estimate accounted for 3 versions, and especially with the Ellen performance coming up I'm looking at a hopeful ballpark figure of 100k for the Idol version for 300k total. Do Ellen performances tend to help songs much? I'm not sure there has ever been a time when one could isolate an Ellen performance from any other promo or buzz to know how she affects a song's sales or streaming. Most of the time, Ellen performances coincide with a person's promotional schedule, so it's more about repeat exposure I think. Plus the show airs at different times in different markets so you can't check Kworb at say, 3 pm EST and see if there's a sudden jump after a performance has aired. Any effect it has would be staggered. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2016 12:10:57 GMT -5
Early predictions: 1. Work (=) 2. Love Yourself (=) 3. Stressed Out (=) 4. My House (+1) 5. Piece By Piece (Debut) 6. Sorry (-2) 7. PILLOWTALK (-1) 8. Me, Myself & I (-1) 9. 7 Years (+3) 10. Hello (-2) [Sorry, guys] 11. Cake By The Ocean (-2) 12. Hands To Myself (-1) 13. Roses (-3) 14. I Took A Pill In Ibiza (+1) 15. One Call Away (-1) 16. Down In The DM (-3) 17. Work From Home (Debut) 18. Stitches (-2) 19. Don't (-2) 39. Never Forget You (+19) I think ITAPII will hit the top ten this week, but other than that I mostly agree with your prediction |
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Mar 2, 2016 13:08:12 GMT -5
I'm so ready for the Justin Bieber songs and Hello to leave the top 10. I like them all (Love Hello and Sorry), but it feels like they have been there for ages.
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Daniel Collins
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Post by Daniel Collins on Mar 2, 2016 14:10:37 GMT -5
2016/03/02
*** = dropped or added a format
1. JUSTIN BIEBER - Love Yourself: 197.371 (+1.497)
2. TWENTY ONE PILOTS - Stressed Out: 184.806 (-0.214)
3. JUSTIN BIEBER - Sorry: 156.492 (-1.424)
4. RIHANNA - Work f/Drake: 122.432 (+2.338)
5. FLO RIDA - My House: 121.068 (+2.124)
6. ADELE - Hello: 116.497 (-0.767)
7. G-EAZY - Me Myself And I f/Bebe Rexha: 104.329 (+2.281***)
8. THE CHAINSMOKERS - Roses f/Rozes: 101.381 (-0.482)
9. SHAWN MENDES - Stitches: 100.345 (+0.497)
10. SELENA GOMEZ - Hands To Myself: 87.725 (+0.810) ▲
11. DNCE - Cake By The Ocean: 87.580 (+0.655***)
12. ADELE - When We Were Young: 86.920 (-1.817) ▼
13. SELENA GOMEZ - Same Old Love: 82.683 (-1.976) ▲
14. THE WEEKND - In The Night: 81.594 (-3.605) ▼
15. CHARLIE PUTH - One Call Away: 76.303 (+1.413)
16. TAYLOR SWIFT - Wildest Dreams: 73.398 (-0.375)
17. ALESSIA CARA - Here: 71.157 (-1.905)
18. CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Heartbeat: 69.209 (+0.414) ▲
19. ELLE KING - Ex's and Oh's: 68.237 (-0.058) ▲
20. KEITH URBAN - Break On Me: 68.194 (-1.596) ▼[b.
21. RANDY HOUSER - We Went: 67.138 (+1.177) ▲[/b]
22. DAYA - Hide Away: 65.530 (-1.655) ▼
23. RACHEL PLATTEN - Stand By You: 65.177 (-0.618)
24. ZAYN - Pillowtalk: 64.861 (+1.350)
25. ZAC BROWN BAND - Beautiful Drug: 62.744 (+0.369)
26. MEGHAN TRAINOR - Like I'm Gonna Lose You: 60.009 (-0.440)
27. TORY LANEZ - Say It: 58.490 (-0.523)
28. MIKE POSNER - I Took A Pill In Ibiza: 57.489 (+1.497)
29. BRETT ELDREDGE - Drunk On Your Love: 55.844 (+0.634) ▲
30. COLE SWINDELL - You Should Be Here: 53.786 (+0.822) ▲
31. GRANGER SMITH - Backroad Song: 53.698 (-1.546) ▼
32. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 53.215 (-0.060) ▼
33. ELLIE GOULDING - On My Mind: 51.525 (-1.083)
34. CHASE BRYANT - Little Bit Of You: 51.348 (+0.518) ▲
35. FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Confession: 51.230 (+0.156)
36. DRAKE - Hotline Bling: 51.171 (-0.779) ▼
37. THOMAS RHETT - Die A Happy Man: 50.671 (-0.140) ▲
38. BRYSON TILLER - Don't: 50.626 (-0.371) ▼
39. ELLIE GOULDING - Something In The Way You Move: 50.106 (+0.791) ▲
40. LUKE BRYAN - Home Alone Tonight: 49.793 (-0.538) ▼
41. CHRIS BROWN - Back To Sleep: 49.465 (+0.112)
42. THE WEEKND - The Hills: 48.969 (-0.515***) ▼
43. ROBIN SCHULZ - Sugar f/Francesco Yates: 48.396 (+0.463)
44. LUKAS GRAHAM - 7 Years: 47.070 (+1.544) ▲
45. RASCAL FLATTS - I Like The Sound Of That: 46.977 (+0.647)
46. YO GOTTI - Down In The DM: 45.399 (+0.400) ▲
47. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 44.642 (-0.300) ▲
48. JEREMIH - Oui: 44.390 (-0.283) ▲
49. KELSEA BALLERINI - Dibs: 44.216 (-3.335) ▼
50. DRAKE & FUTURE - Jumpman: 43.515 (+0.235)
51. COLDPLAY - Adventure Of A Lifetime: 40.721 (-0.464)
52. OLD DOMINION - Snapback: 40.261 (+0.613) ▲
53. CHRIS STAPLETON - Nobody To Blame: 40.046 (+0.227)
54. BEYONCE - Formation: 39.732 (+1.166) ▲
55. FETTY WAP - Again: 39.559 (-0.887) ▼
56. MARK RONSON - Uptown Funk f/Bruno Mars: 39.488 (+0.226) ▼
57. MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 37.494 (-0.011)
58. MAREN MORRIS - My Church: 37.319 (+0.524) ▲
59. X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 37.172 (-0.205) ▼
60. JAMES BAY - Let It Go: 36.198 (+0.566)
61. DUSTIN LYNCH - Mind Reader: 35.015 (+0.453)
62. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 34.673 (+0.258)
63. R. CITY - Locked Away f/Adam Levine: 33.938 (-0.025) ▲
64. BROTHERS OSBORNE - Stay A Little Longer: 33.615 (-0.650) ▼
65. LEE BRICE - That Don't Sound Like You: 33.400 (+0.256) ▲
66. LOCASH - I Love This Life: 33.108 (-0.348) ▼
67. CHRIS YOUNG & CASSADEE POPE - Think Of You: 32.251 (+0.843) ▲
68. RACHEL PLATTEN - Fight Song: 31.838 (-0.366) ▼
69. DIERKS BENTLEY - Somewhere On A Beach: 31.203 (+0.478) ▲
70. ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 31.031 (-0.539) ▼
71. TRAVI$ SCOTT - Antidote: 30.081 (-0.863) ▼
72. J. COLE - No Role Modelz: 29.837 (+0.071)
73. FETTY WAP - 679 f/Remy Boyz...: 29.767 (+0.007)
74. DJ SNAKE - Middle f/Bipolar Sunshine: 29.600 (+1.256) ▲
75. SAM HUNT - Break Up In A Small Town: 29.154 (-0.470) ▼
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2016 14:45:32 GMT -5
10. SELENA GOMEZ - Hands To Myself: 87.725 (+0.810) ▲ 11. DNCE - Cake By The Ocean: 87.580 (+0.655***) 12. ADELE - When We Were Young: 86.920 (-1.817) ▼  Really? REALLY? I like the Selena song but come on! Especially when Stitches is gonna be in the top ten for another 619362 weeks |
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Really? REALLY?