Billboard Hot 100: 01/28/2017 (Shape Of You #1)

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Jan 13, 2017 15:58:25 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Jan 13, 2017 15:24:03 GMT -5 KeepDeanWeird said:

Is the Spotify chart on kworb.net accurate? kworb.net/spotify/country/us_daily.html It shows 10.3MM for first seven days in US and 47.85 for global

The 52 million figure came from an article off EW.com Either way kworb's ratio would mean the U.S. accounts for only about 1/5 of the Spotify streams. Interesting. If YouTube were similar, then it would only have like 7 million streams from there. To that end Billboard's proposed 20 million figure makes sense.

Based on similar articles that BB did to predict where Perfect Illusion and I Don't Wanna Live Forever, generally speaking, the numbers they estimate tend to be on the conservative side.

[forg]

For a long time I read the album as the letter x and not multiply

Anyway I'm hoping he really debuts at #1

The new Chainsmokers has a nice beat but not as catchy as Closer

[85la]

Just a thought: maybe Shape of You's portion of streams in the U.S. are low because he's not actually an American artist? He's British, so I know it's still English language, so it might not be much of a factor, but just a thought. Anyway, if Billboard, which is very conservative and safe about their predictions, is saying it "might debut at #1," it will debut at #1.

As for Paris, the first thing that came to my mind was that it screams Rihanna's Diamonds. Then after a second listen, it kind of sounds like Diamonds meets Can't Believe It by T-Pain. Either way, it's actually not a bad song, I think I might like it even better than Closer.

[jenglisbe]

Jan 14, 2017 0:55:11 GMT -5 85la said:

Just a thought: maybe Shape of You's portion of streams in the U.S. are low because he's not actually an American artist? He's British, so I know it's still English language, so it might not be much of a factor, but just a thought. Anyway, if Billboard, which is very conservative and safe about their predictions, is saying it "might debut at #1," it will debut at #1.

Oh I'm not surprised his numbers skew more outside the U.S. than some other artists, but if the numbers we have to this point are true, they skew to a really large degree.

[ry4n]

Well considering that Shape Of You has debuted at #1 in basically every country to release their chart so far, with Castle at #2 or just below it, I don't think it's that far fetched. We're looking at monstrous world wide hits here. The biggest first week debut since Hello.

[Deleted]

Now that SOY's sales estimate has been raised to 270k, and BAB has been lowered to 90k, is that enough to make up for the youtube gap? SOY is ahead in both airplay and Spotify, so it's probably pretty close.

[rimetm]

Well, lessee here...

YouTube data complete, Spotify data complete, 4/3 weight to compensate for the rest of services, Sales final estimate, Radio extrapolated from data up to Friday

Shape of You: 270,000 sales + 20,680,893 streams + 64,000,000 audience impressions = ~51,750 points
Bad and Boujee: 90,000 sales + 40,939,013 streams + 36,000,000 audience impressions = ~47,018 points

Looking good for a #1 debut this week!

[Deleted]

Wow there was never a double debut by the same artist on the top 10 before? And the first time that it will occur will actually be on the top 5, 4, or even 3? Impressive.

[bccole]

Jan 13, 2017 13:45:26 GMT -5 flextamcsignals said:

It would be crazy if there were back-to-back #1 debuts, although it has happened before. "Exhale (Shoop Shoop)" by Whitney Houston and "One Sweet Day" by Mariah Carey and Boys II Men debuted at #1 in consecutive weeks.

Actually, there were three #1 debuts in a row. Fantasy (8 weeks), Exhale (1 week), then One Sweet Day (16 weeks). And at that time four of the last #1s had debuted there. Michael Jackson's You Are Not Alone was the first #1. It only spent one week there before Coolio's "Gangster's Paradise" moved up to #1 for 3 weeks. Then came Fantasy/Exhale/One Sweet Day.

[georgetherunner314]

Ed Sheeran's got this for sure!

Rank	Song	Sales	Airplay	Streams	Points
1	Shape Of You	270	55	22.0	52,000
2	Bad And Boujee	90	31	37.0	43,300
3/4	Castle On The Hill	187	5	14.5	32,200
3/4	Black Beatles	49	98	21.2	32,200
5	Starboy	50	90	20.4	30,800
6	Closer	43	116	17.3	30,000
7	24K Magic	62	99	12.7	26,500
8/9	Don't Wanna Know	41	154	7.6	25,300
8/9	Side To Side	35	112	12.8	25,000
10	Bad Things	54	90	12.3	24,500

[bccole]

Jan 14, 2017 23:09:30 GMT -5 georgetherunner314 said:

Ed Sheeran's got this for sure!

Rank	Song	Sales	Airplay	Streams	Points
1	Shape Of You	270	55	22.0	52,000
2	Bad And Boujee	90	31	37.0	43,300
3/4	Castle On The Hill	187	5	14.5	32,200
3/4	Black Beatles	49	98	21.2	32,200
5	Starboy	50	90	20.4	30,800
6	Closer	43	116	17.3	30,000
7	24K Magic	62	99	12.7	26,500
8/9	Don't Wanna Know	41	154	7.6	25,300
8/9	Side To Side	35	112	12.8	25,000
10	Bad Things	54	90	12.3	24,500

I think Closer and SB will be close, as SB is losing airplay faster than Closer. Given the early ITunes activity for the following week, Closer will re-jump SB the following week, should SB rank above Closer on this week's chart.

[atg]

Do u guys think that Paris will be the next #1

[jayhawk1117]

Jan 15, 2017 0:20:52 GMT -5 atg said:

Do u guys think that Paris will be the next #1

[brk]It'll be Shape of You abr Bad and Boujee for a while probably so anything could happen. But it has potential.

[Au$tin]

Shape of You is already about to take back #1 on iTunes, and that's without the second version combined. Paris also "only" opened at #5 on Spotify, and usually the first day is the biggest day of the first week. Its airplay will be great for a first week, but its gonna be behind Shape of You on that as well, so... a #1 debut for Paris is out of the question at the moment, barring some bizarre turn around or surge in streams, because at the pace it's going, it'll be behind Shape of You in all three metrics and behind Bad & Boujee (also Black Beatles) in two.

[Deleted]

This is going to be the first time that at least 4 different songs spend consecutively 1 week atop the chart since 2010:
11/13 We R Who We R
11/20 What's My Name
11/27 Like A G6
12/4 Only Girl (In The World)
12/11 Raise Your Glass
12/18 Firework

[truemusicreviews]

How come "Shape Of You" just plummeted on radio?

[truemusicreviews]

Also, "Paris" is god-awful.

[Au$tin]

Jan 15, 2017 1:19:00 GMT -5 truemusicreviews said:

How come "Shape Of You" just plummeted on radio?

It didn't. Today is just it's eighth day. All major releases see a decrease like this on their eighth days.

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 from 55, 50, 45, and 40 years ago:

January 27, 1962

01 02 Peppermint Twist (Part 1) - Joey Dee & The Starlighters (1st of 3 weeks at #1)
02 01 The Twist - Chubby Checker
03 05 I Know (You Don't Love Me No More) - Barbara George
04 04 Can't Help Falling In Love - Elvis Presley
05 10 Norman - Sue Thompson
06 03 The Lion Sleeps Tonight - The Tokens
07 09 When I Fall In Love - The Lettermen
08 18 The Wanderer - Dion
09 15 Baby It's You - The Shirelles
10 07 Walk On By - Leroy Van Dyke


January 28, 1967

01 01 I'm a Believer - The Monkees (5th of 7 weeks at #1)
02 03 Tell It Like It Is - Aaron Neville
03 02 Snoopy Vs. The Red Baron - The Royal Guardsmen
04 07 Georgy Girl - The New Seekers
05 05 Words Of Love - The Mamas & The Papas
06 06 Standing In The Shadows Of Love - The Four Tops
07 04 Good Thing - Paul Revere & The Raiders feat. Mark Lindsey
08 09 Nashville Cats - The Lovin' Spoonful
09 15 Kind Of a Drag - The Buckinghams
10 13 (We Ain't Got) Nothin' Yet - The Blue Magoos


January 29, 1972

01 01 American Pie (Parts 1 & 2) - Don McLean (3rd of 4 weeks at #1)
02 02 Brand New Key - Melanie
03 03 Let's Stay Together - Al Green
04 04 Sunshine - Jonathan Edwards
05 05 Day After Day - Badfinger
06 08 Clean Up Woman - Betty Wright
07 06 Scorpio - Dennis Coffey & The Detroit Guitar Band
08 11 Never Been To Spain - Three Dog Night
09 09 You Are Everything - The Stylistics
10 10 Sugar Daddy - The Jackson 5


January 29, 1977

01 02 Car Wash - Rose Royce (1st and only week at #1)
02 01 I Wish - Stevie Wonder
03 04 Dazz - Brick
04 03 You Make Me Feel Like Dancing - Leo Sayer
05 06 Hot Line - The Sylvers
06 07 New Kid In Town - The Eagles
07 10 Torn Between Two Lovers - Mary MacGregor
08 09 Blinded By The Light - Manfred Mann's Earth Band
09 20 Love Theme From A Star Is Born (Evergreen) - Barbra Streisand
10 12 Walk This Way - Aerosmith

[Glove Slap]

Jan 15, 2017 11:30:34 GMT -5 Soulsista said:

01 02 Car Wash - Rose Royce (1st and only week at #1)

Iconic

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 from 35, 30, 25, and 20 years ago:

January 30, 1982

01 04 I Can't Go For That (No Can Do) - Daryl Hall & John Oates (1st and only week at #1)
02 02 Waiting For a Girl Like You - Foreigner
03 03 Centerfold - The J. Geils Band
04 01 Physical - Olivia Newton-John
05 05 Harden My Heart - Quarterflash
06 06 Leather And Lace - Stevie Nicks w/Don Henley
07 07 Turn Your Love Around - George Benson
08 08 Let's Groove - Earth, Wind & Fire
09 10 The Sweetest Thing (I've Ever Known) - Juice Newton
10 11 Hooked On Classics (Medley) - Louis Clark & The Royal Philharmonic Orchestra


January 31, 1987

01 01 At This Moment - Billy Vera & The Beaters (2nd and final week at #1)
02 04 Open Your Heart - Madonna
03 02 C'est La Vie - Robbie Nevil
04 06 Land Of Confusion - Genesis
05 08 Change Of Heart - Cyndi Lauper
06 05 Control - Janet Jackson
07 07 Someday - Glass Tiger
08 03 Shake You Down - Gregory Abbott
09 15 Livin' On a Prayer - Bon Jovi
10 12 Touch Me (I Want Your Body) - Samantha Fox


February 1, 1992

01 03 Don't Let The Sun Go Down On Me - George Michael & Elton John (1st and only week at #1)
02 07 I Love Your Smile - Shanice
03 01 All 4 Love - Color Me Badd
04 06 Diamonds And Pearls - Prince & The New Power Generation
05 02 Can't Let Go - Mariah Carey
06 10 I'm Too Sexy - Right Said Fred
07 05 Finally - CeCe Peniston
08 08 Smells Like Teen Spirit - Nirvana
09 04 Black Or White - Michael Jackson
10 12 Tell Me What You Want Me To Do - Tevin Campbell


January 25, 1997

01 01 Un-Break My Heart - Toni Braxton (8th of 11 weeks at #1)
02 02 Don't Let Go (Love) - En Vogue
03 03 I Believe I Can Fly - R. Kelly
04 04 Nobody - Keith Sweat feat. Athena Cage
05 05 I Believe In You And Me - Whitney Houston
06 06 No Diggity - Blackstreet feat. Dr. Dre
07 07 Mouth - Merril Bainbridge
08 08 I'm Still In Love With You - New Edition
09 09 It's All Coming Back To Me Now - Celine Dion
10 11 If It Makes You Happy - Sheryl Crow

11 NE Wannabe - The Spice Girls

[jayhawk1117]

Jan 15, 2017 0:56:45 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Shape of You is already about to take back #1 on iTunes, and that's without the second version combined. Paris also "only" opened at #5 on Spotify, and usually the first day is the biggest day of the first week. Its airplay will be great for a first week, but its gonna be behind Shape of You on that as well, so... a #1 debut for Paris is out of the question at the moment, barring some bizarre turn around or surge in streams, because at the pace it's going, it'll be behind Shape of You in all three metrics and behind Bad & Boujee (also Black Beatles) in two.

who thought a number debut was in the cards anyway?

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 Flashback:

January 26, 2002

01 01 U Got It Bad - Usher (3rd of 6 weeks at #1)
02 02 How You Remind Me - Nickelback
03 05 Always On Time - Ja Rule feat. Ashanti
04 04 Get The Party Started - P!nk
05 06 My Sacrifice - Creed
06 03 Family Affair - Mary J. Blige
07 07 Whenever, Wherever - Shakira
08 09 A Woman's Worth - Alicia Keys
09 11 Wherever You Will Go - The Calling
10 08 Hero - Enrique Iglesias

16 39 Ain't It Funny - Jennifer Lopez feat. Ja Rule


January 27, 2007

01 01 Irreplaceable - Beyonce (7th of 10 weeks at #1)
02 02 I Wanna Love You - Akon feat. Snoop Dogg
03 03 Fergalicious - Fergie feat. will.i.am
04 05 Say It Right - Nelly Furtado
05 04 Smack That - Akon feat. Eminem
06 08 We Fly High - Jim Jones
07 07 How To Save a Life - The Fray
08 06 My Love - Justin Timberlake feat. T.I.
09 09 Welcome To The Black Parade - My Chemical Romance
10 10 It Ends Tonight - The All-American Rejects


January 28, 2012

01 01 We Found Love - Rihanna feat. Calvin Harris (10th and final week at #1)
02 04 Set Fire To The Rain - Adele
03 05 Good Feeling - Flo Rida
04 03 It Will Rain - Bruno Mars
05 02 Sexy And I Know It - LMFAO
06 06 The One That Got Away - Katy Perry
07 07 N***as In Paris - Jay-Z & Kanye West
08 23 Rack City - Tyga
09 11 Young, Wild & Free - Snoop Dogg & Wiz Khalifa feat. Bruno Mars
10 25 Turn Me On - David Guetta feat. Nicki Minaj


January 30, 2016

01 01 Sorry - Justin Bieber (2nd of 3 weeks at #1)
02 02 Hello - Adele
03 03 Love Yourself - Justin Bieber
04 05 Stressed Out - Twenty One Pilots
05 06 Same Old Love - Selena Gomez
06 09 Here - Alessia Cara
07 04 Hotline Bling - Drake
08 07 Stitches - Shawn Mendes
09 10 Like I'm Gonna Lose You - Meghan Trainor feat. John Legend
10 08 What Do You Mean? - Justin Bieber

[HolidayGuy]

"That damn Hall & Oates," Foreigner must have been thinking in 1982- sitting at No. 2 for nine weeks behind "Physical," and then to see that single jump from 4-1.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Jan 14, 2017 21:53:58 GMT -5 @pete said:

Wow there was never a double debut by the same artist on the top 10 before? And the first time that it will occur will actually be on the top 5, 4, or even 3? Impressive.

Not before. According to the article posted by BB predicting that Shape of You might debut at #1 in the Hot 100, that'd be the first time it has been accomplished by the same artist during the same week.

[Au$tin]

Jan 15, 2017 12:20:04 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Jan 15, 2017 0:56:45 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Shape of You is already about to take back #1 on iTunes, and that's without the second version combined. Paris also "only" opened at #5 on Spotify, and usually the first day is the biggest day of the first week. Its airplay will be great for a first week, but its gonna be behind Shape of You on that as well, so... a #1 debut for Paris is out of the question at the moment, barring some bizarre turn around or surge in streams, because at the pace it's going, it'll be behind Shape of You in all three metrics and behind Bad & Boujee (also Black Beatles) in two.

who thought a number debut was in the cards anyway?

Some people were contemplating whether or not it could in this and last week's threads.

[renfield75]

Jan 15, 2017 13:15:02 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

"That damn Hall & Oates," Foreigner must have been thinking in 1982- sitting at No. 2 for nine weeks behind "Physical," and then to see that single jump from 4-1.

I feel bad for Foreigner about that (although they did get a number one later with "I Want To Know What Love Is") but......"I Can't Go For That" is SUUUUUUCH a jam!

[kingofpain]

Ha! hooked on classics! Who could forget that top 10 smash! It's up there with Stars On 45!

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Jan 15, 2017 18:40:02 GMT -5 kingofpain said:

Ha! hooked on classics! Who could forget that top 10 smash! It's up there with Stars On 45!

A few other good medleys: Star Wars Theme / Cantina Band (Medley) by Meco which was actually #1, Swing the Mood by Jive Bunny & The Mastermixers, The Beatles Movie Medley and The Beach Boys Medley, the last 3 in the Top 20.

[kingofpain]

Hooked on Swing by Larry Elgart was one of my favorites!