Billboard Hot 100: 01/28/2017 (Shape Of You #1)

[rimetm]

I swear, something's off with Shape of You's US YT numbers. 3 days left to file into the system, and it only says it received 3.1 out of 27 million worldwide streams up to the filed date? I'm pretty sure the US market share should be bigger than that at least... Still, going off that, here are the predictions:

NOTE: Using 4/7 days of YT data extrapolated, complete Spotify info, Monday sales estimate, and Thursday's radio extrapolated.

Shape of You: 16,403,750 streams + 247,000 sales + 40,000,000 audience impressions = ~43,479
Bad and Boujee: 35,702,442 streams + 110,000 sales + 34,000,000 audience impressions = ~44,569

Yeah, unless something turned out to be inaccurately reported or I extrapolated wrong (especially possible since I tried to compensate for 8th day effect on Shape of You), it's looking like this race is too close to call again...

[divasummer]

Wasn't "Rather Be" a hit in the US?
I thought it did well considering it didn't sound like a typical US Dance hit.
I think at first listen "Rockabye" sounds like it do great here in the US.
I love it and have been jamming to it since it was released to ITunes.

[macabyan]

Paris is now #1 on iTunes.

Crazy how its only January and we're already looking into having 5 different number ones! If this can happen every week, God bless 2017 my fave year ever

[flextamcsignals]

It would be crazy if there were back-to-back #1 debuts, although it has happened before. "Exhale (Shoop Shoop)" by Whitney Houston and "One Sweet Day" by Mariah Carey and Boys II Men debuted at #1 in consecutive weeks.

[jenglisbe]

Jan 13, 2017 9:43:38 GMT -5 rimetm said:

I swear, something's off with Shape of You's US YT numbers. 3 days left to file into the system, and it only says it received 3.1 out of 27 million worldwide streams up to the filed date? I'm pretty sure the US market share should be bigger than that at least...

I have been confused by this as well.

[jayhawk1117]

Jan 13, 2017 10:24:49 GMT -5 divasummer said:

Wasn't "Rather Be" a hit in the US?
I thought it did well considering it didn't sound like a typical US Dance hit.
I think at first listen "Rockabye" sounds like it do great here in the US.
I love it and have been jamming to it since it was released to ITunes.

it was pretty much the biggest song of 2014 worldwide but had a similar run to Starving by being in the higher top 20 but actually made the top ten for 1 week at 10.

[jayhawk1117]

Jan 13, 2017 13:52:55 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Jan 13, 2017 9:43:38 GMT -5 rimetm said:

I swear, something's off with Shape of You's US YT numbers. 3 days left to file into the system, and it only says it received 3.1 out of 27 million worldwide streams up to the filed date? I'm pretty sure the US market share should be bigger than that at least...

I have been confused by this as well.

yeah I have no idea how the US is only just over 10%

[jenglisbe]

Meanwhile "Shape Of You" had over 52 million streams on Spotify its first week. Obviously not all of those are U.S., but surely at least 10-15 million of them are?

[KeepDeanWeird]

Jan 13, 2017 15:12:31 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Meanwhile "Shape Of You" had over 52 million streams on Spotify its first week. Obviously not all of those are U.S., but surely at least 10-15 million of them are?

Is the Spotify chart on kworb.net accurate? kworb.net/spotify/country/us_daily.html It shows 10.3MM for first seven days in US and 47.85 for global

[rimetm]

They are accurate, sourced from spotifycharts, an official subsite of Spotify.

[velaxti]

I personally don't like Rather Be.

However, it did well in the US. It's difficult to get up the charts there, being #10 in the US is like being #5 in most other countries (I know Rather Be did much better than that in most places, but bear in mind it's also not the kind of song that would smash in the US so its success is very impressive imo). Also, the song got enough exposure. If it was meant to be a #1 it would've happened imo. There are some songs you can say would've been massive but got so few radio spins that they missed out on becoming well known, but millions of people in the US know Rather Be, if it was really meant to be a #1 smash it would've spread imo.

In the UK only after its first few spins on Radio 1 it was already getting huge buzz on the Internet, and that was probably a couple of months before it was released. Granted Radio 1 is a huge station which reaches the entire country (I don't think there's anything like that in the US), but the point is only a few hundred thousand people have to listen to the song to set it off running. After that people were searching it out on Youtube, sharing it on Twitter, probably requesting it more on the radio, playing it to their friends, Shazam-ing it, etc. Rather Be had enough exposure for it to spread like that in the US, it just, didn't. But it did well for what it is imo. Of course discounts, use in more adverts and TV performances would've got it a few places higher, but I don't think it would've ever been a One Dance-sized hit in the US like it was in some other countries. If it could've been, it would've been. I think it reached maybe 80% (or more) of its full potential.

And yes, Ed Sheeran's Youtube numbers are weird. I hope it doesn't effect the Hot 100 (messy Youtube figures have caused problems in the past with songs like White Iverson and that Meek Mill/Nicki Minaj song that was a hit a while ago, but hopefully they're on top of that now).

[Gary]

Ed Sheeran in 'Shape' for Possible No. 1 Hot 100 Debut Next Week

By Gary Trust | January 13, 2017 1:25 PM EST
Ed Sheeran



Ed Sheeran's new single "Shape of You" is set to storm next week's Billboard Hot 100 chart (dated Jan. 28), possibly with a debut at No. 1. His other new track, "Castle on the Hill," could also arrive in the top 10.

The songs, released Jan. 6 on Atlantic Records, are from Sheeran's third studio album ÷ (pronounced "Divide"), due March 3.

Industry forecasters suggest that "Shape" could sell 225,000 downloads or more in its first week (ending Jan. 12), easily making it the best-selling song of the week. Further, "Shape" should also draw roughly 50 million in radio audience and 20 million U.S. streams for the week. (Each song is accompanied by an official lyric video so far.) All combined, the song should challenge for the Hot 100's top spot upon its arrival. Currently, Migos' "Bad and Boujee," featuring Lil Uzi Vert, is in its first week at No. 1, having lifted 2-1 on the Jan. 21 Hot 100.

Meanwhile, "Castle" could sell 160,000 downloads or more in its first week and boast 14 million U.S. streams, while adding a nominal radio audience sum. Its combined activity could translate to a top 10 debut for the song on the Hot 100.

Read more: Ed Sheeran Is First Artist to Debut at Nos. 1 & 2 on Billboard + Twitter Top Tracks Chart

Notably, Atlantic is promoting the pop/trop-house "Shape" to pop and adult pop radio, while the U2/Coldplay-reminiscent "Castle" is being worked to the more niche alternative and adult alternative formats. (Following its first three days of airplay, "Shape" launched at No. 41 on the Jan. 21-dated Radio Songs airplay chart. It could reach the upper half of the Jan. 28 tally. Radio Songs follows a Monday-Sunday tracking period, while sales and streams are measured Friday-Thursday.)

Should "Shape" start atop the Hot 100, Sheeran would earn his first No. 1 on the chart as an artist; he co-wrote Justin Bieber's "Love Yourself," which spent two weeks on top in February 2016 and went on to become the No. 1 title on the 2016 year-end Hot 100.

And, if "Castle" begins in the top 10, joining "Shape" in the region from the start, Sheeran would be the first artist to debut two songs in the top 10 simultaneously in the Hot 100's 58-year history.

Check Billboard.com Tuesday (Jan. 17, a day later than usual due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day Monday), when highlights of the new Hot 100's top 10 will post. The entire chart, and all rankings, will update the following day.

[Gary]

Note

The first double-debut in the top 10 is on the way

[jenglisbe]

Jan 13, 2017 15:24:03 GMT -5 KeepDeanWeird said:

Jan 13, 2017 15:12:31 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Meanwhile "Shape Of You" had over 52 million streams on Spotify its first week. Obviously not all of those are U.S., but surely at least 10-15 million of them are?

Is the Spotify chart on kworb.net accurate? kworb.net/spotify/country/us_daily.html It shows 10.3MM for first seven days in US and 47.85 for global

The 52 million figure came from an article off EW.com Either way kworb's ratio would mean the U.S. accounts for only about 1/5 of the Spotify streams. Interesting. If YouTube were similar, then it would only have like 7 million streams from there. To that end Billboard's proposed 20 million figure makes sense.

[badrobot]

Damn. Didn't realize no one had ever had a double top ten debut. Beyoncé would've had her album not coincided with Prince's death. And prince had dual top ten re-entries right?

[NeRD]

I hate when Billboard uses part a song's title in the headline. So corny.

[Gary]

Jan 13, 2017 16:12:04 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Damn. Didn't realize no one had ever had a double top ten debut. Beyoncé would've had her album not coincided with Prince's death. And prince had dual top ten re-entries right?

A re-entry is not a debut.

[Au$tin]

Jan 13, 2017 16:16:37 GMT -5 Gary said:

Jan 13, 2017 16:12:04 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Damn. Didn't realize no one had ever had a double top ten debut. Beyoncé would've had her album not coincided with Prince's death. And prince had dual top ten re-entries right?

A re-entry is not a debut.

No, but it is a cool fact that was being pointed out and nothing more.

[renfield75]

Jan 13, 2017 16:20:02 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Jan 13, 2017 16:16:37 GMT -5 Gary said:

A re-entry is not a debut.

No, but it is a cool fact that was being pointed out and nothing more.

It still doesn't apply here though..."Purple Rain" re-entered at #17 and "When Doves Cry" at #20, then both moved into the top ten the next week after the full week of sales after his passing. Neither song re-entered the Hot 100 within the top ten.

[renfield75]

Since Ed Sheeran has named his albums +, x, and ÷ do you think he will call his eventual greatest hits album ">"? Ha ha ha

EDIT: Oops, sorry for the back-to-back posts!

[Gary]

Jan 13, 2017 16:48:59 GMT -5 renfield75 said:

Since Ed Sheeran has named his albums +, x, and ÷ do you think he will call his eventual greatest hits album ">"? Ha ha ha

EDIT: Oops, sorry for the back-to-back posts!

Oh that is funny - bot impossible, I didn't realize he was using the 'divide' symbol.  The next one in line would be '-' but an album called 'minus' would not sell well, nor would 'less than' or '<' so that is the only major math symbol left.

[Gary]

Jan 13, 2017 15:44:58 GMT -5 Gary said:

Ed Sheeran in 'Shape' for Possible No. 1 Hot 100 Debut Next Week

By Gary Trust | January 13, 2017 1:25 PM EST
Ed Sheeran



Ed Sheeran's new single "Shape of You" is set to storm next week's Billboard Hot 100 chart (dated Jan. 28), possibly with a debut at No. 1. His other new track, "Castle on the Hill," could also arrive in the top 10.

The songs, released Jan. 6 on Atlantic Records, are from Sheeran's third studio album ÷ (pronounced "Divide"), due March 3.

Industry forecasters suggest that "Shape" could sell 225,000 downloads or more in its first week (ending Jan. 12), easily making it the best-selling song of the week. Further, "Shape" should also draw roughly 50 million in radio audience and 20 million U.S. streams for the week. (Each song is accompanied by an official lyric video so far.) All combined, the song should challenge for the Hot 100's top spot upon its arrival. Currently, Migos' "Bad and Boujee," featuring Lil Uzi Vert, is in its first week at No. 1, having lifted 2-1 on the Jan. 21 Hot 100.

Meanwhile, "Castle" could sell 160,000 downloads or more in its first week and boast 14 million U.S. streams, while adding a nominal radio audience sum. Its combined activity could translate to a top 10 debut for the song on the Hot 100.

Read more: Ed Sheeran Is First Artist to Debut at Nos. 1 & 2 on Billboard + Twitter Top Tracks Chart

Notably, Atlantic is promoting the pop/trop-house "Shape" to pop and adult pop radio, while the U2/Coldplay-reminiscent "Castle" is being worked to the more niche alternative and adult alternative formats. (Following its first three days of airplay, "Shape" launched at No. 41 on the Jan. 21-dated Radio Songs airplay chart. It could reach the upper half of the Jan. 28 tally. Radio Songs follows a Monday-Sunday tracking period, while sales and streams are measured Friday-Thursday.)

Should "Shape" start atop the Hot 100, Sheeran would earn his first No. 1 on the chart as an artist; he co-wrote Justin Bieber's "Love Yourself," which spent two weeks on top in February 2016 and went on to become the No. 1 title on the 2016 year-end Hot 100.

And, if "Castle" begins in the top 10, joining "Shape" in the region from the start, Sheeran would be the first artist to debut two songs in the top 10 simultaneously in the Hot 100's 58-year history.

Check Billboard.com Tuesday (Jan. 17, a day later than usual due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day Monday), when highlights of the new Hot 100's top 10 will post. The entire chart, and all rankings, will update the following day.

The bolded part for those posting on Monday

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Unless it was called "take away" (depending on how common that term is used for minus, I guess. Bacck in elementary school, we called it 'take away'.) As a song title, that works so why not as an album title too eh?

[ry4n]

Why stick with arithmetic symbols when there's π, φ, e, i, ∞, ∆, θ, ∑, ∏, σ, !, ∫

[Verisimilitude]

Final on demand audio streaming numbers from BuzzAngle/Hits Daily Double:

1 ED SHEERAN SHAPE OF YOU 17,073,057
4 ED SHEERAN CASTLE ON THE HILL 11,064,488

So Billboard predicts only 3 million YouTube streams for each song?

[badrobot]

Jan 13, 2017 16:16:37 GMT -5 Gary said:

Jan 13, 2017 16:12:04 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Damn. Didn't realize no one had ever had a double top ten debut. Beyoncé would've had her album not coincided with Prince's death. And prince had dual top ten re-entries right?

A re-entry is not a debut.

Yup, that's why I used the word re-entry and not debut. No idea what the point of your post was as I was quite clear.

But another poster pointed out that Prince re-entered lower anyway. Thanks renfield75 for answering my question! :)

[Gary]

Jan 13, 2017 17:51:50 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Jan 13, 2017 16:16:37 GMT -5 Gary said:

A re-entry is not a debut.

Yup, that's why I used the word re-entry and not debut. No idea what the point of your post was as I was quite clear.

But another poster pointed out that Prince re-entered lower anyway. Thanks renfield75 for answering my question! :)

2 different things. Both cool when or if they happen.

Not sure what the current point is, so moving on. If you were offended by my post I apologize.

[g8erboi]

Jan 13, 2017 17:00:30 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Unless it was called "take away" (depending on how common that term is used for minus, I guess. Bacck in elementary school, we called it 'take away'.) As a song title, that works so why not as an album title too eh?

or what about "subtract"... lol

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Jan 13, 2017 15:46:47 GMT -5 Gary said:

Note

The first double-debut in the top 10 is on the way

It should be noted that last year, both Beyonce and J. Cole came close to doing that feat when their albums were released, but their second lowest debuting single that week was #1. Taylor Swift debuted in the Top 10 in consecutive weeks with tracks from her albums Speak Now (Speak Now, followed by Back to December) and Red (Begin Again, followed Red and finally I Knew You Were Trouble) which previewed the albums' release.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Jan 13, 2017 16:48:59 GMT -5 renfield75 said:

Since Ed Sheeran has named his albums +, x, and ÷ do you think he will call his eventual greatest hits album ">"? Ha ha ha

EDIT: Oops, sorry for the back-to-back posts!

I came up with the thought, when he tweeted about ÷, that once he ran out of arithmetic operators, he'd start to use other mathematical operators such as ² or square root.