Billboard Hot 100: 04/22/2017

[ry4n]

That iTunes lead is nuts. I think this confirms that Harry was always the biggest name in the group.

[.It'sGriffin]

But... Today doesn't count, right? Those numbers may drop tommorow. I would say that it depends on HUMBLE. If it'll keep it's stats, then there may be a close chase. But I'd say that it may just be SJLT 2.0, and I'll predict that it'll go like this: 99-3-4-11-6

My predictions for like the next 5 weeks:
1: SOY
2: TWIL
3: HUMBLE.
4: iSpy
5: SJLT
6: IFIC
7: BLABR
8: TV
9: B&B
10: Passionfruit

1: TWIL
2: SOY
3: SOTT
4: iSpy
5: HUMBLE.
6: SJLT
7: IFIC
8: TV
9: Passionfruit
10: Stay

1: TWIL
2: HUMBLE.
3: iSpy
4: SOTT
5: SOY
6: SJLT
7: Stay
8: IFIC
9: Passionfruit
10: BLABR

1: TWIL
2: HUMBLE
3: iSpy
4: SOY
5: SJLT
6: Stay
7: Passionfruit
8: SOTT
9: Mask Off
10: IFIC

1: HUMBLE.
2: iSpy
3: TWIL
4: Passionfruit
5: SOTT
6: Stay
7: SJLT
8: SOY
9: Abel's next single/Issues
10: IAM

[jenglisbe]

"That's What I Like" and others are already gaining back on "Sign of the Times."

[bigbertha]

Apr 7, 2017 15:20:35 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

"That's What I Like" and others are already gaining back on "Sign of the Times."

Slowly though. He lost less than 1% of his lead in this update. And TWIl is still only at .1119

[jenglisbe]

Apr 7, 2017 15:34:07 GMT -5 bigbertha said:

Apr 7, 2017 15:20:35 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

"That's What I Like" and others are already gaining back on "Sign of the Times."

Slowly though. He lost less than 1% of his lead in this update. And TWIl is still only at .1119

Yeah but this is still day 1. It shouldn't already be losing ground back.

I'd still like to see the source for the sales figures thrown around. "That's What I Like" sold maybe 75k last week. That means close to 11k her day on average. If it sold 10% today of what Styles' single did (as the popularity bars show at this moment), that would mean 110k for today. That doesn't match with the figures some had where Styles' sold 120k or whatever this morning alone.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

I think most people use Digital Sales Data if not kworb. The first one tries to guess the numbers based on a statistical model for the last 24 hours and matches the fractions that kworb shows for its pop bars. For Sign of the Times, I've been checking all they and the numbers having been fluctuating all over the place for it, going from around 120k up to 140k and back down to 120k which is illogical if the first 24 hours are accounted for. The sales should accumulate for the Sign of the Times during its first 24 hours, while for the rest of the songs that were already in iTunes, their values should move based on the last 24 hours. kworb's weekly estimates have also been off for this types of songs as well. So we'll see.

[Gary]

Kendrick Lamar Aiming for Hot 100's Top 5 & His Biggest Hit as a Lead With 'Humble'



Kendrick Lamar's "Humble" is set to blast onto next week's Billboard Hot 100 (dated April 22) in the top five and perhaps pose a challenge to the chart's current No. 1, Ed Sheeran's "Shape of You," which has reigned for 10 weeks so far.

Following its first full week of activity, industry forecasters suggest that "Humble" could sell more than 125,000 downloads in the week ending April 6. When finalized streaming (likely in the range of 40-50 million U.S. streams in the tracking week ending April 6), propelled by the track's official video, and radio airplay (10-15 million in all-format audience in the week ending April 9) are added to the mix -- as the Hot 100 blends U.S. streaming, airplay and sales data -- the track should start in the top five on the April 22-dated tally.





"Humble" should arrive as the top-selling and most-streamed song of the week, while Sheeran's "Shape" should remain the week's most-heard song on radio. Per current data and projections, Sheeran's wide lead in airplay could offset Lamar's leads in sales and streams, keeping "Shape" at No. 1 on the Hot 100.


Highlights of next week's Hot 100 will post on Billboard.com on Monday (April 10), with all charts updating online Tuesday, as always.



With the expected lofty launch for "Humble" on the Hot 100, Lamar will land his first top 10 as a lead artist, following three top 10s in featured roles. A$AP Rocky's "F**kin Problems," featuring Drake, 2 Chainz and Lamar, hit No. 8 in 2013; Taylor Swift's Lamar-assisted "Bad Blood" topped the June 6, 2015-dated Hot 100; and Lamar recently rose to No. 6 as a guest on Maroon 5's "Don't Wanna Know."

"Humble" introduces Lamar's new LP, which may be called simply ALBUM, expected next Friday, April 14.

[bigbertha]

Apr 7, 2017 16:08:57 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Apr 7, 2017 15:34:07 GMT -5 bigbertha said:

Slowly though. He lost less than 1% of his lead in this update. And TWIl is still only at .1119

Yeah but this is still day 1. It shouldn't already be losing ground back.

I'd still like to see the source for the sales figures thrown around. "That's What I Like" sold maybe 75k last week. That means close to 11k her day on average. If it sold 10% today of what Styles' single did (as the popularity bars show at this moment), that would mean 110k for today. That doesn't match with the figures some had where Styles' sold 120k or whatever this morning alone.

Well, we'll see. Kworb should have an early estimate Tomorrow.

[forg]

Apr 7, 2017 11:57:36 GMT -5 ry4n said:

That iTunes lead is nuts. I think this confirms that Harry was always the biggest name in the group.

Yeah, he was the only guy I know by name from One Direction until Zayn left the group lol. He has the loudest fan base for sure

[.It'sGriffin]

Now, in all honesty, I can't see SOTT debuting on #1, though I hope so. Just sales won't really allow it, though apparently radio is growing rapidly *sigh*.
Also, I find it funny how, IMO, 1D was really bad, but now all ther members make very good music, and SOTT is now exception. It is already one of my favourite semi- or more popular songs of 2k17. Maybe behind Ascension, Andromeda, HUMBLE. and THPIV. Well, Harry joins Kendrick and the Gorrilaz... Who would've thought?

[Harx]

Apr 8, 2017 11:57:46 GMT -5 .It'sGriffin said:

Now, in all honesty, I can't see SOTT debuting on #1, though I hope so. Just sales won't really allow it, though apparently radio is growing rapidly *sigh*.
Also, I find it funny how, IMO, 1D was really bad, but now all ther members make very good music, and SOTT is now exception. It is already one of my favourite semi- or more popular songs of 2k17. Maybe behind Ascension, Andromeda, HUMBLE. and THPIV. Well, Harry joins Kendrick and the Gorrilaz... Who would've thought?

Look at earlier posts. It already sold enough to debut at #1.

[jenglisbe]

Apr 8, 2017 11:58:53 GMT -5 Harx said:

Apr 8, 2017 11:57:46 GMT -5 .It'sGriffin said:

Now, in all honesty, I can't see SOTT debuting on #1, though I hope so. Just sales won't really allow it, though apparently radio is growing rapidly *sigh*.
Also, I find it funny how, IMO, 1D was really bad, but now all ther members make very good music, and SOTT is now exception. It is already one of my favourite semi- or more popular songs of 2k17. Maybe behind Ascension, Andromeda, HUMBLE. and THPIV. Well, Harry joins Kendrick and the Gorrilaz... Who would've thought?

Look at earlier posts. It already sold enough to debut at #1.

I still haven't seen a source for those numbers. Where are people getting those sales numbers?

[shoocoochoocoo]

In their daydreaming...

[.It'sGriffin]

Apr 8, 2017 12:06:09 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Apr 8, 2017 11:58:53 GMT -5 Harx said:

Look at earlier posts. It already sold enough to debut at #1.

I still haven't seen a source for those numbers. Where are people getting those sales numbers?

I didn't really see them either. Though it is easy to believe that they are very, very high, I wouldn't think that it's inafe. Why? Streaming and radio. Though it is on Spotify now, I'm actually surprised that it didn't debut higher. Of course, it is high, but will it be inafe? I'll say that if it'll gain on radio fast inafe and SOY and TWIL will stop growing, it may just enter in the top 2, maybe even on #1.

[Deleted]

Hopefully Kodak Black's new album, Painting Pictures, will do at least something to this week's chart. Hoping something like Conscience will debut.

[Au$tin]

Apr 8, 2017 12:27:36 GMT -5 shoocoochoocoo said:

In their daydreaming...

That's What I Like is still selling 32% of SOTT. Let's do some math...

TWIL sold roughly 75k last week, nearly 11k per day. At 32%, that means SOTT has to selling 35k today alone, or 245k for the week if it were to keep that number all week long. Here's the thing, though. Yesterday, it was down to 9%, or 125k for SOTT in its first day. iTunes is also a rolling chart, and we've pretty much determined in years past that it rolls of 24 hour data. SOTT was #1 and pushed TWIL down to 9% in roughly 10 hours. In a 24 hour period, TWIL was selling 9% of SOTT in just 10 hours. That's where the sales estimates are coming from. They are not delusions.

[Sambalada]

Show just how much we'd know with some simple maths

SOTT is a #1 contender. Ones who said otherwise are the ones being delusional.

[Tea-why]

This is a dumb question but what exactly does the on-demand songs chart measure and what is the difference between that and the streaming songs chart? I've googled these but I don't really get the difference.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Apr 8, 2017 11:57:46 GMT -5 .It'sGriffin said:

Now, in all honesty, I can't see SOTT debuting on #1, though I hope so. Just sales won't really allow it, though apparently radio is growing rapidly *sigh*.
Also, I find it funny how, IMO, 1D was really bad, but now all ther members make very good music, and SOTT is now exception. It is already one of my favourite semi- or more popular songs of 2k17. Maybe behind Ascension, Andromeda, HUMBLE. and THPIV. Well, Harry joins Kendrick and the Gorrilaz... Who would've thought?

SOTT's radio according to kworb started at #128 yesterday, which is not bad but not really that huge. What apparently would decrease its chances to debut at #1 would be Spotify's issue. It debuted at #19 yesterday also according to kworb, which seems unusually low for a #1 in iTunes. We'll see how those numbers turn out for the full week.

[theonlyone]

First estimate from Kworb is 178,000 for SOTT.

[Gary]

Apr 8, 2017 19:19:59 GMT -5 Tea-why said:

This is a dumb question but what exactly does the on-demand songs chart measure and what is the difference between that and the streaming songs chart? I've googled these but I don't really get the difference.

On-Demand Streaming Songs


A ranking of the top on-demand play request and plays from unlimited listener-controlled radio channels on leading music subscription services.


Streaming

This week's top streamed radio songs and on-demand songs and videos on leading online music services.


Basically, streaming encompasses everything, On-Demand is just paid streams

[Choco]

Apr 8, 2017 20:01:25 GMT -5 theonlyone said:

First estimate from Kworb is 178,000 for SOTT.

That probably wouldn't be enough to reach #1. Streaming and radio will be the deciding factor.

[Deleted]

I hope Issues goes to top 10 next week too

[Deleted]

Apr 8, 2017 20:54:08 GMT -5 Choco said:

Apr 8, 2017 20:01:25 GMT -5 theonlyone said:

First estimate from Kworb is 178,000 for SOTT.

That probably wouldn't be enough to reach #1. Streaming and radio will be the deciding factor.

Agreed.  With today's weekly sales levels I didn't see this passing 200k.  Front loaded from 1D fans as I suspected.

I do hope this does big things beyond its inevitably high debut.  It's refreshing.

[Au$tin]

With the lead it had and still has, that 178k figure seems drastically off. It's not falling that hard.

[Sambalada]

Maybe all of sudden TWIL and every other song's sales dropped to 4k or smth

[Deleted]

Apr 8, 2017 22:18:49 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

With the lead it had and still has, that 178k figure seems drastically off. It's not falling that hard.

The full tracking weeks begins 12:00 am Friday east coast time, so SOTT's missing about 8 full hours
TWIL sales' like 70k for the week, 10k per day.
The first 16-hour day (Friday) for SOTT, TWIL's percentage runs the gamut of 0.10-0.15, that gives SOTT an average of 8 times lead, 80k*2/3, but I'll give it 55-60k
The second day (today), TWIL's percentage ramps up 0.15-0.37, that's like, 4-5 times lead for SOTT, about 45-50k at most
Tomorrow it's probably gonna fall to give the second best 0.4-0.6, 2-2.5 times lead at best, 20-25k
That's 120-135k sales, and with 4 more days assume that it's gonna remain the crown position for the full week and 1.5 time lead in average that's 15*4=60k more sales.
Add up estimate is 175-200k. 178k seems very appropriate. You just need to put down calculations before "drastically" everything up lol

[Deleted]

Wow, that's awkward, 2 posts from different person about the same stuff at the same time and I'm beat to the punch!

[Harx]

And I already got happy about SOTT securing the #1 debut. :/

So how much streams and airplay does it need?

[Deleted]

Apr 9, 2017 1:47:08 GMT -5 Harx said:

And I already got happy about SOTT securing the #1 debut. :/

Idk, with 180k sales and 40m (assume) airplay, it's gonna need (at least) 40m streaming to secure that spot. Now it's looking at 15-20m at best probably. They really should drop a music video the first day