Billboard Hot 100: 9/2/2017

[Envoirment]

Week 15 is pretty much a given for "Despacito" right? It'll need to somehow hang on next week to tie the record. Bieber is releasing a new song thursday though. It could do a "2U" or do really well. But it'll be at a slight disadvantage as a lot of its first day buzz won't count towards next week's chart. And if Despacito is discounted on iTunes, things will be very interesting!

[85la]

Aug 16, 2017 13:52:58 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Aug 16, 2017 13:39:55 GMT -5 85la said:

This is a new level of payola! I wonder if it would be in violation of Billboard's chart policies.

I don't see why it would be. People have to actively participate to win anything. You can give out money all you want, but if no one is willing to take the initiative to create the video, then you can't force them to. It's honestly less of an issue than airplay, which is forced upon listeners. Creating a video, even for a prize, is still in the hands of the consumer.

Yes, but the fans will get paid if they create the videos, which other people will watch. With payola, record labels pay, or bribe, radio stations to play their records in hopes of increasing artist popularity and record sales. Here, Khaled and Rihanna are paying fans to create new videos for their song which will be uploaded to YouTube. So the fans, along with YouTube, are analogous to radio stations in this case because they are providing the content. One would have to be very naive to believe the purpose of this isn't to increase overall streams of the song that would help it to get to #1 and lead to more artist popularity and revenue.

[groovetheory]

Aug 16, 2017 21:20:28 GMT -5 forg said:

Luis Fonsi just performed Despacito on Good Morning America so he is not giving up that #1 position easily

Is GMA a big factor when it comes to sales? I don't live in the USA so I don't really know but isn't it a morning show, is it still that huge?

[jeiboy]

Aug 16, 2017 22:08:55 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Since Google releases discounts first, the remixed Despacito, the version people listen to, currently has a discount on Google play. Which means it's coming to iTunes on Friday. Considering the first day from Friends is gonna be in this tracking week and that'll be when a majority of the sales will happen, 16 weeks is looking more and more likely.

You have  a source?

[Spidey]

Aug 17, 2017 3:05:03 GMT -5 jeiboy said:

Aug 16, 2017 22:08:55 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Since Google releases discounts first, the remixed Despacito, the version people listen to, currently has a discount on Google play. Which means it's coming to iTunes on Friday. Considering the first day from Friends is gonna be in this tracking week and that'll be when a majority of the sales will happen, 16 weeks is looking more and more likely.

You have  a source?

play.google.com/store/music/album/Luis_Fonsi_Daddy_Yankee_Despacito_Remix?id=Bnnwic4fkpwhn34md7aoetwhvei&hl=en

[Deleted]

I wonder if Bieber even cares if Friends gets that #1 debut? I'm pretty sure he doesn't want to sabotage his own chance at the record. Maybe that's why he's releasing on a Thursday.

Anyways, since he is releasing on Thursday, it doesn't look like anything short of Taylor Swift dropping lightning bolts from the heavens is gonna stop Despacito's week 15 and 16. No one's gonna fall for this horribly contrived Wild Thoughts challenge. It's not like they just dropped some So Bad It's Amazing video like with Hotline Bling.

[jeiboy]

Aug 17, 2017 3:08:25 GMT -5 Spidey said:

Aug 17, 2017 3:05:03 GMT -5 jeiboy said:

You have  a source?

play.google.com/store/music/album/Luis_Fonsi_Daddy_Yankee_Despacito_Remix?id=Bnnwic4fkpwhn34md7aoetwhvei&hl=en

Its 1.29$ still, not discounted to 0.69 ? 

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^I see it at $0.69.

[jayhawk1117]

Aug 17, 2017 3:05:03 GMT -5 jeiboy said:

Aug 16, 2017 22:08:55 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Since Google releases discounts first, the remixed Despacito, the version people listen to, currently has a discount on Google play. Which means it's coming to iTunes on Friday. Considering the first day from Friends is gonna be in this tracking week and that'll be when a majority of the sales will happen, 16 weeks is looking more and more likely.

You have  a source?

The Google play music store. It's currently 69 cents

[jayhawk1117]

Aug 17, 2017 3:37:21 GMT -5 @zach808 said:

I wonder if Bieber even cares if Friends gets that #1 debut? I'm pretty sure he doesn't want to sabotage his own chance at the record. Maybe that's why he's releasing on a Thursday.

Anyways, since he is releasing on Thursday, it doesn't look like anything short of Taylor Swift dropping lightning bolts from the heavens is gonna stop Despacito's week 15 and 16. No one's gonna fall for this horribly contrived Wild Thoughts challenge. It's not like they just dropped some So Bad It's Amazing video like with Hotline Bling.

i mean some people have done it look it up on youtube, its fuckery lol. Together they've all maybe crossed 1 million views worldwide. But yeah unless Taylor is about to pull a Beyonce this Friday or Friends have some Hello type sales then 15 and 16 look likely.

I doubt he cares because unless Taylor drops some fire soon, Friends has a pretty solid chance for being his 6th number one. (in 2 years, POP ICON)

[NeRD]

So much for Unforgettable being a #1 contender.

[mcsteamy]

Aug 17, 2017 9:01:56 GMT -5 NeRD said:

So much for Unforgettable being a #1 contender.

Or Wild Thoughts lmao

[Golden Bluebird]

kworb.net/airadio/

Overall AI (2017/08/17) - Top 20
1. DJ Khaled ft. Rihanna & Bryson Tiller - Wild Thoughts (174.032) (+0.932) (=) ***
2. Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee ft. Justin Bieber - Despacito (169.427) (-2.521) (=)
3. Shawn Mendes - There's Nothing Holdin' Me Back (168.696) (+0.870) (=)
4. Imagine Dragons - Believer (159.872) (+0.318) (=)
5. Charlie Puth - Attention (159.623) (+1.135) (=)
6. Bruno Mars - That's What I Like (130.864) (-1.262) (=)
7. Ed Sheeran - Shape of You (127.024) (-0.722) (=)
8. Zedd & Alessia Cara - Stay (123.300) (-1.202) (=)
9. Sam Hunt - Body Like a Back Road (119.128) (-0.112) (=)
10. The Chainsmokers & Coldplay - Something Just Like This (111.962) (-1.044) (=)
11. French Montana ft. Swae Lee - Unforgettable (106.200) (-0.702) (=)
12. Childish Gambino - Redbone (95.371) (-1.913) (=)
13. Niall Horan - Slow Hands (93.075) (+1.267) (=)
14. Kygo & Selena Gomez - It Ain't Me (86.922) (-0.553) (=)
15. Liam Payne ft. Quavo - Strip That Down (82.184) (+2.585) (+1)
16. Halsey - Now or Never (81.507) (-1.662) (-1)
17. James Arthur - Say You Won't Let Go (78.371) (-0.084) (=)
18. Calvin Harris ft. Pharrell Williams, Katy Perry, & Big Sean - Feels (75.007) (+0.402) (+2)
19. Ed Sheeran - Castle on the Hill (73.908) (-1.476) (=)
20. DJ Khaled ft. Justin Bieber, Quavo, Chance the Rapper, & Lil Wayne - I'm the One (73.687) (-2.291) (-2) ***

Others:
24. Portugal. The Man - Feel It Still (56.845) (+1.367) (+3)
26. Billy Currington - Do I Make You Wanna (56.478) (-1.405) (-2)
30. Cole Swindell ft. Dierks Bentley - Flatliner (51.564) (-3.069) (-1)
33. Pink - What About Us (45.620) (+5.133) (+11)
38. Cardi B - Bodak Yellow (42.619) (+1.687) (+5)
45. Kendrick Lamar ft. Rihanna - LOYALTY. (40.889) (+1.018) (=)

[Suono]

However, the chances of "Friends" becoming Bieber's third single to debut at No. 1 on the Hot 100 are likely very small. That's because his decision to release the song at noon on a Thursday will effectively cripple his first-week numbers. Billboard's streaming and sales tracking week for songs ends each Thursday night/Friday morning at midnight, which means that the streams and sales from the first 12 hours of availability for "Friends," along with its first three-and-a-half days of airplay (as the airplay tracking week runs Monday-Sunday), will represent the sum total of its first week. Traditionally, for artists of Bieber's stature, that results in little more than a first-week cameo on the Hot 100 -- for instance, P!nk debuted at No. 82 on this week's Hot 100 with a day's worth of streaming and sales points for her well-received, Thursday-released quasi-comeback single "What About Us."

From Billboard. www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/7905151/justin-bieber-friends-despcaito-number-one-hot-100

A 16th Week at #1 is almost a given for Despacito. Maybe we'll get new Taylor next Friday? She certainly is playing up her image:

[Normi]

Friends is still not out which means it won't give too much away to this week

[singingrulebritannia]

Aug 17, 2017 10:04:45 GMT -5 Normi said:

Friends is still not out which means it won't give too much away to this week

We've known the time of release was 12 ET for 3 days.

[kcdawg13]

I'm not a Bieber fan, I really just want him to go away. But honestly, Friends is bop and I'm so rooting for it to go #1. That chorus fucks me up, it reminds me a lot of Sorry, which is a compliment since that's Bieber's best song.

Goodbye Despacito.

[inverse]

So where's What About Us going to end up? It's honestly looking to turn out as an actual hit with actual longevity because it's climbing radio rapidly. Will it pull a Malibu and go to number 10 next week or is that out of reach?

[cassiuscasanova]

Aug 17, 2017 12:52:42 GMT -5 inverse said:

So where's What About Us going to end up? It's honestly looking to turn out as an actual hit with actual longevity because it's climbing radio rapidly. Will it pull a Malibu and go to number 10 next week or is that out of reach?

I can definitely see top ten

[kcdawg13]

Aug 17, 2017 12:58:01 GMT -5 cassiuscasanova said:

Aug 17, 2017 12:52:42 GMT -5 inverse said:

So where's What About Us going to end up? It's honestly looking to turn out as an actual hit with actual longevity because it's climbing radio rapidly. Will it pull a Malibu and go to number 10 next week or is that out of reach?

I can definitely see top ten

It should definitely jump to the Top 10 next week, and with great airplay gains and consistent sales I see it staying there or at least close for a while. Unlike Malibu which died in sales early on and couldn't earn airplay for the life of it. Pink seems to be doing alright.

[g8erboi]

Just my opinion, but I'm afraid What About Us doesn't have enough streaming to jump into the top 10 just yet.

[.It'sGriffin]

So... I actually really like it. The guy evolved. He's like a goddamn Gyarados, really. I hope that it'll go to #1.

[areyoureadytojump]

Aug 17, 2017 14:39:02 GMT -5 g8erboi said:

Just my opinion, but I'm afraid What About Us doesn't have enough streaming to jump into the top 10 just yet.

Exactly. ATRL's early predictions has it at #30. I posted the predictions on page 1 of this thread.

[kcdawg13]

Aug 17, 2017 14:56:54 GMT -5 .It'sGriffin said:

So... I actually really like it. The guy evolved. He's like a goddamn Gyarados, really. I hope that it'll go to #1.

Friends? Yes, it's a fantastic track. I really thought his features have been really bland, the only one I sorta liked was Despacito but that track wore thin very quickly. Though this one seems like a step in the right direction, Bieber seems to be better with his regular producers.

[jayhawk1117]

Why does it feel like JB has low-key released the same song like 6 times since 2015?

[kcdawg13]

Aug 17, 2017 15:14:40 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Why does it feel like JB has low-key released the same song like 6 times since 2015?

Cuz his recent catalog is mostly Tropical pop flavored bops. 

[85la]

Aug 17, 2017 3:37:21 GMT -5 @zach808 said:

I wonder if Bieber even cares if Friends gets that #1 debut? I'm pretty sure he doesn't want to sabotage his own chance at the record. Maybe that's why he's releasing on a Thursday.

I was thinking the same thing, but then why not just wait a couple weeks, then he could get both the #1 record and a #1 debut. He might be worried about the competition that might crop up by then.

[areyoureadytojump]

Justin Bieber #1 iTunes

[jamrock16]

I find it interesting that so many people think that 16 week+ number 1's will be the new trend based on a few songs doing really well in recent years. Will streaming continue to be a strong force in the coming years? What if Billboard tweaks its formula to give less points to streaming? What if there's a new component of consuming music that results in more turnover on the charts? There are so many unknowns that can't be accounted for and we've seen time and time again that the new norm is only the new norm until it isn't (ex. digital sales huge decline in recent years).

[Deleted]

Tbh I don't think this'll be a #1 debut. I didn't even find out about it until a couple hours ago, and from what I've heard it took longer than usual. Plus, there's the release of What About Us, and the discounts of Despacito (original) and Wild Thoughts.