Billboard Hot 100 9/16/2017 - Taylor Swift #1

[Gary]

Taylor Swift's 'Look What You Made Me Do' Headed for No. 1 on Billboard Hot 100 Next Week


Her return single – new at No. 77 this week from initial airplay – should soar to the top next week and halt "Despacito" from earning a potential record-breaking 17th week at No. 1.
Look where Taylor Swift is headed: to No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart.

Her new single, "Look What You Made Me Do," should soar to No. 1 on next week's Hot 100 (dated Sept. 16); highlights of the chart will post on Billboard.com on Tuesday, Sept. 5 (a day after the Labor Day holiday).

Following a first chart week of sales and streaming data tracking (Aug. 25-31), after its Aug. 25 arrival, and a first full week of airplay tracking (Aug. 28-Sept. 3), the song should storm to No. 1. On the new Sept. 9-dated Hot 100, the track debuts at No. 77 powered by its first three days of airplay. It enters at No. 23 on the all-genre Radio Songs chart with 46 million in airplay audience, according to Nielsen Music. Driving its overall radio exposure, "Look" launches at No. 16 on the Adult Pop Songs airplay chart and No. 21 on Pop Songs, marking the highest bow on each chart in 2017, as well as No. 22 on Adult Contemporary.

(The Hot 100 measures airplay on a Monday-Sunday schedule, while streams and sales cover a Friday-Thursday period; thus, "Look" debuts on the Sept. 9-dated chart from its first three days of airplay.)

According to industry projections, "Look," the first single from Swift's album Reputation, due Nov. 10, could sell between 400,000 and 500,000 downloads in its first week. That could mark the highest weekly total since Adele's "Hello" sold 480,000 downloads in its third week (ending Nov. 12, 2015). (It was previously reported on Saturday, based on initial projections, that "Look" was aiming for a start of 500,000 downloads sold following its explosive retail debut on Aug. 25.)

Along with first-week streaming totals, powered by its lyric video released Aug. 25 and its official clip which premiered Sunday (Aug. 27) during the MTV Video Music Awards, as well as a full first week of airplay, "Look" should vault to No. 1 on the Hot 100.

If "Look" leaps to the top, it would prevent, or delay, further history from being made by the current leader, Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee's "Despacito," featuring Justin Bieber, which this week (on the Sept. 9-dated Hot 100) logs its record-tying 16th week at No. 1. It matches Mariah Carey and Boyz II Men's "One Sweet Day," which reigned for a record-establishing 16 weeks in 1995-96.
Thus, if "Look" dethrones "Despacito," the latter would, at least as of next week, remain tied for the longest command in the Hot 100's 59-year archives.


Atill, high-profile debuts often fall in their second frames (following strong streaming and sales starts in their premiere weeks before dipping and then building back up as familiarity, helped by radio airplay, takes hold). So, "Despacito" could give way to "Look" for a week but then rebound the following week for a record-setting 17th frame at No. 1 after all.

Check back next week to see if Swift's "Look" vaults to No. 1 on the Hot 100 and find out the following week if "Look" leads or if "Despacito" earns an honor as yet unprecedented in the Hot 100's history.



www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/7942336/taylor-swift-look-what-you-made-me-do-headed-no-1-hot-100

[Zach]

I'm just hoping to not see another 10+ week #1 song right now.

[chartfreak]

Would be interesting to see Despacito return to #1 but I think the chances are slim, no?

[chartPredictor]

Aug 28, 2017 22:18:00 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

Would be interesting to see Despacito return to #1 but I think the chances are slim, no?

It''ll stay above BY and WT for one week after the debut, probably. Its only chances are a large dropoff for Taylor following her debut, which tbh is already happening in her sales.

[mrricx]

Aug 28, 2017 22:18:00 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

Would be interesting to see Despacito return to #1 but I think the chances are slim, no?

Hardly. The remix is out of top 20 on Spotify now and the original one is out of top 50. It is also dropping quite fast in airplay.

[Golden Bluebird]

kworb.net/airadio/

*** = Dropped or added a format so their updates are completely incorrect

Overall AI (2017/08/29) - Top 20
1. (=) DJ KHALED F/RIHANNA/B. TILLER - Wild Thoughts (178.899) (-0.349) ***
2. (=) SHAWN MENDES - There's Nothing Holdin' Me Back (176.548) (+0.507) ***
3. (=) CHARLIE PUTH - Attention (173.787) (+1.026)
4. (=) IMAGINE DRAGONS - Believer (159.506) (+0.571)
5. (=) LUIS FONSI - Despacito f/Daddy Yankee (138.954) (-2.971)
6. (+1) ED SHEERAN - Shape Of You (118.607) (-0.328)
7. (-1) BRUNO MARS - That's What I Like (118.433) (-1.263)
8. (+1) NIALL HORAN - Slow Hands (113.203) (+1.732)
9. (-1) SAM HUNT - Body Like A Back Road (112.839) (-0.874)
10. (=) FRENCH MONTANA - Unforgettable f/Swae Lee (110.395) (-0.474) ***
11. (=) ZEDD & ALESSIA CARA - Stay (109.870) (-0.974)
12. (=) THE CHAINSMOKERS & COLDPLAY - Something Just Like This (103.289) (-0.492)
13. (=) LIAM PAYNE - Strip That Down f/Quavo (94.204) (+1.121) ***
14. (=) CHILDISH GAMBINO - Redbone (84.857) (-0.633)
15. (=) JAMES ARTHUR - Say You Won't Let Go (77.213) (-0.383)
16. (+1) CALVIN HARRIS - Feels f/Pharrell/Katy/Big Sean (75.542) (+0.201)
17. (-1) KYGO X SELENA GOMEZ - It Ain't Me (75.500) (-1.677)
18. (=) PORTUGAL. THE MAN - Feel It Still (73.069) (+1.121)
19. (+3) TAYLOR SWIFT - Look What You Made Me Do (71.803) (+12.681) ***
20. (-1) OLD DOMINION - No Such Thing As A Broken Heart (66.183) (+0.365)

Others:
28. (+1) CHEAT CODES - No Promises f/Demi Lovato (52.676) (+1.262)
30. (=) P!NK - What About Us (51.836) (+1.262)
40. (+3) JUSTIN BIEBER & BLOODPOP - Friends (45.432) (+2.974)
51. (+1) LOGIC - 1-800-273-8255 f/A.Cara/Khalid (37.466) (+1.192) ***

[jenglisbe]

At this rate "Despacito" could be down to like 105 million impressions for the next chart week (i.e. to return to #1). If the sale price is lifted, then it will implode in sales, too. Streaming is already imploding. A return to #1 will be tough unless Swift's song has a record drop in both sales and streaming.

[Deleted]

RIP Despacito breaking record - got lucky Taylor didn't release earlier
Taylor should get at least 2x the points of it with the huge amount of sales and streams. I find hard to believe she can drop that much in one week for Despacito to overtake it. Bodak Yellow soon should pass it too
And if Taylor and Cardi are in the top2, that would be the first time two girls (no guys) get that since... I don't know, Taylor and Meghan?

[Golden Bluebird]

Aug 29, 2017 10:25:43 GMT -5 @pete said:

And if Taylor and Cardi are in the top2, that would be the first time two girls (no guys) get that since... I don't know, Taylor and Meghan?

Yes. Last time we had the Top 2 be all girls was when "Blank Space" and "All About That Bass" were Top 2 in 12/13/2014.

[slw84]

Aug 28, 2017 22:18:00 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

Would be interesting to see Despacito return to #1 but I think the chances are slim, no?

Well it's not gaining in sales or streams and is losing over 3.0M radio audience daily.
I think it's unlikely

[Someone]

simmnfierzig's very early Predictions


1Look What You Made Me Do 934 (+76)
2Despacito 448 (-1)
3Bodak Yellow 409 (=)
4Wild Thoughts 371 (-2)
5Attention 302 (=)
6Believer 295 (-2)
7Unforgettable 281 (-1)
8There's Nothing Holdin Me Back 275 (-1)
9Rake It Up 238 (+1)
101-800-273-8255 232 (+19)
11Shape Of You 231 (-2)
12Strip That Down 228 (-1)
13That's What I Like 225 (-5)
14Slow Hands 224 (=)
15Humble 221 (+4)
16Bank Account 221 (-4)
17Sorry Not Sorry 212 (=)
18Body Like A Back Road 206 (-5)
19Congratulations 188 (-4)
20Feel It Still 186 (+3)

21XO Tour Lif3 185 (+4)
22Feels 175 (=)
23I'm The One 172 (-7)
24Mi Gente 170 (=)
25Redbone 169 (-8)
26Something Just Like This 166 (-5)
27Praying 160 (+1)
28Stay 152 (-1)
29Location 150 (-3)
30What About Us 142 (+5)
31Friends 142 (-11)
32Say You Won't Let Go 131 (-1)
33Love Galore 128 (=)
34Young Dumb & Broke 126 (+7)
35Mask Off 124 (-5)
36Loyalty 122 (-4)
37I Get The Bag 119 (-3)
38Small Town Boy 115 (-2)
39Roll In Peace 114 (+14)
40No Promises 113 (-1)

41Jocelyn Flores 112 (debut)
42What Ifs 108 (-4)
43The Way Life Goes 102 (debut)
44Thunder 100 (+15)
45No Such Thing As A Broken Heart 99 (+5)
46It Ain't Me 98 (-9)
47Swish Swish 98 (re-entry)
48Silence 96 (+4)
49It's A Vibe 93 (-5)
50**** Love 89 (debut)
51Sauce It Up 89 (debut)
52Do Re Mi 87 (+2)
53Crew 86 (-2)
54444+222 86 (debut)
55Magnolia 84 (-8)
56The Race 82 (-7)
57Fetish 80 (-2)
58Drinkin Problem 80 (-13)
59Heartache On The Dance Floor 80 (-3)
60When It Rains It Pours 79 (-2)

61Back To You 79 (-1)
62Everybody Dies In Their Nightmares 78 (debut)
63Butterfly Effect 75 (-6)
64Transportin' 73 (+18)
65Light It Up 72 (debut)
66DNA 70 (-1)
67Escapate Conmingo 69 (-4)
68Felices Los 4 69 (-7)
69The Weekend 68 (+3)
70Unforgettable Thomas Rhett 66 (-3)
71New Rules 66 (+3)
72Glorious 65 (-4)
73Whatever You Need 64 (-9)
74Revenge 62 (debut)
75Versace On The Floor 61 (-33)
76X 60 (debut)
77Do I Make You Wanna 59 (-11)
78All The Pretty Girls 58 (-2)
79Depression & Obsession 58 (debut)
80B.E.D. 57 (-5)

81Save Me 57 (debut)
82Carry On 56 (debut)
83Havana 55 (+11)
84Love 53 (-13)
85Tell Me You Love Me 53 (debut)
86My Girl 52 (-8)
87Walk On Water 51 (debut)
88Wish I Knew You 51 (-3)
89Most Girls 50 (19)
90Every Little Thing 49 (-6)
91More Girls Like You 49 (-2)
92They Don't Know 49 (-6)
93Something New 48 (re-entry)
94Questions 46 (-4)
95For Her 45 (-3)
96It Ain't My Fault 45 (-13)
97Honest 45 (-16)
98Relationship 44 (=)
99Somebody Else Will 44 (-30)
100Greatest Love Story 43 (debut)

[rickroller]

Tanke On The Floor 💀

[bigbertha]

Aug 29, 2017 16:24:04 GMT -5 Someone said:

simmnfierzig's very early Predictions


1Look What You Made Me Do 934 (+76)
2Despacito 448 (-1)

Despacito had 502 last week in his formula.

Unless LWYMMD completely collapses next week, I think it's safe to say it's done.

[forg]

Sucks for Versace on the Floor :(

Anyway, yay for 1-800-273-8255 potentially hitting the top 10. I hope it continues to chart high

Hoping What About Us could do as well as last year's Just Like Fire. Streaming for Pink is weak so airplay needs to be really strong to have a chance at the top 20/10

[garrettlen]

Aug 29, 2017 17:25:38 GMT -5 bigbertha said:

Aug 29, 2017 16:24:04 GMT -5 Someone said:

simmnfierzig's very early Predictions


1Look What You Made Me Do 934 (+76)
2Despacito 448 (-1)

Despacito had 502 last week in his formula.

Unless LWYMMD completely collapses next week, I think it's safe to say it's done.

it was #1 for a record tying 16 weeks, I don't think it has anything else left to prove.

[Deleted]

How To Talk better debut. It's the best song off LIR2 imo.

[deepston]

Taylor's single is gonna get so raped by radio. Not that it is a bad thing..

[woods]

Already a thread.

[Suono]

About damn time That's What I Like is out of the top 10. That song is SO. OLD.

Also, Praying deserves so much better

[Glove Slap]

Merged into the other thread.

[#LisaRinna]

Cardi already had 2 million less in streaming last week (42 million vs. 44.6), she'll be #2 while "Despacito" falls even further down the top 5.

It's out of the Spotify top 20 and bleeding airplay. There's no way it's going back to #1.

[MilesW1998]

Aug 29, 2017 21:26:13 GMT -5 #LisaRinna said:

Cardi already had 2 million less in streaming last week (42 million vs. 44.6), she'll be #2 while "Despacito" falls even further down the top 5.

It's out of the Spotify top 20 and bleeding airplay. There's no way it's going back to #1.

Don't forget it's also being outsold by Logic's new song. 

[deepston]

Chances for Bodak Yellow to take over Swift in the next few weeks?
I don't think BY will grow that much in sales. Streaming should be thight but with Taylor mv I'm expecting her to take over it. LWYMMD is probably gonna top radio in a few weeks and BY is a hip hop track so I guess it should have some sort of disadvantage here.

Will Bodak Yellow be another song blocked from #1 spot? Thoughts?

[Golden Bluebird]

kworb.net/airadio/

*** = Dropped or added a format so their updates are completely incorrect

Overall AI (Top 20) - 2017/08/30
1. (=) DJ KHALED F/RIHANNA/B. TILLER - Wild Thoughts (176.395) (-2.504) ***
2. (=) SHAWN MENDES - There's Nothing Holdin' Me Back (175.264) (-1.284) ***
3. (=) CHARLIE PUTH - Attention (174.204) (+0.417)
4. (=) IMAGINE DRAGONS - Believer (160.056) (+0.550)
5. (=) LUIS FONSI - Despacito f/Daddy Yankee (135.430) (-3.524)
6. (=) ED SHEERAN - Shape Of You (119.644) (+1.037) ***
7. (=) BRUNO MARS - That's What I Like (115.892) (-2.541)
8. (=) NIALL HORAN - Slow Hands (114.596) (+1.393)
9. (=) SAM HUNT - Body Like A Back Road (111.616) (-1.223)
10. (=) FRENCH MONTANA - Unforgettable f/Swae Lee (109.299) (-1.096)
11. (=) ZEDD & ALESSIA CARA - Stay (109.291) (-0.579)
12. (=) THE CHAINSMOKERS & COLDPLAY - Something Just Like This (102.405) (-0.884)
13. (=) LIAM PAYNE - Strip That Down f/Quavo (95.004) (+0.800)
14. (+5) TAYLOR SWIFT - Look What You Made Me Do (83.622) (+11.819)
15. (-1) CHILDISH GAMBINO - Redbone (82.513) (-2.344)
16. (-1) JAMES ARTHUR - Say You Won't Let Go (77.319) (+0.106)
17. (-1) CALVIN HARRIS - Feels f/Pharrell/Katy/Big Sean (75.778) (+0.236)
18. (-1) KYGO X SELENA GOMEZ - It Ain't Me (74.355) (-1.145)
19. (-1) PORTUGAL. THE MAN - Feel It Still (74.068) (+0.999)
20. (=) OLD DOMINION - No Such Thing As A Broken Heart (66.656) (+0.473)

Others:
22. (+1) CARDI B - Bodak Yellow (60.605) (+1.212)
23. (-1) MIDLAND - Drinkin' Problem (59.604) (-2.459)
24. (+4) CHEAT CODES - No Promises f/Demi Lovato (54.113) (+1.437)
26. (+4) P!NK - What About Us (53.263) (+1.427)
28. (-4) LADY ANTEBELLUM - You Look Good (52.353) (-4.077)
34. (+6) JUSTIN BIEBER & BLOODPOP - Friends (47.868) (+2.436)
49. (+2) LOGIC - 1-800-273-8255 f/A.Cara/Khalid (38.670) (+1.204)

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Damn, it seems that Attention will be #1 in Radio Songs next week and Look What You Made Me Do could end up as high as #6.

[onebuffalo]

With Look What You Made Me Do being the next Hot 100 #1, Taylor Swift will have topped that chart five times. She has six #1 adult contemporary hits and seven #1 country hits.

[Leo ✔]

Aug 30, 2017 8:47:53 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

^Damn, it seems that Attention will be #1 in Radio Songs next week and Look What You Made Me Do could end up as high as #6.

I think "Attention" can be #1 at the end of this week. Happy for him and his best song.

Also happy to see "Desp" is bleeding airplay.

[jarhys]

Just notice that Shape Of You is above That's What I Like on airplay chart. Crazy longevity.

[jenglisbe]

Aug 30, 2017 8:47:53 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

^Damn, it seems that Attention will be #1 in Radio Songs next week and Look What You Made Me Do could end up as high as #6.

Swift will have an 8th day effect, though.

[KeepDeanWeird]

Aug 30, 2017 14:50:45 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Aug 30, 2017 8:47:53 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

^Damn, it seems that Attention will be #1 in Radio Songs next week and Look What You Made Me Do could end up as high as #6.

Swift will have an 8th day effect, though.

Yep, even though she may be able to make almost all of that up by end of tracking week based on current daily boosts, she'll probably be around #11 for week. A pretty decent start. :) Sticking to my predeiction thay 2nd single out by 3rd week in October. Everything except a live performance for LWYMMD has happened.