Billboard Hot 100: 12/2/2017

[deepston]

Nov 20, 2017 19:21:11 GMT -5 ddlz said:

If pop songs were storming up the charts in Gucci Gang style, y'all definitely wouldn't be sitting here complaining about streaming being weighted too heavily.

Most pop songs don't even come close to the trash Gucci Gang is so... I guess we have a point?

[purplefebruary]

WTF with Gucci Gang? Why has it rebounded so high?!

[House Lannister]

Nov 20, 2017 17:22:20 GMT -5 jebsib said:

The only concern I have in Urban's dominance now is the lack of diversity on the r&b chart. Due to the current makeup of the chart (Streaming and album cut dominance), the charts have never felt more one-note or unbalanced. Crossover songs are excluded, pure r&b songs are rare, veteran artists are almost non-existent and women - other than the odd Cardi B, SZA or Nicki - aren't even in the top 60. It represents the least variety on the chart in its 75 years.

In some ways, that almost sounds identical to country music's situation.

[thebops]

Gucci Gang: 32,900 (18k sales, 14M airplay, 45M streams)
Thunder: 31,400 (56k sales, 115M airplay, 17.1M streams)

So:
Thunder is selling over 3 times the amount of Gucci Gang
Thunder has over 8 times the amount of airplay as Gucci Gang
Gucci Gang has about 2.6 times the number of streams as Thunder

What "feels" like the bigger song to me based on the above would be Thunder. Sales has gone down as streaming has increased and I'm fine with that so what stands out to me is that Airplay is not weighted high enough. Now, I have always been of the opinion that a big song on the Hot 100 means both that the song is popular and well liked (sales/streaming) but also that the song has high RECOGNITION in the general population(airplay). If you were to ask 1,000 random people of all ages, races, backgrounds, etc which of these 2 songs are you familiar with I bet more people would name Thunder since they may have heard in while in the car, at the mall, etc. So to me, take 5% from both Streaming and Sales and give the 10% to Airplay and the formula would make more sense. My opinion only.

[djkhaled]

Nov 21, 2017 0:22:41 GMT -5 thebops said:

Gucci Gang: 32,900 (18k sales, 14M airplay, 45M streams)
Thunder: 31,400 (56k sales, 115M airplay, 17.1M streams)

So:
Thunder is selling over 3 times the amount of Gucci Gang
Thunder has over 8 times the amount of airplay as Gucci Gang
Gucci Gang has about 2.6 times the number of streams as Thunder

What "feels" like the bigger song to me based on the above would be Thunder. Sales has gone down as streaming has increased and I'm fine with that so what stands out to me is that Airplay is not weighted high enough. Now, I have always been of the opinion that a big song on the Hot 100 means both that the song is popular and well liked (sales/streaming) but also that the song has high RECOGNITION in the general population(airplay). If you were to ask 1,000 random people of all ages, races, backgrounds, etc which of these 2 songs are you familiar with I bet more people would name Thunder since they may have heard in while in the car, at the mall, etc. So to me, take 5% from both Streaming and Sales and give the 10% to Airplay and the formula would make more sense. My opinion only.

IMHO airplay shouldn't be counted at all, it is not an indicator of what is popular but rather an indicator of payola

[felipe]

Nov 21, 2017 1:17:33 GMT -5 djkhaled said:

Nov 21, 2017 0:22:41 GMT -5 thebops said:

Gucci Gang: 32,900 (18k sales, 14M airplay, 45M streams)
Thunder: 31,400 (56k sales, 115M airplay, 17.1M streams)

So:
Thunder is selling over 3 times the amount of Gucci Gang
Thunder has over 8 times the amount of airplay as Gucci Gang
Gucci Gang has about 2.6 times the number of streams as Thunder

What "feels" like the bigger song to me based on the above would be Thunder. Sales has gone down as streaming has increased and I'm fine with that so what stands out to me is that Airplay is not weighted high enough. Now, I have always been of the opinion that a big song on the Hot 100 means both that the song is popular and well liked (sales/streaming) but also that the song has high RECOGNITION in the general population(airplay). If you were to ask 1,000 random people of all ages, races, backgrounds, etc which of these 2 songs are you familiar with I bet more people would name Thunder since they may have heard in while in the car, at the mall, etc. So to me, take 5% from both Streaming and Sales and give the 10% to Airplay and the formula would make more sense. My opinion only.

IMHO airplay shouldn't be counted at all, it is not an indicator of what is popular but rather an indicator of payola

Payola or not, if millions of people hear it on the radio that means it's popular and recognizable.

[felipe]

Nov 20, 2017 16:54:17 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Nov 20, 2017 14:59:28 GMT -5 leonagwen said:

Is Gucci Gang really bigger than Thunder? You know the answer.

Overall? We know the answer to that. But the Hot 100 measures a 7-day period across several metrics. Using those metrics, Gucci Gang earned more points than Thunder. How you choose to interpret that is your fault.

But Gucci Gang earned more points according to Billboard's current formula. That doesn't necessarily mean Gucci Gang is bigger than Thunder, it just means that it earned more points according to the current formula. You can say song X sold more and song Y has bigger streaming, those numbers are objective. Saying song Z is bigger just because of the formula Billboard chose to use this year is subjective.

[mako]

Wow, probably only 2% of pulse likes Gucci Gang

[Leo ✔]

Nov 21, 2017 6:41:35 GMT -5 mako said:

Wow, probably only 0.00000002% of pulse likes Gucci Gang

Fixed

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Nov 21, 2017 6:08:29 GMT -5 felipe said:

Nov 20, 2017 16:54:17 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Overall? We know the answer to that. But the Hot 100 measures a 7-day period across several metrics. Using those metrics, Gucci Gang earned more points than Thunder. How you choose to interpret that is your fault.

But Gucci Gang earned more points according to Billboard's current formula. That doesn't necessarily mean Gucci Gang is bigger than Thunder, it just means that it earned more points according to the current formula. You can say song X sold more and song Y has bigger streaming, those numbers are objective. Saying song Z is bigger just because of the formula Billboard chose to use this year is subjective.

That's kind of what I said.

[Gary]

The "formula" is the "most accurate" way according to Billboard to measure popularity in a given week.

Gucci Gang is charting higher than most people here want and want to blame Billboard and the formula.

If Gucci Gang were a pop song sung by a female this place would be celebrating rather than crying about the formula

[felipe]

Nov 21, 2017 8:00:58 GMT -5 Gary said:

The "formula" is the "most accurate" way according to Billboard to measure popularity in a given week.

Gucci Gang is charting higher than most people here want and want to blame Billboard and the formula.

If Gucci Gang were a pop song sung by a female this place would be celebrating rather than crying about the formula

I understand Billboard believes their current formula is the best option, until they change it in a month. There is no ONE way to measure a song’s popularity. Billboard does the best they can, doesn’t mean chart positions represent an absolute truth.

Maybe people wouldn’t be complaining if it was a pop song by a female act. People complained about the formula when Harlem Shake was number 1. Just because they didn’t like the song, doesn’t mean their arguments were not valid.

BTW, is it possible to estimate what song made the most money this week between Gucci Gang and Thunder? With the decline of sales, did streaming become more profitable for labels than sales?

[jenglisbe]

Nov 20, 2017 17:14:15 GMT -5 dhill92 said:

Ah, dang it! Rockstar spends yet another week at #1. Blech. And Gucci Gang rising to #3? No, just no. This is driving me nuts. The only reason this somehow leapfrogged Thunder is because of streaming. I mean, how is this even okay?! This is pissing me off big time.

Why wouldn't it be okay that songs people are choosing to listen to are doing well?

[jenglisbe]

Nov 21, 2017 6:01:43 GMT -5 felipe said:

Nov 21, 2017 1:17:33 GMT -5 djkhaled said:

IMHO airplay shouldn't be counted at all, it is not an indicator of what is popular but rather an indicator of payola

Payola or not, if millions of people hear it on the radio that means it's popular and recognizable.

[Gary]

Nov 21, 2017 8:26:38 GMT -5 felipe said:

Nov 21, 2017 8:00:58 GMT -5 Gary said:

The "formula" is the "most accurate" way according to Billboard to measure popularity in a given week.

Gucci Gang is charting higher than most people here want and want to blame Billboard and the formula.

If Gucci Gang were a pop song sung by a female this place would be celebrating rather than crying about the formula

I understand Billboard believes their current formula is the best option, until they change it in a month. There is no ONE way to measure a song’s popularity. Billboard does the best they can, doesn’t mean chart positions represent an absolute truth.

Maybe people wouldn’t be complaining if it was a pop song by a female act. People complained about the formula when Harlem Shake was number 1. Just because they didn’t like the song, doesn’t mean their arguments were not valid.

BTW, is it possible to estimate what song made the most money this week between Gucci Gang and Thunder? With the decline of sales, did streaming become more profitable for labels than sales?

I agree in one sense.  There is no absolute truth.   If you believe Thunder is more popular than Gucci Gang because of whatever criteria you use to measure popularity, that would represent an "absolute truth"  TO YOU.  Many people make their own personal charts.

We are all here though, to see how the leading national charts compare to our own personal  "truth".  The fact that the national chart doesn't sometimes line up with an individual personal truth probably means either:

1.  A song is more popular than you thought it was.
2.  You got your own personal formula wrong.
3.  Billboard announced a major 'chart year' change in their formula.  They have publicly announced before minor tweaks in percentages happen frequently but are not announced.  Even a slight tweak in their percentage would mean it would not match your formula. 

If Billboard messes with their formula to the point that it does not match the formulas used in the prediction threads does that mean they are wrong?

We are all here because we believe that the Billboard formula is the closest possible "absolute truth", otherwise we would not be posting here.

[djkhaled]

Nov 21, 2017 8:26:38 GMT -5 felipe said:

Nov 21, 2017 8:00:58 GMT -5 Gary said:

The "formula" is the "most accurate" way according to Billboard to measure popularity in a given week.

Gucci Gang is charting higher than most people here want and want to blame Billboard and the formula.

If Gucci Gang were a pop song sung by a female this place would be celebrating rather than crying about the formula

I understand Billboard believes their current formula is the best option, until they change it in a month. There is no ONE way to measure a song’s popularity. Billboard does the best they can, doesn’t mean chart positions represent an absolute truth.

Maybe people wouldn’t be complaining if it was a pop song by a female act. People complained about the formula when Harlem Shake was number 1. Just because they didn’t like the song, doesn’t mean their arguments were not valid.

BTW, is it possible to estimate what song made the most money this week between Gucci Gang and Thunder? With the decline of sales, did streaming become more profitable for labels than sales?

Streaming is underrepresented in terms of profitability because airplay does not make a song money. Last week, ghostface killers was in the top 10 revenue despite not even being near the h100 top 10. Gucci gang also made $93000 as opposed to thunder's $95000, and that was when GG was #12. I think it's safe to say that GG is making more money
My numbers are from the HDD revenue chart, btw.

[Fat Ass Kelly Price]

Nov 21, 2017 8:59:54 GMT -5 Codex said:

Nov 20, 2017 17:04:21 GMT -5 Fat Ass Kelly Price said:

Urban music succeeding on the Hot 100 really got you hoes pressed. 😂

If the roles were reversed and pop was smashing on streaming while Urban performing better in sales and airplay, I would not hear a single PEEP out of you hoes.

I’m fairly sure you were one of the many people on here complaining for 5-6 years about how bad dance music is, lol.

It should be noted that “Urban music” isn’t the problem. Songs like Rockstar are generic, but they’re pleasant and catchy. Songs like Gucci Gang are a different story.

A) That's not entirely accurate (re: dance music accusation)
B) Even if it were, it doesn't negate my post in any way, shape, or form
C) Urban music is the problem. People bitched (and continue to bitch) about Rockstarr. I've been on Pulse in some capacity for over ten years. There's nothing controversial about noting the general attitude regarding urban music. It's not the general musical preference for those who frequent this forum. And posters tend to be over-the-top with their dislike of it. I don't understand how someone even halfway objecive would deny this.

[Gary]

Top Ten Breakdown
(NC=not charting)

This Week Title, Artist

1 #1 6 wks Rockstar, Post Malone Featuring 21 Savage
Streaming Streaming 1
Airplay Airplay 5
Digital Digital 5

2 AG Havana, Camila Cabello Featuring Young Thug
Streaming 3
Airplay 3
Digital 1

3 SG Gucci Gang, Lil Pump
Streaming 2
Airplay NC
Digital 18

4 Thunder, Imagine Dragons
Streaming 21
Airplay 1
Digital 4

5 Bodak Yellow (Money Moves), Cardi B
Streaming 4
Airplay 17
Digital 12

6 Too Good At Goodbyes, Sam Smith
Streaming 5
Airplay 9
Digital 7

7 Perfect, Ed Sheeran
Streaming 38
Airplay 10
Digital 3

8 1-800-273-8255, Logic Featuring Alessia Cara & Khalid
Streaming 9
Airplay 11
Digital 22

9 Feel It Still, Portugal. The Man
Streaming 40
Airplay 2
Digital 9

10 Mi Gente, J Balvin & Willy William Featuring Beyonce
Streaming 11
Airplay 14
Digital 13

[deepston]

3 SG Gucci Gang, Lil Pump
Streaming 2
Airplay NC
Digital 18


Ridiculous...

[MilesW1998]

Dropouts:

Wild Thoughts by DJ Khaled ft. Rihanna & Bryson Tiller (48, 2, 21 weeks)
Body Like A Back Road by Sam Smith (49, 6, 41 weeks)
My Choppa Hate N****s by 21 Savage & Metro Boomin (73, 73, 2 weeks)
Pray by Sam Smith (82, 55, 2 weeks)
Wait by Maroon 5 (93, 93, 1 week)
Pull Up N Wreck by Big Sean & Metro Boomin ft. 21 Savage (94, 94, 1 week)
Glorious by Macklemore ft. Skylar Grey (98, 49, 18 weeks)
Mad Stalkers by 21 Savage, Offset & Metro Boomin (99, 99, 1 week)
Nightmare by Offset & Metro Boomin (100, 100, 1 week)

Big Gains (10+)

18. ...Ready For It? by Taylor Swift (30)
44. Silence by Marshmello ft. Khalid (54)
70. Dusk Till Dawn by Zayn ft. Sia (80)

Big Losses (10+)

27. Bank Account by 21 Savage (15)
57. Ghostface Killers by 21 Savage, Offset & Metro Boomin ft. Travis Scott (35)
72. Every Little Thing by Carly Pearce (60)
73. Call It What You Want by Taylor Swift (27)
79. Lemon by N*E*R*D & Rihanna (65)
88. Rap Saved Me by 21 Savage, Offset & Metro Boomin ft. Quavo (64)
91. Questions by Chris Brown (78)

Returning Entries

41. Love. by Kendrick Lamar ft. Zacari
99. Too Much To Ask by Niall Horan

New Entries

14. Walk On Water by Eminem ft. Beyoncé
58. Gummo by 6ix9ine
65. Wanted You by NAV ft. Lil Uzi Vert
69. Female by Keith Urban
93. Betrayed by Lil Xan
96. The Plan by G-Eazy
97. Pick It Up by Famous Dex ft. A$AP Rocky

[Harx]

This Back Road ends here... Finally.

[felipe]

Nov 21, 2017 8:48:32 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Nov 21, 2017 6:01:43 GMT -5 felipe said:

Payola or not, if millions of people hear it on the radio that means it's popular and recognizable.

How can something that is being heard millions of times on the radio not be popular? If people know the song, it's popular.

[felipe]

Nov 21, 2017 9:32:28 GMT -5 Gary said:

We are all here because we believe that the Billboard formula is the closest possible "absolute truth", otherwise we would not be posting here.

I get your point, but following charts, or specifically Billboard, doesn't necessarily mean you "agree" with their current formula or rules (agree meaning you think it's the best possible). I can imagine someone following the charts in the 90s for instance and disagreeing with their decision to not include radio-singles only.

[Gary]

So back to my point

Many people spend a lot of time here each week trying to replicate Billboard's formula.

Just when people had it figured out, Billboard announced that a major shift in weighting would occur for the new chart year (but did not announce the weights)

They also have said many times before that they frequently make minor tweaks to the formula but do not announce it.

Basically, they change it because they believe that is the best formula to keep up with the ever changing market.

The formula changes now no longer match the formulas that people are using in the prediction threads. Is Billboard correct in changing their formula? or are they wrong because they didn't publish it for use in the prediction threads?

My take, it is their formula, they have more data than we do on what the market looks like.  All we here are doing is trying to copy it.

[aapursi]

It blows my mind that Thunder is on top 5, but Whatever It takes is not even charting.

[Normi]

I gotta say I'm impressed by Imagine Dragons
Believer smashes worldwide while US is kinda sleeping on it
While Thunder is smashing worldwide Believer becomes a hit
While Whatever It Takes is smashing worldwide Thunder becomes a hit
I could see them going with I Don't Know Why next - so aybe
I Don't Know Why smashes worldwide while Whatever It Takes becomes a hit?
It'd be crazy to see actually
(And I'll make it up to you for single #5 - legit apart of Believer those are some of my favorite ID songs so let's go)

[Choco]

Ew at Gucci Gang. Also a song that is only doing well on one component charting higher than Thunder which is only lagging on streaming (and not that much, considering it was #21 there last week), feels wrong. (I understand the logic behind it but still...)

[Fat Ass Kelly Price]

Not that I don't think Gucci Gang is a bit high for its low airplay, I do think that just looking at positions for individual components doesn't tell the full story. Look at the relative magnitudes of difference for them. A song could be #1 vs #15 in sales, but the sales difference only be 30k. While #1 vs #15 in airplay or streaming can be HUGE.

With that said, I do think that the formula could undergo a little more tweaking. I don't have an issue with there being a slant towards streaming bc no one purchases music anymore and using that as the primary metric or airplay (which is passive and determined by radio PDs) is dumb. But I do think that Gucci Gang is showing a flaw. Though, I'm not sure how often a case like Gucci Gang happens. And it's not like we haven't seen this type of lopsidedness from songs that had huge sales but no airplay before streaming was a component.

[Au$tin]

Nov 21, 2017 12:33:47 GMT -5 deepston said:

3 SG Gucci Gang, Lil Pump
Streaming 2
Airplay NC
Digital 18


Ridiculous...

Just wanted to point at that like six years ago, a song could be #2 on digital sales and not charting in airplay and be the #3 song of the week. This isn't any different.

[felipe]

Nov 21, 2017 15:11:40 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Nov 21, 2017 12:33:47 GMT -5 deepston said:

3 SG Gucci Gang, Lil Pump
Streaming 2
Airplay NC
Digital 18


Ridiculous...

Just wanted to point at that like six years ago, a song could be #2 on digital sales and not charting in airplay and be the #3 song of the week. This isn't any different.

I agree it's no different. I also saw that as a "flaw" when it happened.