forg
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Post by forg on May 29, 2018 10:40:51 GMT -5
With Boo'd Up ascending in the charts, should we consider the song or even Ella Mai as a potential GF contender?
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dbhmr
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Post by dbhmr on May 29, 2018 12:48:42 GMT -5
ikr. I don't see P!nk or Kelly clarkson getting into general. lol there's no hype, no hits, no critical acclaim. If they want some female nomination, they will go with new hit girls or critically acclaimed album. and Taylor won't get GF nominationt too. her first single was ignored last year by both voters(for pop) and committee(for general). no big hit, no critical acclaim, polarizing new sound. While I don't necessarily want to place a bet on any of these women being nominated in AOTY, I disagree that they lack hits, hype, and acclaim. They all have 2 of the 3 going for them (and plenty of AOTY-nominated albums have lacked one or even two of the three): - The 'critically acclaimed' threshold is generally lower for pop/mainstream albums than other genres. 1989 and 21 have a 76 on Metacritic; 25 has a 75; 24k Magic has a 70. In comparison, Meaning of Life has a 73, reputation has a 71, and Beautiful Trauma has a 62. This is the one category where P!nk comes up short. - Sales/hits are always relative to what the rest of the industry is doing. So far, Taylor and P!nk have the best and second-best selling pop releases, respectively. This is the category where Kelly brings up the rear, though if she would ever announce her tour and attaches a ticket bundle to it, she would likely get enough redemptions for a gold album cert. - I'd actually argue that Kelly has been massively hyped, maybe more than any other pop artist or album this eligibility period. Kelly will be returning to The Voice next season, so her name in general will have continued hype/press around it during the entire voting period that she can try to attach to her album. Her team has done an amazing job of making sure her name stays afloat in a positive manner the entire year (and it's worth pointing out that she's on Atlantic, which has shown in recent years to have strong Grammy pull for its artists). P!nk has been more lowkey, but she did start off her era with positive vibes and respect for her talent/status - I'd wager most people probably don't even know BT's critical reception was so mediocre. This is where Taylor is the one who stumbles; worse than having no hype, she's battling negative hype. Her album sales were very frontloaded and public reaction did match the critics' reaction; that negative perception might follow her when the ballots are released. I have a hard time seeing the Grammys excluding pop from the AOTY category, and Taylor, Kelly, and P!nk are the artists right now within closest reach of that pop slot. Strangely enough Kelly seems to be the most well-positioned of the three just due to all the positive goodwill around her at the moment. I need to see how Ariana's album performs though b/c I think she's in a good position to snatch if Sweetener is really well-received. Also, if Florence submits her album to pop then that might be what gets AOTY nominated and treated as the 'pop' album. I agree with all this, but I think if Ariana Grande delivers a strong pop album that gets in the 70s on Metacritic, they'll more readily nominate her--she'd have the necessary amount of acclaim, she'd have at least one hit, more recent, the general positive public view of her following the concert tragedy, etc. Besides, if Janelle and Kacey are (rightly) nominated, as well, that's two strong female albums in AOTY. No need to get too crazy by nominating 3 or 4 women!! |
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on May 29, 2018 13:47:11 GMT -5
It genuinely wouldn't shock me in the slightest to see Kelly Clarkson up for AOTY. Even if she (disappointingly) doesn't make it in, I at the very least think she'll fare really well in the Pop field. She's been consistently present in the most positive and progressive ways throughout this era, it's easily her most critically acclaimed album, and while it hasn't been as commercially successful as any of her past releases (which sits as much more of a reflection on the changing industry format + streaming vs. sales + the natural age of pop stars of her stature), she's delivered massive performance after massive performance, transitioning from simply being a performer at these awards shows, to being the performer. I think she's positioned herself remarkably well for this year's round of awards. I don't see Pink or Kelly Clarkson getting into AOTY either. Not optimistic about Taylor too, but she at least has a higher chance than Pink. Kacey and Janelle I can see working their way in, moreso Janelle (even though its her worst album with ease). They run into the same issue as St. Vincent because their campaigns are quite after the release, though Kacey's been keeping herself out there, and she has the benefit of a prior nomination in it. Kacey's never been nominated for AOTY. She's been nom'd for Country Album twice, with one win in that category + a win for Country Song, both in '14. |
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Glove Slap
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Post by Glove Slap on May 29, 2018 13:59:39 GMT -5
^Ah my bad, I thought STDP was nominated for AOTY the year it won Country Album.
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Zach
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Post by Zach on May 29, 2018 14:12:04 GMT -5
I'm not seeing how splitting the show into two parts as suggested will have any effect on the quality of the award recipients ("quality" based on critical response). Personally I couldn't care less about what categories are presented on the big stage and all the pop culture fanfare surrounding the main ceremony, I just want the winners of each category to be less about popularity and more about quality. Doesn't matter to me what is presented in the main ceremony versus what is relatively quietly presented elsewhere. The reasons why safer and more popular releases constantly do better than more progressive and less popular releases are clear and understandable but I wish it could change.
And I hate the idea of going back to gender specific categories. Males and females can be and should be judged against each other for their music. This is not a solution of any gender bias that might be found in the Grammy process. It's basically covering up the symptom while allowing the disease to continue to run amok.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on May 29, 2018 14:16:28 GMT -5
^Ah my bad, I thought STDP was nominated for AOTY the year it won Country Album. Should've been </3 |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2018 15:39:12 GMT -5
If Florence submits to best pop vocal album again it's over for Kelly/P!nk/Taylor she gets the pop slot in AOTY. Hopefully she will take pity on the lessers and submit it under best rock album.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2018 15:46:51 GMT -5
I'm not seeing how splitting the show into two parts as suggested will have any effect on the quality of the award recipients ("quality" based on critical response). Personally I couldn't care less about what categories are presented on the big stage and all the pop culture fanfare surrounding the main ceremony, I just want the winners of each category to be less about popularity and more about quality. Doesn't matter to me what is presented in the main ceremony versus what is relatively quietly presented elsewhere. The reasons why safer and more popular releases constantly do better than more progressive and less popular releases are clear and understandable but I wish it could change. And I hate the idea of going back to gender specific categories. Males and females can be and should be judged against each other for their music. This is not a solution of any gender bias that might be found in the Grammy process. It's basically covering up the symptom while allowing the disease to continue to run amok. While I personally wasn't a fan of them merging the genders together (only b/c it makes it harder for my faves in either gender to win something lol #stanlogic), I definitely agree with you; it's a terribly bad look for them to try to walk that decision back now. It's an especially bad look if they do that, and then men sweep the non-gendered categories again. |
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Zach
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Post by Zach on May 29, 2018 15:56:14 GMT -5
If Florence submits to best pop vocal album again it's over for Kelly/P!nk/Taylor she gets the pop slot in AOTY. Hopefully she will take pity on the lessers and submit it under best rock album. If this isn't the truest post in this whole thread then I don't know what is. |
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on May 29, 2018 15:58:06 GMT -5
I definitely don't think the gender-specific categories will be coming back, especially now that TRA's new Diversity Task Force/Board is established and working on next year's show. The last thing they'd ever likely do is pull a separate-but-equal card by divvying up the categories by male & female. It'd make zero sense.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2018 15:58:49 GMT -5
If Florence submits to best pop vocal album again it's over for Kelly/P!nk/Taylor she gets the pop slot in AOTY. Hopefully she will take pity on the lessers and submit it under best rock album. I'd rather her submit to rock, not b/c of wanting Kelly or Pink or Taylor to have a chance but because I actually think Florence has strong chances of being nominated regardless, so she needs to be playing to win. Right now I'm thinking AOTY is going to look like: Kacey [country] Janelle [urban] Gambino [urban] [pop album] [other genre, most likely rock/alt] Janelle and Gambino will probably split votes, and them pop hoes ain't loyal and will vote all kinds of ways. Kacey will have country voters to herself so she currently has the slight edge in this scenario. I think Florence is better served by guaranteeing that she has the rock/alt crowd in her corner than by going in as a pop album. I do think Cardi has an outside shot of a nomination, which could throw this balance off. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2018 16:11:38 GMT -5
If Florence submits to best pop vocal album again it's over for Kelly/P!nk/Taylor she gets the pop slot in AOTY. Hopefully she will take pity on the lessers and submit it under best rock album. I'd rather her submit to rock, not b/c of wanting Kelly or Pink or Taylor to have a chance but because I actually think Florence has strong chances of being nominated regardless, so she needs to be playing to win. Right now I'm thinking AOTY is going to look like: Kacey [country] Janelle [urban] Gambino [urban] [pop album] [other genre, most likely rock/alt] Janelle and Gambino will probably split votes, and them pop hoes ain't loyal and will vote all kinds of ways. Kacey will have country voters to herself so she currently has the slight edge in this scenario. I think Florence is better served by guaranteeing that she has the rock/alt crowd in her corner than by going in as a pop album. I do think Cardi has an outside shot of a nomination, which could throw this balance off. 100% Florence is always a bridesmaid never a bride in Pop Vocal (Taylor and Kelly have both beaten her in that category before) and this year I can't think of any strong rock contenders so I think she has a great shot at actually winning. If she can get the rock vote that is her best bet at getting in AOTY. Let's just pray the campaign last more than a minute this time and she can carry some momentum 🙏 |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2018 17:37:02 GMT -5
Just FYI, I've updated the OP with recent releases and the upcoming ones that I know about, but it's quite possible I've missed something so let me know if I need to add anything!
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Post by ListenToItTwice on May 29, 2018 19:07:30 GMT -5
Going back to gender-split categories would be a bad look, but I do wish they had increased the number of nominees per category when they merged them..
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shayonce
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Post by shayonce on May 30, 2018 5:54:40 GMT -5
While I don't necessarily want to place a bet on any of these women being nominated in AOTY, I disagree that they lack hits, hype, and acclaim. They all have 2 of the 3 going for them (and plenty of AOTY-nominated albums have lacked one or even two of the three): - The 'critically acclaimed' threshold is generally lower for pop/mainstream albums than other genres. 1989 and 21 have a 76 on Metacritic; 25 has a 75; 24k Magic has a 70. In comparison, Meaning of Life has a 73, reputation has a 71, and Beautiful Trauma has a 62. This is the one category where P!nk comes up short. - Sales/hits are always relative to what the rest of the industry is doing. So far, Taylor and P!nk have the best and second-best selling pop releases, respectively. This is the category where Kelly brings up the rear, though if she would ever announce her tour and attaches a ticket bundle to it, she would likely get enough redemptions for a gold album cert. - I'd actually argue that Kelly has been massively hyped, maybe more than any other pop artist or album this eligibility period. Kelly will be returning to The Voice next season, so her name in general will have continued hype/press around it during the entire voting period that she can try to attach to her album. Her team has done an amazing job of making sure her name stays afloat in a positive manner the entire year (and it's worth pointing out that she's on Atlantic, which has shown in recent years to have strong Grammy pull for its artists). P!nk has been more lowkey, but she did start off her era with positive vibes and respect for her talent/status - I'd wager most people probably don't even know BT's critical reception was so mediocre. This is where Taylor is the one who stumbles; worse than having no hype, she's battling negative hype. Her album sales were very frontloaded and public reaction did match the critics' reaction; that negative perception might follow her when the ballots are released. I have a hard time seeing the Grammys excluding pop from the AOTY category, and Taylor, Kelly, and P!nk are the artists right now within closest reach of that pop slot. Strangely enough Kelly seems to be the most well-positioned of the three just due to all the positive goodwill around her at the moment. I need to see how Ariana's album performs though b/c I think she's in a good position to snatch if Sweetener is really well-received. Also, if Florence submits her album to pop then that might be what gets AOTY nominated and treated as the 'pop' album. 1989 and 21 were commercially massive album. that's the difference. for mainstream pop albums, hit single/chart success is the most important thing. then it's not like they're getting lorde ish acclaim. the hype is really not there for both of them. If they want female pop album in AOTY, it would be ariana or camilla or dua lipa. keep in mind that it's committee's decision. |
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slowmo
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Post by slowmo on May 30, 2018 11:31:44 GMT -5
While I think it's probably a long shot for Kelly to get an AOTY nom, I've learned long ago to not count her out of anything.
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Choco
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Post by Choco on May 30, 2018 12:02:16 GMT -5
Unless a large numbers of voting members are fans of The Voice, I don't see how Kelly could get such a big nomination. A lot of them will probably consider last year's nomination enough for a campaign that hasn't lived up to the critical acclaim so far. The competition is fierce, even for the Pop Vocal Album category (Florence, P!nk, Ariana, Shawn Mendes, Camila Cabello, Taylor Swift all have critical acclaim or more hype).
Also Demi Lovato is apparently releasing an album soon. I still think Confident getting a nod that year over Revival was dumb, but so was TMYLM not getting a nod instead of a Coldplay EP.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on May 30, 2018 12:07:56 GMT -5
Kelly literally got nominated for a GRAMMY for "Piece By Piece (Idol Version)" after *one* viral performance of the song. Don't count her out. Competition in Pop fields may be strong this year, but Kelly will always be in, or near, the top of the mix.
Commercial success ≠ GRAMMYs.
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magik
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Post by magik on May 30, 2018 12:55:53 GMT -5
Going back to gender-split categories would be a bad look, but I do wish they had increased the number of nominees per category when they merged them.. That would be a better solution. 6 to 8 nominees. |
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on May 30, 2018 13:44:04 GMT -5
Kelly literally got nominated for a GRAMMY for "Piece By Piece (Idol Version)" after *one* viral performance of the song. Don't count her out. Competition in Pop fields may be strong this year, but Kelly will always be in, or near, the top of the mix. Commercial success ≠ GRAMMYs. I don’t count her out of the Pop fields, but that’s different than the general field categories. She has 6 Vocal noms in Pop and 4 in Pop Album, but has Kelly ever gotten in the general field outside of “Stronger” for ROTY? |
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dbhmr
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Post by dbhmr on May 30, 2018 13:50:08 GMT -5
Kelly literally got nominated for a GRAMMY for "Piece By Piece (Idol Version)" after *one* viral performance of the song. Don't count her out. Competition in Pop fields may be strong this year, but Kelly will always be in, or near, the top of the mix. Commercial success ≠ GRAMMYs. I don’t count her out of the Pop fields, but that’s different than the general field categories. She has 6 Vocal noms in Pop and 4 in Pop Album, but has Kelly ever gotten in the general field outside of “Stronger” for ROTY? Nope. "Stronger" was also nominated for SOTY, but she wasn't a credited writer so that isn't her nom. Honestly I'm just crossing all my fingers for a Pop Album nomination and I'll be more than happy. I don't see her getting into the pop vocal category without a charting song, so unless single #3 magically does the trick, I'll be putting all my eggs in the pop album basket. |
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on May 31, 2018 12:00:43 GMT -5
Portnow’s leaving!
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ampersand
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Post by ampersand on May 31, 2018 12:04:31 GMT -5
Despite the commercial underperformance of Meaning of Life, I'm sure Kelly will score at least a Pop Vocal Album nom. She's had consistent visibility this era and and all of her albums since All I Ever Wanted have been nominated in that category, meaning that all but three of her albums have received a nod. As for the records of hers that haven't, it's important to note that My December was submitted in the rock field, and she still had the Idol stigma with her debut. Wrapped in Red's lack of a nomination is also irrelevant since it was a holiday album.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on May 31, 2018 12:45:07 GMT -5
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on May 31, 2018 13:20:37 GMT -5
Yep. There was no way he was going to be able to weather these storms that've completely consumed him in the last 6 months. Curious to see what this possibly means for the current production staff for the show, too. Wonder how much longer Ken Ehrlich will stick around. He's been with the show for so long. |
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Caviar
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Post by Caviar on May 31, 2018 19:51:55 GMT -5
Thank God! Ken Elrich now needs to GTFO. Completely unforgivable he banned Lorde from performing solo. Lucky for him he was overshadowed by Portnow's comments. Grammys President Neil Portnow to Step DownHaving led the Recording Academy since 2002, he came under fire for comments about women at this year’s GrammysRecording Academy President Neil Portnow will step down from his position next year when his contract expires, Billboard reports. Portnow has been the head of the organization since 2002. In a statement to Billboard, he said, “The evolution of industries, institutions and organizations is ultimately the key to their relevance, longevity and success.” Portnow added, “I’ll be working with our Board to put the various elements in place that will ensure transparency, best practices, and the Academy’s ability to find the very best, brightest, and qualified leadership to take us into our seventh decade of operation.” The position will reportedly be filled by next summer. Earlier this year, a petition—led by Vanessa Carlton—called on Portnow to resign after he said that women should “step up” if they want to be successful in the music industry. “Neil Portnow’s comments show a complete disregard for the many ways women have been overlooked, discredited, and disempowered in music,” the petition read. “At a time when women and men across industries are screaming ‘Time’s Up’ for, not only sexual harassment and assault, but also systemic discrimination that subjugates women and people of color, Portnow’s comments are especially tone-deaf.” After his “step up” comment, Portnow backtracked and apologized, saying that the words “do not convey my beliefs and the point I was trying to make.” The Grammys then announced an independent task force, led by Time’s Up co-founder Tina Tchen, to address biases against women in the music industry. pitchfork.com/news/grammys-president-neil-portnow-to-step-down/ |
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Post by collegedropout on May 31, 2018 20:41:26 GMT -5
Why? Is it because of the his comments about females or was there more? |
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magik
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Post by magik on Jun 1, 2018 11:30:37 GMT -5
I wonder if a woman will take his place. I can see Debra Lee taking over.
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BDGeek
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Post by BDGeek on Jun 1, 2018 23:23:50 GMT -5
For everyone fixated on commercial success determining nominees, it's worth noting Beck's Morning Phase won AOTY in 2015 without a hit and with less than gold sales. Sara Bareilles’ The Blessed Unrest was similarly nominated for AOTY in 2014 with less than gold sales (although she did have a hit with "Brave") and a Metacritic score of 68.
In a year where overall sales are even weaker than those years, I really don't think sales are the most important factor in determining nominations.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2018 20:29:55 GMT -5
I still think Rep is winning, no chance drake gets any general noms?
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