Billboard Hot 100: 3/31/2018

[velaxti]

What nobody has mentioned in this discussion yet is that even as far back as 2012 hip hop/urban songs were doing VERY well on Spotify. Not as well as today, but I remember the first week that Billboard included On-Demand streaming in early 2012, most of the urban songs in the lower part of the chart jumped 10-20 places, and most of the ones in the top part climbed a bit as well (or fell less than expected) and back then streaming was only about 20% of the formula. I also remember being a bit upset that Rack City, N*ggas in Paris and The Motto all peaked slightly before On-Demand streaming got included, since they would all have gotten higher peaks, although at least in The Motto's case it got a really cool chart run from this unique situation lol.

It's just that I see people saying this started in 2015 or whatever, but it happened before then, although I will grant the dominance of hip hop in 2012 wasn't THAT extreme, but hip hop was over-performing on Spotify drastically compared to iTunes at the time (and most of the dance-pop songs weren't really doing that well).

And personally I don't think hip hop is THAT more popular now than it used to be. I think it's just that before most people used to illegally download, so they weren't getting counted in the charts, but now people are getting into the charts. Songs like Motivation, I'm On One, Look At Me Now, etc. seemed very big (Look At Me Now in particular would've been one of the highest streamed songs on US Youtube in 2011 for sure, the number of parody videos it got due to Busta Rhymes's verse was... a lot!).


The biggest shock to me from Spotify over the years is not the rise of hip hop. Because hip hop was already doing very well to begin with, it's just increased since then. The biggest shock has been the decline of alternative music. Alternative music used to over-perform on Spotify in 2012, alternative songs would almost always do better on Spotify than on iTunes. I can't remember for certain, but I'm pretty sure songs like Muse - Madness, Bastille - Pompeii, AWOLNATION - Sail, Linkin Park - Burn It Down, M83 - Midnight City and others all did well on Spotify back then, much better than they'd do now. So that change has been a bigger shock for me than what happened with hip hop.

And remember, dance-pop was dominating in 2012. So it's not so much about the Spotify charts being full of alternative or hip hop songs back then, but it's the fact that alternative and hip hop songs were doing much better than expected on Spotify considering their iTunes sales and airplay, whilst the dance-pop songs were, if anything, doing marginally less well than you'd expect.

[CF15]

Mar 23, 2018 6:52:13 GMT -5 fhas said:

Mar 23, 2018 6:32:08 GMT -5 CF15 said:

The video for "Psycho" just dropped, apparently. Post Malone is coming for that second number-one. It won't be number-one this week, of course, but it may have a good shot at dethroning "God's Plan" the following week. Drake might not even get to ten weeks at #1, this time. As far as I'm concerned, that's fine by me. Even "One Dance" was a better song than "God's Plan", IMO, and I thought that one was somewhat weak. It's not a bad song, but it's had its time. I'm rooting for "Psycho"!
EDIT: I did not realize that someone had already beaten me to it.

There is a ~34k points difference between GP and Psycho and the latter is falling harder despite being only four weeks old. God's Plan's 10th week at #1 (tracking week started today) is almost locked, only an Adele surprise release would dethrone Drake this week.

And... I really hope Psycho reaches #1, but I don't see it happening before the album release.

"Havana" was also on its way down, but it still got t #1 after that boost week. Similarly, "Despacito" was peaking, until the Justin Bieber remix boosted it, and gave it eternal life on the charts. So, it is possible that the video can give the song new life. At the same time, "God's Plan" has clearly peaked, except for in radio play. That is what I would like to have happen.

[jenglisbe]

Mar 23, 2018 15:00:48 GMT -5 CF15 said:

Mar 23, 2018 6:52:13 GMT -5 fhas said:

There is a ~34k points difference between GP and Psycho and the latter is falling harder despite being only four weeks old. God's Plan's 10th week at #1 (tracking week started today) is almost locked, only an Adele surprise release would dethrone Drake this week.

And... I really hope Psycho reaches #1, but I don't see it happening before the album release.

"Havana" was also on its way down, but it still got t #1 after that boost week. Similarly, "Despacito" was peaking, until the Justin Bieber remix boosted it, and gave it eternal life on the charts. So, it is possible that the video can give the song new life. At the same time, "God's Plan" has clearly peaked, except for in radio play. That is what I would like to have happen.

"GP" may be on the decline in other metrics, but it's still way ahead in streaming and has solid sales relative to its competition. Short of a free fall, it isn't falling behind anything soon. It will take "Psycho" having a huge boost for it to threaten. The more likely scenario is something new coming along and taking over #1.

[velaxti]

Mar 23, 2018 15:00:48 GMT -5 CF15 said:

Mar 23, 2018 6:52:13 GMT -5 fhas said:

There is a ~34k points difference between GP and Psycho and the latter is falling harder despite being only four weeks old. God's Plan's 10th week at #1 (tracking week started today) is almost locked, only an Adele surprise release would dethrone Drake this week.

And... I really hope Psycho reaches #1, but I don't see it happening before the album release.

"Havana" was also on its way down, but it still got t #1 after that boost week. Similarly, "Despacito" was peaking, until the Justin Bieber remix boosted it, and gave it eternal life on the charts. So, it is possible that the video can give the song new life. At the same time, "God's Plan" has clearly peaked, except for in radio play. That is what I would like to have happen.

I disagree that Despacito was peaking before the remix, just climbing very slowly. I remember thinking it looked like it could get top 40 and be in the year-end Hot 100 before I ever heard about the remix, and without the remix I still think it would've gone top 50 on pop and rhythmic, although we can never know for sure. Especially after having watched El Perdon's chart success (and Chantaje to a lesser extent) shortly before that, and Despacito was doing even better than them.

[Deleted]

Mar 23, 2018 12:05:20 GMT -5 Sherane Lamar said:

Mar 23, 2018 7:22:06 GMT -5 Leo ✔ said:

I wont mind to see Drake 20 weeks on top as long he Blocks trash Malone

I got a question for you Leo. 

You been on here for a year or two it looks like. You've made 13,000 posts. 

Do you get a message in your mail that says "Warning Level Increased" every single time you make a post that calls an artist trash? Or says something vaguely negative about an artist? 

I think there's something wrong with their automatic mod system right now. I keep getting this "Warning Level Increased" message for making relatively mundane statements. And I can't imagine people getting these messages every time they say something negative about a random artist the way you just did now. 

I think I probably get the message automatically because multiple accounts are abusing the "report" button. But I don't really know. 

But I see posts like yours every day. I don't have to go out of my way to look for them. So it's hard for me to imagine that your 3 more "Trash Malone" posts away from being blocked, since you've been active for so long. 

It only counts if you bash popular artists that are well loved by everyone. If an artist is not well loved, then I do not think that it counts. As far as I know. That is why people can talk bad about guys like Lil Pump all they want nonstop apparently.

[Gary]

Which is really kind of dumb since this is not a fan-site(or at least shouldn't be). An artist "well loved by everyone" really does not mean "EVERYONE", there will be someone out there with a different opinion

Question though - is warnings really automated?

For example, If I click my heels and post "Mariah sucks" 6 times, will I automatically get 6 warnings and get kicked out of here?  - 

[Au$tin]

The report button exists.

Plus, there is a distinct difference between "I hope X performs better than Y because Y sucks." and "Anybody that listens to X is inferior to people that listen to Y." and if you can't discern that difference, then, hey, that's why you're not a mod.

[Sherane Lamar]

Mar 23, 2018 15:18:49 GMT -5 Gary said:

Which is really kind of dumb since this is not a fan-site(or at least shouldn't be). An artist "well loved by everyone" really does not mean "EVERYONE", there will be someone out there with a different opinion

Question though - is warnings really automated?

For example, If I click my heels and post "Mariah sucks" 6 times, will I automatically get 6 warnings and get kicked out of here?  - 

I think it's automated in that if enough accounts hit the report button, then you get the message. 

But I don't know.

[Sherane Lamar]

Mar 23, 2018 15:46:25 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

The report button exists.

Plus, there is a distinct difference between "I hope X performs better than Y because Y sucks." and "Anybody that listens to X is inferior to people that listen to Y." and if you can't discern that difference, then, hey, that's why you're not a mod.

I didn't even say the artist sucks this time around. 

Mar 19, 2018 0:11:37 GMT -5 Sherane Lamar said:

Mar 18, 2018 22:36:31 GMT -5 crazyb said:

Beyonce is at a point in her career where she doesn't need to have #1 hits anymore. or hits at all

Works out well, since she's also at the point in her career where the general public (for lack of a better term) doesn't want to hear her. 

That's just a statement of fact, referring to how the mass of people who pushed Beyonce's into having longevity within the Top 40 (or "general public" as I clumsily describe them) during the 2000's have no longer done that for her in this decade. 

It's a thread specifically about the charts, and I kept it about the charts. Has nothing to do with personal feelings towards the artist. If anything, the stan was derailing by saying that hits don't matter on a thread about hits. (Which is really the only reason I felt the need to clap back).  

Apparently, that constitutes trolling. As Gravey guessed, I happened to be talking about an artist with a salty enough fanbase on this website to end up reported by multiple accounts.

I'm letting this be publicly known because


1) The account that sent me the message was a bot. 
2) I wanted other users (especially new ones) to know to watch out. 
3) I legitimately want to know if other users get these messages all the time from posts they don't expect to. Especially since I see artists being bashed constantly. 

[kanfad]

Is Shawn Mendes really this big or is it just the usual pop frontloading on itunes

[deepston]

Mar 23, 2018 17:12:10 GMT -5 kanfad said:

Is Shawn Mendes really this big or is it just the usual pop frontloading on itunes

Hype + good material + different style from his previous era. 

[jenglisbe]

Mar 23, 2018 17:12:10 GMT -5 kanfad said:

Is Shawn Mendes really this big or is it just the usual pop frontloading on itunes

Yeah he's had consistent succeess with two #1 albums and three top 10 singles. His last single topped 3 airplay charts and sold well overall. I'm sure sales will be a bit front loaded, but he's also been building momentum in his career. Plus keep in mind it doesn't take a huge total to have a big lead in sales anymore.

[Harx]

Mar 23, 2018 17:19:59 GMT -5 deepston said:

Mar 23, 2018 17:12:10 GMT -5 kanfad said:

Is Shawn Mendes really this big or is it just the usual pop frontloading on itunes

Hype + good material + different style from his previous era. 

[deepston]

Mar 23, 2018 17:26:26 GMT -5 Harx said:

Mar 23, 2018 17:19:59 GMT -5 deepston said:

Hype + good material + different style from his previous era. 

To be honest, I hated every single release before this single, his songs sound very immature and childish. This is a complete 180.

[kcdawg13]

What's the first week sales prediction for Shawn?

[Harx]

Mar 23, 2018 17:29:26 GMT -5 deepston said:

Mar 23, 2018 17:26:26 GMT -5 Harx said:

To be honest, I hated every single release before this single, his songs sound very immature and childish. This is a complete 180.

I mean I like it a lot but for me it still pretty much sounds like John Mayer

And I did hate TYB when it was out. still the same style

[Au$tin]

Shawn's latest single is definitely a different sound than his first era. He went from basic white guy acoustic pop to a harder, edgier, rock sound reminiscent of Kings of Leon.

[kcdawg13]

Mar 23, 2018 18:15:43 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Shawn's latest single is definitely a different sound than his first era. He went from basic white guy acoustic pop to a harder, edgier, rock sound reminiscent of Kings of Leon.

Lol

[kindofbiased]

Mar 23, 2018 18:37:08 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Mar 23, 2018 18:15:43 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Shawn's latest single is definitely a different sound than his first era. He went from basic white guy acoustic pop to a harder, edgier, rock sound reminiscent of Kings of Leon.

Lol

this is compared to Stitches mind you

[kcdawg13]

Mar 23, 2018 19:02:21 GMT -5 kindofbiased said:

Mar 23, 2018 18:37:08 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Lol

this is compared to Stitches mind you

Stitches isn't any less white boy crooning as Sex On Fire or Use Somebody.

[Au$tin]

Mar 23, 2018 18:37:08 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Mar 23, 2018 18:15:43 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Shawn's latest single is definitely a different sound than his first era. He went from basic white guy acoustic pop to a harder, edgier, rock sound reminiscent of Kings of Leon.

Lol

? Why is that funny? I didn't say it was rock, it's still very much a pop song, but if you can't hear the difference between something like "Stitches" or "Treat You Better" and "In My Blood," then I really question your ears.

[deepston]

Mar 23, 2018 18:37:08 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Mar 23, 2018 18:15:43 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Shawn's latest single is definitely a different sound than his first era. He went from basic white guy acoustic pop to a harder, edgier, rock sound reminiscent of Kings of Leon.

Lol

I just listened to his single and then that terrible song he did with Camila came up which just proved my point. He had some cute bops with his previous albums but this is definitely a departure from the bubblegum mindless pop he used to create. This is even more evident when you listen to Lost in Japan.

[kcdawg13]

I'm just saying Kings of Leon aren't edgy, even compared to Shawn Mendes. So not a good comparison.

[stetz]

Mar 23, 2018 14:46:24 GMT -5 velaxti said:

What nobody has mentioned in this discussion yet is that even as far back as 2012 hip hop/urban songs were doing VERY well on Spotify. Not as well as today, but I remember the first week that Billboard included On-Demand streaming in early 2012, most of the urban songs in the lower part of the chart jumped 10-20 places, and most of the ones in the top part climbed a bit as well (or fell less than expected) and back then streaming was only about 20% of the formula. I also remember being a bit upset that Rack City, N*ggas in Paris and The Motto all peaked slightly before On-Demand streaming got included, since they would all have gotten higher peaks, although at least in The Motto's case it got a really cool chart run from this unique situation lol.

It's just that I see people saying this started in 2015 or whatever, but it happened before then, although I will grant the dominance of hip hop in 2012 wasn't THAT extreme, but hip hop was over-performing on Spotify drastically compared to iTunes at the time (and most of the dance-pop songs weren't really doing that well).

And personally I don't think hip hop is THAT more popular now than it used to be. I think it's just that before most people used to illegally download, so they weren't getting counted in the charts, but now people are getting into the charts. Songs like Motivation, I'm On One, Look At Me Now, etc. seemed very big (Look At Me Now in particular would've been one of the highest streamed songs on US Youtube in 2011 for sure, the number of parody videos it got due to Busta Rhymes's verse was... a lot!).


The biggest shock to me from Spotify over the years is not the rise of hip hop. Because hip hop was already doing very well to begin with, it's just increased since then. The biggest shock has been the decline of alternative music. Alternative music used to over-perform on Spotify in 2012, alternative songs would almost always do better on Spotify than on iTunes. I can't remember for certain, but I'm pretty sure songs like Muse - Madness, Bastille - Pompeii, AWOLNATION - Sail, Linkin Park - Burn It Down, M83 - Midnight City and others all did well on Spotify back then, much better than they'd do now. So that change has been a bigger shock for me than what happened with hip hop.

And remember, dance-pop was dominating in 2012. So it's not so much about the Spotify charts being full of alternative or hip hop songs back then, but it's the fact that alternative and hip hop songs were doing much better than expected on Spotify considering their iTunes sales and airplay, whilst the dance-pop songs were, if anything, doing marginally less well than you'd expect.

What was the Motto's chart run? I remember when On-Demand was implemented into the Hot 100, but I can't remember specifically how the Motto fit into the picture.

[Au$tin]

Mar 23, 2018 19:54:22 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

I'm just saying Kings of Leon aren't edgy, even compared to Shawn Mendes. So not a good comparison.

Edgier =/= edgy.

[Deleted]

Sherane Lamar whoever reported you for that are idiots. You should not have gotten warned for that.

[iHype.]

I've been wondering will popular artists average career longevity increase with streaming.

It's just hard to imagine these goliaths on streaming ala Drake, Kendrick, Weeknd, etc will just release a project one day and their fans stop rushing to stream it and then push 1-3 songs into the top 10. It's always the same story now even with lower-tier rappers like Future, 21 Savage, Big Sean, etc. They release projects every year (or even few months), atleast 1 song sticks, and the projects ended up going Gold/Platinum at the very least.

Maybe I'm just overthinking and in 2-3 years they'll end up falling off or begin declining somewhat, but streaming has rather kept artists who are big in streams consistently engaged with their listeners non-stop.

[Au$tin]

Mar 23, 2018 22:27:34 GMT -5 @walker9 said:

Sherane Lamar whoever reported you for that are idiots. You should not have gotten warned for that.

No, it was pretty blatant trolling. Also I reported it.

[Deleted]

How was it trolling? Again no one would have dared reported anyone if they talked crap about Lil Pump. I now see her point and she is right.

[Au$tin]

Mar 23, 2018 22:48:04 GMT -5 @walker9 said:

How was it trolling? Again no one would have dared reported anyone if they talked crap about Lil Pump. I now see her point and she is right.

Taking this to RT as to not break the rules and take this thread off topic.