jebsib
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Post by jebsib on Apr 18, 2018 12:00:59 GMT -5
This all makes sense, but it may lead to weird unintended consequences like the bizarre "Aloe Blacc / Tove Lo" chart runs over on the R&B and Rock charts.
If a song has enough points to chart (and could have been on the chart for 20 weeks - even getting certified) but doesn't chart because it is an album cut…
and then suddenly materializes at #15 with a performance-spike or something. it'll look mighty weird.
BTW, are songs still certified Gold & Platinum these days with streams?
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Zach
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Post by Zach on Apr 18, 2018 12:05:25 GMT -5
-Raises hand- I have a question. If a song never enters the top 50 of the Hot 100 at all, does the 20 week recurrent rule still apply to it?
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85la
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Post by 85la on Apr 18, 2018 12:42:44 GMT -5
Also, if it were 2015, I think Ariana would be able to accomplishe #1 as streaming wouldn't have been such a big deal. She did release then, and it wasn't. Focus only peaked at #7, and ironically streaming ended up being the strongest component for that single (video currently has 777 million YouTube views). She definitely is not more popular now than she was leading up to that single, which is why I am puzzled as to why so many think she has a shot at #1. |
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Glove Slap
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Post by Glove Slap on Apr 18, 2018 12:51:19 GMT -5
Also, if it were 2015, I think Ariana would be able to accomplishe #1 as streaming wouldn't have been such a big deal. She did release then, and it wasn't. Focus only peaked at #7, and ironically streaming ended up being the strongest component for that single (video currently has 777 million YouTube views). She definitely is not more popular now than she was leading up to that single, which is why I am puzzled as to why so many think she has a shot at #1. She was the second biggest female artist on Spotify in the US behind Rihanna for 2016. That, plus additional interest after the bombing, would all add up to quite a large interest in whatever she releases. But that said, I don't think she will be able to beat Drake the first week out. She'll likely have whatever constitutes a very good start on sales these days, but Drake is holding well in that department too, and his new single is blowing up very fast on radio (it's already top 10 at Urban, and will be top 10 on Rhythmic in two days). |
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rainie
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Post by rainie on Apr 18, 2018 13:03:51 GMT -5
This all makes sense, but it may lead to weird unintended consequences like the bizarre "Aloe Blacc / Tove Lo" chart runs over on the R&B and Rock charts. If a song has enough points to chart (and could have been on the chart for 20 weeks - even getting certified) but doesn't chart because it is an album cut… and then suddenly materializes at #15 with a performance-spike or something. it'll look mighty weird. BTW, are songs still certified Gold & Platinum these days with streams? Ehh fair but that’ll happen using almost any method of limitng album bombs. For what it’s worth, I’m not in favor of this (I’m kind of on the fence about what to do about album bombs), I just think if they’re gonna limit it this is the logical method. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2018 13:22:33 GMT -5
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kanfad
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Post by kanfad on Apr 18, 2018 14:22:48 GMT -5
I know it isnt for this week but im really super excited for the J.Cole vs Ariana. I really want to see whos gonna get the highest debut on hot 100. Both top ten guaranteed. With Arianas hype, radio deal and probable same day music video release, im wondering if she get a higher debut than a(or multiple) title track from a semi suprise album by the 4th(Drake, Kendrick,Post?) highest streaming artist
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jayhawk1117
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Apr 18, 2018 14:45:19 GMT -5
I know it isnt for this week but im really super excited for the J.Cole vs Ariana. I really want to see whos gonna get the highest debut on hot 100. Both top ten guaranteed. With Arianas hype, radio deal and probable same day music video release, im wondering if she get a higher debut than a(or multiple) title track from a semi suprise album by the 4th(Drake, Kendrick,Post?) highest streaming artist I'm not positive j Cole is a guarantee |
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Post by hot100predictions on Apr 18, 2018 15:19:15 GMT -5
With the insane hype upon Ariana's upcoming release, (more than Drake and Nicki). I feel Ariana will likely reach a top 5 debut, no problem. I also am starting to feel a Adele/Whitney sound for this new single, will be interesting, and again this is a song that will likely only get bigger. If a same day YouTube release is to also occur as well as potential for other countries to participate in charting, I think Ariana would have a shot at least, at #1 for her debut on Billboard, with the UK Singles Chart an almost guarantee #1 debut.
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Post by hot100predictions on Apr 18, 2018 15:24:48 GMT -5
She did release then, and it wasn't. Focus only peaked at #7, and ironically streaming ended up being the strongest component for that single (video currently has 777 million YouTube views). She definitely is not more popular now than she was leading up to that single, which is why I am puzzled as to why so many think she has a shot at #1. Your such an Ariana hater omg. Drake has dominated for 12 weeks now, give Ariana a chance. She will probably be #1 for only a week anyway, her, Selena, Post and Drake will likely dominate this summer too. |
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renfield75
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Post by renfield75 on Apr 18, 2018 15:53:30 GMT -5
Doesn't Ariana Grande have her own fan boards?
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renaboss
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Post by renaboss on Apr 18, 2018 16:06:03 GMT -5
Is Selena Gomez really expected to dominate anything? Objectively speaking. I like her a good deal, and I don't know the amount of promotion that went into her latest releases, but with "Bad Liar" and "Wolves" both peaking at #20... And she has yet to chart any higher than #5 with a song.
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Post by Mayman on Apr 18, 2018 16:27:11 GMT -5
I love Ariana and her music, but they were just stating the statistics and discussing your comment. They weren’t being hateful at all. |
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iHype.
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Post by iHype. on Apr 18, 2018 16:30:07 GMT -5
There really does seem to be a lot of hype in the air regarding Ariana's return. I think she will do well.
This does remind me of how "Problem" was one of the most random breakthroughs ever!
She went from having 1 top 10 the year prior that sold 225K~ first week, the 2 follow-up singles bombing, to suddenly her lead single doing 450K~ in a week! Her debut album itself also wasn't that huge, it hadn't even passed Gold sales at the time Problem was released.
For her to randomly do Taylor/Katy/etc #s was extremely surprising to everyone.
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Post by Mayman on Apr 18, 2018 16:33:35 GMT -5
There really does seem to be a lot of hype in the air regarding Ariana's return. I think she will do well. This does remind me of how "Problem" was one of the most random breakthroughs ever! She went from having 1 top 10 the year prior that sold 225K~ first week, the 2 follow-up singles bombing, to suddenly her lead single doing 450K~ in a week! Her debut album itself also wasn't that huge, it hadn't even passed Gold sales at the time Problem was released. For her to randomly do Taylor/Katy/etc #s was extremely surprising to everyone. I know! I still can’t believe she did that much. She was only a few points away from debuting at #1 then but the top 3 was so close hat week. |
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Apr 18, 2018 19:46:27 GMT -5
Whatever It Takes better make that Top 20 this time.
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Post by Mayman on Apr 18, 2018 20:34:20 GMT -5
I’ve always wondered about this but never have asked, can a song that has not been released yet chart on the Hot 100? Let’s say a leak or a snippet of an unreleased song goes viral and gets enough streams to chart? Would it be allowed to chart?
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 18, 2018 20:41:07 GMT -5
Streaming-airplay-sales
The "snippet" you refer to might be Harlem Shake --- the classic 30 second clip of the song that went viral and sent it to #1 for 5 weeks
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Post by Golden Bluebird on Apr 18, 2018 21:13:23 GMT -5
BTW, are songs still certified Gold & Platinum these days with streams? Yes. A lot of songs actually. Bad and Boujee: 4x Platinum (certified June 20, 2017) Shape of You: 8x Platinum (certified January 12, 2018) Despacito: Diamond (certified January 27, 2018) XO Tour Llif3: 6x Platinum (certified April 6, 2018) Rockstar: 5x Platinum (certified February 26, 2018) Gucci Gang: 2x Platinum (certified March 1, 2018) Havana: 4x Platinum (certified February 28, 2018) Bodak Yellow: 5x Platinum (certified February 28, 2018) Perfect: 4x Platinum (certified February 14, 2018) |
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Post by Mayman on Apr 18, 2018 21:15:14 GMT -5
I remember Adele had an commercial with Hello playing during the Voice UK a few days before it was released. Of course some people uploaded it to Youtube. Had one of those videos gone viral, could it have charted (excluding the airplay that it would have gotten late in the tracking week)?
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85la
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Post by 85la on Apr 18, 2018 22:50:32 GMT -5
I’ve always wondered about this but never have asked, can a song that has not been released yet chart on the Hot 100? Let’s say a leak or a snippet of an unreleased song goes viral and gets enough streams to chart? Would it be allowed to chart? I guess we don't know. I don't think a situation where that would be possible could occur yet, because leaks and snippets tend to be poor quality and probably wouldn't be streamed/downloaded in large enough numbers, and they wouldn't be available on the legal services that count towards Billboard, such as Spotify/Apple, etc., and any YouTube streams of the leak would probably be filtered out and not count either. And then radio of course by and large wouldn't play it and would probably be legally barred from doing so. However, in the past when CD's moved large numbers, albums could chart before their official release date due to street date violations, so Billboard does have a history of allowing music to chart before being legally released. |
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kanfad
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Post by kanfad on Apr 18, 2018 22:53:19 GMT -5
I know it isnt for this week but im really super excited for the J.Cole vs Ariana. I really want to see whos gonna get the highest debut on hot 100. Both top ten guaranteed. With Arianas hype, radio deal and probable same day music video release, im wondering if she get a higher debut than a(or multiple) title track from a semi suprise album by the 4th(Drake, Kendrick,Post?) highest streaming artist I'm not positive j Cole is a guarantee You dont see the albums standout song getting at least 2.5 mill streams per day on spotify and a bit more on apple music? Isnt that close to what deja vu did in 2016? |
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Post by Mayman on Apr 19, 2018 6:38:14 GMT -5
I'm excited that their is so many new releases in the next free weeks, should finally switch up the top 10.
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Post by mysterybolts on Apr 19, 2018 6:56:25 GMT -5
J. Cole is going to absolutely demolish Ariana Grande. She might perform better on iTunes, but that is not even a guarantee because I remember J. Cole having the top two spots on the songs chart with his previous release. She has no chance against him on streaming, though. His album occupied the entire top ten on Spotify for days, and he even set the Spotify streaming record with two albums. Apple Music is going to be even bigger. There is a high chance that one or more of the songs from his album appear on the charts higher than her song, so I have no idea why anyone believes that she might start at number one.
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lazer
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Post by lazer on Apr 19, 2018 8:27:15 GMT -5
If J Cole is gonna release a new album this friday, I hope there is that one song that is upbeat and gets connected with the public.
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Post by Golden Bluebird on Apr 19, 2018 8:42:28 GMT -5
kworb.net/airadio/*** = Dropped or added a format Overall AI (Top 20) - 2018/04/191. (=) BEBE REXHA - Meant To Be f/F.G.L. (199.391) (+1.318) 2. (=) ZEDD/MAREN MORRIS/GREY - The Middle (166.002) (-0.211) 3. (=) DRAKE - God's Plan (161.530) (+1.466) 4. (=) BRUNO MARS & CARDI B - Finesse (139.662) (-3.136) 5. (=) ED SHEERAN - Perfect (130.485) (-1.553) 6. (=) CAMILA CABELLO - Never Be The Same (125.642) (+0.962) 7. (=) THE WEEKND & KENDRICK LAMAR - Pray For Me (122.895) (+1.257) 8. (=) IMAGINE DRAGONS - Whatever It Takes (105.503) (+0.709) 9. (=) DUA LIPA - New Rules (97.756) (+0.326) 10. (=) MAX - Lights Down Low (96.536) (-0.625) 11. (=) CAMILA CABELLO - Havana f/Young Thug (82.622) (-1.217) 12. (=) MAROON 5 - Wait (78.064) (+0.203) 13. (+1) POST MALONE - Psycho f/Ty Dolla $ign (75.731) (+1.747) 14. (-1) G-EAZY & HALSEY - Him & I (74.158) (-1.739) 15. (=) KENDRICK LAMAR & SZA - All The Stars (72.328) (-0.859) 16. (=) PORTUGAL. THE MAN - Feel It Still (72.270) (-0.672) 17. (=) NF - Let You Down (70.206) (-0.850) 18. (=) JASON ALDEAN - You Make It Easy (69.453) (+0.620) 19. (=) BLOCBOY JB - Look Alive f/Drake (67.348) (+0.205) 20. (+1) BAZZI - Mine (66.226) (+0.944) Outside the Top 20: 21. (+2) BRETT ELDREDGE - The Long Way (65.079) (+1.259) 24. (=) SHAWN MENDES - In My Blood (63.974) (+1.407) 34. (+1) DRAKE - Nice For What (49.376) (+1.701)
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Apr 19, 2018 8:43:58 GMT -5
I know it isnt for this week but im really super excited for the J.Cole vs Ariana. I really want to see whos gonna get the highest debut on hot 100. Both top ten guaranteed. With Arianas hype, radio deal and probable same day music video release, im wondering if she get a higher debut than a(or multiple) title track from a semi suprise album by the 4th(Drake, Kendrick,Post?) highest streaming artist I'm not positive j Cole is a guarantee Yep. J. Cole has reached top ten only once. Several of his new songs will chart but top ten is TOTALLY another story. |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 19, 2018 9:27:40 GMT -5
What is the release date of the Ariana single?
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Post by Golden Bluebird on Apr 19, 2018 9:35:08 GMT -5
What is the release date of the Ariana single? 4/20 aka Weed Day |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 19, 2018 9:46:54 GMT -5
Now that the Drake singles are dominating, do people still think Ariana will debut at #1 over and above Drake?
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