garrettlen
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Post by garrettlen on Apr 19, 2018 19:06:25 GMT -5
5/4/18 BH100 Discussion About To Be Lit. Ariana, Taylor, J Cole, maybe even Drake new releases tonight omg... 5/5/18 Got to get the date right. ;) |
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Post by Mayman on Apr 19, 2018 19:33:41 GMT -5
When Post drops his album, how hard do you guys think rockstar will rebound on the chart? It should rise a bit since it will have those extra streams from album listeners. |
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Post by ListenToItTwice on Apr 19, 2018 19:58:37 GMT -5
Early Predictions For 5/4😂😂?? 1. Nice For What 2. God's Plan 3. No Tears Left To Cry (1-2 if same day music video) 4. Psycho 5. New J. Cole 6. Meant To Be 7. Look Alive 8. New J. Cole 9. I Like It 10. Babe (NEW TS; Unless Stupid Sam Hunt Releases Mght Setup As Country Summer Song!!) What's this Babe song? Sugarland's comeback single featuring none other than Taylor Swift Co-written by Swift and Pat Monahan.. The latter is, of course, the worst lyricist in human history, so we'll see how that goes |
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Apr 19, 2018 20:13:53 GMT -5
Also, if it were 2015, I think Ariana would be able to accomplishe #1 as streaming wouldn't have been such a big deal. She did release then, and it wasn't. Focus only peaked at #7, and ironically streaming ended up being the strongest component for that single (video currently has 777 million YouTube views). She definitely is not more popular now than she was leading up to that single, which is why I am puzzled as to why so many think she has a shot at #1. Remember that time Justin Timberlake randomly debuted at #1 with a soundtrack single that followed a sub-par performing double-album release? |
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85la
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Post by 85la on Apr 19, 2018 21:05:16 GMT -5
^ Hah? The 20/20 Experience can in no way, shape, or form be construed as a sub-par performing era, but I get your point that of course it's possible for an artist to come back bigger than they were before, and career trajectories are not always predictable and can have ups and downs. It makes me think of Miley Cyrus with Bangerz, and Mariah Carey coming back on top with Music Box after the only moderately-big Emotions era that was somewhat of a letdown after her debut. It's possible Ariana can reach #1, but I just don't see the renewed hype and interest, outside of this board, but I guess we should get more of a sense of that in as little as 3 hours from now.
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jayhawk1117
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Apr 19, 2018 22:02:04 GMT -5
I have no idea why J Cole is gonna "demolish" anyone. He has a whopping one top 10 to his name with no real hits from the last album. Ariana is dropping the single with the MV off a pretty successful era with much more hype around her. If anything it should be is j Cole gonna be overshadowed?
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 19, 2018 22:09:26 GMT -5
Even if Ariana comes out of the box strong, I don't a #1 debut happening. Simple because Drake isn't going anywhere. The streaming numbers that have been coming out recently have been record numbers, only seen by Drake & no one else
But as said above....we'll see
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jayhawk1117
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Apr 19, 2018 23:06:00 GMT -5
Even if Ariana comes out of the box strong, I don't a #1 debut happening. Simple because Drake isn't going anywhere. The streaming numbers that have been coming out recently have been record numbers, only seen by Drake & no one else But as said above....we'll see oh obviously not, I think maybe a number 2 debut is possible if reception is REALLY good but 3 is probably the debut and peak |
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kanfad
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Post by kanfad on Apr 19, 2018 23:20:47 GMT -5
I have no idea why J Cole is gonna "demolish" anyone. He has a whopping one top 10 to his name with no real hits from the last album. Ariana is dropping the single with the MV off a pretty successful era with much more hype around her. If anything it should be is j Cole gonna be overshadowed? Much more hype? I dont think so. Not in hip hop anyway. She might have airplay and sales over him but those dont make up 60% of the hot 100. |
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wavey.
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Post by wavey. on Apr 19, 2018 23:35:01 GMT -5
Ariana is dropping a single, he's dropping a whole album. He's not "worried" about that.
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kanfad
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Post by kanfad on Apr 19, 2018 23:44:56 GMT -5
Ariana is dropping a single, he's dropping a whole album. He's not "worried" about that. yeah obviously hes not, but its just fun to speculate about. Damn, ariana is really serious about that #1. A discounted single in the first week |
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forg
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Post by forg on Apr 19, 2018 23:50:26 GMT -5
I don't think Ariana will debut at #1 but I like it that they are making an event of this single release
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Post by hot100predictions on Apr 20, 2018 0:20:20 GMT -5
I feel like No Tears Left To Cry will go #1 everywhere in the world except the U.S. Thanks Drake!
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jayhawk1117
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Apr 20, 2018 7:03:18 GMT -5
I guess we'll see lol
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 20, 2018 7:04:38 GMT -5
And probably Canada too
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renaboss
Platinum Member
I don't want to miss a thing.
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Post by renaboss on Apr 20, 2018 7:09:14 GMT -5
Well, the Ariana song went to hell at 40 seconds in. What a letdown.
Let's see how it does.
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Apr 20, 2018 7:25:49 GMT -5
Yeah... Drake is a streaming monster and all... but this is only the second week of 2018 that the #1 song is below 50k points (or first week if Nice For What somehow gets above 50k for the chart dated as April 28).
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Post by hot100predictions on Apr 20, 2018 7:26:37 GMT -5
Ariana already has 61.6k sales and it is only 8am ET, she is heading for a HUGE day, "digital-wise". With J.Cole's new album, expect a top 20 debut for Apple Music, and top 5 or 10 for Spotify. Ariana also has 4.1 million views already on YouTube, expect 15-20 million views by midnight. She keeps this up and she is heading for a top 3 debut FOR SURE on the Hot 100 next week.
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Apr 20, 2018 7:40:53 GMT -5
Realistic ways to get 50k points...
Ariana: 144k sales (20k points) + 42M airplay (5k points) + 37.5M on-demand/YouTube streams (25k points)
J. Cole: 36k sales (5k points) + 8.4M airplay (1k points) + 66M on-demand/YouTube streams (44k points)
Maybe it's easier for Ariana to sell 144k than to have 37M streams, but it's just an estimative.
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 20, 2018 7:51:48 GMT -5
It is a new single - it is 69 cents - it is leading itunes
Now to see if it can do what no other pop song has done before it --- Drake-level streaming numbers
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Apr 20, 2018 7:54:47 GMT -5
I think Taylor Swift came pretty close with LWYMMD
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Apr 20, 2018 7:56:50 GMT -5
It seems that Ariana is definitely trying for #1. Her new song is discounted on iTunes and has a video for it. We'll see what kind of numbers we see from today to see whether it may actually have a chance.
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Post by Golden Bluebird on Apr 20, 2018 8:14:32 GMT -5
kworb.net/airadio/*** = Dropped or added a format Overall AI (Top 20) - 2018/04/201. (=) BEBE REXHA - Meant To Be f/F.G.L. (200.159) (+0.768) 2. (=) ZEDD/MAREN MORRIS/GREY - The Middle (165.715) (-0.287) 3. (=) DRAKE - God's Plan (162.586) (+1.056) 4. (=) BRUNO MARS & CARDI B - Finesse (135.784) (-3.878) 5. (=) ED SHEERAN - Perfect (128.905) (-1.580) 6. (=) CAMILA CABELLO - Never Be The Same (127.952) (+2.310) *** 7. (=) THE WEEKND & KENDRICK LAMAR - Pray For Me (123.055) (+0.160) 8. (=) IMAGINE DRAGONS - Whatever It Takes (106.230) (+0.727) 9. (=) DUA LIPA - New Rules (98.605) (+0.849) 10. (=) MAX - Lights Down Low (94.394) (-2.142) *** 11. (=) CAMILA CABELLO - Havana f/Young Thug (81.943) (-0.679) 12. (=) MAROON 5 - Wait (77.903) (-0.161) 13. (=) POST MALONE - Psycho f/Ty Dolla $ign (77.406) (+1.675) 14. (=) G-EAZY & HALSEY - Him & I (73.358) (-0.800) 15. (+1) PORTUGAL. THE MAN - Feel It Still (72.212) (-0.058) 16. (-1) KENDRICK LAMAR & SZA - All The Stars (71.228) (-1.100) 17. (+1) JASON ALDEAN - You Make It Easy (69.991) (+0.538) 18. (-1) NF - Let You Down (69.500) (-0.706) 19. (=) BLOCBOY JB - Look Alive f/Drake (68.531) (+1.183) 20. (=) BAZZI - Mine (67.207) (+0.981) Outside the Top 20: 21. (=) BRETT ELDREDGE - The Long Way (66.330) (+1.251) 27. (-1) MIGOS - Stir Fry (57.533) (-1.301) 29. (-1) JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE - Say Something f/C Stapleton (56.143) (-1.095) 22. (+2) SHAWN MENDES - In My Blood (65.048) (+1.074) 31. (+3) DRAKE - Nice For What (51.062) (+1.686)
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Post by Golden Bluebird on Apr 20, 2018 8:15:25 GMT -5
It is a new single - it is 69 cents - it is leading itunes $0.69 discount on 4/20. Super nice. |
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lazer
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Post by lazer on Apr 20, 2018 8:22:02 GMT -5
Sales are going well for No Tears Left To Cry, radio is promoting the hell out of it, but I wonder how it will do in streaming.
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 20, 2018 8:38:03 GMT -5
Well if you guys put the song on continuous repeat on all your mobile devices, that could help - LOL
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Post by hot100predictions on Apr 20, 2018 8:38:40 GMT -5
Must be a laugh in streaming but Sugarland and Taylor Swifts collab, Babe, is already number two on iTunes. Ariana dominating digital sales however. Up to 66 thousand sales for Apple on last update, wonder how streamings going because they haven't updated the list probably top 20 or 30 I can expect by now. J. Cole was dominating that viewpoint at last check 15 minutes ago. Will monitor and update by 5pm or so
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jayhawk1117
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Apr 20, 2018 9:38:00 GMT -5
It seems like the general consensus was right. Ari is doing pretty incrdible on sales and radio and J Cole has control over on streaming.
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monkeydluffy
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Post by monkeydluffy on Apr 20, 2018 10:18:54 GMT -5
If Ari debuts in the top ten then won’t she keep adding on to her record of lead singles debuting in top ten?
The Way - 9
Problem - 3
Dangerous Woman - 10
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kanfad
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Post by kanfad on Apr 20, 2018 10:19:25 GMT -5
Looks like KOD is the standout song ala deja vu. He just dethroned nice for what on apple music. Looks like its Drakes job to stop people from straight up dominating the apple music charts with their albums.
A hero we dont deserve
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