Billboard Hot 100: 4/28/2018

[ListenToItTwice]

Apr 18, 2018 21:15:14 GMT -5 Mayman said:

I remember Adele had an commercial with Hello playing during the Voice UK a few days before it was released. Of course some people uploaded it to Youtube. Had one of those videos gone viral, could it have charted (excluding the airplay that it would have gotten late in the tracking week)?

I believe it was less than 30 seconds of the song so it was a moot point... I’m sure Billboard would have created a rule that songs can chart pre-release anyway. Just like albums with hit tracks can’t chart before release

[Au$tin]

Apr 19, 2018 9:46:54 GMT -5 Gary said:

Now that the Drake singles are dominating, do people still think Ariana will debut at #1 over and above Drake?

Assuming the song is well received, Ariana should have no problem getting #1 in digital sales, and she'll probably have a pretty strong debut (for 2018) from there. 75-125k seems like a good ballpark. I could even see her going towards 150k if it's spectacular.

In airplay, she'll have a strong debut. According to our resident radio insider, she'll have multiple radio deals with the song being sent immediately to three major formats (pop, rhythmic, and hot AC). I could see a debut of 20 million and over the course of her first full week pull in around 50-60 million AI.

Streaming is what is going to be interesting to watch. Ariana has never been to #1 on streaming. She is a streaming darling, however only in long term. Her totals are great, but she's never had a single week of great streaming. She just streams consistently in the upper regions for lengthy periods and has slow declines. However, the DW era definitely upped her star power, so her first week of streaming could be pretty high, especially if the video drops the same day, which seems possible since news of the video is leaking.

Over on Spotify, I believe she'll debut at least top two on her first day, if not #1, but then fall a bit as the week progresses. Apple Music should hold similar results. If she drops the video, she should have no problems snatching #1 there first day and she can probably pretty easily hold it for the week to be #1 on YouTube. All of this would probably have her debuting at #2 (with video) or #3 (without video) in streaming. Of course, if the song is widely accepted as great or the video is a touching memorial that goes viral, that could drastically improve the numbers. But let's pretend we know what the song sounds like, and it's just a general good song well received by her fans and pop listeners, leaving her with the numbers stated above.

She would have a good advantage in sales, but a disadvantage in streaming and airplay. If she opens up at #2 in streaming, above GP, then she'd be above GP in both metrics, but the airplay deficit behind GP might be enough for it to pass it in total points. I just don't think, under normal circumstances, she'll debut any higher than #3. The two Drake songs are high on all three components, and Ariana will have that airplay deficit that will eat into her digital sales lead.

Now of course, if the song overperforms for whatever reason, given a viral video or a touching moment in the vein of something like Praying or Piece by Piece, #1 could be in the cards.

It's just a good thing they moved up her release because there's no way she'd be able to hold her own against Post Malone next week. His album bomb is going to be insane and Psycho will get an incredible boost, I don't see any scenario where it misses out on #1 barring a surprise Adele/Ed Sheeran/Drake collab release.

[Gary]

Cardi B's 'I Like It' Spurs 2,520% Streaming Gain For Pete Rodriguez's Original 'I Like It Like That'

The Blackout All-Stars' '90s cover also surges.

As Cardi B scores her fifth top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart (dated April 21), as "I Like It," with Bad Bunny and J Balvin, debuts at No. 8, Pete Rodriguez's 1967 boogaloo hit "I Like It Like That" sports a massive 2,520 percent streaming gain, according to Nielsen Music.

Thanks to "I Like It," Rodriguez's original recording, which Cardi B samples on her new top 10, vaulted to 316,000 U.S. on-demand streams in the tracking week ending April 12.
Rodriguez's song concurrently re-enters the Tropical Digital Song Sales chart at No. 13.

Rodriguez's original version, written by Tony Pabon and Manny Rodriguez, previously experienced a resurgence in 1994, when The Blackout All-Stars recorded a cover of the track, titled "I Like It," for the comedy-drama film I Like It Like That. Their remake reached No. 19 on the Dance Club Songs chart after the movie's release.

In 1996, the group's cover was revived in a Burger King commercial and it rose to No. 25 on the Hot 100, No. 26 on Radio Songs and No. 15 on the Rhythmic Songs airplay chart in 1997.

The Blackout All-Stars were a one-off Latin supergroup consisting of Ray Barretto, Sheila E., Tito Puente, Tito Nieves, Paquito D'Rivera, Dave Valentin and Grover Washinton, Jr. They recorded just that one song together, specifically for I Like It Like That.

Surely sparked by Cardi B's new song, The All-Stars' "I Like It" cover vaulted by 730 percent to 16,000 U.S. on-demand streams in the tracking week.

[Gary]

How YouTube Vlogger Queen Naija's Viral Breakup Inspired Her Hot 100 Breakthrough

YouTube vlogger Queen Naija knew she had a potential hit when she penned “Medicine,” an R&B groove about getting revenge on a cheating lover, in late 2017. With its hip-hop-infused beat, silky, lip-glossed vocals and Instagram caption-ready lyrics, the song checked all the boxes for chart success.

The only problem? That cheating lover in the song was inspired by her then-husband and YouTube channel co-star Chris Sails, and releasing the track would mean admitting to 2.2 million subscribers that the couple they’d followed for years was on the verge of breaking up.

The two began dating in 2013, and launched their relationship-focused vlog "Chris and Queen" two years later while living in Section 8 housing in Detroit, recognizing the potential monetary value of their large Instagram following. “We were couple goals,” sighs Queen, noting that their dozens of videos -- with adorable titles like “SURPRISING MY HUSBAND WITH HIS DREAM CAR” or “DIRTY TRUTH OR DARE!!!” -- regularly racked up close to one million views apiece. So after Queen created a solo channel last April and moved in with her brother, it wasn't long before fans began asking questions.

“When they saw that I stopped doing videos with [Sails] on our channel, the fans were trying to put two and two together, like, ‘What’s going on?’” the 22-year-old remembers. “I didn't want to answer. We were a public couple, and we had a big platform -- it was embarrassing.”

Rather than film a video announcing their breakup, Queen turned to music -- a former passion that led her to audition for American Idol in 2014, where she made it to the top 50 -- but one she all but abandoned after getting booted off the show. “Medicine,” billed as Queen’s “explanation” to her followers, went live on her YouTube channel a few hours before midnight this past New Year’s Eve.

In the months since, Queen’s initial song post has logged more than 17 million plays, and an official music video released last month capitalized on the growing interest, already garnering 16 million views. She's not the only YouTuber to venture into music, as 2017 saw vlog stars like Jake Paul and RiceGum land in the deep end of the Billboard Hot 100. But Queen's own “Medicine” made an astounding No. 45 debut on the Hot 100 for the week of April 14, a feat for any emerging act -- let alone an unsigned social media star who never intended to break outside YouTube. The track currently sits at No. 11 on Hot R&B Songs, down from a No. 8 peak. “It was supposed to be strictly for the fans,” Queen reflects, “but then it just went crazy.”

Part of the song’s appeal, she thinks, comes from addressing the double standard applied to women in heterosexual relationships. Or, as she puts it: “You know how a girl can cheat, and a guy will just leave them, but a guy can cheat, and a girl [is expected to] give them chance after chance? As soon as you give [an adulterer] a taste of their own medicine, they want to trip out -- [as if] they didn't do a million things to you.”

Over a simmering R&B groove, Queen flips the narrative: "How would you like it if I do the things you do?" she purrs, threatening through honeyed vocals, "Don't get it twisted, I can play this game too." From "putting you on disturb" to FaceTiming a Tinder feed of other dudes, Queen imagines the actions of a bolder, empowered alter ego, a 2018 variation on Beyoncé’s “If I Were A Boy.”

“Now, I can’t go anywhere without being noticed,” says Queen of her newfound fame as a singer, though she adds with a cheeky laugh, “I don’t mind.” She reveals that she's currently fielding offers from several labels, and recently took a meeting at Warner Bros. -- which she has since posted footage from on YouTube, of course. While Queen is staying in New York City at the moment, she's considering getting her own place in Atlanta. And she finds herself vlogging less as she works on an EP: “I don’t want to just throw anything out there, but know I’m not a one-hit wonder,” she quips.

As Queen disclosed in a separate video posted just days after the “Medicine” official clip went live, she and Sails have since filed for divorce and plan to share custody of their three-year-old son. (Sails, for his part, took over the duo’s original account and continues posting vlogs for 2.9 million subscribers today.)

But music industry potential aside, Queen says releasing the intensely personal track -- and receiving a wave of support in return -- has given her the confidence to focus on herself as she re-enters single life. And she's hoping it can serve as a dose of extra strength for listeners, too.

“It hurts to think you’re going to spend your life with somebody and you don’t, but life goes on. I’m doing things I never thought I could do without him,” she explains. “Just how Beyoncé said, the best revenge is your paper.”

[tanooki]

When Post drops his album, how hard do you guys think rockstar will rebound on the chart?

[kanfad]

Apr 19, 2018 8:43:58 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Apr 18, 2018 14:45:19 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

I'm not positive j Cole is a guarantee

Yep. J. Cole has reached top ten only once. Several of his new songs will chart but top ten is TOTALLY another story.

He almost(#7 and #11) debuted 2 songs in the top ten with his last album. And that was in 2016. Now, with streaming so big that we've  had streaming infused top ten debuts almost every week since God's Plan, it seems like a sure thing to me

[Gary]

They won't stay around long if they do chart high. Only two songs in his chart history were top 20 for more then one week

[jenglisbe]

Apr 19, 2018 13:14:50 GMT -5 Gary said:

They won't stay around long if they do chart high. Only two songs in his chart history were top 20 for more then one week

Sure, but the conversation started in regards to how songs will debut on the relevant Hot 100.

[Gary]

Apr 19, 2018 13:26:22 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Apr 19, 2018 13:14:50 GMT -5 Gary said:

They won't stay around long if they do chart high. Only two songs in his chart history were top 20 for more then one week

Sure, but the conversation started in regards to how songs will debut on the relevant Hot 100.

Yes...I added a related comment to it....so what?

The songs don't have staying power.

[Gary]

Drake Earns Third-Largest On-Demand Audio Streaming Debut With 'Nice for What'
News
By Kevin Rutherford | April 19, 2018 12:45 PM EDT

The song debuts atop On-Demand Streaming Songs with 45.8 million on-demand audio streams.

Drake’s “Nice for What” not only starts at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100, but it also makes a splashy debut on Billboard’s Streaming Songs and On-Demand Streaming Songs charts, bowing atop both lists dated April 21.
While the 60.4 million-stream start on Streaming Songs is a hefty sum in its own right, it’s the on-demand audio number that really sets “Nice” apart. The song racks up 45.8 million streams on on-demand, audio-only services, giving it the third-largest week in the chart’s history.

The only song to best it? Surprise: Drake’s “God’s Plan,” which opened with 68 million on-demand audio streams its first week (Feb. 3) and followed with a 57.4 million-stream week Feb. 10.
“God’s Plan’s" third week (Feb. 17) is the fourth-best week in the chart’s history (45.4 million), with Post Malone the only other artist besides Drake in the top five, with the debut week of “Psycho,” featuring Ty Dolla $ign, fifth with 45.2 million (March 10).

The start of “Nice” is slightly more impressive when noting that it premiered on a Friday night (April 6), meaning that it missed virtually a day of streams and sales for the chart’s tracking week, which runs Friday-Thursday.
Drake now owns four No. 1s on Streaming Songs, tying Justin Bieber for the most in the chart’s six-year history, while his latest No. 1 on On-Demand Streaming Songs is his eighth, putting him comfortably atop the all-time list, two ahead of Bieber’s six.

[hot100predictions]

5/4/18 BH100 Discussion About To Be Lit.

Ariana, Taylor, J Cole, maybe even Drake new releases tonight omg...

[Gary]

Yeah we need something new to talk about -- while we are waiting - an Elvis discussion in the other thread - LOL

[hot100predictions]

Early Predictions For 5/4😂😂??
1. Nice For What
2. God's Plan
3. No Tears Left To Cry (1-2 if same day music video)
4. Psycho
5. New J. Cole
6. Meant To Be
7. Look Alive
8. New J. Cole
9. I Like It
10. Babe (NEW TS; Unless Stupid Sam Hunt Releases Mght Setup As Country Summer Song!!)

[lazer]

Apr 19, 2018 15:41:46 GMT -5 hot100predictions said:

Early Predictions For 5/4😂😂??
1. Nice For What
2. God's Plan
3. No Tears Left To Cry (1-2 if same day music video)
4. Psycho
5. New J. Cole
6. Meant To Be
7. Look Alive
8. New J. Cole
9. I Like It
10. Babe (NEW TS; Unless Stupid Sam Hunt Releases Mght Setup As Country Summer Song!!)

What's this Babe song?

[kindofbiased]

If Ariana will debut in the top 2 with a video then she's debuting in the top 2. Dave Meyers (directer for Havana, Humble, Where Have You Been, etc.) posted a picture on instragram implying that he directed the video. I wouldn't be surprised if it came out with the song.

[Mayman]

I think the video will come out tonight, Olly posted in its thread that the video is ready.

[mysterybolts]

Apr 19, 2018 13:14:50 GMT -5 Gary said:

They won't stay around long if they do chart high. Only two songs in his chart history were top 20 for more then one week

His previous album was not very commercial or radio-friendly, so the fact that he performed that well with it is a testament to his strength. It is like his To Pimp a Butterfly. His 2014 Forest Hill Drive, his first album to break Spotify's streaming record, has song that debuted in Spotify top 200 back in 2014 and has not left it since. With streaming being even bigger now and assumed radio support for a more commercial album, I can see him staying there a while. 

[Harx]

Apr 19, 2018 15:50:31 GMT -5 lazer said:

Apr 19, 2018 15:41:46 GMT -5 hot100predictions said:

Early Predictions For 5/4😂😂??
1. Nice For What
2. God's Plan
3. No Tears Left To Cry (1-2 if same day music video)
4. Psycho
5. New J. Cole
6. Meant To Be
7. Look Alive
8. New J. Cole
9. I Like It
10. Babe (NEW TS; Unless Stupid Sam Hunt Releases Mght Setup As Country Summer Song!!)

What's this Babe song?

He probably thinks that Styx is making a comeback

[kanfad]

Apr 19, 2018 16:13:30 GMT -5 Mayman said:

I think the video will come out tonight, Olly posted in its thread that the video is ready.

I hope its something really special or has the potential to go viral, cause she needs all the help she can get in streaming. Even with her respectable streaming power(for a pop artist) i really dont even see her making the top 15 of on-demand songs chart

[hot100predictions]

Babe is a new country pop single expected to premiere tonight from Sugarland with a feature from Taylor Swift. Song will likely be promoted every hour tomorrow on iHeartRadio Country stations. This is going to be one hell of a release day tomorrow. Geez.

[hot100predictions]

DJs promoting the hell out of Ariana's new single. Omg. Drake watch out lol. Ariana most be loving all the attention tbh

[renaboss]

I'm confused, is Ariana's song dropping TONIGHT or tomorrow night? Is it midnight tonight?

[hot100predictions]

Apr 19, 2018 17:18:17 GMT -5 renaboss said:

I'm confused, is Ariana's song dropping TONIGHT or tomorrow night? Is it midnight tonight?

Tonight and promotion is SPECTALUAR. She is releasing the music video with the release tonight too.

[hot100predictions]

Can someone tell me if airplay will count towards the 4/28/18 billboard chart for Ariana's release? Or is it for the 5/4/18 chart? Thanks.

[areyoureadytojump]

Isn't airplay still Monday-Sunday??

Streaming and sales are Friday - Thursday.

[kindofbiased]

The promo for the new single is great. A return to twitter on Tuesday, the build up to the cover art on Instagram yesterday, the music video teaser today, the song and video drops at midnight, and it impacts radio immediately. Smash.

[Mayman]

^ I think so. 4 days of airplay will go towards this upcoming chart.

[renaboss]

Teaser very promising. I have a feeling this is gonna end up being Ariana's SONG, you know? Regardless of chart position.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Apr 19, 2018 11:59:06 GMT -5 tanooki said:

When Post drops his album, how hard do you guys think rockstar will rebound on the chart?

I hope it does rebound once Beerbongs & Bentleys drops.

[Deleted]

Apr 19, 2018 18:31:11 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Apr 19, 2018 11:59:06 GMT -5 tanooki said:

When Post drops his album, how hard do you guys think rockstar will rebound on the chart?

I hope it does rebound once Beerbongs & Bentleys drops.

that doesnt answer her question