Billboard Hot 100: 5/5/2018

[Sherane Lamar]

Apr 26, 2018 21:25:00 GMT -5 velaxti said:

Apr 26, 2018 19:45:30 GMT -5 Sherane Lamar said:

Pretty much nobody takes Kanye seriously on that level anymore. We've all accepted that he's a batshit crazy person who often puts out fantastic albums. 

And Eminem flopping has nothing to do with Trump. It has to do with Revival being terrible, and him not evolving with the changing landscape. 

The people who supported Eminem in 2010-2014, were all young-ish Pop music fans who listened to Pop radio and liked Rihanna, Nicki Minaj, Macklemore and other successful urban/pop artists at the time. 

They weren't a bunch of grumbling old Trump supporters jamming out to "The Monster" and "Love The Way You Lie". 

I. (polls)

That's interesting and all, but the actual results for the nationwide election show that things are exactly as we'd expect them to be. Youngest are most Dem. Oldest are more Republican. With only 35% of 18-24 year olds voting for Trump. 

So that means that among the demographic that was in high school and college when Eminem was at his commercial peak, only 1 in 3 of them ever voted Trump in the first place. Actually, more like 1 in 6, since half of them don't vote. 

And of those 1 in 6, how many of them would actually be pissed off about Eminem dissing Trump? How many of them are the type of people to have ever listened to Eminem in the first place? How many of them decided to vote for Trump only because they thought he was better than Hillary? How many hardcore Eminem fans would actually be bothered by Eminem coming after yet another celebrity, like he's been doing his entire career (to Dems and Republicans alike)?

At the end of the day, it's clear that a big majority of the demo that made Eminem successful in the first half of this decade don't have positive feelings about Trump. 

The thing is, you don't even need half of people in order to have a successful debut. Or a successful song run. Enough people were interested in "Walk on Water" to make it debut at #11. But they immediately rejected it the next week because of how terrible it was. Not because they were Trump supporters. And then the same basic thing happened with "River". 

I mean think about it. 6ix9ine, Lil Pump and XXX are doing better than Eminem. These guys are vehemently hated by so many vocal people, yet it just makes them that much stronger. They don't need most people to like them. They just need to find a strong enough audience to keep them at the level they've been on. Eminem has not been able to do that, outside of some relatively weak support towards "River". If he dissed Trump AND made good music (like Kendrick Lamar), then he absolultely would have maintained that niche.


I think the publicity of Eminem attacking Trump made him flop less than he otherwise would have. I think if he didn't attack Trump, he would have flopped even harder. 

[Abbaschand]

Just like J. Cole, we Indonesians know nothing about Kanye beside he's T-Swift's enemy and Kim's husband. I think his best hit here was FourFiveSeconds.

[kanfad]

Im confused. Did hdd forget to track NTLTC cause i dont see it on the streaming songs chart

[filthy]

I can't see any youtube numbers for Kevin's Heart on kworb. Am I the only one?

[fhas]

Apr 27, 2018 2:22:58 GMT -5 kanfad said:

Im confused. Did hdd forget to track NTLTC cause i dont see it on the streaming songs chart

Yes, I think they forgot. This also happened with Perfect more than one time and that's why I don't take their Streaming Charts so seriously. It's kinda accurate if you look at the positions, but the streams (especiallly for big releases) aren't accurate.

It's important to note that NTLTC was slightly below God's Plan on both Spotify and AM for most of the week, so if GP is at 19,958,210 streams, No Tears would've been at ~18.5-19.5M.

[osnarful]

Eminem is just too old for today´s kids. That´s it.

[annoymous1]

Post album dropped i expect some big streaming numbers from post today and is already hit #1 on iTunes.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^It won't hurt that the album has 18 tracks in it.

[Golden Bluebird]

kworb.net/airadio/

*** = Dropped or added a format

Overall AI (Top 20) - 2018/04/27
1. (=) BEBE REXHA - Meant To Be f/F.G.L. (198.056) (-1.621)
2. (=) ZEDD/MAREN MORRIS/GREY - The Middle (168.416) (+0.796)
3. (=) DRAKE - God's Plan (166.682) (+0.317)
4. (=) CAMILA CABELLO - Never Be The Same (139.659) (+2.374)
5. (=) BRUNO MARS & CARDI B - Finesse (121.949) (-0.921)
6. (=) ED SHEERAN - Perfect (119.799) (-0.864)
7. (=) THE WEEKND & KENDRICK LAMAR - Pray For Me (119.510) (-0.078)
8. (=) IMAGINE DRAGONS - Whatever It Takes (109.613) (+0.540)
9. (=) DUA LIPA - New Rules (97.574) (-0.874)
10. (=) MAX - Lights Down Low (90.290) (-0.391)
11. (=) POST MALONE - Psycho f/Ty Dolla $ign (80.421) (-0.244)
12. (=) MAROON 5 - Wait (78.366) (-0.591) ***
13. (=) CAMILA CABELLO - Havana f/Young Thug (76.530) (-0.708)
14. (=) JASON ALDEAN - You Make It Easy (74.208) (+0.703)
15. (=) BLOCBOY JB - Look Alive f/Drake (73.984) (+0.658)
16. (=) BAZZI - Mine (71.339) (+0.349)
17. (=) PORTUGAL. THE MAN - Feel It Still (70.297) (-0.184)
18. (=) SHAWN MENDES - In My Blood (69.659) (+0.545)
19. (=) G-EAZY & HALSEY - Him & I (66.691) (-0.502)
20. (+3) DRAKE - Nice For What (65.687) (+2.354)

Outside the Top 20:
35. (=) LUKE COMBS - One Number Away (48.373) (+1.418)
36. (=) TAYLOR SWIFT - Delicate (47.117) (+1.049)
39. (+6) ARIANA GRANDE - No Tears Left To Cry (44.300) (+5.421)
58. (+5) ELLA MAI - Boo'd Up (31.832) (+1.034)

[renfield75]

Apr 26, 2018 22:06:42 GMT -5 Sherane Lamar said:

Apr 26, 2018 21:25:00 GMT -5 velaxti said:

I. (polls)

That's interesting and all, but the actual results for the nationwide election show that things are exactly as we'd expect them to be. Youngest are most Dem. Oldest are more Republican. With only 35% of 18-24 year olds voting for Trump. 

So that means that among the demographic that was in high school and college when Eminem was at his commercial peak, only 1 in 3 of them ever voted Trump in the first place. Actually, more like 1 in 6, since half of them don't vote. 

And of those 1 in 6, how many of them would actually be pissed off about Eminem dissing Trump? How many of them are the type of people to have ever listened to Eminem in the first place? How many of them decided to vote for Trump only because they thought he was better than Hillary? How many hardcore Eminem fans would actually be bothered by Eminem coming after yet another celebrity, like he's been doing his entire career (to Dems and Republicans alike)?

At the end of the day, it's clear that a big majority of the demo that made Eminem successful in the first half of this decade don't have positive feelings about Trump. 

The thing is, you don't even need half of people in order to have a successful debut. Or a successful song run. Enough people were interested in "Walk on Water" to make it debut at #11. But they immediately rejected it the next week because of how terrible it was. Not because they were Trump supporters. And then the same basic thing happened with "River". 

I mean think about it. 6ix9ine, Lil Pump and XXX are doing better than Eminem. These guys are vehemently hated by so many vocal people, yet it just makes them that much stronger. They don't need most people to like them. They just need to find a strong enough audience to keep them at the level they've been on. Eminem has not been able to do that, outside of some relatively weak support towards "River". If he dissed Trump AND made good music (like Kendrick Lamar), then he absolultely would have maintained that niche.


I think the publicity of Eminem attacking Trump made him flop less than he otherwise would have. I think if he didn't attack Trump, he would have flopped even harder. 

It would seem like a no-brainer that Eminem's base would be anti-Trump, but think about how much he appealed to angry young lower-middle class white dudes in the 2000s. That was a huge chunk of his base, and those angry white teens from 2004 are angry white 30 somethings now grumbling about immigrants and BLM and wearing MAGA hats. Eminem appealed to them then because he was an angry white guy they could identify with, and that's the same reason they like Trump now. If 1/10th of the ten million people who bought his classics CDs sat out this new album because they love Trump that would drastically affect his opening week and long term numbers now.

And yeah, it's been a long time since Eminem had a huge hit and he didn't come with a hot song this time, but by that logic Kanye hasn't had a huge hit in a long time either and we'll have to wait and see what his lead single is like. I'm not even trying to knock Kanye I'm just saying he's not an automatic given for big numbers in 2018.

[jebsib]

what acts have been adversely affected by politics?

There must be more than just the Dixie Chicks...

[Choco]

You could make the argument about Katy Perry but I think her material just didn't connect this time.

On TV and Movies there are a lot of Republicans who do complain about their politics affecting their job opportunities (i.e. Tim Allen sort of claims that his last show was canceled because he's a conservative).

[jenglisbe]

Apr 27, 2018 10:19:40 GMT -5 Choco said:

On TV and Movies there are a lot of Republicans who do complain about their politics affecting their job opportunities (i.e. Tim Allen sort of claims that his last show was canceled because he's a conservative).

I am sure it happens, but I find some of it to be people looking for an excuse. I mean, Tim Allen’s frankly had a bigger career (in both TV and film) than his limited talent deserves, and that piece of s**t show you referenced ran for 6 seasons.

It’s also ironic because those same MFers want to keep homosexuals, trans, etc out of their workplaces.

[tanooki]

Apr 27, 2018 10:19:40 GMT -5 Choco said:

You could make the argument about Katy Perry but I think her material just didn't connect this time.

On TV and Movies there are a lot of Republicans who do complain about their politics affecting their job opportunities (i.e. Tim Allen sort of claims that his last show was canceled because he's a conservative).

It wasn't the politics, the show just wasn't good...

I wonder how the week of May 19 (cool down week for both Cole and Post) is gonna look...

[Choco]

I agree, the show wasn't good and the ratings were marginal, especially on the 18-49 demo, which is the main thing advertisers look at when deciding where to promote their products and pay the network... But he still made that argument and a lot of people went with it.

I don't think 2018 Kanye West is capable of making an album full of hits. The Life of deleted had zero and he was probably in a much better place health wise back then. His last top 10 hit was "FourFiveSeconds" three years ago.

[lazer]

Which Post Malone song from B&B would be the next hit? Same Bitches, Stay, or Ball For Me?

[rfucom]

Better now and same bitches

[jenglisbe]

Camila coming for another Hot 100 top 10 with this remix. A week or two too late?

[thelegends]

Apr 27, 2018 11:06:02 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Camila coming for another Hot 100 top 10 with this remix. A week or two too late?

Needs a hip-hop artist to be featured on the remix not a country artist. Looks like she will be taking the "Meant To Be" and "The Middle" route.

[annoymous1]

Apr 27, 2018 11:06:02 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Camila coming for another Hot 100 top 10 with this remix. A week or two too late?

She should've put someone like Drake on it not Kane Brown but it'll hit the top 10 when everything cools down since radio eats up every song she has and she has good sales and decent streaming.

[areyoureadytojump]

www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/8395360/ariana-grande-j-cole-top-10-billboard-hot-100-debuts?utm_source=twitter

Ariana Grande & J. Cole Aiming for Top 10 Billboard Hot 100 Debuts Next Week
4/27/2018 by Gary Trust

Grande's "No Tears Left to Cry" could start in the top five & Cole's "ATM" could cash in with a top 10 deposit.
Ariana Grande and J. Cole each appear headed for debuts in the top 10 on next week's Billboard Hot 100 chart (dated May 5), while Drake's "Nice for What" should score a third week at No. 1.

Grande is aiming for a top five launch with new single "No Tears Left to Cry," while Cole looks likely to send multiple songs onto the chart, led by "ATM" possibly in the top 10, as his new album KOD is set to open at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 albums chart with 2018's biggest debut.

'No Tears Left to Cry': This Is the Part When Ariana Grande Is Broken, But Free
Let's look at the potential stats for both acts and how they might fare on next week's Hot 100; the chart blends weekly streaming, airplay and sales data, according to Nielsen Music.

Based on preliminary totals projecting the tracking period feeding next week's Hot 100, "Tears," released April 20 (the first day of the streaming and sales tracking week), should arrive with over 25 million U.S. streams and over 85,000 downloads sold in the week ending April 19 (easily making it the top-selling song of the week). The song should also draw over 30 million in all-format radio airplay audience in the week ending April 22 (the last day of the airplay tracking week).

When those figures are crunched, "Tears" appears in contention for a top five Hot 100 start.

Meanwhile, Drake looks likely to score a third week atop the Hot 100 with incumbent No. 1 "Nice for What," which should sport over 50 million U.S. streams, 25,000 sold and 45 million in airplay reach in the same measurement spans.

Also aiming for a top 10 Hot 100 start is Cole's "ATM," which should bow driven largely by over 30 million streams, while adding 8,000 sold and 2 million in airplay reach.

Cole could additionally earn top 40 Hot 100 debuts with KOD cuts "Kevin's Heart," "Photograph" and "Motiv8," each fueled by streaming sums of over 20 million (with "Heart" likely to eclipse 25 million).

Grande is seeking her ninth Hot 100 top 10, and sixth to debut in the region. She last hit the top 10 with "Side to Side" (featuring Nicki Minaj), which rose to No. 4 in December 2016.

Cole could collect his second top 10; his first, "Deja Vu," from his previous LP, 4 Your Eyez Only, debuted at No. 7, also in December 2016.

Highlights of next week's Hot 100 will post on Billboard.com Monday (April 30), with all charts posting the following day (May 1).

[rainie]

I don’t even like NBTS that much, but it would be one of the most unlucky songs in a while if it ends up missing the top 10. It’s #1 on CHR, with good sales and decent streaming — hell I would imagine a song like New Rules was probably weaker in the latter two components then NBTS is, and that was in the top 10 for multiple weeks and even peaked at 6. However, apperently every major hip hop artist wants to releas an album within the next month or two, which is going to end up blocking some songs from the top 10 (Mine will probably be another, sadly).

[fhas]

^Billboard is being conservative as always, but even by their standards the streaming numbers are way too low.

I'm predicting 45.4M streams for ATM, KOD with 42.7, Kevin's Heart 38.9M, and Ariana with 33M (the latter might be an opmistic guess, tho).

[Harx]

Weird how they don't even mention the title track from KOD in the article

[filthy]

Apr 27, 2018 12:30:59 GMT -5 Harx said:

Weird how they don't even mention the title track from KOD in the article

Yeah i thought the same thing

[fhas]

Apr 27, 2018 12:20:11 GMT -5 rainie said:

I don’t even like NBTS that much, but it would be one of the most unlucky songs in a while if it ends up missing the top 10. It’s #1 on CHR, with good sales and decent streaming — hell I would imagine a song like New Rules was probably weaker in the latter two components then NBTS is, and that was in the top 10 for multiple weeks and even peaked at 6. However, apperently every major hip hop artist wants to releas an album within the next month or two, which is going to end up blocking some songs from the top 10 (Mine will probably be another, sadly).

If you compare the peak in points with the peak in position, New Rules and Bad At Love were lucky as both are among the weakest #6 and #5 in recent years, respectively. I'm not tracking NBTS, but last week was the perfect week to have a remix because Chun-Li wasn't a big #10 and Camila could've reached the top 10 with ~21k points. This or next week? 25k points may not be sufficient.

[renfield75]

Apr 27, 2018 12:30:59 GMT -5 Harx said:

Weird how they don't even mention the title track from KOD in the article

I thought the same thing, especially since it has a more-than-solid chance of also debuting in the top ten.

[renaboss]

So Avicii killed himself, huh? Sad.

[renaboss]

In other, better news, ABBA are returning. Imagine ABBA getting a big hit in 2018, wouldn't that be something? Sigh, one can dream...

[thelegends]

Apr 27, 2018 13:38:01 GMT -5 renaboss said:

So Avicii killed himself, huh? Sad.

Nope, he died because of drug overdose.