Billboard Hot 100: 5/5/2018

[renaboss]

Apr 27, 2018 14:23:00 GMT -5 thelegends said:

Apr 27, 2018 13:38:01 GMT -5 renaboss said:

So Avicii killed himself, huh? Sad.

Nope, he died because of drug overdose.

Sadder.

[thelegends]

I wish KOD was released earlier so Avicii can listen to it to stop drug overdose. Then the sad news wouldn't exist.

[lazer]

Apr 27, 2018 13:38:01 GMT -5 renaboss said:

So Avicii killed himself, huh? Sad.

Well, the cause of death is not known. The family did say that he was struggling with stress and wants to find peace, but we don't know if it's a suicide.

[Harx]

This thread is getting more and more uncomfortably awkward with each new post

[Enigma.]

This is one of the mist bizarre Hot 100 threads I've ever seen and it's only 5 pages so far

[rainie]

Apr 27, 2018 14:29:22 GMT -5 thelegends said:

I wish KOD was released earlier so Avicii can listen to it to stop drug overdose. Then the sad news wouldn't exist.

Yes, because anti drug songs always cure addiction...

[mysterybolts]

Apr 27, 2018 12:28:19 GMT -5 fhas said:

^Billboard is being conservative as always, but even by their standards the streaming numbers are way too low.

I'm predicting 45.4M streams for ATM, KOD with 42.7, Kevin's Heart 38.9M, and Ariana with 33M (the latter might be an opmistic guess, tho).

Ariana Grande's streams are certainly nowhere near that high. 25,000,000 is still a bit high to me, but that is what Billboard is using. It is probably close to that number. 

[renaboss]

How is no one reacting to ABBA? You heathens!

[fhas]

Apr 27, 2018 15:23:59 GMT -5 mysterybolts said:

Apr 27, 2018 12:28:19 GMT -5 fhas said:

^Billboard is being conservative as always, but even by their standards the streaming numbers are way too low.

I'm predicting 45.4M streams for ATM, KOD with 42.7, Kevin's Heart 38.9M, and Ariana with 33M (the latter might be an opmistic guess, tho).

Ariana Grande's streams are certainly nowhere near that high. 25,000,000 is still a bit high to me, but that is what Billboard is using. It is probably close to that number. 

I think 33M is reachable and 25M is too low. 30M is a safe bet (19M on-demand + 11M YouTube).

11,650,452 Spotify streams + 7,349,548 Apple Music/Tidal/SoundCloud/etc.

[mysterybolts]

Apr 27, 2018 15:38:20 GMT -5 fhas said:

Apr 27, 2018 15:23:59 GMT -5 mysterybolts said:

Ariana Grande's streams are certainly nowhere near that high. 25,000,000 is still a bit high to me, but that is what Billboard is using. It is probably close to that number. 

I think 33M is reachable and 25M is too low. 30M is a safe bet (19M on-demand + 11M YouTube).

She is not going to have 11,000,000 Youtube streams. She already fell off of Wednesday's chart with less than 846,000,000 Streams. Her Youtube streams from Friday to Wednesday in the USA are only at 8,400,000 views. She will probably be at 9,000,000 with Thursday's inclusion. I am expecting her on-demand streams to be at 18,000,000, but that is still either only 27,000,000 or 28,000,000 using the Youtube streams with it. 30,000,000 is not a safe bet. 

[Au$tin]

Apr 27, 2018 15:32:27 GMT -5 renaboss said:

How is no one reacting to ABBA? You heathens!

Because all they did was announce a new song and given the current climate of the industry, it's highly unlikely a new song from them would be a blip on the radar of the Hot 100.

[fhas]

Apr 27, 2018 15:54:35 GMT -5 mysterybolts said:

Apr 27, 2018 15:38:20 GMT -5 fhas said:

I think 33M is reachable and 25M is too low. 30M is a safe bet (19M on-demand + 11M YouTube).

She is not going to have 11,000,000 Youtube streams. She already fell off of Wednesday's chart with less than 846,000,000 Streams. Her Youtube streams from Friday to Wednesday in the USA are only at 8,400,000 views. She will probably be at 9,000,000 with Thursday's inclusion. I am expecting her on-demand streams to be at 18,000,000, but that is still either only 27,000,000 or 28,000,000 using the Youtube streams with it. 30,000,000 is not a safe bet. 

NTLTC has two versions with a combined 10,135,571 views after Wednesday's update.


artists.youtube.com/insights/artist?entity_params_entity=ARTIST&date_params_start_time=2018-04-20T00%3A00%3A00Z&date_params_end_time=2018-04-25T00%3A00%3A00Z&date_params_interval=DAY&entity_params_id=%2Fm%2F09gkdy4&location_params_id=0x54eab584e432360b%3A0x1c3bb99243deb742&hl=pt

[House Lannister]

Apr 25, 2018 15:54:22 GMT -5 renaboss said:

variety.com/2018/music/news/zedd-the-middle-singers-maren-morris-camila-cabello-demi-lovato-carly-rae-jepsen-1202778917/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

“We never lost the feeling for that song,” adds Jordan Johnson. “Even a year later, I, as a creator hadn’t gotten tired of it. It was special.”

It sounds exactly like "Stay" but it was "special". Reminds me of when DJ Khaled said he'd been meaning to work with Rihanna for the longest time but they were waiting for the right idea to come along. The right idea was lifting the entire instrumental from "Maria Maria".

Man, that tea tastes amazing.  Even better in the shade.

[renaboss]

So the reviews for Post's album aren't all that, huh?

[Mayman]

Apr 27, 2018 17:03:40 GMT -5 renaboss said:

So the reviews for Post's album aren't all that, huh?

I think it's great.

[fridayteenage]

Never Be the Same remix outgained post feat nicki on the last iTunes update. Hopefully another Camila T10 next week.

[House Lannister]

I think whether Kanye's album or not succeeds is going to come down to that first single.

If it's fire, then people will tend to ignore his tweets and concentrate on the fact that he's back after the sad Life of deleted.

If it's weak, then I think you can place him with Katy Perry and Taylor Swift in the 2000-2010 artists who might have lost something.

[renaboss]

Apr 27, 2018 17:04:47 GMT -5 Mayman said:

Apr 27, 2018 17:03:40 GMT -5 renaboss said:

So the reviews for Post's album aren't all that, huh?

I think it's great.

Haven't heard it yet, I'll try to give it a try, especially the Nicki song. I wanna like it, I do - since, you know, it's gonna blow up the Hot 100 and probably the top 10. "Psycho" is predicted to go #1 and I already don't like that one, so...

[renaboss]

Apr 27, 2018 17:08:56 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

Never Be the Same remix outgained post feat nicki on the last iTunes update. Hopefully another Camila T10 next week.

What is this remix? Does it have a featured artist?

[House Lannister]

Apr 27, 2018 11:57:44 GMT -5 annoymous1 said:

Apr 27, 2018 11:06:02 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Camila coming for another Hot 100 top 10 with this remix. A week or two too late?

She should've put someone like Drake on it not Kane Brown but it'll hit the top 10 when everything cools down since radio eats up every song she has and she has good sales and decent streaming.

On the plus side, Kane Brown is on a bit of a roll lately.  So there could be some broad appeal.

I'll agree that this will eventually make the top 10.

[Au$tin]

Apr 27, 2018 17:10:44 GMT -5 renaboss said:

Apr 27, 2018 17:08:56 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

Never Be the Same remix outgained post feat nicki on the last iTunes update. Hopefully another Camila T10 next week.

What is this remix? Does it have a featured artist?

Kane Brown.

[jayhawk1117]

Apr 27, 2018 10:37:45 GMT -5 lazer said:

Which Post Malone song from B&B would be the next hit? Same Bitches, Stay, or Ball For Me?

Better Now has been getting the best reception from what I've seen

[mysterybolts]

Apr 27, 2018 17:09:00 GMT -5 House Lannister said:

I think whether Kanye's album or not succeeds is going to come down to that first single.

If it's fire, then people will tend to ignore his tweets and concentrate on the fact that he's back after the sad Life of deleted.

If it's weak, then I think you can place him with Katy Perry and Taylor Swift in the 2000-2010 artists who might have lost something.

No, he is screwed either way. People are outright not going to even attempt to listen to it. There was quite the controversy with Yeezus, and that album was his lowest selling up to that point without any of the singles seeing chart success. The Life of deleted fell off almost in an instant. His super supporters are going to support him, but casual supporters and general audiences have already been weary of his recent musical output. They are simply not even going to give not listening to it another thought now. The best case is that the Kanye West super fans support it when it first releases and give it a decent debut, but the fall off is going to be huge outside of that first week granted that the first week even has nice enough numbers. 

[mysterybolts]

Apr 27, 2018 17:09:50 GMT -5 renaboss said:

Apr 27, 2018 17:04:47 GMT -5 Mayman said:

I think it's great.

Haven't heard it yet, I'll try to give it a try, especially the Nicki song. I wanna like it, I do - since, you know, it's gonna blow up the Hot 100 and probably the top 10. "Psycho" is predicted to go #1 and I already don't like that one, so...

Some posters probably prematurely speculated that it will go number one, the same thing that they did with Ariana Grande for whatever reason, but that is not some hard and fast prediction that is waiting to be proven wrong. 

[mysterybolts]

Post Malone is performing well on streaming, but he is not at Drake or J. Cole level just as I thought. J. Cole had the entire top eight on Apple Music, twelve of the top thirteen and the entire clean version in the top fifty at the same point in time. Scorpion is going to be the one to break J. Cole's record.  

[hot100predictions]

Apr 27, 2018 18:18:24 GMT -5 mysterybolts said:

Post Malone is performing well on streaming, but he is not at Drake or J. Cole level just as I thought. J. Cole had the entire top eight on Apple Music, twelve of the top thirteen and the entire clean version in the top fifty at the same point in time. Scorpion is going to be the one break J. Cole's record.

Did you forget Kanye?

[rainie]

Apr 27, 2018 19:15:38 GMT -5 hot100predictions said:

Apr 27, 2018 18:18:24 GMT -5 mysterybolts said:

Post Malone is performing well on streaming, but he is not at Drake or J. Cole level just as I thought. J. Cole had the entire top eight on Apple Music, twelve of the top thirteen and the entire clean version in the top fifty at the same point in time. Scorpion is going to be the one break J. Cole's record.

Did you forget Kanye?

I think Kanye will have a big first week but it’s not too likely that he will have a big enough week to break the record.

[hot100predictions]

Apr 27, 2018 19:23:22 GMT -5 rainie said:

Apr 27, 2018 19:15:38 GMT -5 hot100predictions said:

Did you forget Kanye?

I think Kanye will have a big first week but it’s not too likely that he will have a big enough week to break the record.

I think number ones will start to be changing more frequently on the Hot 100 until Drake releases Scorpion and takes off with a particular song on the album.

[mysterybolts]

Apr 27, 2018 19:15:38 GMT -5 hot100predictions said:

Apr 27, 2018 18:18:24 GMT -5 mysterybolts said:

Post Malone is performing well on streaming, but he is not at Drake or J. Cole level just as I thought. J. Cole had the entire top eight on Apple Music, twelve of the top thirteen and the entire clean version in the top fifty at the same point in time. Scorpion is going to be the one break J. Cole's record.

Did you forget Kanye?

Kanye has ensured that his album is not going to perform well with his stunts. 

[Sherane Lamar]

Apr 27, 2018 17:58:29 GMT -5 mysterybolts said:

Apr 27, 2018 17:09:00 GMT -5 House Lannister said:

I think whether Kanye's album or not succeeds is going to come down to that first single.

If it's fire, then people will tend to ignore his tweets and concentrate on the fact that he's back after the sad Life of deleted.

If it's weak, then I think you can place him with Katy Perry and Taylor Swift in the 2000-2010 artists who might have lost something.

No, he is screwed either way. People are outright not going to even attempt to listen to it. There was quite the controversy with Yeezus, and that album was his lowest selling up to that point without any of the singles seeing chart success. The Life of deleted fell off almost in an instant. His super supporters are going to support him, but casual supporters and general audiences have already been weary of his recent musical output. They are simply not even going to give not listening to it another thought now. The best case is that the Kanye West super fans support it when it first releases and give it a decent debut, but the fall off is going to be huge outside of that first week granted that the first week even has nice enough numbers. 

TLOP's fall off wasn't that dramatic. Not as dramatic as Jay-Z's "4:44" or Beyonce's "Lemonade" or J. Cole's "4 Your Eyez Only" or even Drake's "More Life". Kanye West got only 17.4% of his Hot 100 points from TLOP's first week. 

Father Stretch My Hands Pt. 1 spent a whole 23 weeks on the chart. 

Famous did 14. 

Fade did 13. 

That's not superstar numbers, but it's not immediate fall-off numbers either. It indicates that a general following for him still exists. Not just "superfans". And it's not like these songs are exactly pop-friendly or super accessible either. 




Remember that Kanye is one of the most respected living people in Hip-Hop. And his artistic acclaim expands beyond just Hip-Hop fans and into the artsy and hipstery white college crowd. 

With the industry the way it is today, and assuming that he isn't burdening himself with an exclusive TIDAL release, I think that Kanye out-debuting "The Life Of deleted" is pretty much a sure thing. And as long as he doesn't pull another Yeezus where the music he makes is so bizarre that everybody immediately rejects it, I think getting past the relatively low bar set by TLOP could be a real possibility. 



As for the politics, Kanye's listeners have been dismissing his ridiculous real life antics for almost 9 years now. I don't think it will have a significant negative effect.