ddlz
2x Platinum Member
Joined: June 2011
Posts: 2,166
|
Post by ddlz on Nov 5, 2018 11:47:47 GMT -5
|
|
tanooki
Diamond Member
2019 Breakthrough
lucia gta 6
Joined: August 2017
Posts: 10,117
Pronouns: they/she/fae
|
Post by tanooki on Nov 5, 2018 11:54:26 GMT -5
Top 10 debut should be on lock unless the song fully crashes, we'll see about #1 tho
|
|
|
|
Post by hot100predictions on Nov 5, 2018 11:59:24 GMT -5
I still think 30 million in streams first week, 45-55k sales first week and obivously no radio push should seal top 10, but might be pushing that #1 debut to hard, but let’s see how today’s number go.
|
|
Zach
7x Platinum Member
And at once I knew I was not magnificent...
Joined: September 2015
Posts: 7,544 
|
Post by Zach on Nov 5, 2018 12:08:03 GMT -5
I still think 30 million in streams first week, 45-55k sales first week and obivously no radio push should seal top 10, but might be pushing that #1 debut to hard, but let’s see how today’s number go. Things would have to REALLY collapse (like completely implode) through the rest of the week for it to miss top 10. |
|
|
|
Post by KeepDeanWeird on Nov 5, 2018 12:22:29 GMT -5
I'm just curious, why did Kris Wu just get another iTunes spike just now - TU,N is down to #7 suddenly. And who are these fans that are buying so many individual tracks, but not the album? That's a bit illogical. I'd suggest that KW's daily surges are suspicious, but I figure iTunes has that covered.
|
|
rimetm
2x Platinum Member
Just a Good Ol' Chart Shmuck
|
Post by rimetm on Nov 5, 2018 12:39:27 GMT -5
I'm just curious, why did Kris Wu just get another iTunes spike just now - TU,N is down to #7 suddenly. And who are these fans that are buying so many individual tracks, but not the album? That's a bit illogical. I'd suggest that KW's daily surges are suspicious, but I figure iTunes has that covered. They don’t, this has happened in the past with Kris Wu, where Like That was projected for 60k based on its iTunes ratios but was actually at ~21k due to the rest being detected as VPNed sales by SoundScan. |
|
amore
Platinum Member
Banned
Joined: June 2018
Posts: 1,205
|
Post by amore on Nov 5, 2018 13:31:09 GMT -5
If Ariana gets her 1st #1, 2018 will go down as one of the craziest years in billboard history.
|
|
tanooki
Diamond Member
2019 Breakthrough
lucia gta 6
Joined: August 2017
Posts: 10,117
Pronouns: they/she/fae
|
Post by tanooki on Nov 5, 2018 13:34:56 GMT -5
If Ariana gets her 1st #1, 2018 will go down as one of the craziest years in billboard history. More than it already has? |
|
amore
Platinum Member
Banned
Joined: June 2018
Posts: 1,205
|
Post by amore on Nov 5, 2018 13:36:26 GMT -5
If Ariana gets her 1st #1, 2018 will go down as one of the craziest years in billboard history. More than it already has? Yes. Ariana has everything except a #1 :(. It makes me upset because she gets so close, but huge hits block it off. |
|
wavey.
Moderator
Look...
Positive Vibes🙏🏾❤
Joined: August 2006
Posts: 43,657
Pronouns: He/Him
Staff
|
Post by wavey. on Nov 5, 2018 13:38:06 GMT -5
Her consistentcy is so much better than a #1. Yes, it would be nice, but it's not the end all.
|
|
|
|
Post by hot100predictions on Nov 5, 2018 13:44:06 GMT -5
She will definitely hit #1 just when? Next week, we will see!
|
|
amore
Platinum Member
Banned
Joined: June 2018
Posts: 1,205
|
Post by amore on Nov 5, 2018 13:51:10 GMT -5
She will definitely hit #1 just when? Next week, we will see! She will definitely go #1. Her relevancy is at its peak rn. Ariana is becoming a legend tbh. The numbers she has are amazing. |
|
Au$tin
Diamond Member
Pop Culture Guru
Grrrrrrrrrr. Fuckity fuck why don't you watch my film before you judge it? FURY.
Joined: August 2008
Posts: 54,623
My Charts
Pronouns: He/his/him
|
Post by Au$tin on Nov 5, 2018 13:53:00 GMT -5
I think it's just as ridiculous to claim there's no chance of "thank u, next" of hitting number one as it is to claim she's a lock for it. It actually has a strong chance (3 million streams on Spotify for Sunday, plus probably another low-end 6-digit figure from Saturday night), but of course it's not a lock because we have no idea of knowing how well it's going to hold over the rest of the week and whether or not it's going to get much airplay.
Let's save our passionate claims about what it's going to do when we have more than a few hours of data.
|
|
tanooki
Diamond Member
2019 Breakthrough
lucia gta 6
Joined: August 2017
Posts: 10,117
Pronouns: they/she/fae
|
Post by tanooki on Nov 5, 2018 15:08:18 GMT -5
At least High Hopes will likely be top 10 next week
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 5, 2018 16:03:31 GMT -5
I'll be content with a top 10 debut for 'Thank U, Next', that's the streak I want to see kept alive (top 10 debuts for lead singles, since this will be her 6th* in that streak) * 'Focus' of course is the reason for the big ole' asterisk, given at the time of its release it was the lead single from her 3rd album, but then it wasn't after the album became 'Dangerous Woman' and 'Focus' was left off. A #1 debut would be fantastic, don't get me wrong, but I think given the streak she has going, maintaining the streak is more important - aside from it being a record she herself has set, she was the first to do it and that can never be taken away from her; but the longer she maintains it the more impressive the feat becomes. If we're talking #1 chances, 'Breathin' has some decent airplay numbers and if the video does major enough damage, there's no reason to believe 'Breathin' doesn't have a shot at it especially with the chart so weak at the top. But a top 10/maybe top 5 showing is also good enough 'cause it's still three solo top 10's in a row (and hopefully three solo #1's on pop radio as well) from the one project. I really can't see Breathin making top ten, Giaw struggled to make it with a vma performance, discount, and album release, and breathin lacks promo and only has radio |
|
Az Paynter
Diamond Member
On Dsico's Block List™
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 114,474
|
Post by Az Paynter on Nov 5, 2018 16:14:45 GMT -5
2 consecutive weeks in the top 10 is 'struggling'? Lol please. :sip2:
|
|
|
|
Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Nov 5, 2018 16:21:34 GMT -5
I think it's just as ridiculous to claim there's no chance of "thank u, next" of hitting number one as it is to claim she's a lock for it. It actually has a strong chance (3 million streams on Spotify for Sunday, plus probably another low-end 6-digit figure from Saturday night), but of course it's not a lock because we have no idea of knowing how well it's going to hold over the rest of the week and whether or not it's going to get much airplay. Let's save our passionate claims about what it's going to do when we have more than a few hours of data. How dare you sir! How very dare you! |
|
marc980
Platinum Member
Joined: April 2018
Posts: 1,111
|
Post by marc980 on Nov 5, 2018 16:31:19 GMT -5
I don't think "thank u, next" will debut at #1, but if it does... I would be very happy with it. It has a chance of it, though.
|
|
jeiboy
Gold Member
Joined: April 2016
Posts: 828
|
Post by jeiboy on Nov 5, 2018 16:45:33 GMT -5
Watch Girls Like You pull an 8th week at #1  |
|
tanooki
Diamond Member
2019 Breakthrough
lucia gta 6
Joined: August 2017
Posts: 10,117
Pronouns: they/she/fae
|
Post by tanooki on Nov 5, 2018 17:03:34 GMT -5
Watch Girls Like You pull an 8th week at #1 Happier will probably overtake it and the holiday season will demolish it. I don't expect stuff like Delicate and The Middle to last much longer either |
|
sam8432
Charting
Joined: August 2017
Posts: 250
|
Post by sam8432 on Nov 5, 2018 17:08:13 GMT -5
In its 22nd week in the Top 5, Girls Like You is #1. The record for top 5 weeks is currently 27. Does Girls Like You have a serious chance of breaking the record?
The Christmas freeze will hurt its airplay which is really all it has going on it, and it's vulnerable as a #1, with Happier and Thank u, Next likely to pass it soon and possibly Without Me, Mo Bamba, High Hopes, Taki Taki, SICKO MODE, and ZeZe as well depending on their traction and/or longevity compared to GLY. I guess it'll become more evident in the coming weeks.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 5, 2018 17:21:40 GMT -5
In its 22nd week in the Top 5, Girls Like You is #1. The record for top 5 weeks is currently 27. Does Girls Like You have a serious chance of breaking the record? The Christmas freeze will hurt its airplay which is really all it has going on it, and it's vulnerable as a #1, with Happier and Thank u, Next likely to pass it soon and possibly Without Me, Mo Bamba, High Hopes, Taki Taki, SICKO MODE, and ZeZe as well depending on their traction and/or longevity compared to GLY. I guess it'll become more evident in the coming weeks. I have my doubts. The whole top 10 is so close together in terms of points that it could tumble out of the top 5 at any moment. I'm amazed that it held #1 for so long. |
|
tanooki
Diamond Member
2019 Breakthrough
lucia gta 6
Joined: August 2017
Posts: 10,117
Pronouns: they/she/fae
|
Post by tanooki on Nov 5, 2018 17:24:49 GMT -5
In its 22nd week in the Top 5, Girls Like You is #1. The record for top 5 weeks is currently 27. Does Girls Like You have a serious chance of breaking the record? The Christmas freeze will hurt its airplay which is really all it has going on it, and it's vulnerable as a #1, with Happier and Thank u, Next likely to pass it soon and possibly Without Me, Mo Bamba, High Hopes, Taki Taki, SICKO MODE, and ZeZe as well depending on their traction and/or longevity compared to GLY. I guess it'll become more evident in the coming weeks. Possibly, but unlikely thanks to Christmas |
|
Gary
Diamond Member
Joined: January 2014
Posts: 45,889
|
Post by Gary on Nov 5, 2018 17:25:12 GMT -5
This thread wrote off this song weeks ago but yet, it is still here.
Wait and see
|
|
jeiboy
Gold Member
Joined: April 2016
Posts: 828
|
Post by jeiboy on Nov 5, 2018 17:39:52 GMT -5
Ariana performing on Ellen on Wednesday
#1 on Today's Top Hits as well!
|
|
|
|
Post by kcdawg13 on Nov 5, 2018 17:59:26 GMT -5
I have a feeling that Girls Like You is gonna break Shape Of You's record for most weeks in the Top 10, it only needs 12 more weeks, and with radio seemingly never dying, it will likely happen. Plus it'll get a decent boost from christmas sales and year-end airplay.
12 weeks from November 10th is February 2nd, I think it can pull through.
|
|
jenglisbe
Diamond Member
Joined: January 2005
Posts: 35,611
|
Post by jenglisbe on Nov 5, 2018 18:10:08 GMT -5
More than it already has? Yes. Ariana has everything except a #1 :(. It makes me upset because she gets so close, but huge hits block it off. She gets so close? Doesn't she only have one #2 to this point? She hasn't been super close too much. |
|
Au$tin
Diamond Member
Pop Culture Guru
Grrrrrrrrrr. Fuckity fuck why don't you watch my film before you judge it? FURY.
Joined: August 2008
Posts: 54,623
My Charts
Pronouns: He/his/him
|
Post by Au$tin on Nov 5, 2018 18:31:00 GMT -5
In its 22nd week in the Top 5, Girls Like You is #1. The record for top 5 weeks is currently 27. Does Girls Like You have a serious chance of breaking the record? The Christmas freeze will hurt its airplay which is really all it has going on it, and it's vulnerable as a #1, with Happier and Thank u, Next likely to pass it soon and possibly Without Me, Mo Bamba, High Hopes, Taki Taki, SICKO MODE, and ZeZe as well depending on their traction and/or longevity compared to GLY. I guess it'll become more evident in the coming weeks. On the contrary, it would help it. It's called a freeze for a reason: playlists are frozen and don't change much through the holidays. But of course, it would need to survive to that point, and that's still ~6 weeks away before it begins to take an effect on Hot AC and Pop. Its AC airplay is what could hurt it as AC stations begin to flip to 24/7 Christmas music, which slowly starts happening right now and comes into full swing just after Thanksgiving. So AC will decline quickly, Hot AC and Pop will decline at a normal pace until about a month and half from now when they'll freeze their playlists. Then once Christmas passes, Hot AC and Pop will remain frozen through the New Year's holiday and begin their returns to normal in early January, when "Girls Like You" will tumble off their playlists to be replaced by newer upcoming hits. Meanwhile, "Girls Like You" will see a massive resurgence from AC starting December 26 when those stations flip back to normal rotation. But of course this will be affecting every song, not just GLY. And it's a total crapshoot as to which songs they'll choose to hold onto over the holidays and which songs they'll let drop a bit throughout the season. So, basically, it's a tad too early to really tell what's going to happen airplay wise with any song for the December 21-January 2 time frame on Hot AC and Pop. All we really know is the big AC hits right now (since AC is slow as molasses) are about to lose a lot of airplay in 2-4 weeks time, only to see a massive gain again in 7 weeks time. |
|
sam8432
Charting
Joined: August 2017
Posts: 250
|
Post by sam8432 on Nov 5, 2018 18:56:41 GMT -5
Huh, interesting, our friend the QueenofCopyPaste on ATRL was wondering about GLY breaking the top 5 record as well! What a coincidence!!
|
|
Az Paynter
Diamond Member
On Dsico's Block List™
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 114,474
|
Post by Az Paynter on Nov 5, 2018 19:02:29 GMT -5
In its 22nd week in the Top 5, Girls Like You is #1. The record for top 5 weeks is currently 27. Does Girls Like You have a serious chance of breaking the record? The Christmas freeze will hurt its airplay which is really all it has going on it, and it's vulnerable as a #1, with Happier and Thank u, Next likely to pass it soon and possibly Without Me, Mo Bamba, High Hopes, Taki Taki, SICKO MODE, and ZeZe as well depending on their traction and/or longevity compared to GLY. I guess it'll become more evident in the coming weeks. On the contrary, it would help it. It's called a freeze for a reason: playlists are frozen and don't change much through the holidays. But of course, it would need to survive to that point, and that's still ~6 weeks away before it begins to take an effect on Hot AC and Pop. Its AC airplay is what could hurt it as AC stations begin to flip to 24/7 Christmas music, which slowly starts happening right now and comes into full swing just after Thanksgiving. So AC will decline quickly, Hot AC and Pop will decline at a normal pace until about a month and half from now when they'll freeze their playlists. Then once Christmas passes, Hot AC and Pop will remain frozen through the New Year's holiday and begin their returns to normal in early January, when "Girls Like You" will tumble off their playlists to be replaced by newer upcoming hits. Meanwhile, "Girls Like You" will see a massive resurgence from AC starting December 26 when those stations flip back to normal rotation. But of course this will be affecting every song, not just GLY. And it's a total crapshoot as to which songs they'll choose to hold onto over the holidays and which songs they'll let drop a bit throughout the season. So, basically, it's a tad too early to really tell what's going to happen airplay wise with any song for the December 21-January 2 time frame on Hot AC and Pop. All we really know is the big AC hits right now (since AC is slow as molasses) are about to lose a lot of airplay in 2-4 weeks time, only to see a massive gain again in 7 weeks time. Actually for at least a week after the chart unfreezes even Pop and Hot AC bounce back pretty hard; so even if GLY is recurrent on either of those formats at the time, when it bounces back on AC it will still be bouncing back super-hard on overall airplay. It all comes down to how well it holds up before Christmas; but if it survives that long, then #LetTheFlamesBegin |
|
