Billboard Hot 100: 01/05/2019

[velaxti]

I wouldn't expect Rihanna to debut at #1. I don't think she's ever done that before. In fact, it's extremely rare for any of her songs to debut at their peak.

[jtd Thee Stallion]

Dec 25, 2018 19:05:40 GMT -5 velaxti said:

I wouldn't expect Rihanna to debut at #1. I don't think she's ever done that before. In fact, it's extremely rare for any of her songs to debut at their peak.

She’s as popular as she’s ever been right now, and people are clamoring for new music from her, streaming makes high debuts much more possible, and the chart likely will be weaker that it already is currently.

[jenglisbe]

Dec 25, 2018 15:47:37 GMT -5 85la said:

^ It's #2 with over 2 million streams in the U.S. too, along with other Christmas songs dominating the top. Sales on iTunes for most Christmas songs have already plummeted though, sort of against my predictions. I haven't been able to find the figures for how the top Christmas songs are doing on airplay these last couple days, does anybody have them?

Holiday songs actually held up better on iTunes than normal this year. Usually sales peak at least a few days ahead of Christmas, if not more, which makes sense as why download a song you’re only going to listen to for 1-2 more days?

And I know “AIWFCIY” and others are high on Spotify now, but they will plummet tomorrow. Think of it like Grande’s “Imagine” which was really high on Spotify for a day or two and was top 10 for most of its week and sold well on iTunes but still wasn’t top 20 on the Hot 100 because nothing was sustained.

[velaxti]

Dec 25, 2018 19:08:01 GMT -5 jtd Thee Stallion said:

Dec 25, 2018 19:05:40 GMT -5 velaxti said:

I wouldn't expect Rihanna to debut at #1. I don't think she's ever done that before. In fact, it's extremely rare for any of her songs to debut at their peak.

She’s as popular as she’s ever been right now, and people are clamoring for new music from her, streaming makes high debuts much more possible, and the chart likely will be weaker that it already is currently.

But songs like Wild Thoughts and Work were only released a couple of years ago and didn't debut at #1. I don't see why this song would? If it goes to #1, it would more likely get there in February or March. And, I also remember what happened with Russian Roulette. And I know it's a different artist, but people were like this with Bruno Mars as well and 24k Magic didn't get to #1, I think there's very few artists out there who we can just assume will get to #1 (let alone debut there) with a lead single especially when we haven't even heard the song yet. I don't think it's guaranteed for people like Drake, Justin Bieber or Taylor Swift either.

I hope she does though, Rihanna is my favorite pop star.

[jenglisbe]

Dec 25, 2018 19:53:14 GMT -5 velaxti said:

Dec 25, 2018 19:08:01 GMT -5 jtd Thee Stallion said:

She’s as popular as she’s ever been right now, and people are clamoring for new music from her, streaming makes high debuts much more possible, and the chart likely will be weaker that it already is currently.

But songs like Wild Thoughts and Work were only released a couple of years ago and didn't debut at #1. I don't see why this song would? If it goes to #1, it would more likely get there in February or March. And, I also remember what happened with Russian Roulette. And I know it's a different artist, but people were like this with Bruno Mars as well and 24k Magic didn't get to #1, I think there's very few artists out there who we can just assume will get to #1 (let alone debut there) with a lead single especially when we haven't even heard the song yet. I don't think it's guaranteed for people like Drake, Justin Bieber or Taylor Swift either.

I hope she does though, Rihanna is my favorite pop star.

Rihanna has more momentum behind her this time than when “Work” dropped since it was coming off relatively disappointments. It was also released in the middle of the week, no? So it didn’t have a full week of sales and streams for its debut week.

[elementd5]

Dec 25, 2018 20:01:04 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Dec 25, 2018 19:53:14 GMT -5 velaxti said:

But songs like Wild Thoughts and Work were only released a couple of years ago and didn't debut at #1. I don't see why this song would? If it goes to #1, it would more likely get there in February or March. And, I also remember what happened with Russian Roulette. And I know it's a different artist, but people were like this with Bruno Mars as well and 24k Magic didn't get to #1, I think there's very few artists out there who we can just assume will get to #1 (let alone debut there) with a lead single especially when we haven't even heard the song yet. I don't think it's guaranteed for people like Drake, Justin Bieber or Taylor Swift either.

I hope she does though, Rihanna is my favorite pop star.

Rihanna has more momentum behind her this time than when “Work” dropped since it was coming off relatively disappointments. It was also released in the middle of the week, no? So it didn’t have a full week of sales and streams for its debut week.

Plus, both With Thoughts and Work debuted Top 10. With a stronger release strategy / promo, it’s definitely possible. Should be fun to watch.

[Deleted]

Dec 25, 2018 19:05:40 GMT -5 velaxti said:

I wouldn't expect Rihanna to debut at #1. I don't think she's ever done that before. In fact, it's extremely rare for any of her songs to debut at their peak.

She doesn't need to debut at one to break ari's streaming record 

[korbel16]

Dec 25, 2018 14:56:16 GMT -5 hot100predictions said:

New Rihanna rumored for a 1/4 release, we'll see.

girl u stay making shit up 💀

[aussie1]

Dec 25, 2018 20:01:04 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Dec 25, 2018 19:53:14 GMT -5 velaxti said:

But songs like Wild Thoughts and Work were only released a couple of years ago and didn't debut at #1. I don't see why this song would? If it goes to #1, it would more likely get there in February or March. And, I also remember what happened with Russian Roulette. And I know it's a different artist, but people were like this with Bruno Mars as well and 24k Magic didn't get to #1, I think there's very few artists out there who we can just assume will get to #1 (let alone debut there) with a lead single especially when we haven't even heard the song yet. I don't think it's guaranteed for people like Drake, Justin Bieber or Taylor Swift either.

I hope she does though, Rihanna is my favorite pop star.

Rihanna has more momentum behind her this time than when “Work” dropped since it was coming off relatively disappointments. It was also released in the middle of the week, no? So it didn’t have a full week of sales and streams for its debut week.

If I'm not mistaken "Work" was released in the last day or two of the tracking week and debuted at #9? It probably could have debuted at #1 if released at the start of the tracking week. Zayn managed it a week later with Pillowtalk.

[chartslovergermany]

^yeah

[velaxti]

I think with Work it wasn't allowed on Youtube at first either? All the videos kept getting deleted so it missed out on those streams first week. But also, I think it only climbed to #6 or something in its 2nd week, so even if it was released on the right day I don't know if its points would have been enough to debut at #1.

I still don't think Rihanna will debut at #1 though. I give it about a 10% chance of it happening if the song is good and it has a normal release. Also she hasn't released much music in the past couple of years, and part of the reason she has been so popular and successful is because she almost constantly released singles for about 10 years. I'm worried that her taking a low profile in the past couple of years might hurt her. The strategy of people like Drake and Post Malone of constantly having songs out (to the point that they even have album campaigns overlap) is what you should do nowadays if you want to be at the top. Ariana seems to have started doing this as well actually.

Also, I mentioned Russian Roulette earlier, and that song was similar in that it was her comeback single after a break + Run This Town (only a year break, but that's long by Rihanna's standards of course), and that also under-performed, and I had to put up with people saying she was "flopping" and that her career is in decline until Rude Boy happened. If we go around saying she will debut at #1 and she debuts at #5, the exact same thing is going to happen, and then I'm going to have to say "It might climb when the airplay increases" about a thousand times haha.

I would keep your expectations low, she does not have the chart history of people like Taylor Swift with getting massive debut weeks (and even for Taylor I would never be confident enough to say a new single will DEFINITELY debut at #1). If I had to bet on two things: 1) Rihanna will debut at #1 or 2) Rihanna will be at #1 in March, I would bet on the latter tbh.

[kierz7]

Dec 26, 2018 9:34:48 GMT -5 velaxti said:

I think with Work it wasn't allowed on Youtube at first either? All the videos kept getting deleted so it missed out on those streams first week. But also, I think it only climbed to #6 or something in its 2nd week, so even if it was released on the right day I don't know if its points would have been enough to debut at #1.

I still don't think Rihanna will debut at #1 though. I give it about a 10% chance of it happening if the song is good and it has a normal release. Also she hasn't released much music in the past couple of years, and part of the reason she has been so popular and successful is because she almost constantly released singles for about 10 years. I'm worried that her taking a low profile in the past couple of years might hurt her. The strategy of people like Drake and Post Malone of constantly having songs out (to the point that they even have album campaigns overlap) is what you should do nowadays if you want to be at the top. Ariana seems to have started doing this as well actually.

Also, I mentioned Russian Roulette earlier, and that song was similar in that it was her comeback single after a break + Run This Town (only a year break, but that's long by Rihanna's standards of course), and that also under-performed, and I had to put up with people saying she was "flopping" and that her career is in decline until Rude Boy happened. If we go around saying she will debut at #1 and she debuts at #5, the exact same thing is going to happen, and then I'm going to have to say "It might climb when the airplay increases" about a thousand times haha.

I would keep your expectations low, she does not have the chart history of people like Taylor Swift with getting massive debut weeks (and even for Taylor I would never be confident enough to say a new single will DEFINITELY debut at #1). If I had to bet on two things: 1) Rihanna will debut at #1 or 2) Rihanna will be at #1 in March, I would bet on the latter tbh.

Rihanna's celebrity is larger than ever at the moment - 14 years into her career; the anticipation for her music is at an all time high so even if she doesn't debut at #1 it'll be okay.

Her commercial/Hot 100 legacy is collosal, and technically she did what Drake and Post Malone are doing now between 2008-2013.

I think people are just excited about her releasing and, anyhow, all stans are like this when their favourite act is on the verge of releasing. Haha.

[Golden Bluebird]

kworb.net/airadio/

*** = Dropped or added a format

Overall AI (Top 20) - 2018/12/26
1. (=) PANIC! AT THE DISCO - High Hopes (155.325) (-2.427)
2. (=) MARSHMELLO - Happier f/Bastille (131.599) (-1.944)
3. (=) ARIANA GRANDE - Breathin (118.029) (-1.119)
4. (=) HALSEY - Without Me (115.125) (-0.274)
5. (=) ARIANA GRANDE - thank u, next (110.949) (-0.409)
6. (+1) BENNY BLANCO, HALSEY & KHALID - Eastside (87.069) (-0.232)
7. (-1) MAROON 5 - Girls Like You (86.913) (-1.273)
8. (+1) TRAVIS SCOTT - Sicko Mode (86.586) (+0.781)
9. (-1) 5 SECONDS OF SUMMER - Youngblood (85.323) (-1.138)
10. (=) KHALID X NORMANI - Love Lies (75.607) (-0.140)
11. (=) POST MALONE - Better Now (74.403) (-0.610)
12. (=) ELLA MAI - Trip (65.665) (-1.181)
13. (=) BAD BUNNY - MIA f/Drake (65.043) (+0.834)
14. (=) POST MALONE & SWAE LEE - Sunflower (59.786) (+0.035)
15. (=) LOVELYTHEBAND - Broken (57.797) (-1.033)
16. (=) DJ SNAKE/SELENA/OZUNA/CARDI B - Taki Taki (56.599) (+0.625)
17. (=) GUCCI MANE/BRUNO/KODAK - Wake Up In The Sky (55.097) (-0.543)
18. (+1) KODAK BLACK - Zeze f/Travis Scott & Offset (52.170) (-0.015)
19. (+1) BAZZI - Beautiful (51.128) (-0.232)
20. (-2) DAN + SHAY - Speechless (50.294) (-5.208)

Others:
23. (+5) ELLIE GOULDING X DIPLO - Close To Me f/Swae Lee (45.175) (+0.900)
24. (+2) DAN + SHAY - Tequila (44.503) (-2.101)
28. (+4) JUICE WRLD - Lucid Dreams (42.455) (+0.555)
30. (-3) THOMAS RHETT - Sixteen (41.433) (-3.665)
33. (-4) DUSTIN LYNCH - Good Girl (40.500) (-3.750)
34. (-4) DIERKS BENTLEY - Burning Man f/Brothers Osborne (40.255) (-3.854)
39. (-4) JASON ALDEAN - Girl Like You (37.458) (-3.248)
40. (-6) KIP MOORE - Last Shot (37.269) (-3.467)
41. (=) LADY GAGA & BRADLEY COOPER - Shallow (37.113) (-0.637)
44. (-2) SCOTTY MCCREERY - This Is It (34.588) (-2.987)
54. (-4) LUKE BRYAN - What Makes You Country (27.974) (-2.420)
55. (-4) CHRIS STAPLETON - Millionaire (27.798) (-2.496)
57. (-4) JORDAN DAVIS - Take It From Me (27.470) (-2.447)
60. (-3) MIDLAND - Burn Out (26.207) (-2.385)
65. (=) LAUREN DAIGLE - You Say (25.028) (-0.663)
72. (+3) DRAKE - Nice For What (22.888) (+0.542)
75. (-1) JAKE OWEN - Down To The Honkytonk (20.998) (-1.731)

[areyoureadytojump]

Of course it all depends on the quality of the material.

It'll be a hit for sure.

But, will it be a "golden turkey" like Taylor Swift's "LAWYMMD" or an actual hit like Rhianna's own "Diamonds."

[divasummer]

I normally would think Rihanna would automatically hit num.1 with any new music.
I never really hear people say they don't like her and she has the "cool" factor but she has had a decent amount of misshaps chart wise.
"Russian Rulette", Four,Five,Seconds, and American Oxygen were all supposed to do well...… Neither reached or ended up reaching num.1 in the US.
Right now she's hot and I'm not saying it will happen now but she's been out for awhile now and no one stays on top forever.
I didn't think there would be a day when Madonna wouldn't be an automatic Top 3 but it happened.

[Golden Bluebird]

[cassiuscasanova]

I don’t think Rihanna will debut at number one but could possibly reach it

[renaboss]

Look at those gains for "Money". And people were saying it was done for.

[kimberly]

Dec 26, 2018 11:45:32 GMT -5 renaboss said:

Look at those gains for "Money". And people were saying it was done for.

It is not going any higher, and could gain even less since the views for the mv seem to have gone down to around 1,000,000 per day globally. Though without seasonal music it could've easily gone top ten, like without a doubt.

[chartslovergermany]

Dec 26, 2018 11:57:48 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Dec 26, 2018 11:45:32 GMT -5 renaboss said:

Look at those gains for "Money". And people were saying it was done for.

It is not going any higher, and could gain even less since the views for the mv seem to have gone down to around 1,000,000 per day globally. Though without seasonal music it could've easily gone top ten, like without a doubt.

the audio is racking up more views than the video, probably because of the age restriction

[Deleted]

Assuming Without Me gets blocked by Thank U, Next, what other song do you think will beat TUN? My best guess is Sunflower but too early to call.

[ddlz]

Post could've had like 5 #1's if not for poor strategic planning.

Now Sunyawner and Wow are gonna kill each other in January.

[Enigma.]

Dec 26, 2018 14:32:27 GMT -5 ddlz said:

Post could've had like 5 #1's if not for poor strategic planning.

Now Sunyawner and Wow are gonna kill each other in January.

How Sunflower would've been #1 yet, it hasn't been even close top three until last week.

[ddlz]

Dec 26, 2018 15:05:41 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Dec 26, 2018 14:32:27 GMT -5 ddlz said:

Post could've had like 5 #1's if not for poor strategic planning.

Now Sunyawner and Wow are gonna kill each other in January.

How Sunflower would've been #1 yet, it hasn't been even close top three until last week.

Poor wording. I was thinking ahead with January in mind. 

[Choco]

A top 10 peak is more than enough for "Money" to be considered a solid win IMO. It's done well overall but it's not approaching her biggest hits and that's fine (it's not one of her best songs... the video is dope though).

I'd put money on the next #1 being either "Sunflower" (like a 30% chance IMO), or more likely, something we haven't heard yet (Nü Drake? Rih always takes a few weeks to go #1 too, but if her team gets their sh** together it could happen).

[lazer]

Imo, Money sounds weak compared to other Cardi B songs.

[Choco]

There were better choices left on Invasion of Privacy... ("I Do" would have been a great way to keep her relevant on Pop radio after "I Like It"... "Ring" too if they bothered promoting that for that format, and "Bickenhead" is still a fan favorite).

The video really took "Money" to another level though.

[renfield75]

I could see "Without Me" sneaking a week or two on top just because of the pattern of the last few years: "Sorry", "Starboy", and "Havana" all made it to the top in January after being stuck at number two for awhile behind massive number ones. "Thinking Out Loud" almost did it but "Uptown Funk" was just too big. So maybe Halsey will get this year's delayed number one?

[lazer]

Right now, the top 30 Spotify charts have no Christmas songs.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Dec 26, 2018 23:22:52 GMT -5 renfield75 said:

I could see "Without Me" sneaking a week or two on top just because of the pattern of the last few years: "Sorry", "Starboy", and "Havana" all made it to the top in January after being stuck at number two for awhile behind massive number ones. "Thinking Out Loud" almost did it but "Uptown Funk" was just too big. So maybe Halsey will get this year's delayed number one?

I could see it happen too, but date-wise, it's not possibly happening until the 01-19 or 01-26 chart, looking at the chart weeks the three songs got their respective weeks at #1.