Billboard Hot 100: 02/23/2019

[rimetm]

Initial Forecast

Seeing how the 2/16/19 thread has just completely derailed into talk about today's releases, let's funnel them to the right thread, shall we?

thank u, next batch of hits
Ariana Grande's new album is out, and it's guaranteed to lead to a bomb on the Hot 100. The question that remains is roughly how big it'll be. iTunes numbers on day 1 are solid but not very strong, Apple Music numbers are gaining but still moderate, Spotify's a mystery, and there's talk that every song on the album will be entering radio rotation this week, which could make up for all the rest. Frontrunners for a big debut of the album cuts include Ghostin', Needy, NASA, and Bloodline. Of course, this all pales compared to...

Break Up With Your 7 Rings, I'm Bored
The big thing to keep an eye on is the race for number one, because Break Up With Your Girlfriend, I'm Bored may or may not be posing a threat. The radio rotation could help it out in addition to it being a single sent already to non-deal stations. Sales are high to start, but 7 Rings is beating it across all versions. Streams are moderate on audio sites, but the YouTube numbers are incredible so far, owing to a music video on day 1. I'd say in order for it to continue being in the conversation, though, we're talking at least a 30m start globally on YouTube, then it'll be on track for a 25-35m US week.

5 Metaphorical Seconds of Stardom: The Other Stuff This Week
Other big news this tracking week includes The Chainsmokers' new single with 5SOS, "Who Do You Love", which leads the pack to start on sales, "Talk", a new Khalid single with strong sales and decent streams to start, and "Handmade Heaven", a Marina single that might actually have legs to debut on the Hot 100.

For existing charting songs, it's worth noting that "You Say" has received a discount and "Going Bad" has received a music video. "A Lot" should continue to post gains as the controversy around 21 Savage continues to boil.

Chart Release
www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/8498841/ariana-grande-top-3-spots-hot-100
www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/8498842/ariana-grande-most-simultaneous-top-40-hot-100-hits

01 01 7 Rings
02 NE Break Up With Your Girlfriend, I'm Bored
03 07 Thank U, Next
04 03 Without Me
05 04 Sunflower
06 02 Happier
07 05 Sicko Mode
08 06 High Hopes
09 09 Wow.
10 11 Eastside
11 08 Middle Child
12 10 Girls Like You
13 15 Going Bad
14 NE Needy

17 NE NASA
18 24 Shallow

21 RE Imagine
22 NE Bloodline

25 NE Ghostin'
26 NE Fake Smile
27 NE Bad Idea

38 NE In My Head

44 NE Talk

48 NE Make Up

56 NE Who Do You Love?

59 73 Murder on My Mind

68 99 Close Friends

80 RE Secreto

95 RE Con Calma

98 NE Rainbow

Almost All Billboard Singles Charts Transcribed Courtesy of Gary

[spicymapping]

After like 2 months of the charts being a snore, I think this week is trying to over compensate.

[Enigma.]

Funny to watch Ariana vs Ariana at the top of chart.

[owenlovesmusic]

I wish A Lot could make it to the top 10

[Enigma.]

Feb 8, 2019 13:14:18 GMT -5 owenlovesmusic said:

I wish A Lot could return to the top 10

Return? It hasn't reached top 20 yet.

[renaboss]

What is "A Lot"?

[owenlovesmusic]

Feb 8, 2019 13:17:15 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Feb 8, 2019 13:14:18 GMT -5 owenlovesmusic said:

I wish A Lot could return to the top 10

Return? It hasn't reached top 20 yet.

Ya i meant to make it. It has had a pretty disappointing chart run so far so I hope that 21’s arrest will be able to give it the boost it needs to hit the top 10.

[Enigma.]

The arrest boost, a boost everyone needs

[Choco]

The Youtube streams for the "break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored" video are pretty healthy. The song is also #1 on iTunes.

Other tracks on the iTunes top 10: "needy" (second track on the album, after the already released "imagine"), "bloodline" and of course "7 rings".

Ariana is her biggest enemy in terms of achieving a third #1 debut. It's probably between "...i'm bored" and "7 rings".

[kimberly]

Apple Music US

thank u, next currently occupies #1 and #3 on the albums chart.

Here's how the songs are doing:

#2 "needy"
#3 "NASA"
#4 "bloodline"
#5 "break up with your boyfriend, I'm bored"
#6 "ghostin"
#7 "fake smile"
#9 "bad idea"
#11 "7 rings"
#12 "imagine"
#13 "in my head"
#15 "make up"
#21 "7 rings"
#28 "thank u, next"
#33 "thank u, next"
#67 "7 rings" [CLEAN]
#134 "needy" [CLEAN]
#163 "break up with your boyfriend, I'm bored" [CLEAN]
#177 "NASA" [CLEAN]

[owenlovesmusic]

The new Wiz Khalifa x Curren$y album >>>>>> TUN

TRUTH

[Mauricio]

Feb 8, 2019 15:30:57 GMT -5 owenlovesmusic said:

The new Wiz Khalifa x Curren$y album >> TUN

TRUTH

Jaja, eres tierno. 

[korbel16]

7 rings will probably stay at 1 while break up... will be 2? Idk top 3 seems likely tho

[marc980]

This week will be INSANE.

[kimberly]

Apple Music Update

thank u, next currently occupies #1 and #2 (+1) on the albums chart.

Here's how the songs are doing:

#1 "needy" (+1)
#2 "NASA" (+1)
#4 "break up with your boyfriend, I'm bored" (+1)
#5 "bloodline" (-1)
#6 "ghostin"
#7 "fake smile"
#8 "bad idea" (+1)
#9 "imagine" (+3)
#10 "in my head" (+3)
#12 "make up" (+3)
#13 "7 rings" (-2)
#16 "7 rings" (+5)
#22 "thank u, next" (+6)
#34 "thank u, next" (-1)
#70 "7 rings" [CLEAN] (-3)
#119 "needy" [CLEAN] (+15)
#133 "break up with your boyfriend, I'm bored" [CLEAN] (+30)
#153 "NASA" [CLEAN] (+24)
#175 "bloodline" [CLEAN] (new)
#182 "fake smile" [CLEAN] (new)
#184 "imagine" [CLEAN] (new)
#191 "ghostin" [CLEAN] (new)

[owenlovesmusic]

Feb 8, 2019 18:14:35 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Apple Music Update

thank u, next currently occupies #1 and #2 (+1) on the albums chart.

Here's how the songs are doing:

#1 "needy" (+1)
#2 "NASA" (+1)
#4 "break up with your boyfriend, I'm bored" (+1)
#5 "bloodline" (-1)
#6 "ghostin"
#7 "fake smile"
#8 "bad idea" (+1)
#9 "imagine" (+3)
#10 "in my head" (+3)
#12 "make up" (+3)
#13 "7 rings" (-2)
#16 "7 rings" (+5)
#22 "thank u, next" (+6)
#34 "thank u, next" (-1)
#70 "7 rings" [CLEAN] (-3)
#119 "needy" [CLEAN] (+15)
#133 "break up with your boyfriend, I'm bored" [CLEAN] (+30)
#153 "NASA" [CLEAN] (+24)
#175 "bloodline" [CLEAN] (new)
#182 "fake smile" [CLEAN] (new)
#184 "imagine" [CLEAN] (new)
#191 "ghostin" [CLEAN] (new)

Theres a thread dedicated to Apple Music charts too

[Mauricio]

Feb 8, 2019 18:14:35 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Apple Music Update

thank u, next currently occupies #1 and #2 (+1) on the albums chart.

Here's how the songs are doing:

#1 "needy" (+1)
#2 "NASA" (+1)
#4 "break up with your boyfriend, I'm bored" (+1)
#5 "bloodline" (-1)
#6 "ghostin"
#7 "fake smile"
#8 "bad idea" (+1)
#9 "imagine" (+3)
#10 "in my head" (+3)
#12 "make up" (+3)
#13 "7 rings" (-2)
#16 "7 rings" (+5)
#22 "thank u, next" (+6)
#34 "thank u, next" (-1)
#70 "7 rings" [CLEAN] (-3)
#119 "needy" [CLEAN] (+15)
#133 "break up with your boyfriend, I'm bored" [CLEAN] (+30)
#153 "NASA" [CLEAN] (+24)
#175 "bloodline" [CLEAN] (new)
#182 "fake smile" [CLEAN] (new)
#184 "imagine" [CLEAN] (new)
#191 "ghostin" [CLEAN] (new)

My girl with 9 songs on the top 10. I-

[brady47]

The "thank u, next" era definitely feels like Bieber's "Purpose" era.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Feb 8, 2019 16:22:22 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

7 rings will probably stay at 1 while break up... will be 2? Idk top 3 seems likely tho

Say it's the Scorpion week all over again. 7 rings as "Nice For What" while break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored as "Nonstop".

[thelegends]

Feb 8, 2019 15:30:57 GMT -5 owenlovesmusic said:

The new Wiz Khalifa x Curren$y album >> TUN

TRUTH

FACTSSSSSSSSS

[kimberly]

Almost 24 hours in (well, AM released the album like 90 minutes late... but anyways)

Apple Music Update

thank u, next still occupies #1 and #2 on the albums chart.

Here's how the songs are doing:

#1 "needy" (=)
#2 "break up with your boyfriend, I'm bored" (+2)
#3 "NASA" (-1)
#4 "bloodline" (+1)
#6 "ghostin" (=)
#7 "fake smile" (=)
#8 "bad idea" (=)
#9 "imagine" (=)
#10 "in my head" (=)
#11 "make up" (+1)
#13 "7 rings" (=)
#18 "7 rings" (-2)
#22 "thank u, next" (=)
#35 "thank u, next" (-1)
#69 "7 rings" [CLEAN/Single] (+1)
#88 "needy" [CLEAN] (+31)
#89 "break up with your boyfriend, I'm bored" [CLEAN] (+44)
#117 "NASA" [CLEAN] (+36)
#137 "bloodline" [CLEAN] (+38)
#141 "imagine" [CLEAN] (+43)
#143 "fake smile" [CLEAN] (+39)
#146 "ghostin" [CLEAN] (+45)
#165 "bad idea" [CLEAN] (new)
#198 "in my head" [CLEAN] (new)
#200 "7 rings" [CLEAN] (new)

Notable Feats
- Except for the title track and "make up", the entire Clean Version is charting in the Top 200.
- "7 rings" repeats 4 times in the Top 200 after the clean album version enters at #200.

Commentary
- While "needy" has been holding up well thanks to front loaded fan streams and being the #2 track on the album, I am positive "break up" will take over sooner than later.
- "7 rings" looks like it could block "break up" the chart crown this week. We shall see how the caption-worthy title and low-budget yet creative music video for "break up" will help it.

[Deleted]

If I had to compare to the Scorpion album bomb, I feel like "Break Up With Your Girlfriend" will either end up like "Nonstop" and debut high, but below the existing single (Nice For What/7 Rings), and then drop fast and hover below the Top 10 for a while while building radio, or like "In My Feelings'" first couple weeks, where it debuts Top 10, and then rises to #1 after everything else clears up.

I think 7 Rings is going to stay at #1 for the 2/23 week, though.

[forg]

Remember when Ariana is so unlucky on getting that elusive #1 and now she's dominating hard and maybe even get a 3rd #1 as soon as possible.

[chartslovergermany]

Feb 9, 2019 0:28:03 GMT -5 @geomachu said:

If I had to compare to the Scorpion album bomb, I feel like "Break Up With Your Girlfriend" will either end up like "Nonstop" and debut high, but below the existing single (Nice For What/7 Rings), and then drop fast and hover below the Top 10 for a while while building radio, or like "In My Feelings'" first couple weeks, where it debuts Top 10, and then rises to #1 after everything else clears up.

I think 7 Rings is going to stay at #1 for the 2/23 week, though.

i thought literally the same.
But the only difference was that needy or another song performs like IMF,but let’s see

[moonlite]

Ariana's US Spotify numbers are great but a little underwhelming. She did a little worse than J. Cole's album last year. (comparing them cuz their the only 10-13 track album bombs). Probably won't be as hard of a bomb on the top 10 as we thought. 

[kanfad]

Feb 9, 2019 9:23:47 GMT -5 moonlite said:

Ariana's US Spotify numbers are great but a little underwhelming. She did a little worse than J. Cole's album last year. (comparing them cuz their the only 10-13 track album bombs). Probably won't be as hard of a bomb on the top 10 as we thought. 

yeah but she's probably not going to be as frontloaded as Cole was, so maybe 4-6 songs in the top ten?

[mackattack]

Feb 9, 2019 9:23:47 GMT -5 moonlite said:

Ariana's US Spotify numbers are great but a little underwhelming. She did a little worse than J. Cole's album last year. (comparing them cuz their the only 10-13 track album bombs). Probably won't be as hard of a bomb on the top 10 as we thought. 

I mean for a pop artist, this is unheard of. What were Cole’s first day numbers?

[owenlovesmusic]

Feb 9, 2019 9:45:07 GMT -5 mackattack said:

Feb 9, 2019 9:23:47 GMT -5 moonlite said:

Ariana's US Spotify numbers are great but a little underwhelming. She did a little worse than J. Cole's album last year. (comparing them cuz their the only 10-13 track album bombs). Probably won't be as hard of a bomb on the top 10 as we thought. 

I mean for a pop artist, this is unheard of. What were Cole’s first day numbers?

filled top 13 spots with #13 having a 400,000 stream lead over #14. The top song with 4.2M streams (debuted at #10) and the second highest song debuted with 3.6M streams (debuted at #14).

[kimberly]

Saturday Morning - Apple Music Update

thank u, next still occupies #1 and #2 on the albums chart.

Here's how the songs are doing:

#1 "needy" (=)
#2 "break up with your boyfriend, I'm bored" (=)
#3 "NASA" (=)
#4 "bloodline" (=)
#5 "ghostin" (+1)
#6 "fake smile" (+1)
#7 "bad idea" (+1)
#9 "in my head" (+1)
#10 "imagine" (-1)
#11 "7 rings" (+2)
#12 "make up" (-1)
#14 "thank u, next" (+8)
#22 "7 rings" (-4)
#41 "thank u, next" (-6)
#69 "break up with your boyfriend, I'm bored" [CLEAN] (+20)
#78 "7 rings" [CLEAN/Single] (-9)
#81 "needy" [CLEAN] (+7)
#104 "NASA" [CLEAN] (+13)
#120 "ghostin" [CLEAN] (+26)
#122 "bloodline" [CLEAN] (+15)
#123 "fake smile" [CLEAN] (+20)
#126 "imagine" [CLEAN] (+15)
#151 "bad idea" [CLEAN] (+14)
#181 "7 rings" [CLEAN] (+19)
#182 "in my head" [CLEAN] (+16)
#194 "make up" [CLEAN] (new)

[dynamac]

Are any Wiz/Curren$y songs doing well?