Billboard Hot 100: 03/02/2019

[rimetm]

Now that Ariana's bomb will have impacted the charts, it's looking like we're about to see some deja vu this upcoming week...

Spring-Loaded
We may not be quite out of snow season yet, but the charts are warming up with full impacts for singles including Bruno teaming up with Cardi once more and Zedd bringing along Katy Perry for a ride. Now why does this sound so familiar? Oh right, this is basically what was going on last year with Finesse and The Middle impacting around this point with a dash of 2017 as Katy Perry tries once more for a comeback. The Bruno/Cardi single, Please Me, is gearing up for a strong debut, with an ample lead on iTunes currently with over 2:1 margins and top 5 placement on Apple Music. 365, the Zedd/Katy collab, looks to have a modest sales start and a more healthy YouTube presence thanks to the simultaneous debut of a music video, unlike Please Me.

So Long Gone
A possible wild-card this week was thrown in thanks to the rerelease of the popular So Far Gone mixtape by Drake on streaming services. Housing such influential tracks as Best I Ever Had, could this mixtape end up sparking a debut/re-entry on the Hot 100? Songs will be under the recurrent rules due to their age, so they'll need to break the top 50, but it's worth noting that several tracks are getting healthy starts on Apple Music.

Shooting for the Stars When I Couldn't Make a Killing
Because no weeks can get by nowadays without some left-field boost for an existant track, it looks like we could be seeing a hit incoming for YNW Melly with his arrest in the news, as his long-floundering single (and unfortunately/coincidentally named) "Murder on My Mind" might finally get the windfall it's needed to go top 40. The song currently occupies the #2 slot on Apple Music and looks to be on track for getting at least 10k sales over the week, up from basically nothing.

(As of writing, the first Spotify daily charts for the tracking week are not ready)

EDIT: Most singles charts this week supplied by Gary.

[owenlovesmusic]

Please Me debuts at #10 on US Spotify.
Juice WRLD’s Robbery rises to #9.

[fhas]

Please Me:
iTunes: 3:1 lead over Shallow
Radio: biggest debut since LWYMMD.

Spotify: debuts only at #10 with 1.3M... that's surprisingly low.

[owenlovesmusic]

Apple Music
1. Murder on My Mind
3. Please Me

[renaboss]

Never even heard of that YNW Nelly person. Is getting arrested the new trend to get a hit?

[sam8432]

Thotiana ft. Cardi B is now out. This could give the song a pretty big boost.

[ddlz]

Feb 16, 2019 12:28:39 GMT -5 fhas said:

Please Me:
iTunes: 3:1 lead over Shallow
Radio: biggest debut since LWYMMD.

Spotify: debuts only at #10 with 1.3M... that's surprisingly low.

Don't expect big things from Spotify. Finesse did similar numbers. And Please Me is slower and even less Spotify friendly. 

[kimberly]

"break up with your girlfriend, I'm bored" is holding up at #1 on AM, "Please Me" is #3. We don't have day 2 figures for Spotify just yet but Please me will do top 5 at best is my guess, unless a sensational music video drops or something. My super early predictions for the top is as follows:

1. 7 rings
2. Break Up (could drop but so far I see it staying at #2)
3. Without Me
4. Happier
5. Sunflower
6. Please Me

[hunterquigley]

Feb 16, 2019 18:18:26 GMT -5 sam8432 said:

Thotiana ft. Cardi B is now out. This could give the song a pretty big boost.

Also discounted on ITunes, and a remix with YG was dropped this week as well

[mako]

Don't really like Please Me. Next.

[Deleted]

Feb 17, 2019 3:29:38 GMT -5 mako said:

Don't really like Please Me. Next.

This isn't an opinions thread

[renaboss]

Feb 17, 2019 5:58:45 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

Feb 17, 2019 3:29:38 GMT -5 mako said:

Don't really like Please Me. Next.

This isn't an opinions thread

Well this is uncalled for. I said I liked "Please Me" on the other thread and no one called me out on it. 

That being said, anyone who doesn't like "Please Me" will forever be a virgin.

[owenlovesmusic]

Please Me moves DOWN to #11 on Spotify

[annoymous1]

Please me is also 19 on Spotify Global. I really didn't expect her to do numbers on Spotify since Apple Music is where she gets most of her streams from anyways.

[owenlovesmusic]

Thotiana also rises from 14 to 7

[gabe]

Feb 17, 2019 5:58:45 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

Feb 17, 2019 3:29:38 GMT -5 mako said:

Don't really like Please Me. Next.

This isn't an opinions thread

You still seem to shove your opinions on Drake down our throats though

[Deleted]

Feb 17, 2019 10:52:09 GMT -5 gabe said:

Feb 17, 2019 5:58:45 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

This isn't an opinions thread

You still seem to shove your opinions on Drake down our throats though

Huh I don't bring up drake in these threads when he isn't relevant 

[Deleted]

Feb 17, 2019 6:25:18 GMT -5 renaboss said:

Feb 17, 2019 5:58:45 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

This isn't an opinions thread

Well this is uncalled for. I said I liked "Please Me" on the other thread and no one called me out on it. 

That being said, anyone who doesn't like "Please Me" will forever be a virgin.

O it wasn't an attack on him but like this is to talk about the chart for this week and songs have there own threads normally in the pop section for you to share your opinions 

[Choco]

Feb 17, 2019 6:25:18 GMT -5 renaboss said:

That being said, anyone who doesn't like "Please Me" will forever be a virgin.

Thank God I enjoy then!!!

[Naos]

Feb 17, 2019 10:52:09 GMT -5 gabe said:

Feb 17, 2019 5:58:45 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

This isn't an opinions thread

You still seem to shove your opinions on Drake down our throats though

Well, I mean... when you want someone shoved down your throat, you'd want to share with others, no?

[nickd]

Just ran some numbers and it's not entirely clear that 365 will debut on the Hot 100 this week?

[kingvavis]

What are the odds Thotiana goes number one in the next few weeks?

[Deleted]

Feb 17, 2019 23:25:03 GMT -5 nickd said:

Just ran some numbers and it's not entirely clear that 365 will debut on the Hot 100 this week?

I hope it does.
I remember seeing someone somewhere on here say that "365" could be like "Delicate", where it debuts low and gradually makes it up to a decent enough peak, which I agree with as a possibility and would like to see happen since this doesn't look like it'll debut high (or at all this week).

[Deleted]

Feb 17, 2019 23:31:50 GMT -5 kingvavis said:

What are the odds Thotiana goes number one in the next few weeks?

It wouldn't surprise me if it did tbh.

[nickd]

Feb 17, 2019 23:36:24 GMT -5 @geomachu said:

Feb 17, 2019 23:25:03 GMT -5 nickd said:

Just ran some numbers and it's not entirely clear that 365 will debut on the Hot 100 this week?

I hope it does.
I remember seeing someone somewhere on here say that "365" could be like "Delicate", where it debuts low and gradually makes it up to a decent enough peak, which I agree with as a possibility and would like to see happen since this doesn't look like it'll debut high (or at all this week).

I think Delicate was responding a better to Spotify playlisting though. 365 debuted at 1835k WW streams, then dropped to 1350k streams as it got added to a bunch of playlists. It's now at 77m playlist reach.

Delicate peaked at 2012k streams in April with the strongest week having a weekly average of 1827k streams which it achieved with around 70m playlist reach, which lead to Spotify playlisting it around 70-90m reach for the 4 following weeks.

Delicate's radio driven sales peak was around 14k with a first week of 7k
Ready For It's first week sales was 153k, radio driven re-peak was around 25-35k
End Game's first week sales was 23k with a radio driven re-peak at 12k and a further increase to 19k with the MV

365 has the advantage of being in its first week of availability with no competition from other Katy Perry songs and looks like it'll start with 12-13k sales so the initial interest seems quite a bit lower than for Taylor's songs based on the sales.

Anyways, it's best chance is to get radio to latch on to it like they did with Delicate, otherwise this week will probably be it's only chance to chart.

[Enigma.]

I'm surprised that 365 didn't start better... I thought Zedd and Katy would've killed it on iTunes at least (as they have that kind of profile as artists) but no.

[Deleted]

I don't think 365 will chart at all

[nickd]

Feb 18, 2019 3:16:48 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

I don't think 365 will chart at all

I'd give it about 70% odds of charting, with a max position of #70, and then drop out the week after and come back when (if?) radio picks it up.

[pcg4]

Feb 18, 2019 3:40:25 GMT -5 nickd said:

Feb 18, 2019 3:16:48 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

I don't think 365 will chart at all

I'd give it about 70% odds of charting, with a max position of #70, and then drop out the week after and come back when (if?) radio picks it up.

I could see it too. I really hope radio picks it up because if not it's over for the song.
Could it have a similar run than Feels (at least in the US?). I don't know how were its streaming numbers but feels didn't start very strong in Youtube, like 365. Also in Itunes US Feels peaked lower than 365, but I don't know about the rest of its metrics. 
Without promotion the song will be overshadwed by other new releases, so I think she and Zedd should perform it somewhere. If she wears a black wig it would be even better.

[mako]

Feb 17, 2019 23:31:50 GMT -5 kingvavis said:

What are the odds Thotiana goes number one in the next few weeks?

I'm giving it a 1 out of a 1