Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Apr 3, 2019 16:52:17 GMT -5
Let's leave the poor guy alone and let him have his predictions. Whether they are accurate or not doesn't really matter I mean, they do need to be based on something, though, because people are going to discuss the predictions. That's how a forum works. If people don't agree with the predictions and have the statistics to back up their reasoning, they should absolutely be able to do so and the person making the predictions can't be mad about that because this is a discussion board, not a cork board. Anytime you post something on the internet, you should be able to back up your claims if they're questioned. Questioning is part of a discussion. Otherwise, what's the point of even posting anything if you don't want people discussing with you? |
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rimetm
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Post by rimetm on Apr 3, 2019 17:02:34 GMT -5
The way I've always seen it, the Predictions thread is basically the hunches thread where you basically gamble rep on blind faith, while the main thread is the one where data-based predictions should be located as they interact with the information that comes out. Speaking of, I took a stab at it once more and...hoo boy, this is gonna be a close 5-way race. I thought I could axe off two candidates (Bad Guy and Sunflower), but it turns out they have some unexpected strengths that keep them in the game. The fact that my findings favor 7 Rings has me a bit worried though, because that's the worst scenario for me: no new #1 because a boring #1 won't go away.  |
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wjr15
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Post by wjr15 on Apr 3, 2019 17:04:26 GMT -5
I don't feel safe because of Au$tin and Gabe. Don't make me regret defending you... |
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Apr 3, 2019 17:05:06 GMT -5
What is your reasoning behind thinking this? What is it about the current stats that make you think 7 rings will absolutely not be #1 this week? Not doing well in streams and sales, are behind Wow., Bad Guy and (lol) even Old Town Road. She has radio and a ton of it, so it won't dip too many spots, but it may not even be #2 this week. 1. bad guy, Wow., Old Town Road, 7 rings 2. bad guy, Wow., Old Town Road, 7 rings bad guy is the strong candidate this week as well as Wow. and even Old Town Road. All have higher sales and streams than 7 rings. 7 rings has a 60 million AI advantage on radio. (Well, a little less on Billboard's chart.) 7 rings looks to also have YouTube advantage with about a 1.1 million lead for the week. On iTunes, 7 rings is selling 71% of Wow. So that's like, what, a 4k difference in weekly sales nowadays? On Spotify Wow. should be about 2.5 million ahead of 7 rings for the week. Apple Music is a little harder to gauge since we don't get actual numbers from them, just positions. Wow. is at #29 and #148 on AM and 7 rings is at #73, #114, #389, and #1420. I just don't think that's going to be enough to overtake the airplay and YouTube advantage. It could be, though, especially if Billboard has a much lower airplay gap than Mediabase. |
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Apr 3, 2019 17:06:33 GMT -5
I mean, they do need to be based on something, though, because people are going to discuss the predictions. That's how a forum works. If people don't agree with the predictions and have the statistics to back up their reasoning, they should absolutely be able to do so and the person making the predictions can't be mad about that because this is a discussion board, not a cork board. Anytime you post something on the internet, you should be able to back up your claims if they're questioned. Questioning is part of a discussion. Otherwise, what's the point of even posting anything if you don't want people discussing with you? Did I do something to you? I feel attacked. You shouldn't because I wasn't doing anything except explaining how online conversations work to Gary. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2019 17:10:46 GMT -5
Are you guys sure the video of bad guy will count towards the Hot 100? It technically has 2 songs on it.
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Au$tin
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Grrrrrrrrrr. Fuckity fuck why don't you watch my film before you judge it? FURY.
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Post by Au$tin on Apr 3, 2019 17:11:22 GMT -5
The way I've always seen it, the Predictions thread is basically the hunches thread where you basically gamble rep on blind faith, while the main thread is the one where data-based predictions should be located as they interact with the information that comes out. Speaking of, I took a stab at it once more and...hoo boy, this is gonna be a close 5-way race. I thought I could axe off two candidates (Bad Guy and Sunflower), but it turns out they have some unexpected strengths that keep them in the game. The fact that my findings favor 7 Rings has me a bit worried though, because that's the worst scenario for me: no new #1 because a boring #1 won't go away. I think you might have airplay for bad guy too high. It's not charting in any format nor has it been sent anywhere and Billie isn't enough of a force on radio to warrant a large amount of curiosity spins from an album release (unfortunately). I'm sure it's got some airplay, but I can't see it being much over 1 million AI. Otherwise the rest of the numbers look good to me. (Well, I have zero clue on programmed streams.) |
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rimetm
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Post by rimetm on Apr 3, 2019 17:17:16 GMT -5
For programmed streams, I based it off the movement from 2 weeks ago on fhas' lists and extrapolated that to now. I believe he said album drops (Bad Guy) tend to get somewhere in the realm of 2-3m, while a viral hit (Old Town Road) wouldn't get as many as its regular brethren, so that's how I came up with the two newcomers.
Incidentally, you mentioned uncertainty about 7R v.s. Wow. on Apple Music. Well, the good news is that Apple does a daily chart that combines versions. On it, 7 Rings has been holding a modest positional lead throughout the week (and Sunflower has also been leading Wow.), so it looks to me like we're looking a 700k-800k gap with the weekly total.
Good point on Bad Guy's airplay, I assumed it might be getting curiosity spins on both Pop and Alt that could be aiding it, but even then 2 million only really makes sense on the kworb scale, not the Nielsen scale like I was going for here.
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Apr 3, 2019 17:19:12 GMT -5
Are you guys sure the video of bad guy will count towards the Hot 100? It technically has 2 songs on it. It should as !!!!!!! is just 14 seconds long and wouldn't technically get counted as a stream for that reason by YouTube. The only forseeable issue is that YouTube's algorithm is recognizing !!!!!!! since it plays first and since the video is well over the 30 second threshold, it's confusing the streams for bad guy as !!!!!!! on the daily chart. I would think YouTube would have that fixed come time to present the weekly chart/numbers published to Billboard, but YT has been a pain in the ass before with things similar to this, so... So technically, yes, by the rules and tabulations YouTube has, bad guy should receive all those views. However, because of how dumb their algorithm is and how poor they are about fixing it sometimes, all of those streams could accidentally get reported for !!!!!!!, which honestly would be the saddest yet most hilarious mishap on the chart in a long while. Imagine bad guy missing the top 5 and !!!!!!! making the top 40 or 30 because of that. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2019 17:20:26 GMT -5
Don't forget that the remix of Wow. is also charting inside top 200 on Apple Music. They don't include its total with the original since a week ago the remix was #99 on that "combined" chart.
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kindofbiased
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Post by kindofbiased on Apr 3, 2019 17:20:35 GMT -5
Are you guys sure the video of bad guy will count towards the Hot 100? It technically has 2 songs on it. If it doesn't count towards it I'll be shocked especially considering the other song is 13 seconds long Has Billboard done that before? If a music video mainly consists of one song but has another, shorter song in it, have they not counted that? |
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Apr 3, 2019 17:23:41 GMT -5
Incidentally, you mentioned uncertainty about 7R v.s. Wow. on Apple Music. Well, the good news is that Apple does a daily chart that combines versions. On it, 7 Rings has been holding a modest positional lead throughout the week (and Sunflower has also been leading Wow.), so it looks to me like we're looking a 700k-800k gap with the weekly total. Is the combined chart available anywhere outside the app? (Spotify user here!) Because whenever I try to search for it, all I get is the uncombined version. I did know they had a combined version, I've just never been able to get ahold of it myself. Also, my uncertainty for AM was more about its actual numbers rather than position. To my knowledge, AM's numbers aren't public like Spotify's. I wish they were, though. I'd love to compare AM totals to Spotify's. |
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Apr 3, 2019 17:25:15 GMT -5
Are you guys sure the video of bad guy will count towards the Hot 100? It technically has 2 songs on it. If it doesn't count towards it I'll be shocked especially considering the other song is 13 seconds long Has Billboard done that before? If a music video mainly consists of one song but has another, shorter song in it, have they not counted that? I'm pretty sure it's less how Billboard counts it and more how YouTube counts it. That's the concerning part as YouTube is showing the views for bad guy as !!!!!!! only on their daily charts. |
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fhas
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Post by fhas on Apr 3, 2019 17:34:27 GMT -5
I'm waiting for HDD's revenue chart to update tonight so I can have last week's numbers almost finished and then I'll adjust this week's numbers based on that. Something that is important to note is that during the first 2-4 weeks the paid-to-free streams ratio is higher so I'd assume that ~10M Spotify streams for Billie counts as 11-12M for a song that has been on the charts for months. Also, Pandora is slow AF (it's almost like radio) so most songs don't debut in the top 100 chart until the second week. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2019 17:40:14 GMT -5
"Baby Shark" Baby shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Baby shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Baby shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Baby shark! Mommy shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Mommy shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Mommy shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Mommy shark! Daddy shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Daddy shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Daddy shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Daddy shark! Grandma shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Grandma shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Grandma shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Grandma shark! Grandpa shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Grandpa shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Grandpa shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Grandpa shark! Let's go hunt, doo doo doo doo doo doo Let's go hunt, doo doo doo doo doo doo Let's go hunt, doo doo doo doo doo doo Let's go hunt! Run away, doo doo doo doo doo doo Run away, doo doo doo doo doo doo Run away, doo doo doo doo doo doo Run away! Safe at last, doo doo doo doo doo doo Safe at last, doo doo doo doo doo doo Safe at last, doo doo doo doo doo doo Safe at last! It's the end, doo doo doo doo doo doo It's the end, doo doo doo doo doo doo It's the end, doo doo doo doo doo doo It's the end! An iconic already classic. Needs to be Top 10 already |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 3, 2019 17:41:02 GMT -5
Are you guys sure the video of bad guy will count towards the Hot 100? It technically has 2 songs on it. If it doesn't count towards it I'll be shocked especially considering the other song is 13 seconds long Has Billboard done that before? If a music video mainly consists of one song but has another, shorter song in it, have they not counted that? That would be fun if a 13 second song charted, it would set a record by 32 seconds for shortest song |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 3, 2019 17:42:05 GMT -5
"Baby Shark" Baby shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Baby shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Baby shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Baby shark! Mommy shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Mommy shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Mommy shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Mommy shark! Daddy shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Daddy shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Daddy shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Daddy shark! Grandma shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Grandma shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Grandma shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Grandma shark! Grandpa shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Grandpa shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Grandpa shark, doo doo doo doo doo doo Grandpa shark! Let's go hunt, doo doo doo doo doo doo Let's go hunt, doo doo doo doo doo doo Let's go hunt, doo doo doo doo doo doo Let's go hunt! Run away, doo doo doo doo doo doo Run away, doo doo doo doo doo doo Run away, doo doo doo doo doo doo Run away! Safe at last, doo doo doo doo doo doo Safe at last, doo doo doo doo doo doo Safe at last, doo doo doo doo doo doo Safe at last! It's the end, doo doo doo doo doo doo It's the end, doo doo doo doo doo doo It's the end, doo doo doo doo doo doo It's the end! An iconic already classic. Needs to be Top 10 already Streaming needs to step up a bit more, that is the only thing keeping it around anyway. Been top 20 streaming for several weeks now |
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Apr 3, 2019 17:59:20 GMT -5
For programmed streams, I based it off the movement from 2 weeks ago on fhas' lists and extrapolated that to now. I believe he said album drops (Bad Guy) tend to get somewhere in the realm of 2-3m, while a viral hit (Old Town Road) wouldn't get as many as its regular brethren, so that's how I came up with the two newcomers. Incidentally, you mentioned uncertainty about 7R v.s. Wow. on Apple Music. Well, the good news is that Apple does a daily chart that combines versions. On it, 7 Rings has been holding a modest positional lead throughout the week (and Sunflower has also been leading Wow.), so it looks to me like we're looking a 700k-800k gap with the weekly total. Good point on Bad Guy's airplay, I assumed it might be getting curiosity spins on both Pop and Alt that could be aiding it, but even then 2 million only really makes sense on the kworb scale, not the Nielsen scale like I was going for here. For programmed streams, I usually put 0 for the first week because it's irrelevant in most cases (except for Nice For What and 7 rings) and Pandora takes a few weeks to play new songs. After 4-5 weeks, most songs stabilize so I only adjust when BB publishes official data or when I'm way off in my predictions. If you look at my top 10 breakdown you'll see how I basically used 4-5M during GLY's entire top 10 run and it worked well, imo. For on-demand streaming, I use data from the last two weeks to get to a formula that calculates this week's numbers. On the March 30 dated chart (two weeks ago), Wow and 7 rings were almost tied in non-Spotify streams. Hot 100 - March 30 7 rings: 50% Spotify (9.1M) x 50% others (9.0M) Wow: 54% Spotify (10.5M) x 46% others (9.1M) |
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xyz
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Post by xyz on Apr 3, 2019 18:26:46 GMT -5
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Post by Mayman on Apr 3, 2019 18:40:41 GMT -5
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tallen2001
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Post by tallen2001 on Apr 3, 2019 18:57:43 GMT -5
I’m hoping once it re enters that When The Party’s Over can stick around due to its rising airplay.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2019 18:59:23 GMT -5
If Sunflower goes back to #1, it would be the longest gap between topping the chart in one chart run.
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wjr15
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Post by wjr15 on Apr 3, 2019 19:08:37 GMT -5
If Sunflower goes back to #1, it would be the longest gap between topping the chart in one chart run. What song holds the current record? |
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Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ
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Post by Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ on Apr 3, 2019 19:22:42 GMT -5
^ I think Wrecking Ball?
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 3, 2019 19:31:38 GMT -5
yes
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 3, 2019 20:23:03 GMT -5
Nipsey Hussle's Songs Streamed More Than 100 Million Times in U.S. After Death
4/3/2019 by Keith Caulfield
After the death of Nipsey Hussle on Sunday (March 31), streams of his songs in the U.S. increased dramatically, according to initial reports to Nielsen Music, as fans remember the artist through streaming his music.
On Sunday and Monday, his catalog of songs collected 101.5 million on-demand streams (audio and video combined). That’s an increase of 1,773 percent compared to his streaming sum on Friday and Saturday: 5.4 million.
His top five most-streamed songs on Sunday and Monday were: “Racks in the Middle,” featuring Roddy Rich and Hit-Boy (11.8 million); “Dedication,” featuring Kendrick Lamar (9.6 million); “Double Up,” featuring Belly and Dom Kennedy (8.5 million); “Last Time That I Checc’d,” featuring YG (7.1 million); and “Hussle & Motivate” (2.9 million). The latter four tracks are all found on Hussle’s Victory Lap album, which is aiming for a return to the top 10 on next week’s Billboard 200 chart. “Racks” is a recently released stand-alone single.
Victory Lap is likely to re-enter the top 10 of the Billboard 200 chart and has a chance at returning to the top five. The set, which debuted and peaked at No. 4 on the March 3, 2018-dated chart, has been absent from the tally since the May 5, 2018, chart, where it ranked at No. 195.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2019 20:44:29 GMT -5
Almost 12M streams in 28 hours? It has hold up well on Apple Music at least, so maybe it will chart inside the top 20 or even top 10 on the Hot 100.
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Post by Mayman on Apr 3, 2019 20:57:18 GMT -5
I hope Simon is lowballing Billie's song though. I want "bury a friend", "when the party's over", and "you should see me in a crown" to get new peaks.
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Post by kcdawg13 on Apr 3, 2019 21:55:19 GMT -5
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85la
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Post by 85la on Apr 3, 2019 23:17:11 GMT -5
Even without diving into the numbers too much, given that this week's contenders are so close and there is no clear successor to 7 Ringz and that the turnover rate is still pretty slow, statistically speaking, the most likely #1 would be the song that is already there, which is why If I were to post in the predictions thread I would give 7 Ringz a 9th week.
I've always wondered that actually, regarding the predictions thread and the slow turnover rate/stagnant chart positions. Even if you didn't pay attention to the metrics at all, statistically speaking from week to week it would seem the most likely song in each position of the top ten would be the one that was there the previous week (more likely the closer you get to #1 obviously). Each week if you were to do this you would probably lose, but I bet if a cumulative score were taken into account, you would rank fairly high.
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