Billboard Hot 100: 4/13/2019

[badrobot]

Apr 3, 2019 9:30:24 GMT -5 renaboss said:

I can't really imagine the new Jonas Brothers song debuting at #1 again, I feel like the novelty of them reuniting has worn off. But again, artists keep pushing new songs so shortly after the old ones, when they haven't even stabilized yet. "Sucker" has a shot at being an actual hit, not just a frontloaded one, so why do this so suddenly? Don't tell me it's not about chart stats or streaming records. Every artist now has a "gotta get while the gettin's good" attitude towards putting out music and at some point that's gonna drain the fans.

To be fair, the idea of putting out a new song every few weeks in advance of an album has been around for at least a decade -- but the rise of streaming has given each new song more prominence than it did in the past, as labels have a lot less control about what catches on than they did when radio was more vital to breaking hits and required more of a concentrated label push. (But let's not forget that not every song becomes notable in this process, Ariana's "Imagine" was inbetween TUN and 7 Rings, for example.)

I don't really buy the argument that fans get sick of this though. If you love an artist, you're going to be excited about getting new music (as long as it's good). Oversaturation rarely actually hurts an artist.

[xyz]

Billie holding strong in Spotify. Bad Guy with 2,596,599 streams for Tuesday. 7/10 songs in the top 10

Monopoly up to #15 with 1,005,694

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Monopoly already fell to #2 in iTunes.

[𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤]

Apr 3, 2019 9:57:11 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

I've Been Waiting up to #1 on Shazam, for some reason.

Its getting a fair amount of airplay. I have 2 pop stations & 1 alt nearby, all three are spamming it

[𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤]

Do we think “!!!!!!!” Is going to debut? I reeeeally hope so, but the chances are next to nothing now.

[rimetm]

The YouTube daily updates appear to be tagging Bad Guy's MV views as !!!!!'s since technically both songs are in the MV and it's first. If Billboard really fails a spot-check and doesn't correct that, then yes, there's a possibility. However, I think they'll treat it as a skit and not count it like some other album bombs, and the YT views should go to Bad Guy.

[hot100predictions]

bad guy is going #1 this week. ya'll come at me, this song is sooo strong right now.

[85la]

Apr 3, 2019 5:47:40 GMT -5 Mayman said:

How anyone can agree with that or think is funny is beyond me. That post tries to get rid of bullies, while at the same time bullying other people. Just shows how low some of you guys' standards are.

Yes, ironically that post is far more bullyish, homophobic ("deeply introverted homosexuals," "miserable twinks"), and highly insensitive than anything else I've seen in this thread so far, probably anything I've seen on all of Pulse over the years. They really know how to hit someone where it hurts and strike a nerve. Even regardless of their own sexual orientation, it's entirely possible for people within our own community to discriminate and slander each other. I absolutely reported that post and honestly someone like that should be banned, and would also say they must be deeply lacking in self confidence and their personal lives.

Apr 3, 2019 5:56:57 GMT -5 imbondz said:

Lighten up dude. It was funnny. You kids today take offense at everything. That can’t be fun.

And he’s not bullying anyone he’s calling out people’s hypocrisy.

Well, not too many of us seem to be laughing, and sorry for not having fun and taking offense to callously homophobic, ageist, and clearly slanderous and personal attacks. Your and his point also doesn't make sense - how is calling someone a "deeply introverted homosexual who is obsessed with divas and chart stats," a "middle-aged poster here since the mid-2000's," or a "miserable twink," calling out hypocrisy? Are you saying that these people are bullies just by the very nature of them being these things, or that they are somehow more likely to bully others or that being these things is somehow bad?

[rimetm]

Apr 3, 2019 13:54:55 GMT -5 hot100predictions said:

bad guy is going #1 this week. ya'll come at me, this song is sooo strong right now.

I'm having my doubts, the YouTube numbers are going down pretty fast, and radio's just not coming to its aid yet. Apple Music and Spotify alone aren't gonna be enough to carry a victory. At this point, I'd say the odds are looking like:

30% 7 Rings
25% Wow.
20% Old Town Road
15% Bad Guy
10% Sunflower

[jodakyellow]

Apr 3, 2019 10:03:20 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Apr 3, 2019 9:30:24 GMT -5 renaboss said:

I can't really imagine the new Jonas Brothers song debuting at #1 again, I feel like the novelty of them reuniting has worn off. But again, artists keep pushing new songs so shortly after the old ones, when they haven't even stabilized yet. "Sucker" has a shot at being an actual hit, not just a frontloaded one, so why do this so suddenly? Don't tell me it's not about chart stats or streaming records. Every artist now has a "gotta get while the gettin's good" attitude towards putting out music and at some point that's gonna drain the fans.

To be fair, the idea of putting out a new song every few weeks in advance of an album has been around for at least a decade

Not only that, but the Jonas Brothers themselves pioneered it with their A Little Bit Longer roll-out, months before Taylor Swift did it with Fearless.

[jeiboy]

Apr 3, 2019 13:54:55 GMT -5 hot100predictions said:

bad guy is going #1 this week. ya'll come at me, this song is sooo strong right now.

It's only strong in Spotify and Apple Music

[Naos]

Yeah, I don't quite understand the accusation of hypocrisy. It implies that the groups described are intrinsically bullies. If you pointed out individuals bullying, then there would be a point. And even then, I wouldn't consider it justifiable. The "lighten up dude" can literally be applied to any s**tty comment. "It was just a joke bro", is not an excuse to be asshole. If anything, the hypocrisy is insulting users of this site for watching the charts while simultaneously doing it yourself. Otherwise, you wouldn't be here. r/popheads does exist if you just care about sharing your opinions on music in general.

I don't see how taking offense is inherently bad either. People likely aren't any more offended than they were in the past, it's just the internet has enabled everyone to be more vocal about their being offended. This concept that past generations are better than millennials and Gen Z and that the newer generations are all "snowflakes" is all about nostalgia for past eras that cloud what the past actually was. 

[Au$tin]

Apr 3, 2019 13:54:55 GMT -5 hot100predictions said:

bad guy is going #1 this week. ya'll come at me, this song is sooo strong right now.

OTR is literally ahead of it in all metrics except Spotify and Apple Music, and even in those two it's right behind it.

[hot100predictions]

Apr 3, 2019 15:38:27 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Apr 3, 2019 13:54:55 GMT -5 hot100predictions said:

bad guy is going #1 this week. ya'll come at me, this song is sooo strong right now.

OTR is literally ahead of it in all metrics except Spotify and Apple Music, and even in those two it's right behind it.

Nearly 1m streams ahead on Spotify, but go off Austin!! Tell me more, tell me more!!

[Au$tin]

Apr 3, 2019 15:49:25 GMT -5 hot100predictions said:

Apr 3, 2019 15:38:27 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

OTR is literally ahead of it in all metrics except Spotify and Apple Music, and even in those two it's right behind it.

Nearly 1m streams ahead on Spotify, but go off Austin!! Tell me more, tell me more!!

1 million per day isn't going to be enough to cover the sales and airplay gap. Don't forget streaming is weighted too. That 1 million can easily turn to 200k if OTR has more paid streams than bad guy, which is entirely possible since hip-hop consistently has more paid streams than any other genre. OTR also has a 750k daily lead on YouTube and it's only increasing as the week goes along. Also on the first day (was it even the first two days?) OTR was ahead of bad guy on Apple Music. It's entirely possible bad guy won't even beat OTR in streaming this week because they really are going to be really close to each other. OTR has also been ahead of bad guy all week long on iTunes. Then there's the fact that OTR is one of the fastest gaining songs on radio this week while bad guy hasn't even been pushed to radio.

So, yeah, I'm pretty confident in saying bad guy has no shot at #1 this week if OTR is almost 100% for certain going to be ahead of it. And I don't even think OTR is going to be #1 this week. I think 7r is going to spend its final week on top this week before OTR takes over next week.

And for what it's worth, I get the feeling you think I'm trying to argue with you or disagree with you just for the sake of arguing based off the sarcastic tone of your post, but in reality I'm actually just trying to engage in actual discussion on the charts in this thread specifically made for the discussion of said charts.

[Deleted]

Apr 3, 2019 15:52:47 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Apr 3, 2019 15:49:25 GMT -5 hot100predictions said:

Nearly 1m streams ahead on Spotify, but go off Austin!! Tell me more, tell me more!!

1 million per day isn't going to be enough to cover the sales and airplay gap. Don't forget streaming is weighted too. That 1 million can easily turn to 200k if OTR has more paid streams than bad guy, which is entirely possible since hip-hop consistently has more paid streams than any other genre. OTR also has a 750k daily lead on YouTube and it's only increasing as the week goes along. Also on the first day (was it even the first two days?) OTR was ahead of bad guy on Apple Music. It's entirely possible bad guy won't even beat OTR in streaming this week because they really are going to be really close to each other. OTR has also been ahead of bad guy all week long on iTunes. Then there's the fact that OTR is one of the fastest gaining songs on radio this week while bad guy hasn't even been pushed to radio.

So, yeah, I'm pretty confident in saying bad guy has no shot at #1 this week if OTR is almost 100% for certain going to be ahead of it. And I don't even think OTR is going to be #1 this week. I think 7r is going to spend its final week on top this week before OTR takes over next week.

And for what it's worth, I get the feeling you think I'm trying to argue with you or disagree with you just for the sake of arguing based off the sarcastic tone of your post, but in reality I'm actually just trying to engage in actual discussion on the charts in this thread specifically made for the discussion of said charts.

So you think Bad Guy has to debut at number one and can't naturally gain to the top?

[kcdawg13]

7 rings is gonna be #1 again, Bad Guy just doesn't have the radio.

Old Town Road is next

[hot100predictions]

Apr 3, 2019 16:11:23 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

7 rings is gonna be #1 again, Bad Guy just doesn't have the radio.

Old Town Road is next

Billie will have her first #1 in no time, 7 rings is not going to be #1 this week. Honestly, if Bad Guy isn't then Wow. will likely be #1. #1 is a rare toss-up. But I have to say Bad Guy is just the favorite, IMO!!

[hot100predictions]

Bad Guy is going nowhere, and will likely be a summer song threat up until Drake, Rihanna, Justin Bieber or literally any other big artist releases their new music. However, excited to see if Justin Bieber flops on streaming services or if he succeeds, but I feel like the week he comes back he will have massive hype similar to the Jonas Brothers.

[Au$tin]

Apr 3, 2019 16:09:56 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

Apr 3, 2019 15:52:47 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

1 million per day isn't going to be enough to cover the sales and airplay gap. Don't forget streaming is weighted too. That 1 million can easily turn to 200k if OTR has more paid streams than bad guy, which is entirely possible since hip-hop consistently has more paid streams than any other genre. OTR also has a 750k daily lead on YouTube and it's only increasing as the week goes along. Also on the first day (was it even the first two days?) OTR was ahead of bad guy on Apple Music. It's entirely possible bad guy won't even beat OTR in streaming this week because they really are going to be really close to each other. OTR has also been ahead of bad guy all week long on iTunes. Then there's the fact that OTR is one of the fastest gaining songs on radio this week while bad guy hasn't even been pushed to radio.

So, yeah, I'm pretty confident in saying bad guy has no shot at #1 this week if OTR is almost 100% for certain going to be ahead of it. And I don't even think OTR is going to be #1 this week. I think 7r is going to spend its final week on top this week before OTR takes over next week.

And for what it's worth, I get the feeling you think I'm trying to argue with you or disagree with you just for the sake of arguing based off the sarcastic tone of your post, but in reality I'm actually just trying to engage in actual discussion on the charts in this thread specifically made for the discussion of said charts.

So you think Bad Guy has to debut at number one and can't naturally gain to the top?

What? Where did I say that? I'm not clairvoyant, so I have no idea if bad guy could eventually reach #1 sometime down the road, but I can look at the trends to determine it's not happening at least in the next two weeks. bad guy could in theory be pushed to radio and blow up and become a #1 on the Hot 100, but that's not what this discussion is about.

[hot100predictions]

Apr 3, 2019 15:52:47 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Apr 3, 2019 15:49:25 GMT -5 hot100predictions said:

Nearly 1m streams ahead on Spotify, but go off Austin!! Tell me more, tell me more!!

1 million per day isn't going to be enough to cover the sales and airplay gap. Don't forget streaming is weighted too. That 1 million can easily turn to 200k if OTR has more paid streams than bad guy, which is entirely possible since hip-hop consistently has more paid streams than any other genre. OTR also has a 750k daily lead on YouTube and it's only increasing as the week goes along. Also on the first day (was it even the first two days?) OTR was ahead of bad guy on Apple Music. It's entirely possible bad guy won't even beat OTR in streaming this week because they really are going to be really close to each other. OTR has also been ahead of bad guy all week long on iTunes. Then there's the fact that OTR is one of the fastest gaining songs on radio this week while bad guy hasn't even been pushed to radio.

So, yeah, I'm pretty confident in saying bad guy has no shot at #1 this week if OTR is almost 100% for certain going to be ahead of it. And I don't even think OTR is going to be #1 this week. I think 7r is going to spend its final week on top this week before OTR takes over next week.

And for what it's worth, I get the feeling you think I'm trying to argue with you or disagree with you just for the sake of arguing based off the sarcastic tone of your post, but in reality I'm actually just trying to engage in actual discussion on the charts in this thread specifically made for the discussion of said charts.

Very respectful, and I apologize for making it sound that way. Hopefully all these songs have a shot at #1, especially since Snapchat literally already said Old Town Road was already a #1 record, lol. Just wish all of our favs, could go #1. Which doesn't always happen. But will one day. Post. Miley. Ari. Drake. JB. Lil Nas X (lol).

[Au$tin]

Apr 3, 2019 16:14:48 GMT -5 hot100predictions said:

7 rings is not going to be #1 this week. Honestly, if Bad Guy isn't then Wow. will likely be #1.

What is your reasoning behind thinking this? What is it about the current stats that make you think 7 rings will absolutely not be #1 this week?

[hot100predictions]

It's also funny and no one cares so I don't even know why I'm saying this right now, but months ago, I made predictions that Ari and Billie would both have their first #1s and I am just waiting for Billie too, like of course she will, she just needs to care about radio, which in all of her interviews she could literally give zero fucks about lol.

[hot100predictions]

Apr 3, 2019 16:19:59 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Apr 3, 2019 16:14:48 GMT -5 hot100predictions said:

7 rings is not going to be #1 this week. Honestly, if Bad Guy isn't then Wow. will likely be #1.

What is your reasoning behind thinking this? What is it about the current stats that make you think 7 rings will absolutely not be #1 this week?

Not doing well in streams and sales, are behind Wow., Bad Guy and (lol) even Old Town Road. She has radio and a ton of it, so it won't dip too many spots, but it may not even be #2 this week.

1. bad guy, Wow., Old Town Road, 7 rings
2. bad guy, Wow., Old Town Road, 7 rings

bad guy is the strong candidate this week as well as Wow. and even Old Town Road. All have higher sales and streams than 7 rings.

[Deleted]

Apr 3, 2019 16:17:39 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Apr 3, 2019 16:09:56 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

So you think Bad Guy has to debut at number one and can't naturally gain to the top?

What? Where did I say that? I'm not clairvoyant, so I have no idea if bad guy could eventually reach #1 sometime down the road, but I can look at the trends to determine it's not happening at least in the next two weeks. bad guy could in theory be pushed to radio and blow up and become a #1 on the Hot 100, but that's not what this discussion is about.

Sorry to imply that you did lol I just confused, you said bad guy isn't going number one but you just meant this week, though you could of meant it's never gonna go number one. 

[hot100predictions]

bad guy and Old Town Road are likely going #1 next. Old Town Road, is like on course for this week as well as Bad Guy, even Wow. And I feel like Billboard will shock us all and like add some weird like remix made on YT for Wow. so that it sneaks in a week.

[gabe]

Apr 3, 2019 16:19:59 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Apr 3, 2019 16:14:48 GMT -5 hot100predictions said:

7 rings is not going to be #1 this week. Honestly, if Bad Guy isn't then Wow. will likely be #1.

What is your reasoning behind thinking this? What is it about the current stats that make you think 7 rings will absolutely not be #1 this week?

I thought we've gone over the fact that hot100predictions does not use stats of any kind.

[Gary]

Let's leave the poor guy alone and let him have his predictions. Whether they are accurate or not doesn't really matter

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Yeah, who cares why people predict the way they do? In the end, you’ll get the actual chart and not actually talk about it because you’ll be too busy predicting next week anyway. May as well argue with grandma on why she picked the numbers she did for tonight’s lottery draw. Serves the same purpose.

[jtd Thee Stallion]

fhas we need your wisdom