carriekins
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With my mouth wide open in a whiskey rain, I could stand here 24 hours a day...
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Post by carriekins on Sept 25, 2019 7:02:26 GMT -5
They aren't going for a second week for Dierks. Then shouldn’t he be negative in spins by now? He lost spins in yesterday's update. It's one of the best-testing songs at radio so radio isn't going to drop it like a rock ( sabre14 had mentioned this in the Living thread) but they had Thank You ads out on Monday. They aren't actively pushing Living anymore. At this point, it's radio keeping it elevated.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Sept 25, 2019 7:05:15 GMT -5
Then shouldn’t he be negative in spins by now? He lost spins in yesterday's update. It's one of the best-testing songs at radio so radio isn't going to drop it like a rock ( sabre14 had mentioned this in the Living thread) but they had Thank You ads out on Monday. They aren't actively pushing Living anymore. At this point, it's radio keeping it elevated. Well, regardless, I’m not quite sure what Capitol’s plan for Carrie is yet. The top 5 is now super crowded and I don’t know if waiting it out would work. She’s going to have to gain a good number of spins to stay competitive with the others.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Sept 25, 2019 11:18:51 GMT -5
Yeah unfortunately Dierks is just falling super slowly because his song was a huge hit that radio isn’t in a hurry to stop giving heavy rotation to. I really wanted to see either Dierks or Chris get a second week at #1 after seeing Luke Bryan get two but it just isn’t in the cards this time. However, that’s a good sign for Carrie who should be maxing next week. Dierks and Chris will both clear out of the way for her final push and she should have no trouble at the very least getting to #1 on Mediabase and #2 on Billboard. The only problem is Matt Stell on Billboard. But with a big push I think Carrie has a fighting chance of overtaking him on Billboard as well, maybe about 50-50.
I guess the lesson here is to follow the co-host schedule on Lon Helton’s program pretty closely, as everyone’s stuck pretty closely to the pattern of co-hosting the Sunday before their max spins week lately. The other lesson is Whackadoodle may post fake news when he’s under the influence...Sorry folks. I’ll be more careful next time, lol.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Sept 27, 2019 8:07:14 GMT -5
Any projections based on today's update? PFY flew by SB pushing Carrie back to #4... Curious as to what chart watchers think?
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Sept 27, 2019 11:04:30 GMT -5
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HeyHeyHey
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Sept 27, 2019 11:09:11 GMT -5
Any projections based on today's update? PFY flew by SB pushing Carrie back to #4... Curious as to what chart watchers think? I hate to be the one to say it but I could very easily see this one peaking at #2 on BB but getting to #1 on Mediabase. Matt/Carrie will be battling it out next week for sure.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Sept 29, 2019 17:47:20 GMT -5
Things are looking rough for this. Matt passed this on MB and Cole and Chris are hot on his heels. UMG better put all they got into this, otherwise #4 is probably as far as it will go
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Post by Elusive Chanteuse on Sept 29, 2019 18:18:27 GMT -5
Things are looking rough for this. Matt passed this on MB and Cole and Chris are hot on his heels. UMG better put all they got into this, otherwise #4 is probably as far as it will go It will go at least Top 2. The push started today and will continue until Saturday. A likely scenario is this getting #1 on Mediabase but #2 on Billboard.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Sept 30, 2019 11:21:34 GMT -5
Things are looking rough for this. Matt passed this on MB and Cole and Chris are hot on his heels. UMG better put all they got into this, otherwise #4 is probably as far as it will go It will go at least Top 2. The push started today and will continue until Saturday. A likely scenario is this getting #1 on Mediabase but #2 on Billboard. If they’re pushing this week, they could’ve fooled me. She’s still 10 million from Chris Lane, who should be free falling after today. It’s all going to come down to Matt Stell’s label and whether they are going to slow down and let Carrie get her #1 or challenge for #1. Matt is going #1 regardless, but this is clearly the final week for Southbound.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Sept 30, 2019 11:43:49 GMT -5
They are pushing this week evident by the +100 spin gain today alone. That being said I imagine this song will probably be a Mediabase only #1 because "Southbound" audience gains has just been lackluster and the audience gap is just a bit too much to make up on Billboard.
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Post by lady𝓐fan on Sept 30, 2019 11:52:59 GMT -5
I think Carrie still has a chance at nabbing that Billboard #1. Matt Stell's audience is 10 million below usual #1 levels, so they're obviously not going for max spins this week. If he gains, say, 4 million AI this week he'll be at around 45 million, which isn't a huge hurdle to clear considering Chris Lane gained nearly 7 million AI last week. I suspect we'll get a clearer picture of how this week is going to play out tomorrow, though.
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HeyHeyHey
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Sept 30, 2019 19:26:57 GMT -5
I hope this one can make it to #1 on BB next week just because it is one of my favorite recent Carrie singles. This week between her and Matt should be interesting.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Oct 1, 2019 8:26:43 GMT -5
Via Carriefans.com:
SB passes PFY and moves to #3 (+239 spins/+1.242 AIs) 3 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Southbound 7360 6700 660 40.871
... looks like they’re pushing hard for #1 on both charts.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Oct 1, 2019 8:43:31 GMT -5
Via Carriefans.com: SB passes PFY and moves to #3 (+239 spins/+1.242 AIs) 3 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Southbound 7360 6700 660 40.871 ... looks like they’re pushing hard for #1 on both charts. Makes sense, since this song has been in the Top 10 for awhile and I imagine they wanna get a new single out there a few weeks before the CMA Awards
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Post by Wackadoodle on Oct 1, 2019 15:55:09 GMT -5
There's no denying what happened here. Universal chose Luke Bryan over Carrie Underwood. They could've let Luke's "Knockin' Boots," which didn't have any better numbers than this, go after one week, but they chose to push for that second week, delay the schedule a week, and allow Matt to pass Carrie. Decisions have been made. Sacrifices have been offered. It'll still be a net total of three weeks at #1 on Billboard for Universal, but it'll be two for Luke and one for Dierks instead of one each for Luke, Dierks and Carrie. I guess this allows them to have three Billboard #1s and a Mediabase #1 instead of three solid #1s, so that's where they calculated they make a profit. Favoritism? All this political nonsense is typical of sleazy corporate Dungan. Shame!
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Oct 1, 2019 16:00:31 GMT -5
There's no denying what happened here. Universal chose Luke Bryan over Carrie Underwood. They could've let Luke's "Knockin' Boots," which didn't have any better numbers than this, go after one week, but they chose to push for that second week, delay the schedule a week, and allow Matt to pass Carrie. Decisions have been made. Sacrifices have been offered. It'll still be a net total of three weeks at #1 on Billboard for Universal, but it'll be two for Luke and one for Dierks instead of one each for Luke, Dierks and Carrie. I guess this allows them to have three Billboard #1s and a Mediabase #1 instead of three solid #1s, so that's where they calculated they make a profit. Favoritism? All this political nonsense is typical of sleazy corporate Dungan. Shame! For all we know Carrie Underwood could still get the Billboard #1 judging by today's update, and at the end of the day Luke Bryan did have the biggest popular hit out of all 3 songs anyway.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Oct 1, 2019 16:24:08 GMT -5
There's no denying what happened here. Universal chose Luke Bryan over Carrie Underwood. They could've let Luke's "Knockin' Boots," which didn't have any better numbers than this, go after one week, but they chose to push for that second week, delay the schedule a week, and allow Matt to pass Carrie. Decisions have been made. Sacrifices have been offered. It'll still be a net total of three weeks at #1 on Billboard for Universal, but it'll be two for Luke and one for Dierks instead of one each for Luke, Dierks and Carrie. I guess this allows them to have three Billboard #1s and a Mediabase #1 instead of three solid #1s, so that's where they calculated they make a profit. Favoritism? All this political nonsense is typical of sleazy corporate Dungan. Shame! For all we know Carrie Underwood could still get the Billboard #1 judging by today's update, and at the end of the day Luke Bryan did have the biggest popular hit out of all 3 songs anyway. Eh, it could happen, but probably won't. I'd give my opponent a better chance of winning the Senate race than I'd give Carrie of getting her #1. I'm sympathetic to Carrie because I hate that "Knockin' Boots" song, but I do understand your argument. Luke has slightly better numbers, and the labels are just trying to max every hit as best as they can.
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HeyHeyHey
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Oct 1, 2019 16:31:24 GMT -5
For all we know Carrie Underwood could still get the Billboard #1 judging by today's update, and at the end of the day Luke Bryan did have the biggest popular hit out of all 3 songs anyway. Eh, it could happen, but probably won't. I'd give my opponent a better chance of winning the Senate race than I'd give Carrie of getting her #1. I'm sympathetic to Carrie because I hate that "Knockin' Boots" song, but I do understand your argument. Luke has slightly better numbers, and the labels are just trying to max every hit as best as they can. You’re running for Senate?
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Post by Wackadoodle on Oct 1, 2019 16:35:26 GMT -5
Eh, it could happen, but probably won't. I'd give my opponent a better chance of winning the Senate race than I'd give Carrie of getting her #1. I'm sympathetic to Carrie because I hate that "Knockin' Boots" song, but I do understand your argument. Luke has slightly better numbers, and the labels are just trying to max every hit as best as they can. You’re running for Senate? Let's keep that out of this thread, please. But yes. Basically, the impression I'm getting is that Universal knows they can't get the Billboard #1. It's an easy Mediabase but an out-of-reach Billboard situation. Audience gains for Carrie and Matt are about the same.
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jhomes87
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Post by jhomes87 on Oct 1, 2019 17:05:13 GMT -5
For all we know Carrie Underwood could still get the Billboard #1 judging by today's update, and at the end of the day Luke Bryan did have the biggest popular hit out of all 3 songs anyway. Eh, it could happen, but probably won't. I'd give my opponent a better chance of winning the Senate race than I'd give Carrie of getting her #1. I'm sympathetic to Carrie because I hate that "Knockin' Boots" song, but I do understand your argument. Luke has slightly better numbers, and the labels are just trying to max every hit as best as they can. How are your callout numbers looking? ;) But to keep things relevant to the thread -- I'm also rather pessimistic about Carrie's chances for the Billboard #1. She had a monster gain today, but a lot of the time these monster pushes result in a fabricated Mediabase-only #1, and a peak of #2 or #3 on Billboard. And with Carrie's push starting on Sunday (yesterday's update), it likely means that Capitol is correlating it to the Mediabase tracking period (Sunday through Saturday) rather than the Billboard tracking period (Monday through Sunday). I worry that even though she'll probably surge ahead of Matt Stell long before the weekend, this might still end up being one of those situations where he passes her back (at least on Billboard) on the 7th and final day of the tracking period, which would allow Matt to get 2 or even 3 weeks at #1 on Billboard, and at least 1 week at #1 on Mediabase, while Carrie might be relegated to a Mediabase-only #1.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Oct 1, 2019 17:25:10 GMT -5
You’re running for Senate? Let's keep that out of this thread, please. But yes. You were literally the one who brought it into this thread, but okay.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Oct 1, 2019 17:42:40 GMT -5
Eh, it could happen, but probably won't. I'd give my opponent a better chance of winning the Senate race than I'd give Carrie of getting her #1. I'm sympathetic to Carrie because I hate that "Knockin' Boots" song, but I do understand your argument. Luke has slightly better numbers, and the labels are just trying to max every hit as best as they can. How are your callout numbers looking? But to keep things relevant to the thread -- I'm also rather pessimistic about Carrie's chances for the Billboard #1. She had a monster gain today, but a lot of the time these monster pushes result in a fabricated Mediabase-only #1, and a peak of #2 or #3 on Billboard. And with Carrie's push starting on Sunday (yesterday's update), it likely means that Capitol is correlating it to the Mediabase tracking period (Sunday through Saturday) rather than the Billboard tracking period (Monday through Sunday). I worry that even though she'll probably surge ahead of Matt Stell long before the weekend, this might still end up being one of those situations where he passes her back (at least on Billboard) on the 7th and final day of the tracking period, which would allow Matt to get 2 or even 3 weeks at #1 on Billboard, and at least 1 week at #1 on Mediabase, while Carrie might be relegated to a Mediabase-only #1. Thanks for the input. I do apologize for getting so intense when discussing all of this. I just get so into these things and get so excited and really want my people to win, but anyway, back to this. I'm on Carrie's side here. I like this song way better than her past two singles. I saw her live with my little brother and he really wants this. She did a really good performance. But I see what happened. The label chose Luke over her because it was clear that the current country radio audience preferred "Knockin' Boots" to "Southbound." They feel that's a fair decision and I can't blame them. I don't think Carrie's even trying for the Billboard #1 this time around, unfortunately. They'll just have to take what they can get. Callout numbers, sales numbers, poll numbers...It's all so exciting! This kind of stuff is honestly why I love country radio.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2019 12:32:11 GMT -5
Let's keep that out of this thread, please. But yes. You were literally the one who brought it into this thread, but okay. Said it before I could. 😅😂
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Oct 2, 2019 16:12:23 GMT -5
Back to the single....today’s update looked really good. I don’t think they’re going for max spins for Matt, so this is probably Carrie’s best shot at a #1. Dierks and Chris are still hovering at the top, but we shall see what happens.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Oct 2, 2019 17:43:51 GMT -5
Back to the single....today’s update looked really good. I don’t think they’re going for max spins for Matt, so this is probably Carrie’s best shot at a #1. Dierks and Chris are still hovering at the top, but we shall see what happens. I hope you're right. I saw Matt Stell's move on the airplay chart and thought he would ruin Carrie Underwood's chances for a #1 here. I want her to get her first chart topper on Capitol.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Oct 2, 2019 21:14:39 GMT -5
Back to the single....today’s update looked really good. I don’t think they’re going for max spins for Matt, so this is probably Carrie’s best shot at a #1. Dierks and Chris are still hovering at the top, but we shall see what happens. I hope you're right. I saw Matt Stell's move on the airplay chart and thought he would ruin Carrie Underwood's chances for a #1 here. I want her to get her first chart topper on Capitol. It all depends on how hard Capitol wants to push. Matt’s single is naturally rising fast. I think the MB #1 is a done deal, but the BB #1 might be more difficult. I want that BB #1 though, as she hasn’t hit #1 on country airplay since Church Bells hit #1 in July 2016.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2019 7:45:35 GMT -5
Mediabase #1 as of this morning.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Oct 4, 2019 8:32:48 GMT -5
Mediabase #1 as of this morning. Yeppers: 4 1 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Southbound 7869 6834 1035 44.601 It's the biggest spin increase in the top 50. This weekend will be interesting. It'll be Carrie Underwood versus Matt Stell. It'll be Underwood versus her former label, Arista. I want Capitol to push the ENTIRE weekend and get the Billboard #1. I will not settle for anything less.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Oct 4, 2019 8:57:52 GMT -5
Mediabase #1 as of this morning. Yeppers: 4 1 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Southbound 7869 6834 1035 44.601 It's the biggest spin increase in the top 50. This weekend will be interesting. It'll be Carrie Underwood versus Matt Stell. It'll be Underwood versus her former label, Arista. I want Capitol to push the ENTIRE weekend and get the Billboard #1. I will not settle for anything less. Agreed. Arista needs to chill out and let Carrie get her #1. Matt is likely going to have multiple weeks at #1, so let Carrie have her one week at the top. I’ll be disappointed if this ends up being a Mediabase-only #1.
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matty005
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Post by matty005 on Oct 4, 2019 9:22:53 GMT -5
Mediabase #1 as of this morning. Yeppers: 4 1 CARRIE UNDERWOOD Southbound 7869 6834 1035 44.601 It's the biggest spin increase in the top 50. This weekend will be interesting. It'll be Carrie Underwood versus Matt Stell. It'll be Underwood versus her former label, Arista. I want Capitol to push the ENTIRE weekend and get the Billboard #1. I will not settle for anything less.I don't think you have much say in the matter, Buff.
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