Billboard Hot 100: 06/22/19

[Au$tin]

Don't we kind of need a second song available to chart before we make these assumptions one way or the other? There's literally no other song from him comercially available. And as we all know, quality and success don't go hand in hand, so discussing the quality and hit potential of his other Soundcloud releases based purely on how they sound is a moot point. You could talk about how the songs fit into current trends, but even that's not being done here. Use the stats, people! This is a thread about stats.

[Choco]

These One Hit Wonders discussion always get derailed by the same arguments and it's kind of boring:

"But Billy Ray is now on the #1 song in the country!"
"But Carly Rae had that Owl City feature!"
"But Lil Nas X has 134 amazing songs!"
"But Portugal. The Man hit #97 on Alternative radio with their follow-up single!"

FWIW if the definition of a hit is a song that charts inside top 40 on the Hot 100 for a single week, Lil Nas X will surely beat that, it's the streaming age after all...

[Naos]

Jun 13, 2019 18:24:53 GMT -5 Choco said:

These One Hit Wonders discussion always get derailed by the same arguments and it's kind of boring:

"But Billy Ray is now on the #1 song in the country!"
"But Carly Rae had that Owl City feature!"
"But Lil Nas X has 134 amazing songs!"
"But Portugal. The Man hit #97 on Alternative radio with their follow-up single!"

FWIW if the definition of a hit is a song that charts inside top 40 on the Hot 100 for a single week, Lil Nas X will surely beat that, it's the streaming age after all...

What is a "hit" is subjective. For example, I base it more on longevity and RIAA certifications, as well as peak. I don't think a song that debuts in the Top 10 and tumbles down like a BTS single is a bigger hit than a song that peaks in the 20s and is multi-platinum. It's hard to call an artist with multiple multi-platinum well-known singles as a one-hit wonder, but someone who had a few chart appearances here and there and a big hit could be considered one. In the case of Jepsen, it wasn't a feature, and definitely wasn't because of Owl City's name recognition, given he stopped having any real chart traction for three years before that happened, and disappeared right after. 

Also, if we use the Top 40 definition, Billy Ray Cyrus wasn't a one-hit wonder before "Old Town Road". He had a song peak at #37 after "Achy Breaky Heart", but it was barely a hit even within country, let alone the mainstream. 

How many artists built their careers off meme/joke songs though? I don't see Asher Roth, Bauuer, and Piko-Taro getting big hits anymore.

[tanooki]

Jun 13, 2019 18:53:51 GMT -5 Naos said:

How many artists built their careers off meme/joke songs though? I don't see Asher Roth, Bauuer, and Piko-Taro getting big hits anymore.

It's rare that it happens, but it's mostly rappers. Soulja Boy, XXXTentacion, Migos, Drake, Post Malone, 6ix9ine, etc. all either used memes to kickstart their career or help them continue to be massive.

[thegreatdivine]

Jun 13, 2019 11:10:14 GMT -5 king_billboard_100 said:

Jun 12, 2019 6:19:47 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

But isn't that a bit unfair? The version that's been #1 for 10 weeks is the remix, but don't points from the original song also count towards that? It had to be combined with it's original version to put up those Spotify numbers you mentioned, but the lone remix version didn't do anything close to that. What are the peak numbers ONLY the remix reached? Right now, it's barely putting up 1.5 million daily streams on Spotify US.

I don't know, I don't feel good about songs that ride the charts with multiple versions. I felt the same way about Ed Sheeran's Perfect. He released like 3-4 versions and the points from each version counted towards one song. Can't compare songs like that with other songs that have just one version. I remember when the Weeknd extended his stay at #1 by releasing remixes to I Can't Feel My Face with Eminem and another with Nicki Minaj. Things like that just come across at tacky to me, even though it's stuff that's always been done, lol.

The remix with Eminem was "The Hills" not "I Cant feel my face".

THANK YOU. I knew I got something wrong about the detail of the song. The Weeknd released two remixes for the Hills, one with Nicki Minaj and one with Eminem, to extend it's stay at #1. Thanks for the correction.

[Naos]

Jun 13, 2019 19:00:18 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Jun 13, 2019 18:53:51 GMT -5 Naos said:

How many artists built their careers off meme/joke songs though? I don't see Asher Roth, Bauuer, and Piko-Taro getting big hits anymore.

It's rare that it happens, but it's mostly rappers. Soulja Boy, XXXTentacion, Migos, Drake, Post Malone, 6ix9ine, etc. all either used memes to kickstart their career or help them continue to be massive.

With Drake, he was already established. Soulja Boy has been largely forgotten, and XXXTENTACION got bigger because of his death. 6ix9ine seemed on his way out as well. I should reiterate, you can't make a long-lasting career off of memes.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Or virality in general. I don't think we'll be hearing from Pinkfong.

[tanooki]

Jun 13, 2019 19:12:32 GMT -5 Naos said:

Jun 13, 2019 19:00:18 GMT -5 tanooki said:

It's rare that it happens, but it's mostly rappers. Soulja Boy, XXXTentacion, Migos, Drake, Post Malone, 6ix9ine, etc. all either used memes to kickstart their career or help them continue to be massive.

With Drake, he was already established. Soulja Boy has been largely forgotten, and XXXTENTACION got bigger because of his death. 6ix9ine seemed on his way out as well. I should reiterate, you can't make a long-lasting career off of memes.

I thought this was just about them having sustained careers, not the longevity of their careers. Soulja Boy, X, and 69 all had other massive hits besides their first meme hit. I mentioned Drake and Post because from what I've seen, meme culture has helped drive their sustained success.

[Naos]

Jun 13, 2019 19:47:30 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Jun 13, 2019 19:12:32 GMT -5 Naos said:

With Drake, he was already established. Soulja Boy has been largely forgotten, and XXXTENTACION got bigger because of his death. 6ix9ine seemed on his way out as well. I should reiterate, you can't make a long-lasting career off of memes.

I thought this was just about them having sustained careers, not the longevity of their careers. Soulja Boy, X, and 69 all had other massive hits besides their first meme hit. I mentioned Drake and Post because from what I've seen, meme culture has helped drive their sustained success.

Sustained: "continuing for an extended period or without interruption."

Longevity: "Long duration or continuance, as in an occupation." 

It's not like they're too different.

[Xander]

Nicki Minaj is dropping a new song next week. I wonder if it’ll do well on the charts, considering her past singles did terribly.

[Choco]

Using RIAA certifications in the streaming age is kinda tricky. Would you call all the Cardi B tracks hits? They are all at least gold. Same for Post and 21P's debut album.

Billie Eilish has a few certified tracks that didn't even crack top 75.

But yeah longevity matters almost as much as peak position.

Jun 13, 2019 20:08:41 GMT -5 Xander said:

Nicki Minaj is dropping a new song next week. I wonder if it’ll do well on the charts, considering her past singles did terribly.

Unless it's an absolute banger, no. The buzz, even compared to "Chun Li", is very muted.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2019/06/14

1(=) Jonas Brothers - Sucker 143.38(+0.32)
2(+1) Khalid - Talk 136.01(+2.05)
3(-1) Lil Nas X - Old Town Road (feat. Billy Ray Cyrus) [Remix] 135.08(-0.08)
4(=) Sam Smith & Normani - Dancing with a Stranger 122.53(-0.97)
5(+1) Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber - I Don't Care 110.94(+1.84)
6(-1) Post Malone - Wow. 109.76(+0.05)
7(=) Ava Max - Sweet but Psycho 98.20(-1.43)
8(=) Taylor Swift - ME! (feat. Brendon Urie of Panic! At The Disco) 96.24(-2.36)
9(+1) Shawn Mendes - If I Can't Have You 78.49(+1.60)
10(-1) Halsey - Without Me 76.84(-1.28)

12(+1) Panic! At the Disco - Hey Look Ma, I Made It 70.93(+1.39)

14(=) Billie Eilish - bad guy 63.49(+1.22)

18(+4) Brett Eldredge - Love Someone 54.40(+1.27)

32(+3) Katy Perry - Never Really Over 43.18(+0.95)

36(+1) Eric Church - Some of It 42.04(+1.01)

41(=) DaBaby - Suge 40.54(+1.30)

42(+2)  Maren Morris - GIRL 39.83(+1.14)

83(+4) Lizzo - Truth Hurts 23.75(+0.92)

[jodakyellow]

What separates Lil Nas X from other past artists riding the wave of their first hit is that he's made an effort to build a brand around himself and give fans an idea of who he is. His sense of humor on social media has made him a "star" despite only having one commercially-available song.

He's not worried about becoming a one-hit wonder? I'm not worried about him either.

[badrobot]

^Looks like OTR will be yet another 10+ week #1 without topping the airplay chart. Same happened to God's Plan and In My Feelings (both #3 airplay peaks I think).

Any other 10+ week #1s miss the airplay #1?

[badrobot]

Also, regarding one-hit wonder discussions, this was an interesting article from a few years ago:

www.villagevoice.com/2012/09/10/100-single-three-rules-to-define-the-term-one-hit-wonder-in-2012/

They propose 3 rules:

OHW RULE 1: A second hit that makes the Top 10 of Billboard‘s Hot 100 instantly removes an artist from one-hit wonder status.
OHW RULE 2: An act that scores a second hit that makes the Top 40 on the Hot 100 shall not be considered a OHW, unless that second hit is scored within six months of the first hit and is never followed by another Top 40 hit.
OHW RULE 3: Any act that scores at least three Top 10 or platinum albums is removed from OHW consideration entirely.

You can read through the article for more context. Rule 1 is obvious. Rule 2 is intended to eliminate any follow-up "hits" that charted primarily due to a honeymoon/coattails period for the first single. Rule 3 is intended to cover artists (mostly rock/alternative) who have established careers despite minimal "singles" success.

If I were to propose any alteration to the rules, it would be to find some consideration for "features" where an artist's contribution was minimal.

And before anyone chimes in with a semantics argument, I'm not saying I endorse these rules, but I feel like they get a bit closer to the cultural connotation of one-hit wonder. (So, Gary, no need to draft a message with 6 rhetorical questions! I say that with affection, btw.)

[kcdawg13]

Sunflower's longevity is insane

[lazer]

I wonder what happened to that Ava Max fan who was frequently posting here before SBP reaches the top ten.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

I didn’t realize Billboard had ownership over how “one hit wonder” gets used.

[Gary]

Billboard themselves have produced lists before with definitions different than the “rules” in this thread

It has always come down to “one hit wonder” is defined by whomever wants to define it.

The obvious definition; a one hit wonder is an artist with only one hit leaves open to interpretation about every word in the phrase: one hit wonder

Notably: what is a hit?
Also the word “one” - what defines hit two?

Billboard doesn’t own the definition. No one does

Who owns the definition changes with whomever wants to talk about it

This will continue to create nice little discussions every time it comes
Up

[tanooki]

The term "one hit wonder" only applies to Crazy Town. You can't dispute their one hit wonder status at all.

[Gary]

There are lots of 'one hit wonders' that are obvious due to passage of time

The more time you let pass when evaluating an artists catalog, the easier it gets

[dynamac]

Macklemore rose to fame with a novelty song and he stretched a pretty good career out of it so anything’s possible

[Naos]

Jun 14, 2019 15:48:25 GMT -5 dynamac said:

Macklemore rose to fame with a novelty song and he stretched a pretty good career out of it so anything’s possible

Sure, but it's not his entire discography, and the song could be considered social commentary, and not just novelty for the sake of novelty. He also ended with a novelty single "Downtown" and never got a hit after to my knowledge.

[wjr15]

Jun 14, 2019 16:05:04 GMT -5 Naos said:

Jun 14, 2019 15:48:25 GMT -5 dynamac said:

Macklemore rose to fame with a novelty song and he stretched a pretty good career out of it so anything’s possible

Sure, but it's not his entire discography, and the song could be considered social commentary, and not just novelty for the sake of novelty. He also ended with a novelty single "Downtown" and never got a hit after to my knowledge.

Good Old Days with Kesha?

[garrettlen]

Jun 14, 2019 12:10:04 GMT -5 tanooki said:

The term "one hit wonder" only applies to Crazy Town. You can't dispute their one hit wonder status at all.

You also can't dispute the one hit wonder status of The Elegants with "Little Star", or Zager and Evans with "In the Year 2525", to name only 2 other examples from Hot 100 history.

So no, it doesn't just apply to Crazy Town.

[Naos]

Jun 14, 2019 17:12:44 GMT -5 wjr15 said:

Jun 14, 2019 16:05:04 GMT -5 Naos said:

Sure, but it's not his entire discography, and the song could be considered social commentary, and not just novelty for the sake of novelty. He also ended with a novelty single "Downtown" and never got a hit after to my knowledge.

Good Old Days with Kesha?

Barely Top 50, only 20 weeks, didn't make the year-end list... eh, a very minor hit in my book.

[tanooki]

Jun 14, 2019 17:17:21 GMT -5 garrettlen said:

Jun 14, 2019 12:10:04 GMT -5 tanooki said:

The term "one hit wonder" only applies to Crazy Town. You can't dispute their one hit wonder status at all.

You also can't dispute the one hit wonder status of The Elegants with "Little Star", or Zager and Evans with "In the Year 2525", to name only 2 other examples from Hot 100 history.

So no, it doesn't just apply to Crazy Town.

True, I was being more tongue and cheek, obviously theres artists who's one hit wonder status cant be disputed. Gotye comes to mind as well

[imbondz]

Come On Eileen by Dexi’s Midnight Runners is a OHW.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Jun 14, 2019 11:34:18 GMT -5 lazer said:

I wonder what happened to that Ava Max fan who was frequently posting here before SBP reaches the top ten.

The last time I saw a post from him/her is that he/she will stop spamming once Sweet But Psycho enters Top 10, and the irony is A.V.A M.A.X did stop spamming the week Ava Max got the Top 10. Its last post is May 28, so likely he/she is given 2 weeks of suspension I guess because of him/her openly admits spamming.

[Abbaschand]

Jun 14, 2019 20:35:17 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Jun 14, 2019 11:34:18 GMT -5 lazer said:

I wonder what happened to that Ava Max fan who was frequently posting here before SBP reaches the top ten.

The last time I saw a post from him/her is that he/she will stop spamming once Sweet But Psycho enters Top 10, and the irony is A.V.A M.A.X did stop spamming the week Ava Max got the Top 10. Its last post is May 28, so likely he/she is given 2 weeks of suspension I guess because of him/her openly admits spamming.

But they said, they'll stop "spamming", not stop "posting entirely". I think they made their account solely for the purpose of getting SBP to Top 10. Once it gets top 10, their work is done.