Billboard Hot 100: 08/24/2019

[Enigma.]

Aug 15, 2019 1:47:38 GMT -5 davidjl123 said:

Aug 15, 2019 1:23:13 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

What is Circles? It's been mentioned so many times in these threads.

Upcoming Post Malone single due in September, which was teased by him and performed live

And it's with Tame Impala? Cool!

[𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤]

www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVsqg2rNymc

Apparently his third LP drops in September!

[thegreatdivine]

Aug 15, 2019 2:22:41 GMT -5 𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤 said:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVsqg2rNymc

Apparently his third LP drops in September!

Yeah, he said this about a week ago. Circles is produced by Kevin Parker who is the frontman of Tame Impala. I doubt he'll actually feature on the single.

[thegreatdivine]

Aug 14, 2019 20:53:45 GMT -5 hunterquigley said:

Does anyone know why “No Guidance” shot up the radio charts and now on kworb it looks like it has just stalled recently??

It got most of it's airplay from Rhythmic and Urban radio and it's now peaked on both formats. It was sent to Pop radio, but I doubt they gave it much of a chance. Now that it's peaked, it'll keep dropping in audience impressions.

[iHype.]

I work with private events (birthday parties, family reunions, weddings, graduations, baby showers, work meetings, etc) and yeah... I'm still hearing Old Town Road at every event.

It's truly the one song I've seen with every demographic. I work with parties of every age group, race, social class, etc.

I was laughing to myself when a little girl was singing "Lean all in my bladder" to her mother at a Barmitzvah the other week.

[renaboss]

I'm back in Portugal and I've yet to hear "Old Town Road" being mentioned by anyone or played on the radio. Heard "ME!" today, that was fun. Post Malone is still very relevant here, he just performed last week. "Señorita" also plays regularly, but I've yet to hear Billie Eilish or Lizzo.

[Enigma.]

OTR was a decent hit everywhere but in most European countries the impact was like 5% of North America. It reached #5 here.

[Enigma.]

Also just realised that the last chart week of August has several times been the final week of strong #1's:

I'll Be Missing You
The Boy Is Mine
Genie in a Bottle
Crazy in Love
Party Rock Anthem
Rude
Cheap Thrills (although this wasn't super *strong* #1 IIRC)


So I'm not saying OTR will be #1 this week too but if it is, it's going to be its last week which will fit that strong but irregular pattern.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Aug 14, 2019 18:55:32 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

Aug 14, 2019 15:13:38 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Lizzo needs to move to number one now to (a) get the number one she deserves because she’s easily becoming the ‘it’ girl of the season, and (b) to make me right in my prediction from a month or so ago.

I predicted that five months ago 

Don’t you predict a bunch of stuff every other day? How’s your accuracy? I make 3 predictions a year.

[Deleted]

20 weeks is a lock. 21 is still possible but not guaranteed yet. And that should be it. By 22nd week Senorita or a new song will be ahead of it.

I will not be surprised if the record is broken soon again or a song spending 18-22 weeks at #1 becomes more commonplace starting next decade.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2019/08/15

1(=) Khalid - Talk 163.72(-1.33)

2(=) Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber - I Don't Care 145.78(-0.66)

3(=) Billie Eilish - bad guy 121.40(-0.41)

4(=) Shawn Mendes - If I Can't Have You 120.40(+0.79)
5(=) Lizzo - Truth Hurts 117.31(+0.54)
6(+1) Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Señorita 116.43 (+0.93)

7(-1) Jonas Brothers - Sucker 115.87(-0.29)

8(=) Panic! At the Disco - Hey Look Ma, I Made It 91.42(-1.16)
9(=) Sam Smith & Normani - Dancing with a Stranger 79.82(+0.17)
10(=) Chris Brown - No Guidance (feat. Drake) 71.16(+1.41)

15(=) Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 63.52(+0.94)

16(=) Dan + Shay - All To Myself 58.29(+1.27)

21(=) Chris Young - Raised on Country 51.56(+0.91)

22(+1) Drake - Money In The Grave (feat. Rick Ross) 51.21(+0.74)

34(+3) SHAED - Trampoline 39.19(+0.86)

37(+2) Ariana Grande & Social House - Boyfriend 37.37(+1.66)

48(+1) Polo G - Pop Out (feat. Lil Tjay) 33.02(+0.75)

54(+2) Sam Smith - How Do You Sleep? 29.96(+0.68)

-(-) Megan Thee Stallion - Hot Girl Summer (feat. Nicki Minaj & Ty Dolla $ign) 17.18(+2.54)

[jebsib]

Historically, music eras go in pattern-waves where conditions remain stagnant for a fixed period of time.
For example, no one thought 13 weeks at #1 was possible back in 1991 but a variety of tech & promotional changes flipped that paradigm, and we started getting songs lasting longer for the next 4 years, culminating in 16 weeks in 1996.
Then the waters receded and we got long stretches with shorter #1s (1998, 2000, 2006 stand out, among other years)
So it's not unreasonable to believe we're in a period where the GP is used to longer #1s governing the culture.

If Meant to Be or Despacito can rule their respective charts for roughly a year, it's quite possible the Hot 100 could - under the right conditions - have a song be #1 for at least 30 weeks, right?

[thegreatdivine]

Aug 15, 2019 8:24:10 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2019/08/15

1(=) Khalid - Talk 163.72(-1.33)

2(=) Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber - I Don't Care 145.78(-0.66)

3(=) Billie Eilish - bad guy 121.40(-0.41)

4(=) Shawn Mendes - If I Can't Have You 120.40(+0.79)
5(=) Lizzo - Truth Hurts 117.31(+0.54)
6(+1) Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Señorita 116.43 (+0.93)

7(-1) Jonas Brothers - Sucker 115.87(-0.29)

8(=) Panic! At the Disco - Hey Look Ma, I Made It 91.42(-1.16)
9(=) Sam Smith & Normani - Dancing with a Stranger 79.82(+0.17)
10(=) Chris Brown - No Guidance (feat. Drake) 71.16(+1.41)

15(=) Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 63.52(+0.94)

16(=) Dan + Shay - All To Myself 58.29(+1.27)

21(=) Chris Young - Raised on Country 51.56(+0.91)

22(+1) Drake - Money In The Grave (feat. Rick Ross) 51.21(+0.74)

34(+3) SHAED - Trampoline 39.19(+0.86)

37(+2) Ariana Grande & Social House - Boyfriend 37.37(+1.66)

48(+1) Polo G - Pop Out (feat. Lil Tjay) 33.02(+0.75)

54(+2) Sam Smith - How Do You Sleep? 29.96(+0.68)

-(-) Megan Thee Stallion - Hot Girl Summer (feat. Nicki Minaj & Ty Dolla $ign) 17.18(+2.54)

 at No Guidance a great radio update right after I said it had peaked and would start falling.

[moonlite]

Kworb sales predictions

Old Town Road 25k
The Git Up 24k
Truth Hurts 23k
Hot Girl Summer 23k
Señorita 22k
Someone You Loved 18k
Bad Guy 17k
Goodbyes 12k
Boyfriend 5k

[HolidayGuy]

Any ideas what is the current low for a No. 1 on the Digital Songs chart? Has there been a week below 30,000?

[jenglisbe]

Aug 15, 2019 9:11:40 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Any ideas what is the current low for a No. 1 on the Digital Songs chart? Has there been a week below 30,000?

I think “Shallow” was #1 with a total under 30k.

[lazer]

Having songs at #1 for 20+ weeks is kinda boring.

[moonlite]

Aug 15, 2019 9:11:40 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Any ideas what is the current low for a No. 1 on the Digital Songs chart? Has there been a week below 30,000?

Shallow had a week this year in April at #1 with 28k. Besides that, Without Me and Fake Love by BTS both had weeks at #1 last year with 29k

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Aug 15, 2019 8:51:14 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

 at No Guidance a great radio update right after I said it had peaked and would start falling.

The radio updates had been a bit erratic until yesterday since the large ajustment in radio audiences that happened recently. That said, as one who actually looks at the estimates day-to-day while most daily song kind of follow a pattern there a few weird daily updates. For example, I listed All to Myself today but hadn't done so in a while since it hasn't been getting large updates recently. That, even though, it appears it's still only on Country radio, for now.

[thegreatdivine]

Aug 15, 2019 9:20:11 GMT -5 lazer said:

Having songs at #1 for 20+ weeks is kinda boring.

You think? I'm just excited for when Drake stays at #1 for 35 cumulative weeks next year ^__^

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Aug 15, 2019 9:54:05 GMT -5 moonlite said:

Shallow had a week this year in April at #1 with 28k. Besides that, Without Me and Fake Love by BTS both had weeks at #1 last year with 29k

Yeah. It's only a matter of time until a new low is set. I'm not 100% sure, but if Old Town Road didn't exist, it could have been reset by now.

[tanooki]

Just wait until songs are in the top 10 for 40+ weeks

[Enigma.]

I don't think the longevity goes that far, I mean where it would go from here? Streaming is already in full effect and we haven't got top ten hits that have lasted 35 weeks yet.

[Gary]

But they are hitting 30+ with regularity

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Nothing should be discounted at this point. Records that had not been surpassed in a while have already been broken and tied and/or broken once more. It might take a while for some things to happen, but it could just be a matter of time.

[HolidayGuy]

^Indeed. Soon, Drake's going to have the most top 10s, for instance.

And thanks for the sales responses. The 8/24 chart could see a new low, then, for No. 1 on Digital Songs.

[kierz7]

#FunFacts.

Rihanna and Drake will end the Decade with the most number one singles and the most number one albums respectively, with 9 each.

• Rihanna: 9 Hot 100 #1 Singles.

She ties the Bee Gees (1970’s) & Michael Jackson (1980’s) for the third most Hot 100 number ones scored in a single decade. Only The Beatles and Mariah Carey have more with 18 & 14 each.

• Drake #9 BB200 #1 Albums.

He ties Jay-Z (2000’s) for the second most number one albums scored in a single decade. Overall, The Beatles scored the most with 13 achieved in the 1960’s.

*******

P.S: Rihanna could EASILY score her 10th number one single this decade with her next lead single. If she does, she’ll tie The Beatles and Mariah Carey as the only acts to score 10 or more number ones in a single decade.

LEGENDS! 🙏🏿 🙏🏿 🙏🏿

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Aug 15, 2019 10:51:32 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

^Indeed. Soon, Drake's going to have the most top 10s, for instance.

And thanks for the sales responses. The 8/24 chart could see a new low, then, for No. 1 on Digital Songs.

If kworb's estimates for the week were correct, Old Town Road would have it. For the prior week, kworb estimated around 30k for OTR and the Chart Beat article had 34k for it.

[tommy1860]

Aug 15, 2019 11:13:48 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

P.S: Rihanna could EASILY score her 10th number one single this decade with her next lead single. If she does, she’ll tie The Beatles and Mariah Carey as the only acts to score 10 or more number ones in a single decade.

LEGENDS! 🙏🏿 🙏🏿 🙏🏿

And the Supremes as well. They scored 12 number ones in the 60s.

[dajross6]

Aug 15, 2019 3:16:41 GMT -5 iHype. said:

I work with private events (birthday parties, family reunions, weddings, graduations, baby showers, work meetings, etc) and yeah... I'm still hearing Old Town Road at every event.

It's truly the one song I've seen with every demographic. I work with parties of every age group, race, social class, etc.

I was laughing to myself when a little girl was singing "Lean all in my bladder" to her mother at a Barmitzvah the other week.

I was tailgating at a baseball game last weekend and heard the song multiple times by everyone with a speaker, including people in their 40s, 50s, and 60s. The song is beyond huge, and has now gone into the "Older adults know about it territory" where people that don't listen to Pop music like it and are into it (20 weeks late). I'm sure it's dead to those who listen to a lot of Pop radio and are "internet aware", but it definitely has longevity in the social fabric of America. Not saying these new demographics will move the needle to produce streaming numbers or YouTube UGC to keep it on top, but it's easy to see this song is getting a 2nd wind with more fringe demos.

I obviously can't speak to popularity in other countries, but those thinking the song is dead here (not the poster I replied to, but others) is 100% incorrect.