Billboard Hot 100: 10/19/19

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Oct 9, 2019 22:30:23 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Oct 9, 2019 22:23:36 GMT -5 Az Paynter said:

Did you even read the rest of the post or did you just zero in on that last sentence?

He's saying that streaming is the culprit for slower radio but gives zero evidence which is what I was pointing out

Radio is slower because it’s not the main source for new music. My understanding is that people listen to radio in shorter time frames than they used to so in order to be a listener’s station of choice for that brief period, they have to always be playing a song they’re likely going to know. That leaves little room for lesser known songs. That’s why radio isn’t going to break a new song by an unknown artist. If radio is playing a new song in significant numbers, it’s a new single by a big-name or a song that has already caught on through other mediums, such as streaming.

[iHype.]

Oct 9, 2019 22:37:24 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Oct 9, 2019 22:30:23 GMT -5 tanooki said:

He's saying that streaming is the culprit for slower radio but gives zero evidence which is what I was pointing out

Radio is slower because it’s not the main source for new music. My understanding is that people listen to radio in shorter time frames than they used to so in order to be a listener’s station of choice for that brief period, they have to always be playing a song they’re likely going to know. That leaves little room for lesser known songs. That’s why radio isn’t going to break a new song by an unknown artist. If radio is playing a new song in significant numbers, it’s a new single by a big-name or a song that has already caught on through other mediums, such as streaming.

I think this is a good analysis. That also probably explains why statistically, radio actually does overplay songs much more now. It's not just a mental feeling 'that you hear songs overplayed way more than back then'.


Versus 20 years ago this week


Personally, it has an opposite effect on me. Hearing the same 5 popular hits played over does not make me want to listen to stations. I listen to AC & Urban AC increasingly / listen to Spotify in the car more because current radio is literally just overplaying the same songs. 

[Deleted]

I do think it is worth pointing out that 'radio is slow' is clearly a CHR/HAC gripe. Urban and rhythmic actually move very fast and many of the biggest hits on those formats either get purged or are down in the 30s if they do reach the recurrent 20th week. There's not much of a point in examining the movement patterns on other radio formats bc they have only a small or no effect on Hot 100 success for different reasons (not enough AI, catering to a niche audience that doesn't stream or purchase music, playing mostly recurrents and golds).

With that said, all Hot 100 components contribute to slower charts: average music listeners tend to hold on to favorite songs for a long while; pop radio PDs are followers who wait on streaming and callout to determine their next power rotation picks (so while they're waiting, they are holding on to whatever is already in power rotation for much longer); and HAC PDs seem to increasingly be looking to CHR for cues on what to play.

[Enigma.]

Wasn't Old Town Road just number one for 19 weeks because it did so well in streaming for so long, not because of radio?

[Deleted]

Oct 10, 2019 0:06:27 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Wasn't Old Town Road just number one for 19 weeks because it did so well in streaming for so long, not because of radio?

Yeah, I believe it wasn't until week 15 (maybe week 14?) that OTR even needed the additional airplay points to hold on to #1.

[85la]

Oct 9, 2019 17:51:17 GMT -5 ddlz said:

Unless some miracle happens, two of the worst, most screechiest, unbearable songs of the year, Someone You Loved and Circles, are gonna be competing for #1 in a few weeks.

You keep using this word "screechy," but you literally have no idea what you're saying, because neither of the songs you mentioned are screechy.

[strongerq]

another one

[violentdreams]

Is she gonna keep dropping new singles every few weeks until something sticks? That's a terrible strategy if so. She needs to pick a song to push and stand by it.

[violentdreams]

Oct 10, 2019 6:54:34 GMT -5 @benson said:

Oct 10, 2019 6:10:32 GMT -5 violentdreams said:

Is she gonna keep dropping new singles every few weeks until something sticks? That's a terrible strategy if so. She needs to pick a song to push and stand by it.

If you think about it from the label's perspective, they get to release some tracks without spending much, to see what, if anything is a slam dunk.  Why would they invest everything into one song before testing the waters first?  It's a perk of the streaming era.

I think every situation is different, as are the reasons for each.  But I think for her, it makes sense to do what they are doing.  Especially if they don't have a surefire smash lead single.  And even if they do, it's not a terrible thing to throw some tracks out there, rack up some chart entries, get the buzz, and then hit us with the big one.

I should add that Camila isn't in someone like Ariana or Taylor's league, yet, as far as surefire smashes out-of-the-box.  She's far better off than she was when she released Crying in the Club, but still not able to drop something on her own and have it explode on arrival. So this is another reason not to put all their eggs in one basket with her yet.

If that's their strategy, I'd say they're better off dropping an EP and seeing what sticks around. Continuously dropping singles is only gonna make the hype lower and lower, thus lessening the impact each time.

[Lukas]

Oct 9, 2019 22:19:57 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Oct 9, 2019 21:55:16 GMT -5 Lukas said:

Streaming is technically the reason why the charts are slower.

While technically the streaming charts themselves are quite fast pacing, streaming is the reason why radio has to play proven hits such as Shape of You and Without Me more and lesser known songs less (they have to compete with streaming services).

So while radio is technically the metric getting slower, streaming is the reason why they are, in fact, getting slower.

So you can't say "OMG radio is so slow! It must be the cause of these slow charts!" You have to find out why.

"You have to find out why" but you didn't really give a reason... 

But I did.

[tallen2001]

Thing is though is that some songs with massive longevity wouldn't last as long as they do without radio. Streaming numbers were really low for Without Me, High Hopes, and Happier later in their runs. People weren't choosing to listen to them compared to Better Now, Sunflower, Old Town Road, and bad guy which all either pulled in or are still pulling in good streaming numbers late in their runs.

[annoymous1]

Liar is obviously going to be a hit from her EP and Camila should be promoting it more,instead of dropping songs back to back that is my two cents.

[Lukas]

Oct 10, 2019 7:39:31 GMT -5 tallen2001 said:

Thing is though is that some songs with massive longevity wouldn't last as long as they do without radio. Streaming numbers were really low for Without Me, High Hopes, and Happier later in their runs. People weren't choosing to listen to them compared to Better Now, Sunflower, Old Town Road, and bad guy which all either pulled in or are still pulling in good streaming numbers late in their runs.

You can say the same thing for streaming.

[tallen2001]

Oct 10, 2019 8:02:22 GMT -5 Lukas said:

Oct 10, 2019 7:39:31 GMT -5 tallen2001 said:

Thing is though is that some songs with massive longevity wouldn't last as long as they do without radio. Streaming numbers were really low for Without Me, High Hopes, and Happier later in their runs. People weren't choosing to listen to them compared to Better Now, Sunflower, Old Town Road, and bad guy which all either pulled in or are still pulling in good streaming numbers late in their runs.

You can say the same thing for streaming.

People choose songs to stream though. People don't get to choose what the radio plays.

[violentdreams]

I wonder how far All the Good Girls Go to Hell will go on radio. It's one of my favorite songs from her album, so I hope it can have a cute chart run.

[Lukas]

Oct 10, 2019 8:11:54 GMT -5 tallen2001 said:

Oct 10, 2019 8:02:22 GMT -5 Lukas said:

You can say the same thing for streaming.

People choose songs to stream though. People don't get to choose what the radio plays.

Oct 9, 2019 21:21:48 GMT -5 Choco said:

You guys do know that radio does research to know what listeners enjoy so they can play something most people like instead of songs that will make people turn the station? It's not a couple guys on a station deciding what to play so that it can get 30 weeks on the chart annoy a couple guys on Pulse Music Board.

And the #1 song on radio still gets at least 90M listens per week. That's comparable to the #1 sobg on streaming.y

"Without Me" is the most played song on radio this year because some people enjoyed listening to it so much. Further proof of that? Her next release "Nightmare" died the minute audience feedback and callouts came back extremely negative.

Yes, people choose what the radio plays. Please, stop blaming radio for everything, thanks!

[dann]

The streaming just showed what always existed, people cling to specific music for a long time, but I prefer this kind of longevity to what radio provides, in streming are people listening to their songs when they want and as often as they want.

[thegreatdivine]

Lukas it's really not as clear cut as you're making it out to be. I don't decide what gets played on my radio station. I just turn it on and whatever I hear is what I hear. Who are the people who are telling these radio formats what songs to keep playing? If I'm an Ed Sheeran fan, in any survey of whether or not an Ed Sheeran song should keep being played, I'll always select yes. It's not a mistake that there's a select group of artists who dominate pop radio regardless of what kind of record they make. It's not a mistake that it's the same 5-10 artists topping radio everytime.

It's entirely different with streaming. Even if you want to argue that playlist placements largely help streams. All playlists do is give your song more visibility. People still have to click on them and play them. Also, Apple Music doesn't make use of playlist placements the same way Spotify does.

A new song by Maroon 5 now will be a radio smash whether I like it or not. They have deals in place. They're liked by several radio formats. That's not the choice of the listeners.

Also, just last year, Rolling Stone ran several articles that confirmed that there's still favoritism in radio formats on which songs and which artists get played over others. It's still a thing.

[thegreatdivine]

This is a really great idea. Will give new artists an in-depth look on how they're growing as touring forces and which cities/states to focus more attention on and it'll also help more established touring acts.

[Kris]

Don't callout scores kind of decide what radio plays nowadays?

Example Never Really Over

[thegreatdivine]

Oct 10, 2019 9:44:30 GMT -5 Kris said:

Don't callout scores kind of decide what radio plays nowadays?

Example Never Really Over

Yes, but even that system is severely flawed.

[ddlz]

[shaz196]

All I want is for Apple Music to publish their daily and weekly numbers. Is that too much to ask for?

[iggyamo]

Oct 10, 2019 1:26:02 GMT -5 85la said:

Oct 9, 2019 17:51:17 GMT -5 ddlz said:

Unless some miracle happens, two of the worst, most screechiest, unbearable songs of the year, Someone You Loved and Circles, are gonna be competing for #1 in a few weeks.

You keep using this word "screechy," but you literally have no idea what you're saying, because neither of the songs you mentioned are screechy.

Someone You Loved is screechy to me, I don’t hate the song at all, but near the end when he goes all in, I would definitely consider that screechy. Although Circles is quite literally the opposite of screechy

[thegreatdivine]

Oct 10, 2019 9:55:11 GMT -5 shaz196 said:

All I want is for Apple Music to publish their daily and weekly numbers. Is that too much to ask for?

Hopefully, they get to that point. I think people easily forget that Spotify has been up and running since 2006. 9 whole years before Apple Music was ever a thing.

Apple Music is working on a lot of things. They rolled out their top 1500 song and album live chart not too long ago. They've started doing year-end lists now. They're revealing more and more things and adding more features to their apps and streaming platform as the years go by. Hopefully, they start publishing daily and weekly streaming figures like Spotify does.

[violentdreams]

If AM starts publishing its numbers, it'll be super easy to do album projections without needing insider sources like HDD. It's already easy to estimate where an album will end up on Spotify with the first day numbers and utilizing past trends, AM is the only thing that's hard to gauge because one can only guestimate what songs are doing on there.

[spicymapping]

Predictions! New peaks in bold.

SPOILER: Click to show

1. HIGHEST IN THE ROOM (NEW)
2. Truth Hurts (-1)
3. Señorita (-1)
4. 10,000 Hours (NEW)
5. Someone You Loved (-2)
6. Circles (+1)
7. Ran$om (-3)
8. Panini (=)
9. No Guidance (-4)
10. Bad Guy (-4)
11. Goodbyes (-2)
12. Bandit (NEW)
13. Beautiful People (+1)
14. Old Town Road (-4)
15. I Don’t Care (-4)
16. Talk (-4)
17. Sunflower (-2)
18. Sucker (-2)
19. On Chill (+4)
20. Only Human (+2)
21. Money In The Grave (-4)
22. Suge (-2)
23. Trampoline (-5)
24. Memories (+5)
25. Good As Hell (+5)
26. How Do You Sleep? (-2)
27. Playing Games (+48)
28. INTRO (-15)
29. Baby (-3)
30. 223’s (+4)
31. Hot Girl Summer (-6)
32. One Thing Right (+6)
33. VIBEZ (-12)
34. BOP (-15)
35. Hot (+2)
36. Dancing With a Stranger (-5)
37. You Need To Calm Down (-10)
38. Ballin’ (+15)
39. Prayed For You (+7)
40. Wow. (-5)
41. My Type (-9)
42. Camelot (=)
43. Lover (+2)
44. Cash s**t (=)
45. The Git Up (-6)
46. Even Though I’m Leaving (+12)
47. Heat (+10)
48. Time (+6)
49. Boyfriend (-13)
50. Graveyard (+10)
51. Nice To Meet Ya (NEW)
52. Take What You Want (-12)
53. One Man Band (+9)
54. Come Thru (NEW)
55. TOES (-27)
56. Love You Too Late (+9)
57. The London (-7)
58. Liar (+3)
59. Good Vibes (+7)
60. I Don’t Know About You (-12)
61. Motivation (+6)
62. Enemies (-10)
63. I’ll Kill You (NEW)
64. Stretch You Out (NEW)
65. The Bones (RE)
66. Living (-7)
67. Hot Girl Bummer (+9)
68. China (+2)
69. Lalala (+4)
70. What Happens In a Small Town (+15)
71. Every Little Thing (+6)
72. Baby Sitter (+7)
73. Tip of My Tongue (+10)
74. Don’t Call Me Angel (-3)
75. Writing On The Wall (-19)
76. Body (NEW)
77. Heartache Medication (+7)
78. Southbound (-14)
79. F.N (+11)
80. Right Back (+8)
81. Saint-Tropez (-13)
82. Callaita (=)
83. iPHONE (-40)
84. Remember You Young (+7)
85. Otro Trago (-7)
86. Drunk Dialing…. LODT (NEW)
87. Higher Love (+8)
88. Wish Wish (+6)
89. Hollywood’s Bleeding (-15)
90. Cry For Me (NEW)
91. Over It (NEW)
92. What If I Never Get Over You (+7)
93. Leave Em Alone (NEW)
94. Adicto (+4)
95. Heartless (RE)
96. RAW s**t (-45)
97. OFF THE RIP (-50)
98. Potential (NEW)
99. Just Might (NEW)
100. Die For Me (-20)

[Mike Schwartz]

Oct 9, 2019 23:03:17 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Oct 9, 2019 22:37:24 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Radio is slower because it’s not the main source for new music. My understanding is that people listen to radio in shorter time frames than they used to so in order to be a listener’s station of choice for that brief period, they have to always be playing a song they’re likely going to know. That leaves little room for lesser known songs. That’s why radio isn’t going to break a new song by an unknown artist. If radio is playing a new song in significant numbers, it’s a new single by a big-name or a song that has already caught on through other mediums, such as streaming.

I think this is a good analysis. That also probably explains why statistically, radio actually does overplay songs much more now. It's not just a mental feeling 'that you hear songs overplayed way more than back then'.


Versus 20 years ago this week


Personally, it has an opposite effect on me. Hearing the same 5 popular hits played over does not make me want to listen to stations. I listen to AC & Urban AC increasingly / listen to Spotify in the car more because current radio is literally just overplaying the same songs. 

I know that this is really old school, (but I am); in the 1960s, legendary NYC CHR station WABC used to make the #1 song, the second song played each hour after the news and at the bottom of the hour they would rotate the #2 and #3 songs on alternate hours. That would give the top hit roughly 168 plays per week and roughly 84 for the second and third songs per week. I say roughly because of the weekday public service programming and special Sunday programming did reduce those numbers somewhat but you get the idea. Then as now, if most radio listening is done in the car and the average listener is just with your station long enough to pick up the bread and milk or visit the dry cleaners for 20 minutes, you want to increase the likelihood that you can hit them with their favorite songs during that drive.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2019/10/10

1(=) Lizzo - Truth Hurts 157.77(-0.32)
2(=) Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Señorita 154.26(-0.65)
3(=) Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 132.69(+0.95)
4(=) Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber - I Don't Care 119.19(-1.09)
5(=) Khalid - Talk 98.89(-1.48)
6(=) Jonas Brothers - Sucker 96.98(-0.79)
7(=) Chris Brown - No Guidance (feat. Drake) 89.65(+0.50)
8(=) Post Malone - Goodbyes (feat. Young Thug) 80.68(-0.31)
9(=) Billie Eilish - bad guy 79.38(-0.86)
10(=) Ed Sheeran - Beautiful People (feat. Khalid) 78.82(+0.65)

12(+1) Post Malone - Circles 71.90(+2.26)

15(=) Matt Stell - Prayed for You 60.71(+1.54)

27(=) Lil Tecca - Ransom 45.35(+1.04)

32(+2) Maroon 5 - Memories 41.25(+1.40)

43(+5) Lizzo - Good as Hell 34.97(+1.05)

50(+4) Luke Combs - Even Though I'm Leaving 33.39(+0.98)

69(+7) Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber - 10,000 Hours 25.54(+3.20)

-(-)Niall Horan - Nice to Meet Ya 16.80(+1.62)

-(-) Travis Scott - HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 3.71(+0.78)

[kacpi]

The radio estimates for Travis... No comment