Billboard Hot 100: 11/23/2019

[FindingC7osure]

Nov 13, 2019 16:07:06 GMT -5 FindingC7osure said:

11/23/19 Early Predictions:

	Song	Points
1.	Circles (+1)	28,300
2.	Someone You Loved (-1)	28,100
3.	Señorita (=)	22,800
4.	Good As Hell (+3)	22,600
5.	No Guidance (+2)	21,900
6.	Truth Hurts (-2)	21,600
7.	Memories (+2)	20,300
8.	10,000 Hours (+2)	20,000
9.	Lose You to Love Me (-4)	19,200
10.	Panini (-2)	18,500
11.	Beautiful People (+4)	18,300
12.	HIGHEST IN THE ROOM (+2)	17,900
13.	Trampoline (+3)	17,600
14.	Hot (-3)	17,400
15.	Ran$om (-2)	17,200

Others:

• 16. Bad Guy (-4) - 17,100
• ROXANNE - 16,000
• Only Human - 15,700

11/23/19 Final Predictions:

	Song	Points
1.	Someone You Loved (=)	29,100
2.	Circles (=)	28,500
3.	Señorita (=)	22,500
4.	Good As Hell (+2)	22,400
5.	Truth Hurts (-1)	21,100
6.	No Guidance (+1)	21,000
7.	Memories (+2)	20,700
8.	10,000 Hours (+2)	19,900
9.	Lose You to Love Me (-4)	19,000
10.	Panini (-2)	17,900
11.	Beautiful People (+4)	17,600
12.	HIGHEST IN THE ROOM (+2)	17,600
13.	Hot (-2)	17,500
14.	ROXANNE (+20)	17,400
15.	Trampoline (+1)	17,300

Others:

• Ran$om - 17,000
• bad guy - 17,000
• Only Human - 15,600

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 from 60, 55, 50, 45, and 40 years ago:

November 16, 1959 (For the week ending November 21)

01 02 Mr. Blue - The Fleetwoods (1st and only week at #1)
02 01 Mack The Knife - Bobby Darin
03 04 Don't You Know - Della Reese
04 03 Put Your Head On My Shoulder - Paul Anka
05 10 Heartaches By The Number - Guy Mitchell
06 05 Lonely Street - Andy Williams
07 06 Teen Beat - Sandy Nelson
08 07 Deck Of Cards - Wink Martindale
09 12 So Many Ways - Brook Benton
10 08 Primrose Lane - Jerry Wallace w/The Jewels


November 21, 1964

01 01 Baby Love - The Supremes (4th and final week at #1)
02 02 The Leader Of The Pack - The Shangri-Las
03 04 Come a Little Bit Closer - Jay & The Americans
04 03 Last Kiss - Frank J. Wilson
05 09 She's Not There - The Zombies
06 10 Ringo - Lorne Greene
07 05 Have I The Right - The Honeycombs
08 13 You Really Got Me - The Kinks
09 06 The Door Is Still Open To My Heart - Dean Martin
10 18 Time Is On My Side - The Rolling Stones


November 22, 1969

01 01 Wedding Bell Blues - The 5th Dimension (3rd and final week at #1)
02 10 Take a Letter, Maria - R.B. Greaves
03 03 Something - The Beatles
04 04 And When I Die - Blood, Sweat & Tears
05 08 Smile a Little Smile For Me - Flying Machine
06 11 Na Na Hey Hey Kiss Him Goodbye - Steam
07 02 Come Together - The Beatles
08 22 Yester-Me, Yester-You, Yesterday - Stevie Wonder
09 07 Suspicious Minds - Elvis Presley
10 06 I Can't Get Next To You - The Temptations


November 23, 1974

01 06 I Can Help - Billy Swan (1st of 2 weeks at #1)
02 02 Do It ('Til You're Satisfied) - B.T. Express
03 03 My Melody Of Love - Bobby Vinton
04 04 Tin Man - America
05 07 Longfellow Serenade - Neil Diamond
06 09 Everlasting Love - Carl Carlton
07 27 Kung Fu Fighting - Carl Douglas
08 16 When Will I See You Again - The Three Degrees
09 05 Back Home Again - John Denver
10 22 Cat's In The Cradle - Harry Chapin


November 24, 1979

01 03 No More Tears (Enough Is Enough) - Donna Summer & Barbra Streisand (1st of 2 weeks at #1)
02 04 Babe - Styx
03 01 Still - The Commodores
04 02 Dim All The Lights - Donna Summer
05 05 Heartache Tonight - The Eagles
06 09 Please Don't Go - K.C. & The Sunshine Band
07 07 You Decorated My Life - Kenny Rogers
08 14 Send One Your Love - Stevie Wonder
09 08 Tusk - Fleetwood Mac
10 10 Pop Muzik - M

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 from 35, 30, 25, and 20 years ago:

November 24, 1984

01 01 Wake Me Up Before You Go-Go - Wham! (2nd of 3 weeks at #1)
02 02 Purple Rain - Prince & The Revolution
03 04 I Feel For You - Chaka Khan
04 06 Out Of Touch - Daryl Hall & John Oates
05 07 Better Be Good To Me - Tina Turner
06 03 Caribbean Queen (No More Love On The Run) - Billy Ocean
07 08 Strut - Sheena Easton
08 09 All Through The Night - Cyndi Lauper
09 10 Penny Lover - Lionel Richie
10 05 I Just Called To Say I Love You - Stevie Wonder


November 25, 1989

01 02 Blame It On The Rain - Milli Vanilli (1st of 2 weeks at #1)
02 01 When I See You Smile - Bad English
03 03 Love Shack - The B-52's
04 04 (It's Just) The Way That You Love Me - Paula Abdul
05 06 We Didn't Start The Fire - Billy Joel
06 07 Angelia - Richard Marx
07 09 Poison - Alice Cooper
08 10 Back To Life - Soul II Soul
09 12 Don't Know Much - Linda Ronstadt & Aaron Neville
10 22 Another Day In Paradise - Phil Collins


November 26, 1994

01 01 I'll Make Love To You - Boyz II Men (14th and final week at #1)
02 02 Here Comes The Hotstepper - Ini Kamoze
03 14 On Bended Knee - Boyz II Men
04 04 Another Night - Real McCoy
05 05 Always - Bon Jovi
06 06 Secret - Madonna
07 03 All I Wanna Do - Sheryl Crow
08 07 I Wanna Be Down - Brandy
09 08 Never Lie - Immature
10 09 You Want This / '70s Love Groove - Janet Jackson

18 58 Spin The Black Circle - Pearl Jam


November 20, 1999

01 01 Smooth - Santana feat. Rob Thomas (5th of 12 weeks at #1)
02 06 Back At One - Brian McKnight
03 03 Mambo No. 5 (A Little Bit Of...) - Lou Bega
04 07 I Need To Know - Marc Anthony
05 04 Heartbreaker - Mariah Carey feat. Jay-Z
06 02 Satisfy You - Puff Daddy feat. R. Kelly
07 05 Unpretty - TLC
08 08 My Love Is Your Love - Whitney Houston
09 15 I Wanna Love You Forever - Jessica Simpson
10 09 Steal My Sunshine - Len

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 Flashback:

November 20, 2004

01 01 My Boo - Usher & Alicia Keys (4th of 6 weeks at #1)
02 02 Drop It Like It's Hot - Snoop Dogg feat. Pharrell
03 04 Lose My Breath - Destiny's Child
04 05 Over & Over - Nelly feat. Tim McGraw
05 03 Goodies - Ciara feat. Petey deleted
06 08 Breakaway - Kelly Clarkson
07 07 She Will Be Loved - Maroon 5
08 10 Let's Go - Trick Daddy feat. Twista & Lil Jon
09 13 Wonderful - Ja Rule feat. R. Kelly & Ashanti
10 06 Just Lose It - Eminem


November 21, 2009

01 01 Fireflies - Owl City (2nd and final week at #1)
02 03 Empire State Of Mind - Jay-Z & Alicia Keys
03 01 Whatcha Say - Jason Derulo
04 12 Replay - Iyaz
05 04 Down - Jay Sean feat. Lil Wayne
06 05 Party In The U.S.A. - Miley Cyrus
07 06 Paparazzi - Lady Gaga
08 08 3 - Britney Spears
09 75 Russian Roulette - Rihanna
10 11 Sweet Dreams - Beyonce

26 NE Favorite Girl - Justin Bieber
27 NE Do You Remember - Jay Sean feat. Sean Paul & Lil Jon


November 22, 2014

01 01 Shake It Off - Taylor Swift (4th and final week at #1)
02 02 All About That Bass - Meghan Trainor
03 04 Animals - Maroon 5
04 03 Habits (Stay High) - Tove Lo
05 05 Bang Bang - Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj
06 08 Hot Boy - Bobby Shmurda
07 24 Love Me Harder - Ariana Grande & The Weeknd
08 10 Take Me To Church - Hozier
09 06 Black Widow - Iggy Azalea feat. Rita Ora
10 07 Don't Tell 'Em - Jeremih feat. YG

25 NE The Heart Wants What It Wants - Selena Gomez


November 24, 2018

01 01 thank u, next - Ariana Grande (2nd of 7 weeks at #1)
02 03 Sicko Mode - Travis Scott
03 04 Happier - Marshmello & Bastille
04 06 Without Me - Halsey
05 02 Girls Like You - Maroon 5 feat. Cardi B
06 05 Lucid Dreams - Juice WRLD
07 09 Mo Bamba - Sheck Wes
08 12 High Hopes - Panic! At The Disco
09 08 ZEZE - Kodak Black feat. Travis Scott & Offset
10 10 Drip Too Hard - Lil Baby & Gunna

16 NE BAD! - XXXTentacion

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Nov 15, 2019 21:26:40 GMT -5 aussie1 said:

If youtube was included back in 2012 Gangnam style would of been unstoppable, so I'm glad it wasn't because it meant more songs could ascend to the #1 spot. It must of been a very strong #2 though.

So you prefer chart inaccuracies.

[Future Captain]

Even if Youtube is included back then, I doubt Gangnam Style will stay that long at #1 or prevent other songs from reaching the spot since when Diamonds reached #1 GS is already out of the top 5 and I doubt it will be able to stay #1 on streaming alone when sales and radio was much stronger back then

also, looking at the top 10 flashback i'm surprised that fireflies only spent two weeks at number one. considering how recognizable the song is until today I would've thought it was bigger

[Golden Bluebird]

[sirskimask]

1 point difference ffs I'm scared

[nak]

Stream Circles I'm tired of SYL

[Choco]

Nov 17, 2019 12:30:23 GMT -5 Future Captain said:

Even if Youtube is included back then, I doubt Gangnam Style will stay that long at #1 or prevent other songs from reaching the spot since when Diamonds reached #1 GS is already out of the top 5 and I doubt it will be able to stay #1 on streaming alone when sales and radio was much stronger back then

Not sure. Without Youtube OTR would have been out of the top 5 much sooner too. Probably well before it even approached 13/14 weeks at #1. And the Gangnam Style numbers were even bigger.

[lazer]

Come on Circles you can do this.

[85la]

Nov 17, 2019 13:25:13 GMT -5 Choco said:

Nov 17, 2019 12:30:23 GMT -5 Future Captain said:

Even if Youtube is included back then, I doubt Gangnam Style will stay that long at #1 or prevent other songs from reaching the spot since when Diamonds reached #1 GS is already out of the top 5 and I doubt it will be able to stay #1 on streaming alone when sales and radio was much stronger back then

Not sure. Without Youtube OTR would have been out of the top 5 much sooner too. Probably well before it even approached 13/14 weeks at #1. And the Gangnam Style numbers were even bigger.

I'm not sure about that, plus OTR's airplay (#2 peak) was also much higher than GS's, which only reached #12 iirc and dropped fairly quickly after that. I think it's likely GS would have only been #1 for some of One More Night's weeks, and maybe crowded some other songs out of the top 5 for a bit, but not blocking any other songs from #1. This incessant impression that GS was somehow robbed of like a 10+ week number one stay and that OMN wouldn't have been #1 at all probably isn't very accurate if you were to look at things more closely.

[renfield75]

Nov 17, 2019 13:48:17 GMT -5 85la said:

Nov 17, 2019 13:25:13 GMT -5 Choco said:

Not sure. Without Youtube OTR would have been out of the top 5 much sooner too. Probably well before it even approached 13/14 weeks at #1. And the Gangnam Style numbers were even bigger.

I'm not sure about that, plus OTR's airplay (#2 peak) was also much higher than GS's, which only reached #12 iirc and dropped fairly quickly after that. I think it's likely GS would have only been #1 for some of One More Night's weeks, and maybe crowded some other songs out of the top 5 for a bit, but not blocking any other songs from #1. This incessant impression that GS was somehow robbed of like a 10+ week number one stay and that OMN wouldn't have been #1 at all probably isn't very accurate if you were to look at things more closely.

It might have been more like Harlem Shake, where it's peak numbers were astronomical but it's longevity wasn't record-setting. Of course Gangnam Style had better longevity than Harlem Shake but I don't know if it was 15 weeks at number one better.

[HeyHeyHey]

Glad to see that it looks like Luke Combs will get his first BB Hot 100 top 20 hit. I hope a couple of the album tracks can debut in the 80s/90s is the chart.

[Lukas]

Billboard Hot 100 11/23/2019 Final Predictions:

Rank	Song	Radio	Streaming	Sales	Total
1	Circles	88,969,925	22,308,408	14,400	29,053
2	Someone You Loved	98,045,113	20,647,540	11,600	28,844
3	Senorita	78,383,459	15,941,659	6,700	22,278
4	Good As Hell	82,774,436	12,666,432	13,200	21,941
5	Truth Hurts	81,180,451	13,492,602	10,100	21,713
6	Memories	59,699,248	15,371,971	16,100	20,819
7	No Guidance	61,834,586	18,146,841	2,800	20,642
8	10,000 Hours	57,646,617	16,515,261	11,400	20,457
9	Lose You To Love Me	40,819,549	20,198,585	11,700	20,405
10	Panini	48,624,060	18,468,027	3,900	19,139

[woods]

Would this week be Circles' last chance at #1? I hope it goes #1 at some point, preferably this week.

[fhas]

Nov 17, 2019 18:56:05 GMT -5 woods said:

Would this week be Circles' last chance at #1? I hope it goes #1 at some point, preferably this week.

I think it's the early favorite for next week's chart. It's gonna have basically the same airplay numbers as SYL, but with more sales and maybe more streams.

[Au$tin]

Nov 17, 2019 19:08:04 GMT -5 fhas said:

Nov 17, 2019 18:56:05 GMT -5 woods said:

Would this week be Circles' last chance at #1? I hope it goes #1 at some point, preferably this week.

I think it's the early favorite for next week's chart. It's gonna have basically the same airplay numbers as SYL, but with more sales and maybe more streams.

Depends on what happens at pop. It was close to peaking at the beginning of the week but radio politics kicked in at the nick of time to secure it a week at #1 on pop tonight over "Good as Hell." This favors a heavy drop for it next week, which, given how close the two are, could let "Someone You Loved" barely keep (or take back) #1 again.

Two weeks from now, though, will be interesting. Both "Circles" and SYL will have fallen quite a bit by then. Will a new third sing be in place for a weak #1 battle? Will that be GAH? Will "Señorita" climb back? Will "Roxanne" have exploded enough by then? Will "everything i wanted" have a strong enough second full week to be in the running? Or will "Circles" have held on well enough on streaming that it should easily take the crown that week even with low numbers all around? Of course there's always the unexpected high profile release.

This top two is insanely close! Hell, the entire top 10 is really packed in there. Wouldn't take much to cause a huge rift for any of these songs. Really fun to watch it unfold. There's been a lot of that happening since "Old Town Road" fell out of the top spot. Thank god! Forget whoever said that long #1s are exciting. I'll take fast revolving, nail biting weeks any day over dull weeks where we already know what's happening.

[rimetm]

So, HITS' ODS numbers this week are quite suspect (very low across the board, giving 15-20% losses for our top 2 competitors that would put them under 28,000 chart points), so I'm not gonna do a final data-based prediction. Just gonna have to hope Billboard gives a fair amount of details for me tomorrow to piece together everything else from.

[gs]

Nov 17, 2019 19:34:18 GMT -5 rimetm said:

So, HITS' ODS numbers this week are quite suspect (very low across the board, giving 15-20% losses for our top 2 competitors that would put them under 28,000 chart points), so I'm not gonna do a final data-based prediction. Just gonna have to hope Billboard gives a fair amount of details for me tomorrow to piece together everything else from.

Last week's chart got Panini super off (10.7M vs 13.1M on the Sales/Revenue chart). I'm just using my previous week's estimate and adjusting it based on Spotify drop, and using the sales chart to adjust it before the following week's final predictions. That's assuming the sales chart is accurate of course 

[Abbaschand]

Nov 17, 2019 11:40:55 GMT -5 Soulsista said:

November 25, 1989

01 02 Blame It On The Rain - Milli Vanilli (1st of 2 weeks at #1)

Has there ever been a bigger musical scam than Milli Vanilli? Two young men with a subpar music skill, with the help of lipsyncing, winning a Grammy for Best New Artist? I hope Fab Morvan is doing well right now.

[Deleted]

Nov 17, 2019 20:33:50 GMT -5 Abbaschand said:

Nov 17, 2019 11:40:55 GMT -5 Soulsista said:

November 25, 1989

01 02 Blame It On The Rain - Milli Vanilli (1st of 2 weeks at #1)

Has there ever been a bigger musical scam than Milli Vanilli? Two young men with a subpar music skill, with the help of lipsyncing, winning a Grammy for Best New Artist? I hope Fab Morvan is doing well right now.

I was just thinking of commenting something along those lines.

[lugus15]

Nov 17, 2019 19:32:13 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Nov 17, 2019 19:08:04 GMT -5 fhas said:

I think it's the early favorite for next week's chart. It's gonna have basically the same airplay numbers as SYL, but with more sales and maybe more streams.

Depends on what happens at pop. It was close to peaking at the beginning of the week but radio politics kicked in at the nick of time to secure it a week at #1 on pop tonight over "Good as Hell." This favors a heavy drop for it next week, which, given how close the two are, could let "Someone You Loved" barely keep (or take back) #1 again.

Two weeks from now, though, will be interesting. Both "Circles" and SYL will have fallen quite a bit by then. Will a new third sing be in place for a weak #1 battle? Will that be GAH? Will "Señorita" climb back? Will "Roxanne" have exploded enough by then? Will "everything i wanted" have a strong enough second full week to be in the running? Or will "Circles" have held on well enough on streaming that it should easily take the crown that week even with low numbers all around? Of course there's always the unexpected high profile release.

This top two is insanely close! Hell, the entire top 10 is really packed in there. Wouldn't take much to cause a huge rift for any of these songs. Really fun to watch it unfold. There's been a lot of that happening since "Old Town Road" fell out of the top spot. Thank god! Forget whoever said that long #1s are exciting. I'll take fast revolving, nail biting weeks any day over dull weeks where we already know what's happening.

Iknowright.gif

Lizzo really is just a new video and/or a discount on itunes from going to #1 with GAH.

[Crimsonio]

Lizzo has a new video for GAH in her pocket that she'll combine with the AMAs and a discount. Selena may be in the running to repeak after the AMAs as well, her return is highly anticipated.

[13]

Nov 17, 2019 21:27:03 GMT -5 Crimsonio said:

Lizzo has a new video for GAH in her pocket that she'll combine with the AMAs and a discount. 

Is this speculation? That would make her and GAH into a big contender for #1 soon.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

God, I'm so tired of Lizzo...this is too much.

[Crimsonio]

Nov 17, 2019 21:33:18 GMT -5 13 said:

Nov 17, 2019 21:27:03 GMT -5 Crimsonio said:

Lizzo has a new video for GAH in her pocket that she'll combine with the AMAs and a discount. 

Is this speculation? That would make her and GAH into a big contender for #1 soon.

Yes she confirmed she recorded a new video for GAH like a week or two ago.

[Au$tin]

Nov 17, 2019 21:33:18 GMT -5 13 said:

Nov 17, 2019 21:27:03 GMT -5 Crimsonio said:

Lizzo has a new video for GAH in her pocket that she'll combine with the AMAs and a discount. 

Is this speculation? That would make her and GAH into a big contender for #1 soon.

She did post that she shot a new video, but the discount and release date are speculation. She is performing on the AMAs though, and very likely she'll perform GAH.

[king_billboard_100]

Nov 17, 2019 21:33:18 GMT -5 13 said:

Nov 17, 2019 21:27:03 GMT -5 Crimsonio said:

Lizzo has a new video for GAH in her pocket that she'll combine with the AMAs and a discount. 

Is this speculation? That would make her and GAH into a big contender for #1 soon.

So the top five will be like:
Good as hell
Circles
SYL
Dance Money
Roxanne

[velaxti]

Gangnam Style definitely had longevity, yes. I think when they did start counting Youtube in 2013 we could see that from the charts (Streaming Songs, etc.) that its streaming was still incredible by then.

But streaming counted for about 20% of the Hot 100 in 2012, and One More Night was a very successful song its own right (it did very well on both iTunes and Spotify, and "very well" is an understatement for its airplay). I also thought it could still have been #1, at least for a bit, even with Youtube being counted and Gangnam Style's success, although it's impossible to prove I guess.

But I have a lot to say about the Gangnam Style situation in general. It's one of the biggest songs of the decade, and it was the most glaring example we've had in a long time of the Billboard charts clearly not being accurate. 99% of the time, you can't REALLY disprove the charts.

For example, if someone thinks Senorita is currently the most popular song in the country, or someone else thinks Someone You Loved Is, it's pretty difficult for one person to prove the other wrong, and they'd both have lots of people who would agree with them. But there was a time where pretty much 99% of the public from every demographic (including Adam Levine and Billboard staff, btw), thought Gangnam Style was the most popular song, so the whole thing was quite awkward, and it was one of those times you could definitively say the Hot 100 was "wrong", and why they added Youtube pretty shortly afterwards. But I think people are unfair to One More Night. People act like its streaming was terrible, when in fact it managed to peak all the way at #1 on the Spotify and the streaming charts (which at the time was just the On-Demand chart): en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_number-one_On-Demand_Songs_of_2012_(U.S.)

Really, if Youtube was included at the time, Diamonds probably would have been more at risk of losing all of its weeks at #1 than One More Night.