2020 Billboard Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (Year 8)

[atg]

Jan 8, 2020 13:10:03 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Does anyone remember that Drake dropped a song?

Yea but it wasn’t released on any streaming platforms besides youtube

[tuna]

Jan 7, 2020 17:53:38 GMT -5 Normi said:

Lmao it's January 7 and yall think we've already heard the Year End #1

Usually the year-end #1 comes up around the start of the year. Tik Tok hit #1 the first week of 2010, and Thrift Shop was in the top 10 by the beginning of 2013. Uptown Funk was #3 the first week of 2015.

We'll definitely know what it is by April.

[rockgolf]

What is it good for?

Absolutely nothing but YouTube views. Not on sale or streaming, IIRC.

[Lukas]

Jan 8, 2020 14:49:18 GMT -5 tuna said:

Jan 7, 2020 17:53:38 GMT -5 Normi said:

Lmao it's January 7 and yall think we've already heard the Year End #1

Usually the year-end #1 comes up around the start of the year. Tik Tok hit #1 the first week of 2010, and Thrift Shop was in the top 10 by the beginning of 2013. Uptown Funk was #3 the first week of 2015.

We'll definitely know what it is by April.

Technically we wouldn't know the exact song, but we know that we would've already heard the song that would be the Year-End #1. I don't think everyone knew OTR would be the #1 on the year-end in April.

[Normi]

OK wow just noticed that all YE #1s of the 2010s were released before February
2010: Tik Tok, August 7 2009
2011: Rolling In The Deep, November 29 2012: Somebody That I Used To Know, July 5 2011
2013: Thrift Shop, August 27 2012
2014: Happy, November 21 2013
2015: Uptown Funk, November 10 2014
2016: Love Yourself, November 13 2015
2017: Shape Of You, January 6 2017
2018: God's Plan, January 19 2018
2019: Old Town Road, December 3 2018

I hope this trend doesn't continue in 2020 (unless Rih drops in January) but it's pretty interesting considering none of these were probably even considered for YE #1 in early January (OTR mostly made it due to its April remix)
Here's to hoping Don't Start Now continues the November trend

[somelikeitwhen]

Happy was released whenever Despicable Me 2 came out (July I think?)

[Deleted]

Jan 8, 2020 16:17:19 GMT -5 Normi said:

OK wow just noticed that all YE #1s of the 2010s were released before February
2010: Tik Tok, August 7 2009
2011: Rolling In The Deep, November 29 2012: Somebody That I Used To Know, July 5 2011
2013: Thrift Shop, August 27 2012
2014: Happy, November 21 2013
2015: Uptown Funk, November 10 2014
2016: Love Yourself, November 13 2015
2017: Shape Of You, January 6 2017
2018: God's Plan, January 19 2018
2019: Old Town Road, December 3 2018

I hope this trend doesn't continue in 2020 (unless Rih drops in January) but it's pretty interesting considering none of these were probably even considered for YE #1 in early January (OTR mostly made it due to its April remix)
Here's to hoping Don't Start Now continues the November trend

Tik Tok hit #1 right at the start of 2010 (although it was a month into 2010's Chart Year) and stayed there through all of January and February, so iit was in contention for the Year-End #1 right from the start.

[Deleted]

Jan 8, 2020 16:20:55 GMT -5 somelikeitwhen said:

Happy was released whenever Despicable Me 2 came out (July I think?)

Late June for most of Europe + Australia and early July for the US and America.

As an animated movie geek back in the day, I feel so proud for discovering and loving the song before it became such a massive (and rather overplayed) hit 😊

[rockgolf]

Jan 7, 2020 17:53:38 GMT -5 Normi said:

Lmao it's January 7 and yall think we've already heard the Year End #1

Yes, we're only 7 days into 2020, but Billboard is almost two months into it's chart year. Circles is going to be around for a long time. It's very radio friendly, and whatever attempts to take it on will have only have 10 months or less to try to pass Circles on points.

Years ago, with shorter chart lives of 16-20 weeks for even the biggest hits, that was much more probable. But in these charts, the top 1% are almost guaranteed 40 or more weeks in the top 30. So any song that starts to peak in mid-November has a build-in major advantage.

We're not going to have another track like Old Town Road that just sticks at #1 forever every year. I'd be surprised if we get a track that lasts even 10 weeks at #1 this year. Because that's how the pendulum swings.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Probably one thing that Circles doesn't have going for it is that it was high on the charts in a relatively weak period for the Hot 100. The thing that it would have going for it is that it would expect it to get to 52 weeks charted, which would mean 42 weeks toward the 2020 Year-End. It would take a very strong a relatively long lasting, well charting song to outlast it. It would probably need to be in the Hot 100 by now or February at the latest. I would say Circles would at least have #2 in the bag under this scenario.

[rockgolf]

If Circles is top 2 of 2020, it's a lock for the top 100 of the decade. Because there are only 3 scenarios:

• Chart turnover remains relatively constant so Circles would probably end up in the top 20 of the decade
• Charts slow down even more, so several songs will surpass Circles' points but I can't see over 90 songs being able to maintain that longevity.
• Charts speed up in which case, Circles' points total may be insurmountable by later songs.

Seven days into the decade, and we have a very likely contender for the first song to be in the top 100 of the decade...


:o

[tuna]

There's a couple contenders for the top 100 already. Dance Monkey isn't leaving anytime soon, and songs that are currently growing like The Box or Blinding Lights can probably get to that level

[atg]

I think blinding lights could be the weeknd’s most popular song internationally and could possibly place high on the YE list. Its def the most radio friendly single he’s released. Can’t feel my face was about cocaine, in the night was about a story about a stripper, i feel it coming is the obvious sex, maybe call out my name and die for you could also be friendly but blinding lights is clicking with people the most

[GPMB]

my thoughts on every song currently in the top 50’s likelihood of making the YE:

Circles - yes
Memories - yes
The Box - yes
Someone You Loved - yes
ROXANNE - yes
Good as Hell - yes
Dance Monkey - yes
HIGHEST IN THE ROOM - yes
10,000 Hours - yes
Lose You to Love Me - yes
Señorita - yes
Ballin’ - yes
BOP - yes
bad guy - almost certainly
Old Town Road - probably
No Guidance - almost certainly
Panini - almost certainly
Truth Hurts - almost certainly
Trampoline - probably
Heartless - probably
Don’t Start Now - probably
Bandit - probably
everything i wanted - probably
Hot - probably
Only Human - maybe, leaning towards yes
One Man Band - teetering between maybe and probably
Woah - probably
I Don’t Care - maybe, leaning towards no
Sucker - maybe, leaning towards no
Even Though I’m Leaving - maybe, leaning towards yes
Falling - realistically it’s probably too early to tell but given that it’s a streaming monster, it likely will
hot girl bummer - probably
Ransom - maybe
Lover - maybe, leaning towards no (unfortunately)
Adore You - too early to tell
The Bones - maybe, leaning towards yes
Graveyard - maybe
OUT WEST - no, unless it somehow sticks around
On Chill - maybe, leaning towards no
Talk - probably not
Suicidal - too early to tell
Beautiful People - probably not
Suge - almost certainly not
Futsal Shuffle 2020 - too early to tell, but I think more likely than not
Juicy - maybe
No Idea - maybe
Baby - no
GANG GANG - no
What If I Never Get Over You - maybe, leaning towards yes
My Oh My - too early to tell, but assuming it doesn’t collapse like Liar did, in my mind it’s probably going to stick around and become a YE hit

[brandon]

Week 8

The Christmas songs are finally off the charts!

Also, due to being off the charts, I've reduced all the Christmas songs back to their acronyms.

Apologies for the delay. Am on a week-long vacation at the moment that started on the 5th and ends on the 12th.

As for what is locked, nothing new this week. Within striking distance, we have 10000 Hours and Lose You To Love Me.

Locked: None

Expected To Be Locked Next Week: 10000 Hours, Lose You To Love Me

SPOILER: Click to show

{Hot 100 Week 8 Bubbling Under}

[GPMB]

oh god i just realized Baby Sitter dropped out

[sirskimask]

Now that the Christmas songs are gone I can take another proper look at our potential repeat candidates from the 2019 list and see what's going on:

Locked:
Circles
Someone You Loved

Very Likely:
Senorita
Bad Guy
Old Town Road
No Guidance
Truth Hurts

Likely:
Panini
Trampoline

Possible:
Only Human
Ran$om

Unlikely:
I Don't Care
Sucker
Talk

Very Unlikely:
Beautiful People
Suge
Baby

Might start doing this weekly until all potential repeats are either locked or off the charts.

[brandon]

I might start doing proper predictions. What should the cut-off be, as in what songs I predict will be locked in the next X weeks?
I reckon 5 weeks, but anything can happen in 5 weeks, so it'd just be based on chart position and current points.

[tuna]

Jan 9, 2020 14:42:29 GMT -5 atg said:

I think blinding lights could be the weeknd’s most popular song internationally and could possibly place high on the YE list. Its def the most radio friendly single he’s released. Can’t feel my face was about cocaine, in the night was about a story about a stripper, i feel it coming is the obvious sex, maybe call out my name and die for you could also be friendly but blinding lights is clicking with people the most

It's consistently hovering around top 5 on global spotify. It's hit the top ten in like 15 countries and peaked at #1 in three (interestingly they were all in the same general area)

Again, it feels like people are just waiting for an excuse to make it the #1 song of the year.

[Deleted]

Unlike last year, I am really not caring and certainly not rooting for the songs that might potentially repeat (except maybe OTR), since only "Someone You Loved" and "Circles" feel like true hits from this charting year.

I know this is probably my third time saying this, but I just hate it when leftovers from the previous year repeat over newer songs only because the former kept being put on Spotify playlists and milked by radio because they are too lazy to push different, exciting music.

(Also, it would honestly be a nightmare if my two least favorite songs from last year, "Señorita" and "No Guidance", repeat over two of my favorites, "Lover" and "Take What You Want" + "On Chill")

[Deleted]

Jan 10, 2020 10:15:35 GMT -5 tuna said:

Jan 9, 2020 14:42:29 GMT -5 atg said:

I think blinding lights could be the weeknd’s most popular song internationally and could possibly place high on the YE list. Its def the most radio friendly single he’s released. Can’t feel my face was about cocaine, in the night was about a story about a stripper, i feel it coming is the obvious sex, maybe call out my name and die for you could also be friendly but blinding lights is clicking with people the most

It's consistently hovering around top 5 on global spotify. It's hit the top ten in like 15 countries and peaked at #1 in three (interestingly they were all in the same general area)

Again, it feels like people are just waiting for an excuse to make it the #1 song of the year.

A concept: "Blinding Lights" as the #1 song of 2020, heralding the trend of throwback pop alongside Dua Lipa's "Future Nostalgia" album 😍

[anorable]

Jan 10, 2020 15:50:51 GMT -5 @aprettyoddmusicbox said:

Jan 10, 2020 10:15:35 GMT -5 tuna said:

It's consistently hovering around top 5 on global spotify. It's hit the top ten in like 15 countries and peaked at #1 in three (interestingly they were all in the same general area)

Again, it feels like people are just waiting for an excuse to make it the #1 song of the year.

A concept: "Blinding Lights" as the #1 song of 2020, heralding the trend of throwback pop alongside Dua Lipa's "Future Nostalgia" album 😍

Yes please.

[Deleted]

Jan 10, 2020 15:49:03 GMT -5 @aprettyoddmusicbox said:

Unlike last year, I am really not caring and certainly not rooting for the songs that might potentially repeat (except maybe OTR), since only "Someone You Loved" and "Circles" feel like true hits from this charting year.

I know this is probably my third time saying this, but I just hate it when leftovers from the previous year repeat over newer songs only because the former kept being put on Spotify playlists and milked by radio because they are too lazy to push different, exciting music.

(Also, it would honestly be a nightmare if my two least favorite songs from last year, "Señorita" and "No Guidance", repeat over two of my favorites, "Lover" and "Take What You Want" + "On Chill")

Lover, Take What You Want and On Chill seem to be the most likely candidates to be caught between years out of the list of songs at risk of doing such currently. Meanwhile, Senorita and No Guidance are also guaranteed to repeat in 2020. This means that your nightmare might actually come true.

Speaking of songs at risk of being caught between years, here's all of them listed, plus those already caught between 2019 and 2020's YE.

Almost Guaranteed To Make 2020:

Ballin'

HIGHEST IN THE ROOM

Likely To Make 2020:

Hot

Bandit

Toss Up:

One Man Band

Even Though I'm Leaving

Hot Girl Bummer

The Bones

Graveyard

Juicy

Likely To Be Caught Between Years:

Lover

On Chill

Take What You Want

Almost Guaranteed To Be Caught Between Years:

What If I Never Get Over You

Heat

Playing Games

Camelot

223s

Songs Already Caught Between Years:

Prayed For You

Time

I Don't Know About You

[lights]

Jan 10, 2020 18:30:21 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Jan 10, 2020 15:49:03 GMT -5 @aprettyoddmusicbox said:

Unlike last year, I am really not caring and certainly not rooting for the songs that might potentially repeat (except maybe OTR), since only "Someone You Loved" and "Circles" feel like true hits from this charting year.

I know this is probably my third time saying this, but I just hate it when leftovers from the previous year repeat over newer songs only because the former kept being put on Spotify playlists and milked by radio because they are too lazy to push different, exciting music.

(Also, it would honestly be a nightmare if my two least favorite songs from last year, "Señorita" and "No Guidance", repeat over two of my favorites, "Lover" and "Take What You Want" + "On Chill")

Lover, Take What You Want and On Chill seem to be the most likely candidates to be caught between years out of the list of songs at risk of doing such currently. Meanwhile, Senorita and No Guidance are also guaranteed to repeat in 2020. This means that your nightmare might actually come true.

Speaking of songs at risk of being caught between years, here's all of them listed, plus those already caught between 2019 and 2020's YE.

Almost Guaranteed To Make 2020:

Ballin'

HIGHEST IN THE ROOM

Likely To Make 2020:

Hot

Bandit

Toss Up:

One Man Band

Even Though I'm Leaving

Hot Girl Bummer

The Bones

Graveyard

Juicy

Likely To Be Caught Between Years:

Lover

On Chill

Take What You Want

Almost Guaranteed To Be Caught Between Years:

What If I Never Got Over You

Heat

Playing Games

Camelot

223s

Songs Already Caught Between Years:

Prayed For You

Time

Possibly harsh on what if I never get over you? It's still gaining on radio after all.

[Deleted]

Jan 10, 2020 18:42:58 GMT -5 lights said:

Jan 10, 2020 18:30:21 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Lover, Take What You Want and On Chill seem to be the most likely candidates to be caught between years out of the list of songs at risk of doing such currently. Meanwhile, Senorita and No Guidance are also guaranteed to repeat in 2020. This means that your nightmare might actually come true.

Speaking of songs at risk of being caught between years, here's all of them listed, plus those already caught between 2019 and 2020's YE.

Almost Guaranteed To Make 2020:

Ballin'

HIGHEST IN THE ROOM

Likely To Make 2020:

Hot

Bandit

Toss Up:

One Man Band

Even Though I'm Leaving

Hot Girl Bummer

The Bones

Graveyard

Juicy

Likely To Be Caught Between Years:

Lover

On Chill

Take What You Want

Almost Guaranteed To Be Caught Between Years:

What If I Never Got Over You

Heat

Playing Games

Camelot

223s

Songs Already Caught Between Years:

Prayed For You

Time

Possibly harsh on what if I never get over you? It's still gaining on radio after all.

I feel like country radio is going to ditch it the moment it hits #1 on the country radio charts. This coming week will be its 20th week on the Billboard Hot 100 charts and according to Kworb, it will probably reach #1 on country radio this week as well (as well as a new peak of around #40). That means if radio ditches it, it will fall below #50 on the official charts on its 21st week, thus making it recurrent (it could survive 1 week but that's about it).

[lights]

Damn I didn't realise it had been charting for quite that long. You're probably right then it doesn't have much chance :/

[brandon]

I present, my predictions! Songs that have a straight shot into being locked, and songs that are predicted to be locked in the next 5 weeks (based on chart position and current points) will be included. Locks at is what position it needs (or better) to be locked next week. Pred. Weeks is predicted # of weeks before being locked.

[Deleted]

Jan 10, 2020 15:50:51 GMT -5 @aprettyoddmusicbox said:

Jan 10, 2020 10:15:35 GMT -5 tuna said:

It's consistently hovering around top 5 on global spotify. It's hit the top ten in like 15 countries and peaked at #1 in three (interestingly they were all in the same general area)

Again, it feels like people are just waiting for an excuse to make it the #1 song of the year.

A concept: "Blinding Lights" as the #1 song of 2020, heralding the trend of throwback pop alongside Dua Lipa's "Future Nostalgia" album 😍

We got tons of throwback pop last decade (heck, the #1 song of the decade was a throwback), but hey, I won't complain if Blinding Lights becomes the #1 song of 2020.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Hot shot prediction: Roxanne will peak at #2 and end up #11 on the year-end list.

[Deleted]

Jan 10, 2020 18:30:21 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Jan 10, 2020 15:49:03 GMT -5 @aprettyoddmusicbox said:

Lover, Take What You Want and On Chill seem to be the most likely candidates to be caught between years out of the list of songs at risk of doing such currently. Meanwhile, Senorita and No Guidance are also guaranteed to repeat in 2020. This means that your nightmare might actually come true.

Almost Guaranteed To Be Caught Between Years:

What If I Never Get Over You

Heat

Playing Games

Camelot

223s

Joy... (😭)

Hey, at least "Heat" seems to be (almost) guaranteed to get caught between years! Hopefully we as a society leave Chris Brown in the 2010s.
Not too disappointed about any of these songs, even if I wouldn't mind Lady Antebellum getting another hit.