2020 Billboard Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (Year 8)

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Best number one singles of the 2010s:
1. This is America
2. Someone Like You
3. The Hills
4. SICKO MODE
5. Somebody that I Used to Know
6. Locked Out of Heaven
7. Old Town Road
8. Blank Space
9. Uptown Funk!
10. Hello
Honorable Mentions: bad guy, Rolling in the Deep, Sunflower, Set Fire to the Rain, Teenage Dream, What Do You Mean, Nice for What


Worst number one singles:
1. Someone You Loved
2. SAD!
3. Sexy and I Know It
4. OMG
5. All About that Bass
6. Look What You Made Me Do
7. Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You)
8. One More Night
9. Blurred Lines
10. Imma Be
Dishonorable Mentions: Grenade, Roar, Cheerleader, Give Me Everything, Raise Your Glass, Harlem Shake, Love Yourself

I think what's interesting is that there were only a few truly great songs that hit number one this decade (I count my top 7) but I'd also say there were only a few truly awful songs that hit number one. Beyond SYL, SAD! and Sexy and I Know It, most of my least favorite number songs I wouldn't rank high on a worst list, there were worse hits that year in most cases. 2016 only has a dishonourable mention and 2018 actually has two of my favorite number one singles despite the lack of quality of both years. Same goes for the best hit songs: only TIA and SLY I see topping my best list, there were also better hit songs. 

[lights]

I would have to say you've posted that in the wrong place

[Deleted]

We're still in early January though, where retrospectives on the past decade are still valid. Regardless, I think dremolus - solarpunk should probably post this on a separate thread under the 'Your Opinion Please' section. It could generate some interesting discussion on the topic.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jan 12, 2020 10:09:10 GMT -5 @aprettyoddmusicbox said:

We're still in early January though, where retrospectives on the past decade are still valid. Regardless, I think dremolus - solarpunk should probably post this on a separate thread under the 'Your Opinion Please' section. It could generate some interesting discussion on the topic.

Apologies. Still new around the forums and I don't know how to navigate towards threads about general music.

[Deleted]

With Old Town Road dropping all the way to 46, I am not too sure whether or not it will make the 2020 year end list now. It will probably be very borderline considering an album bomb could easily knock it into recurrency. Bad Guy also dropped to 33 but I think it should be able to make it regardless.

[Deleted]

Here's week 9 of my 2020 year end predictions. Credit to rimetm and Sailor Tanooki for the early Billboard chart numbers this week.

Locked This Week: Memories, Good As Hell & Roxanne

Will Lock Next Week: Lose You To Love Me, 10,000 Hours & Dance Monkey

Within Striking Distance Next Week: No Guidance, Ballin', BOP & HIGHEST IN THE ROOM (Maybe The Box too but not sure.)

Dropouts:
Ran$om 1120 (Will miss the 2020 year end list.)

1 Circles 2620
2 Someone You Loved 2323
3 Memories 2192
4 Good As Hell 2149
5 Roxanne 2020

- - - - - LOCKED CUTOFF (2000 Points) - - - - -

6 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1912
7 Lose You To Love Me 1889
8 10,000 Hours 1872
9 Dance Monkey 1828
10 Senorita 1726

- - - - - STRIKING DISTANCE (1700 Points) - - - - -

11 No Guidance 1668
12 Ballin' 1634
13 BOP 1602
14 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 1598
15 Bad Guy 1530
16 Panini 1529
17 Truth Hurts 1523

- - - - - TRACKING CUTOFF (1500 Points) - - - - -

18 Trampoline 1466
19 Bandit 1375
20 Hot 1363
21 Woah 1324
22 Everything I Wanted 1285
23 Old Town Road 1279
24 The Box 1252
25 One Man Band 1243
26 Lover 1236
27 Heartless 1235
28 Even Though I'm Leaving 1219
29 Don't Start Now 1206
30 On Chill 1148
31 Only Human 1115
32 Graveyard 1088
33 Hot Girl Bummer 1079
34 Playing Games 1029
35 The Bones 1026
36 Heat 1010
37 Juicy 982
38 Falling 970
39 Beautiful People 935
40 Take What You Want 850
41 I Don't Care 779
42 Into The Unknown 734
43 Blinding Lights 731
44 Adore You 706
45 Suicidal 705
46 Nice To Meet Ya 645
47 Futsal Shuffle 2020 639
48 No Idea 627
49 My Oh My 517
50 Yummy 330

[GPMB]

based on the revelation that there has been a formula change that works heavily against YouTube and TikTok and the available data that chartdata has posted i now believe Old Town Road and No Idea have next to no chance to make the year end, and likely neither does Panini

[twelvevinylrecords]

imagine going back 3 months and telling people that old town road might not make the 2020 year end. This is crazy

[Deleted]

Jan 13, 2020 20:23:00 GMT -5 GPMB said:

based on the revelation that there has been a formula change that works heavily against YouTube and TikTok and the available data that chartdata has posted i now believe Old Town Road and No Idea have next to no chance to make the year end, and likely neither does Panini

I think Panini will be fine. It is expected to lock in about 4 weeks but 3 or even 2 is enough for it to scrape by the bottom.

Old Town Road I think will probably miss due to the formula change. I have "no idea" about No Idea though (yeah bad pun).

EDIT: I calculated that at its current rate, Old Town Road needs 4 weeks to have even a chance of making it and 7 weeks to lock.

[sirskimask]

Jan 13, 2020 20:24:51 GMT -5 twelvevinylrecords said:

imagine going back 3 months and telling people that old town road might not make the 2020 year end. This is crazy

It went from being likely in November, to being unlikely in December due to Christmas songs, to being likely again last week thanks to year end countdowns, to now being unlikely again with the new rule. Who even knows what it's gonna do next, watch it rebound for absolutely no reason and end up making the year end list anyway just to prove us wrong again. 

[GPMB]

Jan 13, 2020 20:28:13 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Jan 13, 2020 20:23:00 GMT -5 GPMB said:

based on the revelation that there has been a formula change that works heavily against YouTube and TikTok and the available data that chartdata has posted i now believe Old Town Road and No Idea have next to no chance to make the year end, and likely neither does Panini

I think Panini will be fine. It is expected to lock in about 4 weeks but 3 or even 2 is enough for it to scrape by the bottom.

Old Town Road I think will probably miss due to the formula change. I have "no idea" about No Idea though (yeah bad pun).

EDIT: I calculated that at its current rate, Old Town Road needs 4 weeks to have even a chance of making it and 7 weeks to lock.

oh jeez yeah OTR is gonna make a fat miss

[spicymapping]

Headset? On. Knuckles? Cracked. Ransom? Gone. Yup, it’s quality time.

TL, DR:
Locked: Lose You To Love Me, 10,000 Hours, Señorita, Dance Monkey
Added: The Box, Don’t Start Now, Only Human, On Chill

1. Circles (=)
2. Someone You Loved (=)
3. Memories (=)
4. Good As Hell (=)
5. Roxanne (=)
6. Lose You To Love Me (+1)
7. 10,000 Hours (+2)
8. All I Want For Christmas Is You (-2)
9. Señorita (-1)
10. Dance Monkey (=)

PREDICTED CUTOFF - 17K POINTS

11. No Guidance (=)
12. Ballin’ (+2)
13. Bop (+2)
14. Truth Hurts (-2)
15. Highest In The Room (+1)
16. Panini (-3)
17. Bad Guy (=)
18. Trampoline (+1)
19. Bandit (+1)
20. Hot (+1)
21. Woah (+1)
22. Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree (-4)
23. Everything I Wanted (+1)
24. Heartless (+1)
25. Old Town Road (-2)
26. One Man Band (=)
27. Lover (+1)
28. Even Though I’m Leaving (+1)
29. The Box (NEW)
30. Don’t Start Now (NEW)
31. Only Human (NEW)
32. On Chill (NEW)
33. Ransom (-6)

TRACKING CUTOFF - 10K POINTS

[Lukas]

So it looks like Truth Hurts may not be able to make the year-end list this time around. Huh.

[spicymapping]

Why wouldn't it? It's not dropping out for at least a few weeks and it's almost there already.

[weirdo]

Jan 14, 2020 7:51:43 GMT -5 Lukas said:

So it looks like Truth Hurts may not be able to make the year-end list this time around. Huh.

Actually i think it might make it. Its been a pretty stable aong the last few weeks, and the 25/52 woulent affect it for awhile so it would get time to make the list

[Lukas]

Jan 14, 2020 7:55:38 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

Why wouldn't it? It's not dropping out for at least a few weeks and it's almost there already.

Oops. My bad since I thought it dropped a lot like other old songs. Turns out it didn't.

[lifeofaguardian]

Alright, here are the current playlists - as always, current cutoff is 175.000 points to be locked, 100.000 points to be put on the weekly playlist.







New songs:

Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now
Jonas Brothers - Only Human
Wale ft. Jeremih - On Chill
Roddy Ricch - The Box


Drop-outs:
None at the moment. I might remove Ran$om soon, though, since it dropped out this week and it's only at around 104.000 points.

Locked songs:

Arizona Zervas - Roxanne
Selena Gomez - Lose You To Love Me
Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber - 10.000 Hours


Lowest locked song:

Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber - 10.000 Hours


And now for the predictions - these are the songs that would make the year-end list if they either get to 20 weeks or remain for 10 more weeks (depending on multiple factors)






New Songs:
Justin Bieber - Yummy
Harry Styles - Adore You
Camila Cabello ft. DaBaby - My Oh My
Lady Antebellum - What If I Never Get Over You
Summer Walker - Playing Games
Lil Uzi Vert - Fustal Shuffle 2020

Drop-Outs:
Lil Tecca - Ran$om
Don Toliver - No Idea

[tanooki]

1/18/20 - Week 9

LW TW SONG POINTS
1 1 Circles 2,644
2 2 Someone You Loved 2,266
3 3 Memories 2,159
4 4 Good As Hell 2,077
5 5 Roxanne 2,036
6 6 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1,806
7 7 Lose You to Love Me 1,783
8 8 10,000 Hours 1,762
9 9 Dance Monkey 1,725
10 10 Senorita 1,583
11 11 No Guidance 1,525
13 12 BOP 1,478
15 13 Ballin' 1,470
16 14 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 1,445
14 15 Panini 1,409
17 16 Truth Hurts 1,389
18 17 bad guy 1,344
19 18 Trampoline 1,309
12 19 Rockin Around the Christmas Tree 1,291
20 20 Bandit 1,206
21 21 Hot 1,185
23 22 Woah 1,155
41 23 The Box 1,129
25 24 everything I wanted 1,127
24 25 Old Town Road 1,103
28 26 Heartless 1,101
30 27 One Man Band 1,057
29 28 Lover 1,049
31 29 Even Though I'm Leaving 1,027
22 30 A Holly Jolly Christmas 1,026
34 31 Don't Start Now 975
32 32 Only Human 973
26 33 Jingle Bell Rock 950
27 34 Ran$om 943
33 35 On Chill 938
37 36 hot girl bummer 846
36 37 Graveyard 844
38 38 Beautiful People 809
42 39 The Bones 800
39 40 Playing Games 797
35 41 It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year 789
40 42 Heat 784
43 43 Falling 772
44 44 Juicy 740
46 45 What If I Never Get Over You 693
51 46 I Don't Care 687
45 47 VIBEZ 677
47 48 Heart on Ice 664
48 49 Take What You Want 651
50 50 Remember You Young 645
58 51 Talk 628
56 52 Ridin Roads 623
52 53 Camelot 621
59 54 Heartache Medication 605
55 55 Leave Em Alone 598
60 56 Kinfolks 596
57 57 223's 589
63 58 Blinding Lights 588
49 59 Last Christmas 575
74 60 Adore You 566
72 61 Futsal Shuffle 2020 558
53 62 Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow 550
64 63 Into the Unknown 545
54 64 Feliz Navidad 538
69 65 Suicidal 538
65 66 Nice to Meet Ya 525
66 67 Enemies 519
61 68 The Christmas Song 515
62 69 Baby 498
81 70 Suge 477
75 71 Easy 476
83 72 No Idea 461
79 73 Vete 460
88 74 Sucker 454
84 75 Homesick 448
67 76 Sleigh Ride 444
68 77 Hate Me 441
71 78 Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer 440
70 79 Slow Dancing in the Dark 440
73 80 Death 435
85 81 Watermelon Sugar 433
76 82 Baby Sitter 417
77 83 Happy Holiday/The Holiday Season 414
78 84 Yellow Hearts 413
80 85 How Do You Sleep? 409
91 86 Start Wit Me 396
82 87 Prayed For You 390
90 88 RITMO 387
98 89 My Oh My 380
86 90 Lucid Dreams 374
NE 91 Yummy 362
95 92 Jerry Sprunger 357
87 93 Time 346
99 94 We Back 339
100 95 Tip Toe 336
89 96 Goodbyes 332
102 97 Tusa 320
92 98 Like It's Christmas 311
93 99 We Were 311
94 100 Candy 306
96 101 Follow God 297
97 102 Here Comes Santa Claus 291
105 103 Make No Sense 274
101 104 One Thing Right 273
108 105 Best on Earth 271
103 106 6 Kiss 238
104 107 all the good girls go to hell 233
117 108 homecoming queen? 218
106 109 It's Beginning to Look A Lot Like Christmas 209
107 110 La Cancion 208

[sirskimask]

Damn rule change messing with my predictions

Potential Repeats From The 2019 Year-End List

Locked:
Circles
Someone You Loved

Very Likely
No Guidance
Senorita

Likely
Truth Hurts
Panini
Trampoline

Possible
Only Human
I Don't Care
bad guy

Unlikely
Sucker
Talk
Old Town Road

Very Unlikely
Beautiful People
Suge

Out: Ran$om (will not repeat), Baby (will not repeat)

[tanooki]

Doing a readjustment of my YE formula, I'll post the new results soon.

[tanooki]

So, the formula change is complete.

SPOILER: Click to show

{Year End List Week 9 Update}Old New SONG POINTS
1 1 Circles 2,644
2 2 Someone You Loved 2,266
3 3 Memories 2,159
4 4 Good As Hell 2,077
5 5 Roxanne 2,059
6 6 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1,852
8 7 10,000 Hours 1,824
7 8 Lose You to Love Me 1,814
9 9 Dance Monkey 1,783
10 10 Senorita 1,679
11 11 No Guidance 1,628
13 12 Ballin' 1,561
12 13 BOP 1,556
14 14 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 1,552
15 15 Panini 1,516
16 16 Truth Hurts 1,515
17 17 bad guy 1,472
18 18 Trampoline 1,422
20 19 Bandit 1,347
21 20 Hot 1,337
19 21 Rockin Around the Christmas Tree 1,309
22 22 Woah 1,297
24 23 everything I wanted 1,272
25 24 Old Town Road 1,256
27 25 One Man Band 1,214
26 26 Heartless 1,193
28 27 Lover 1,189
29 28 Even Though I'm Leaving 1,183
23 29 The Box 1,165
31 30 Don't Start Now 1,125
32 31 Only Human 1,109
35 32 On Chill 1,096
34 33 Ran$om 1,076
30 34 A Holly Jolly Christmas 1,051
37 35 Graveyard 997
36 36 hot girl bummer 996
33 37 Jingle Bell Rock 994
39 38 The Bones 941
40 39 Playing Games 941
42 40 Heat 928
38 41 Beautiful People 924
43 42 Falling 910
44 43 Juicy 879
41 44 It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year 850
45 45 What If I Never Get Over You 833
47 46 VIBEZ 812
48 47 Heart on Ice 799
46 48 I Don't Care 792
49 49 Take What You Want 785
50 50 Remember You Young 777
59 51 Last Christmas 764
52 52 Ridin Roads 760
53 53 Camelot 757
54 54 Heartache Medication 741
51 55 Talk 733
55 56 Leave Em Alone 731
56 57 Kinfolks 725
57 58 223's 706
58 59 Blinding Lights 674
60 60 Adore You 653
63 61 Into the Unknown 652
65 62 Suicidal 644
66 63 Nice to Meet Ya 632
67 64 Enemies 616
62 65 Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow 612
61 66 Futsal Shuffle 2020 609
64 67 Feliz Navidad 597
69 68 Baby 583
68 69 The Christmas Song 579
70 70 Suge 564
72 71 No Idea 558
71 72 Easy 551
73 73 Vete 543
77 74 Hate Me 538
74 75 Sucker 526
79 76 Slow Dancing in the Dark 523
80 77 Death 518
81 78 Watermelon Sugar 517
76 79 Sleigh Ride 516
75 80 Homesick 515
78 81 Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer 512
82 82 Baby Sitter 501
83 83 Happy Holiday/The Holiday Season 484
85 84 How Do You Sleep? 478
86 85 Start Wit Me 475
87 86 Prayed For You 473
84 87 Yellow Hearts 471
89 88 My Oh My 455
88 89 RITMO 445
92 90 Jerry Sprunger 420
93 91 Time 412
94 92 We Back 410
95 93 Tip Toe 401
90 94 Lucid Dreams 392
96 95 Goodbyes 386
97 96 Tusa 374
98 97 Like It's Christmas 374
99 98 We Were 372
91 99 Yummy 362
101 100 Follow God 350
100 101 Candy 347
102 102 Here Comes Santa Claus 340
104 103 One Thing Right 324
103 104 Make No Sense 319
105 105 Best on Earth 311
107 106 all the good girls go to hell 289
106 107 6 Kiss 283
108 108 homecoming queen? 258
109 109 It's Beginning to Look A Lot Like Christmas 242
110 110 La Cancion 239
111 111 Money in the Grave 234
114 112 Slide 225
112 113 OUT WEST 220
113 114 Dancing With a Stranger 218
115 115 South of the Border 217
116 116 Hot Girl Summer 216
119 117 Tip of My Tongue 215
117 118 Good Vibes 213
118 119 High Fashion 208
120 120 Peta 202
121 121 Lonely Child 199
122 122 Let Me Know (I Wonder Why Freestyle) 197
123 123 Show Yourself 189
124 124 Lalala 182
125 125 GANG GANG 181
127 126 Liar 173
128 127 HAD ENOUGH 172
130 128 Every Little Thing 169
131 129 TOES 167
129 130 Reply 166
126 131 Cuban Links 163
134 132 I Hope 161
133 133 Who Needs Love 160
135 134 Lights Up 159
132 135 None of Your Concern 156
136 136 Stuck in a Dream 156
137 137 WHAT TO DO 144
141 138 I Don't Know About You 143
138 139 Christmas (Baby Please Come Home 140
139 140 Legends 140
142 141 What She Wants Tonight 139
143 142 Make Me Want To 138
140 143 Underneath the Tree 136
144 144 More Hearts than Mine 130
145 145 I Wish Grandpas Never Died 127
146 146 Run Rudolph Run 126
147 147 Home For the Holidays 124
149 148 Self Control 120
148 149 Hot Shower 119
151 150 Blue Christmas 118
156 151 White Christmas 114
150 152 Heartless (Diplo) 113
157 153 Jingle Bells 112
152 154 July 109
158 155 Baby It's Cold Outside 108
153 156 Slow Dancing in a Parking Lot 104
154 157 China 103
155 158 Into the Unknown (Panic!) 103
160 159 You're a Mean One Mr Grinch 101
159 160 Robbery 101
161 161 My Type 100
162 162 Christmas Tree Farm 91
163 163 U Played 90
164 164 Falling (Harry Styles) 88
165 165 Loyal 87
166 166 The Take 84
167 167 Dirty Iyanna 83
168 168 GATTI 81
169 169 Happy Xmas (War Is Over) 81
170 170 SUGAR 80
171 171 Better Together 78
172 172 Nobody But You 71
173 173 Love Me More 69
175 174 It All Comes Out in a Wash 68
174 175 Famous Hoes 67
177 176 Hate Me (Trippie Redd) 66
176 177 Cherry 66
178 178 bad vibes forever 65
180 179 Golden 64
182 180 Empty 63
179 181 Beauty in the Benz 63
181 182 Look At Her Now 63
185 183 Up All Night 61
184 184 Hot Now 61
187 185 All I Want 60
183 186 F.N. 60
186 187 Show Me Love 59
188 188 Valentino 58
190 189 I Hope You're Happy Now 57
189 190 What Happens in a Small Town 57
192 191 20/20 56
193 192 Say So 55
195 193 Loco Contigo 55
191 194 Living 55
194 195 Come Thru 54
196 196 Lord Above 53
197 197 Somebody 53
202 198 ORANGE SODA 52
198 199 Big Stepper 52
203 200 All Dat 51
201 201 She 51
199 202 Hell Right 51
200 203 Immortal 50

SPOILER: Click to show

{Old Formula}1 - 10: real points
11. 200
12. 190
13. 180
14. 175
15. 170
16. 165
17. 160
18. 155
19. 150
20. 140
21. 138
22. 136
23. 134
24. 132
25. 130
26. 128
27. 126
28. 124
29. 122
30. 120
31. 118
32. 116
33. 114
34. 112
35. 110
36. 108
37. 106
38. 104
39. 102
40. 100
41. 98
42. 96
43. 94
44. 92
45. 90
46. 89
47. 88
48. 87
49. 86
50. 85
51. 84
52. 83
53. 82
54. 81
55. 80
56. 79
57. 78
58. 77
59. 76
60. 75
61. 74
62. 73
63. 72
64. 71
65. 70
66. 69
67. 68
68. 67
69. 66
70. 65
71. 64
72. 63
73. 62
74. 61
75. 60
76. 59
77. 59
78. 58
79. 58
80. 57
81. 57
82. 56
83. 56
84. 55
85. 55
86. 54
87. 54
88. 53
89. 53
90. 52
91. 52
92. 51
93. 51
94. 50
95. 50
96. 49
97. 49
98. 48
99. 48
100. 48

SPOILER: Click to show

{New Formula}1-10: real points
11. 200
12. 195
13. 190
14. 185
15. 180
16. 175
17. 170
18. 165
19. 160
20. 158
21. 156
22. 154
23. 152
24. 150
25. 148
26. 146
27. 144
28. 142
29. 140
30. 138
31. 136
32. 134
33. 132
34. 130
35. 128
36. 126
37. 124
38. 122
39. 120
40. 118
41. 116
42. 114
43. 112
44. 110
45. 108
46. 106
47. 104
48. 102
49. 101
50. 100
51. 99
52. 98
53. 97
54. 96
55. 95
56. 94
57. 93
58. 92
59. 91
60. 90
61. 89
62. 88
63. 87
64. 86
65. 85
66. 84
67. 83
68. 82
69. 81
70. 80
71. 79
72. 78
73. 77
74. 76
75. 75
76. 74
77. 73
78. 72
79. 71
80. 70
81. 69
82. 68
83. 67
84. 66
85. 65
86. 64
87. 63
88. 62
89. 61
90. 60
91. 59
92. 58
93. 57
94. 56
95. 55
96. 54
97. 53
98. 52
99. 51
100. 50

[GPMB]

hope something can pass Someone You Loved for #2 soon (as long as it isn’t Memories, which is worse)

[dremolus - solarpunk]

I feel that The Box will be end up #3 and Circles #2, both to be surpassed by an unknown song as of now.

[Deleted]

Man, I definitely wasn't expecting "Old Town Road" to be hit so hard by the new formula change. I hope it manages to stick around long enough to make the Year-End, but it seems pretty unlikely now. Also, "Don't Start Now" currently seems to be guaranteed to make it eventually, so I'll try my best to focus on the silver lining.

[lukulele]

Jan 15, 2020 14:09:37 GMT -5 @aprettyoddmusicbox said:

Man, I definitely wasn't expecting "Old Town Road" to be hit so hard by the new formula change. I hope it manages to stick around long enough to make the Year-End, but it seems pretty unlikely now. Also, "Don't Start Now" currently seems to be guaranteed to make it eventually, so I'll try my best to focus on the silver lining.

How has the formula changed

[Deleted]

Jan 16, 2020 18:23:39 GMT -5 lukulele said:

Jan 15, 2020 14:09:37 GMT -5 @aprettyoddmusicbox said:

Man, I definitely wasn't expecting "Old Town Road" to be hit so hard by the new formula change. I hope it manages to stick around long enough to make the Year-End, but it seems pretty unlikely now. Also, "Don't Start Now" currently seems to be guaranteed to make it eventually, so I'll try my best to focus on the silver lining.

How has the formula changed

Short clips of songs on YouTube videos no longer count towards the Hot 100

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Please stop saying The Box is locked for the year-end #1 spot. This time last year, everyone was sure that Without Me or Sunflower would be the number one song of the year. Let's wait a few months and see how the Box has fared.

[brandon]

Week 9

Wow. To think we're 9 weeks into the charting year already... Insert a long debate with myself about Yummy being in the predictions. The thing is, I really think it will drop down to, maybe the 20's/30's, and then be completely off the charts within 5 weeks, but I must include it as to not include any personal bias. And this is the case for any song that debuts in the top 7, due to points. Can't be helped...

Locked: 10000 Hours, Lose You To Love Me
Expected To Be Locked Next Week: None

SPOILER: Click to show

{Hot 100 Week 9 Bubbling Under/Predictions}

[mikerivera]

Is anyone doing their projections based on real points, or are all of these purely inverse?

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^I think anybody trying to do the former would have a hard time including this week onward until they figured out how to work in the YT formula change and get decent estimates there of its different components.