2020 Billboard Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (Year 8)

[atg]

I really hope someone you loved doesn’t finish in the top 10

[mikerivera]

Also, while I won't be very active this year (preparing for grad school), I took some time to estimate what the 2019 year end would look like if the chart period ran from January to December (as opposed to starting in mid-November). I used the corrected year end projection combined with points predictions from the November and December 2018 and 2019 charting periods. 

* means it either made the 2018 year end or would have been projected to make it under this exercise. 

Rank	Song	Artist	Peak	Top 10	Hot 100	Points
1	Old Town Road	Lil Nas X ft. Billy Ray Cyrus	#1 (19 weeks)	26	42	1,777,830
2	Sunflower	Post Malone & Swae Lee	#1	30	44	1,163,140
3	Bad Guy	Billie Eilish	#1	30	38	1,029,160
4	Without Me*	Halsey	#1 (2 weeks)	21	41	982,630
5	Wow	Post Malone	#2	24	44	917,270
6	Talk	Khalid	#3	19	43	896,760
7	7 Rings	Ariana Grande	#1 (8 weeks)	16	33	851,400
8	Truth Hurts	Lizzo	#1 (7 weeks)	22	33	850,330
9	Sucker	Jonas Brothers	#1	22	38	830,630
10	Señorita	Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello	#1	23	26	785,070
11	I Don't Care	Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber	#2	17	30	721,620
12	Happier*	Marshmello & Bastille	#2	16	34	720,160
13	Dancing with a Stranger	Sam Smith & Normani	#7	8	45	714,380
14	No Guidance	Chris Brown ft. Drake	#5	23	28	655,250
15	Someone You Loved	Lewis Capaldi	#1 (3 weeks)	15	32	650,420
16	High Hopes*	Panic! At the Disco	#4	9	32	642,810
17	SICKO MODE*	Travis Scott	#3	12	32	629,180
18	Ran$om	Lil Tecca	#4	13	29	569,340
19	Suge	DaBaby	#7	7	35	553,660
20	Going Bad	Meek Mill ft. Drake	#10	1	34	550,790
21	Sweet But Psycho	Ava Max	#10	3	34	537,150
22	Shallow	Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper	#1	5	33	532,800
23	Eastside*	Benny Blanco, Halsey & Khalid	#9	2	29	530,830
24	Thank U, Next*	Ariana Grande	#1	10	21	511,330
25	MIDDLE CHILD	J. Cole	#4	10	27	508,720
26	Better	Khalid	#8	1	34	507,050
27	Panini	Lil Nas X	#5	9	26	472,270
28	Circles	Post Malone	#1 (2 weeks)	16	16	444,380
29	Goodbyes	Post Malone	#3	12	21	442,690
30	If I Can't Have You	Shawn Mendes	#2	4	23	421,650
31	Beautiful People	Ed Sheeran & Khalid	#13		24	414,650
32	Girls Like You*	Maroon 5 ft. Cardi B	#7	6	21	409,590
33	Money in the Grave	Drake ft. Rick Ross	#7	2	23	406,050
34	Break Up With Your  Girlfriend, I'm Bored	Ariana Grande	#2	2	20	376,720
35	Please Me	Cardi B & Bruno Mars	#3	8	20	373,900
36	You Need to Calm Down	Taylor Swift	#2	2	21	368,500
37	Look Back At It	A Boogie wit da Hoodie	#27		29	355,930
38	A Lot	21 Savage	#12		23	352,790
39	Me!	Taylor Swift ft. Brendon Urie	#2	4	20	347,820
40	Drip Too Hard*	Lil Baby & Gunna	#8	4	21	344,110
41	Trampoline	SHAED	#13		29	340,030
42	Pop Out	Polo G ft. Lil Tjay	#11		27	335,850
43	Only Human	Jonas Brothers	#18		27	328,770
44	Thotiana	Blueface	#8	2	20	328,010
45	Whiskey Glasses	Morgan Wallen	#17		27	318,090
46	God's Country	Blake Shelton	#17		23	310,280
47	Speechless	Dan+Shay	#24		25	309,590
48	Pure Water	Mustard ft. Migos	#23		25	306,000
49	The Git Up	Blanco Brown	#14		20	303,900
50	Beautiful Crazy	Luke Combs	#21		25	298,090
51	Good as Hell	Lizzo	#3	8	17	294,170
52	Hey Look Ma, I Made It	Panic! At the Disco	#16		22	292,600
53	Envy Me	Calboy	#31		26	289,300
54	Money	Cardi B	#13		17	284,620
55	Better Now*	Post Malone	#10	1	18	270,700
56	Beer Never Broke My Heart	Luke Combs	#21		21	269,930
57	YoungBlood*	5 Seconds of Summer	#14		19	268,890
58	The London	Young Thug, J. Cole & Travis Scott	#12		20	268,590
59	Close to Me	Ellie Goulding & Diplo ft.  Swae Lee	#24		20	265,910
60	Murder on my Mind	YNW Melly	#14		20	263,880
61	Con Calma	Daddy Yankee & Katy Perry ft. Snow	#22		25	262,190
62	Be Alright	Dean Lewis	#23		21	262,160
63	Memories	Maroon 5	#4	7	13	257,430
64	Act Up	City Girls	#26		21	255,740
65	Baby	Lil Baby & DaBaby	#21		20	255,390
66	Zeze*	Kodak Black ft. Offset & Travis Scott	#9	3	15	253,540
67	How Do You Sleep	Sam Smith	#24		20	248,400
68	You Say	Lauren Daigle	#29		20	246,010
69	Mía	Bad Bunny ft. Drake	#19		17	245,270
70	Ballin'	Mustard ft. Roddy Ricch	#14		22	242,700
71	My Type	Saweetie	#21		20	239,290
72	Lucid Dreams*	Juice WRLD	#8	1	16	237,100
73	Bury a Friend	Billie Eilish	#14		20	237,010
74	Baby Shark	Pinkfong	#32		20	233,990
75	10,000 Hours	Dan+Shay ft. Justin Bieber	#4	7	11	231,390
76	Hot	Young Thug ft. Gunna	#11		18	230,610
77	Worth It	YK Osiris	#48		25	228,740
78	Highest in the Room	Travis Scott	#1	3	11	227,510
79	Lover	Taylor Swift	#10	1	18	227,210
80	Knockin' Boots	Luke Bryan	#31		22	223,740
81	On Chill	Wale ft. Jeremih	#22		19	221,090
82	One Thing Right	Marshmello ft. Kane Brown	#36		23	214,680
83	Rumor	Lee Brice	#25		20	209,580
84	Wake Up in the Sky*	Gucci Mane, Bruno Mars & Kodak Black	#12		12	208,490
85	Swervin'	A Boogie wit da Hoodie ft. 6ix9ine	#38		20	207,800
86	When the Party's Over	Billie Eilish	#29		24	205,580
87	Taki Taki*	DJ Snake ft. Ozuna, Cardi B & Selena Gomez	#18		14	205,280
88	Look What God Gave Her	Thomas Rhett	#32		20	203,640
89	Good as You	Kane Brown	#36		20	201,500
90	Hot Girl Summer	Megan Thee Stallion ft. Nicki Minaj & Ty Dolla $ign	#11		16	201,340
91	Clout	Offset ft. Cardi B	#39		20	199,930
92	Lose You to Love Me	Selena Gomez	#1	6	9	195,750
93	Mo Bamba*	Sheck Wes	#14		11	190,580
94	All I Want For Christmas is You	Mariah Carey	#1 (2 weeks)	4	7	190,390
95	Cash S**t	Megan Thee Stallion ft. DaBaby	#36		20	187,020
96	Shotta Flow	NLE Choppa	#36		20	185,900
97	Close Friends	Lil Baby	#47		22	185,890
98	Bandit	Juice WRLD & YoungBoy Never Broke Again	#10	1	11	185,300
99	Robbery	Juice WRLD	#27		19	181,740
100	Talk You Out of It	Florida Georgia Line	#57		26	180,280

[rainie]

Jan 17, 2020 21:46:42 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Please stop saying The Box is locked for the year-end #1 spot. This time last year, everyone was sure that Without Me or Sunflower would be the number one song of the year. Let's wait a few months and see how the Box has fared.

i mean sure, but i don't think a single person on this thread has said that?? stop being hyperbolic

[GPMB]

looks like Lover is gonna miss the year end unfortunately

[Deleted]

Jan 18, 2020 22:10:52 GMT -5 GPMB said:

looks like Lover is gonna miss the year end unfortunately

If Billboard didn’t greatly screw up when the hell the end of the chart year is this wouldn’t have happened 😔

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jan 18, 2020 19:14:31 GMT -5 rainie said:

Jan 17, 2020 21:46:42 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Please stop saying The Box is locked for the year-end #1 spot. This time last year, everyone was sure that Without Me or Sunflower would be the number one song of the year. Let's wait a few months and see how the Box has fared.

i mean sure, but i don't think a single person on this thread has said that?? stop being hyperbolic

Not on this thread but in the weekly threads, i've seen it

[Deleted]

Since so many people seem to give their opinions on Someone You Loved, I hope it finishes at a high spot just to spite all of you.

[korbel16]

Jan 19, 2020 7:29:12 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Since so many people seem to give their opinions on Someone You Loved, I hope it finishes at a high spot just to spite all of you.

ikr haha it’s not that bad tbh

[weirdo]

tbh, while i hate SYL a LOT!, it will probably finish YE Top 10. Circles will probably be 2nd or 3rd but i think something else could take the #1 in the near future

[rockgolf]

Just in time to be obsolete tomorrow, here's my estimation of the current rankings for the Billboard Hot 100 2020 year-end list, inclusive of the January 18, 2020 chart.

The Box is obviously quickly climbing, but because most of what's above it is still on the charts, not as fast as I'd expect. For those interested, Yummy enters at #102 and should be in the top 100 next week.

[Deleted]

Jan 18, 2020 14:52:04 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Also, while I won't be very active this year (preparing for grad school), I took some time to estimate what the 2019 year end would look like if the chart period ran from January to December (as opposed to starting in mid-November). I used the corrected year end projection combined with points predictions from the November and December 2018 and 2019 charting periods. 

* means it either made the 2018 year end or would have been projected to make it under this exercise. 

Great initiative to make this list, congratulations.

Man, I don't know how I feel about this scenario... "Señorita" making the Year-End top 10..."No Guidance" above "High Hopes"..."Memories" making it in the 60s, but hey, at least "Lover" makes it to the Year-End like it so dearly deserves, right? (...right? 😬)

It does make more sense having it that way, though, to be honest. Less chance of having songs undeservedly getting caught between years too. Have you made note of which songs would have missed the Year-End but actually made it on the official list?

(Oh, "Ballin" and "On Chill" would make it as well, the latter which seems to be nearly guaranteed to get caught between years. This list is not that bad, after all)

[mikerivera]

The songs that would have missed in this scenario that made the official year end were:

Too weak:
-Eyes on You
-Boyfriend
-Walk Me Home
-All to Myself

Songs that made the 2018 year end
-Breathin
-Beautiful
-I Like It
-Love Lies
-Tequila
-Trip

Caught between years
-Leave Me Alone

[mikerivera]

For what it’s worth, I have every year all the way up through 2014 accounted for in this scenario (2013 and everything before it is tough, because Billboard didn’t count YouTube until March 2013, so the points were inherently weaker). If y’all want, I can post what those previous year ends under this scenario. I know it’s not what this thread is about, but hey, it’s at least interesting.

[fishingfor8]

Jan 19, 2020 17:42:52 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

For what it’s worth, I have every year all the way up through 2014 accounted for in this scenario (2013 and everything before it is tough, because Billboard didn’t count YouTube until March 2013, so the points were inherently weaker). If y’all want, I can post what those previous year ends under this scenario. I know it’s not what this thread is about, but hey, it’s at least interesting.

Maybe get a whole new thread for it? I'd love to see the numbers either way.

[GPMB]

this is unrelated to the 2020 year end but does anyone else find it funny how River by Eminem and Ed Sheeran, Never Really Over by Katy Perry, and boyfriend by Ariana Grande all had basically the exact same chart run

[weirdo]

Jan 19, 2020 22:59:01 GMT -5 fishingfor8 said:

Jan 19, 2020 17:42:52 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

For what it’s worth, I have every year all the way up through 2014 accounted for in this scenario (2013 and everything before it is tough, because Billboard didn’t count YouTube until March 2013, so the points were inherently weaker). If y’all want, I can post what those previous year ends under this scenario. I know it’s not what this thread is about, but hey, it’s at least interesting.

Maybe get a whole new thread for it? I'd love to see the numbers either way.

Agreed. Definitely should get its own thread but i am really cutious what thr charts would be like with this

[Deleted]

I am not too sure about this prediction but I feel the triple album bomb next week could kill a bunch of songs' chances of making the YE.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jan 20, 2020 6:09:54 GMT -5 @delphox said:

I am not too sure about this prediction but I feel the triple album bomb next week could kill a bunch of songs' chances of making the YE.

Even though this likely means Lover will be gone, if it takes out I Don't Care and Sucker I'm fine.

[lights]

Jan 20, 2020 6:09:54 GMT -5 @delphox said:

I am not too sure about this prediction but I feel the triple album bomb next week could kill a bunch of songs' chances of making the YE.

I agree although I think we're looking at a double album bomb rather than triple.

[rockgolf]

Jan 18, 2020 14:52:04 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Also, while I won't be very active this year (preparing for grad school), I took some time to estimate what the 2019 year end would look like if the chart period ran from January to December (as opposed to starting in mid-November). I used the corrected year end projection combined with points predictions from the November and December 2018 and 2019 charting periods. 

* means it either made the 2018 year end or would have been projected to make it under this exercise. 

Very interesting. I've done something similar in the "complete" thread. The difference is I include the complete chart run of songs that peaked in each year, including points from both the year before and the year following for songs that peaked first in a calendar year.

[atg]

Jan 20, 2020 7:42:21 GMT -5 lights said:

Jan 20, 2020 6:09:54 GMT -5 @delphox said:

I am not too sure about this prediction but I feel the triple album bomb next week could kill a bunch of songs' chances of making the YE.

I agree although I think we're looking at a double album bomb rather than triple.

I feel like it’s double main album bomb and a little mini one for the third one

[iggyamo]

Jan 20, 2020 10:50:41 GMT -5 atg said:

Jan 20, 2020 7:42:21 GMT -5 lights said:

I agree although I think we're looking at a double album bomb rather than triple.

I feel like it’s double main album bomb and a little mini one for the third one

I don’t think we’ll see any re-entries or new entries from Halsey, just gains for Graveyard and YSBS. I don’t really think that even counts as an album bomb in any capacity

[mikerivera]

I created a thread for the year ends that take place under the different charting window. Here's the link pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/191238/january-december-year-ends?page=1&scrollTo=7274814

[Deleted]

Jan 20, 2020 6:26:09 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Jan 20, 2020 6:09:54 GMT -5 @delphox said:

I am not too sure about this prediction but I feel the triple album bomb next week could kill a bunch of songs' chances of making the YE.

Even though this likely means Lover will be gone, if it takes out I Don't Care and Sucker I'm fine.

"Lover", "On Chill", and potentially "Take What You Want" (by decreasing its chances to ever return to the top 50). 😂

However, we might be getting rid of "Heat", and indeed, all these spring/summer 2019 leftovers that should have been gone ages ago.

[Deleted]

Jan 21, 2020 7:13:48 GMT -5 @aprettyoddmusicbox said:

Jan 20, 2020 6:26:09 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Even though this likely means Lover will be gone, if it takes out I Don't Care and Sucker I'm fine.

"Lover", "On Chill", and potentially "Take What You Want" (by decreasing its chances to ever return to the top 50). 😂

However, we might be getting rid of "Heat", and indeed, all these spring/summer 2019 leftovers that should have been gone ages ago.

Take What You Want will not get kicked out unless it drops under 100 because it will be on its 20th week on the week of the album bombs.

Lover and On Chill look likely to go recurrent that week but if the album bombs don't make a lot of impact they could somehow stay.

2019 leftovers like Talk, Beautiful People, Old Town Road and Suge are the ones I'd say would be kicked out (if they haven't already this week).

[spicymapping]

I did a calculation of all songs that could, theoretically, get caught between years. (ie: charted in both years, didn't make last year's year end, not currently locked, still charting, not christmas). I'll update it as we go on but here it is for now. 16k is the cutoff for inclusion (where it was last year)

Edited to this week.

Probably safe:

- Highest In The Room
- Hot
- Bandit
- Hot Girl Bummer

Probably will get caught:

- Lover
- On Chill
- One Man Band
- Even Though I'm Leaving
- Playing Games
- Take What You Want
- Heat
- Graveyard
- 223's
- Camelot

Already caught:

- Time
- Prayed For You
- I Don't Know About You

Not yet at threshold:

- The Bones
- What If I Never Get Over You
- VIBEZ
- Remember You Young
- Don't Start Now
- Heartache Medication
- Leave Em Alone
- Juicy
- Kinfolks
- Nice To Meet Ya
- Ridin' Roads
- Make No Sense
- Start Wit Me
- homecoming queen?
- South of the Border
- Toes
- What She Wants Tonight
- All Dat

[spicymapping]

let's go hot girl bummer wooo

TL, DR:
Locked: No Guidance, Ballin', Bop
Added: Hot Girl Bummer, The Bones, Graveyard

1. Circles (=)
2. Someone You Loved (=)
3. Memories (=)
4. Good As Hell (=)
5. Roxanne (=)
6. Lose You To Love Me (=)
7. 10,000 Hours (=)
8. Dance Monkey (+2)
9. Señorita (=)
10. No Guidance (+1)
11. All I Want For Christmas Is You (-3)
12. Ballin' (=)
13. Bop (=)

PROJECTED CUTOFF - 17K POINTS

14. Highest In The Room (+1) WA: 1
15. Truth Hurts (-1) WA: 1
16. Panini (=) WA: 1
17. Bad Guy (=) WA: 2
18. Trampoline (=) WA: 1
19. The Box (+10) WA: 1
20. Hot (=) WA: 3
21. Bandit (-2) WA: 3
22. Woah (-1) WA: 2 
23. Everything I Wanted (=) WA: 2
24. Heartless (=) WA: 2
25. One Man Band (+1) WA: 4
26. Don't Start Now (+4) WA: 3
27. Even Though I'm Leaving (+1) WA: 4
28. Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree (-6)
29. Lover (-2) WA: 5
30. Old Town Road (-5)
31. Only Human (=) WA: 5
32. On Chill (=) WA: 6
33. Hot Girl Bummer (NEW) WA: 5
34. The Bones (NEW) WA: 5
35. Graveyard (NEW) WA: 8
36. Ransom (-3)

TRACKING CUTOFF - 10K POINTS

[tanooki]

Week 10 - 1/25/20

LW TW SONG Points
1 1 Circles 2,958
2 2 Someone You Loved 2,509
3 3 Memories 2,431
5 4 Roxanne 2,290
4 5 Good As Hell 2,277
8 6 Lose You to Love Me 2,075
7 7 10,000 Hours 2,059
9 8 Dance Monkey 2,017
6 9 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1,852
10 10 Senorita 1,829
11 11 No Guidance 1,788
12 12 Ballin' 1,751
13 13 BOP 1,751
14 14 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 1,732
--LOCKED CUTOFF: 1700 POINTS--
29 15 The Box 1,666
15 16 Panini 1,658
16 17 Truth Hurts 1,647
17 18 bad guy 1,590
18 19 Trampoline 1,580
19 20 Bandit 1,475
20 21 Hot 1,473
22 22 Woah 1,453
23 23 everything I wanted 1,426
26 24 Heartless 1,358
25 25 One Man Band 1,340
30 26 Don't Start Now 1,310
21 27 Rockin Around the Christmas Tree 1,309
28 28 Even Though I'm Leaving 1,307
27 29 Lover 1,289
24 30 Old Town Road 1,256
31 31 Only Human 1,239
32 32 On Chill 1,202
36 33 hot girl bummer 1,144
38 34 The Bones 1,093
35 35 Graveyard 1,089
33 36 Ran$om 1,076
34 37 A Holly Jolly Christmas 1,051
39 38 Playing Games 1,037
42 39 Falling 1,026
40 40 Heat 1,019
37 41 Jingle Bell Rock 994
43 42 Juicy 987
45 43 What If I Never Get Over You 934
41 44 Beautiful People 924
48 45 I Don't Care 914
46 46 VIBEZ 905
47 47 Heart on Ice 888
49 48 Take What You Want 865
52 49 Ridin Roads 858
44 50 It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year 850
50 51 Remember You Young 847
54 52 Heartache Medication 845
55 53 Talk 835
53 54 Camelot 829
57 55 Kinfolks 824
59 56 Blinding Lights 808
60 57 Adore You 799
56 58 Leave Em Alone 796
51 59 Last Christmas 764
62 60 Suicidal 764
58 61 223's 758
66 62 Futsal Shuffle 2020 721
61 63 Into the Unknown 712
63 64 Nice to Meet Ya 687
71 65 No Idea 645
75 66 Sucker 640
72 67 Easy 620
64 68 Enemies 616
65 69 Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow 612
80 70 Homesick 605
73 71 Vete 602
67 72 Feliz Navidad 597
99 73 Yummy 588
68 74 Baby 583
69 75 The Christmas Song 579
78 76 Watermelon Sugar 573
88 77 My Oh My 565
70 78 Suge 564
85 79 Start Wit Me 563
74 80 Hate Me 538
89 81 RITMO 528
76 82 Slow Dancing in the Dark 523
77 83 Death 518
79 84 Sleigh Ride 516
81 85 Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer 512
82 86 Baby Sitter 501
92 87 We Back 488
83 88 Happy Holiday/The Holiday Season 484
90 89 Jerry Sprunger 482
84 90 How Do You Sleep? 478
86 91 Prayed For You 473
87 92 Yellow Hearts 471
93 93 Tip Toe 469
96 94 Tusa 455
91 95 Time 412
105 96 Best on Earth 393
94 97 Lucid Dreams 392
104 98 Make No Sense 390
95 99 Goodbyes 386
97 100 Like It's Christmas 374
98 101 We Were 372
NE 102 Life Is Good 362
119 103 High Fashion 352
100 104 Follow God 350
101 105 Candy 347
102 106 Here Comes Santa Claus 340
103 107 One Thing Right 324
108 108 homecoming queen? 315
115 109 South of the Border 311
113 110 OUT WEST 305
NE 134 Sum 2 Prove 175
NE 137 Good News 170
NE 152 You should be sad 140
NE 153 Rare 138

[tuna]

quick predictions:

The Box finishes in the top 10 of the year, but not #1

Blinding Lights in the top 20 of the year, also not #1 anywhere except music critics' lists

Juicy barely makes the y/e

[Deleted]

Jan 22, 2020 10:51:31 GMT -5 tuna said:

Blinding Lights in the top 20 of the year, also not #1 anywhere except music critics' lists

lmao