2020 Billboard Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (Year 8)

[spicymapping]

The difference is Manic should push it into the top 20 and it’s also better on streaming than Beautiful was so I think it should be pretty good.

[Deleted]

Here's week 5 of my 2020 year end predictions. I expect Only Human and Beautiful People to drop out next week, both will comfortably miss.

1 Circles 1430
2 Someone You Loved 1318
3 Good As Hell 1186
4 Memories 1162
5 Lose You To Love Me 1033
6 Roxanne 1025
7 Senorita 993
8 All I Want For Christmas Is You 982
9 10,000 Hours 972
10 No Guidance 952
11 Truth Hurts 914
12 Panini 911
13 Dance Monkey 882
14 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 871
15 Bad Guy 869
16 Trampoline 848
17 Ballin' 820
18 BOP 814
19 Woah 762
20 Hot 756
21 Lover 737
22 Bandit 736
23 Ran$om 723
24 Even Though I'm Leaving 714
25 One Man Band 713
26 Only Human 710
27 Beautiful People 706
28 Old Town Road 705
29 Everything I Wanted 698
30 On Chill 654
31 Graveyard 610
32 Heartless 608
33 Playing Games 605
34 Don't Start Now 603
35 Heat 589
36 Hot Girl Bummer 572
37 Juicy 532
38 The Bones 532
39 Take What You Want 503
40 Falling 449
41 Into The Unknown 331
42 Blinding Lights 309
43 Vete 306
44 Adore You 136

[lights]

Dec 16, 2019 14:43:22 GMT -5 atg said:

Is AIWFCIY confirmed to make the year end now

It should be very very close to last year's cutoff. Wouldn't want to call it.

[atg]

Dec 17, 2019 7:07:44 GMT -5 lights said:

Dec 16, 2019 14:43:22 GMT -5 atg said:

Is AIWFCIY confirmed to make the year end now

It should be very very close to last year's cutoff. Wouldn't want to call it.

It charted all weeks so far for 2020 and it might be #1 for 3 weeks so it maybe will make it. It’s 3rd week should be real huge tho

[spicymapping]

I want to be original but We Back is literally the only good intro song on the charts cut me some slack

TL, DR: we're moving up in the world

Locked: None
Unlocked: Circles
Added: Lose You To Love Me, Señorita, All I Want For Christmas Is You, Roxanne, 10,000 Hours, No Guidance

PREDICTED CUTOFF - 17,000 POINTS

1. Circles (=)
2. Someone You Loved (=)
3. Good As Hell (=)
4. Memories (=)
5. Lose You To Love Me (NEW)
6. Señorita (NEW)
7. All I Want For Christmas Is You (NEW)
8. Roxanne (NEW)
9. 10,000 Hours (NEW)
10. No Guidance (NEW)

TRACKING CUTOFF - 10,000 POINTS

and yes, i increased my formula by a magnitude of 10 purely because 17k sounds much cooler than 17 hundred. fight me.

[nathanalbright]

Why not just increase it by a multitude of 10 again and then you'll be close to the actual points involved?

[tanooki]

12/21 - Week 5

1. Circles 1430
2. Someone You Loved 1313
3. Good As Hell 1177
4. Memories 1148
5. Lose You to Love Me 1019
6. Roxanne 1018
7. All I Want For Christmas Is You 963
8. Senorita 962
9. 10,000 Hours 962
10. No Guidance 920
11. Dance Monkey 880
12. Panini 873
13. Truth Hurts 868
14. HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 805
15. BOP 803
16. Trampoline 791
17. bad guy 791
18. Ballin' 755
19. Woah 695
20. Hot 683
21. Bandit 670
22. Lover 664
23. Even Though I'm Leaving 647
24. Ran$om 642
25. Old Town Road 634
26. everything I wanted 633
27. One Man Band 630
28. Beautiful People 623
29. Only Human 623
30. Rockin Around the Christmas Tree 593
31. Heartless 571
32. On Chill 564
33. Graveyard 487
34. Don't Start Now 483
35. Playing Games 481
36. Heat 477
37. A Holly Jolly Christmas 452
38. I Don't Care 447
39. hot girl bummer 444
40. Talk 432
41. Juicy 413
42. The Bones 413
43. Baby 410
44. How Do You Sleep? 409
45. Take What You Want 392
46. Jingle Bell Rock 392
47. Heart on Ice 385
48. Remember You Young 382
49. What If I Never Get Over You 376
50. VIBEZ 375
51. 223's 368
52. Camelot 363
53. Falling 362
54. It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year 358
55. Leave Em Alone 351
56. Time 346
57. Prayed For You 336
58. Goodbyes 332
59. Kinfolks 326
60. Hate Me 323
61. Heartache Medication 321
62. Ridin Roads 320
63. Baby Sitter 315
64. Enemies 315
65. We Were 311
66. Nice to Meet Ya 299
67. Suge 298
68. Follow God 297
69. Slow Dancing in the Dark 277
70. Blinding Lights 275
71. One Thing Right 273
72. Death 267
73. Yellow Hearts 262
74. Easy 260
75. Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow 256
76. Jerry Sprunger 254
77. Into the Unknown 249
78. Vete 246
79. Lucid Dreams 238
80. all the good girls go to hell 233
81. The Christmas Song 230
82. Make No Sense 225
83. Sucker 220
84. We Back 219
85. Last Christmas 215
86. Feliz Navidad 214
87. La Cancion 208
88. Homesick 203
89. Sleigh Ride 200
90. Money in the Grave 199
91. Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer 196
92. 6 Kiss 190
93. Suicidal 186
94. Dancing With a Stranger 185
95. Watermelon Sugar 185
96. Hot Girl Summer 183
97. Happy Holiday/The Holiday Season 182
98. Good Vibes 180
99. Tip of My Tongue 175
100. Lonely Child 168

[GPMB]

Dec 17, 2019 6:31:04 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

The difference is Manic should push it into the top 20 and it’s also better on streaming than Beautiful was so I think it should be pretty good.

Ohhh yeahhhh I forgot Halsey was actually dropping an album soon lol

Then again though, it could mostly run out of steam by mid-January and therefore get a boost but one not big enough to break the top 20

[Deleted]

I think we'll only be able to start making predictions outside the repeating entries once the Christmas freeze is over. However, I believe songs like "Good As Hell", "Lose You To Love Me", "10,000 Hours", "Roxanne", and "Memories" should comfortably make the Year-End.

[anorable]

Hardcore rooting for Ballin’ and Even Though I’m Leaving. Should be good on the former but Christmas might kill the latter sadly, fingers crossed.

[Deleted]

Dec 18, 2019 14:10:07 GMT -5 anorable said:

Hardcore rooting for Ballin’ and Even Though I’m Leaving. Should be good on the former but Christmas might kill the latter sadly, fingers crossed.

Even Though I'm Leaving will be on its 17th week when the Christmas songs will be most intense, so it will not go recurrent because of them.

However, I will say that unless its radio losses are very slow in the following weeks, it will most likely go recurrent after its 20th week and miss.

[Deleted]

Dec 18, 2019 14:14:06 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Dec 18, 2019 14:10:07 GMT -5 anorable said:

Hardcore rooting for Ballin’ and Even Though I’m Leaving. Should be good on the former but Christmas might kill the latter sadly, fingers crossed.

Even Though I'm Leaving will be on its 17th week when the Christmas songs will be most intense, so it will not go recurrent because of them.

However, I will say that unless its radio losses are very slow in the following weeks, it will most likely go recurrent after its 20th week and miss.

Why couldn't they have began pushing it a mont earlier so it could sneak onto 2019's List? Horrible timing for a fantastic song.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

I'm working on a list of the Best Popular Songs of 2019, meaning I'll take into account other year-end charts in other genres and other countries into consideration (basically, this gives me an excuse to talk about SLOW DANCING IN THE DARK) but if I had to make a list based solely on the Hot 100 year-end, it'd go like this

10. Sunflower
9. Circles
8. Truth Hurts
7. My Type
6. a lot
5. bad guy
4. bury a friend
3. Mo Bamba
2. Old Town Road
1. when the party’s over (yeah, all Billie Eilish songs in the Top 5)

Honourable Mentions:
Dancing with a Stranger, Goodbyes, Panini, Shallow, God’s Country, Pop Out

And since I don't plan on doing a worst hits - at all - here they are:

10. Swervin
9. One Thing Right
8. High Hopes
7. ZEZE
6. Eyes on You
5. Thotiana
4. Only Human
3. I Don’t Care
2. Robbery
1. Someone You Loved (Predictable choice but at least Robbery is so bad it's good; I laugh every time I hear it. Can't say the same for this awfulness)

Dishonourable Mentions:
Baby, Talk You Out of It, Knockin’ Boots, Leave Me Alone, Wake Up in the Sky, break up with your girlfriend i’m bored, No Guidance

[lights]

Update on what I sad with regards to AIWFCIY - I now believe it is likely to end up at projected ~#92 on my predictions for 2020, based on the number of points for each position in 2019.

This is also assuming it doesn't re-enter early next year and get one more week for the 2020 chart year, which would push it up to almost complete safety.

[inverse]

I have this conspiracy theory that the reason Billboard did such a stupid year end tracking period for 2019 is because they wanted to put All I Want For Christmas Is You on a year end list so this is gonna be a 54 week year to ensure that it'll be there

[tallen2001]

I’m really rooting for Juicy to become a hit. It’s getting the radio spins it just needs streaming to pick up a bit.

[nathanalbright]

Dec 19, 2019 13:42:34 GMT -5 inverse said:

I have this conspiracy theory that the reason Billboard did such a stupid year end tracking period for 2019 is because they wanted to put All I Want For Christmas Is You on a year end list so this is gonna be a 54 week year to ensure that it'll be there

Would it really need the help, though?

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Dec 20, 2019 1:34:14 GMT -5 tallen2001 said:

I’m really rooting for Juicy to become a hit. It’s getting the radio spins it just needs streaming to pick up a bit.

It'd be a mixed blessing if it does. I like Doja Cat but I like her weirder/more creative side. I just got the sinking feeling while listening to her album, Hot Pink, that that comedic spark I found so interesting was slowly being chipped away in favor of being a more conventional sultry artist. If she went a more DRAM route and embraced the silliness with more experimentation I'd be more forgiving but I feel a major label isn't going to be on board releasing a song literally about being a cow. 

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Todd's list for worst hit songs is out and hearing Todd roast Adam Levine will never get old

[Groovy]

What are the odds that Ballin’ becomes a hit?

[gregtwinner]

Dec 23, 2019 17:12:05 GMT -5 Groovy said:

What are the odds that Ballin’ becomes a hit?

It got to a new peak this week despite the christmas songs so it should be good

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Dec 23, 2019 17:56:30 GMT -5 gregtwinner said:

Dec 23, 2019 17:12:05 GMT -5 Groovy said:

What are the odds that Ballin’ becomes a hit?

It got to a new peak this week despite the christmas songs so it should be good

And once the Christmas songs disappear, "Ballin'" should notch an easy place in the Top 10.

SPOILER: Click to show

{P.S.}
Anyways, welcome to you new poster that has Merrell Twins as an avatar. I like them :)

[weirdo]

You know what would be cool?, if someone did the Hot 100 year end chart but with CrowbNote points system instead. I'd do it but i don't want to have to delete my personal charts

[GPMB]

ok so does anyone know what the deal was with Drink a Beer in 2014? it seemed locked for the year end, not even just in the low spots but in the 80-89 range whether a real or inverse point system was used, but it completely missed?

[dremolus - solarpunk]

With The Box, Ballin', and Project Dreams (aka the only good Marshmello song), it seems like Roddy Ricch is the new underdog everyone's rooting for. Not that I'm complaining because if not for Old Town Road, Ballin' would easily be the best hip-hop song to become a hit this year.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Will the Christmas songs linger for a while or will they drop by the time New Year's comes around? I don't remember if there was a drop this time last year.

[lurker2]

Dec 23, 2019 21:33:39 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Will the Christmas songs linger for a while or will they drop by the time New Year's comes around? I don't remember if there was a drop this time last year.

They fall off. On Christmas last year, Mariah had 2.38m streams. On the 26th, .542. The 27th, It was off the chart.

[sirskimask]

Dec 23, 2019 17:12:05 GMT -5 Groovy said:

What are the odds that Ballin’ becomes a hit?

What do you mean? It already is a hit 

[Deleted]

Dec 23, 2019 22:06:01 GMT -5 sirskimask said:

Dec 23, 2019 17:12:05 GMT -5 Groovy said:

What are the odds that Ballin’ becomes a hit?

What do you mean? It already is a hit 

I think he meant in terms of Ballin' making the 2020 year end list.

[Deleted]

Here's week 6 of my 2020 year end predictions. A song locks when it hits 2000 points and will be within striking distance at 1700 points.

Will Lock Next Week: Circles (Maybe it might end up with just below 2000 points next week.)

Within Striking Distance Next Week: Someone You Loved, All I Want For Christmas Is You

Dropouts:
Beautiful People 706 (Will miss the 2020 year end list).

Since this song dropped off with below 1500 points, which is the tracking cutoff for songs that dropped out, I will not keep it on the predictions list.

- - - - - LOCKED CUTOFF (2000 Points) - - - - -

1 Circles 1715

- - - - - STRIKING DISTANCE (1700 Points) - - - - -

2 Someone You Loved 1563

- - - - - TRACKING CUTOFF (1500 Points) - - - - -

3 Good As Hell 1426
4 Memories 1412
5 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1362
6 Roxanne 1285
7 Lose You To Love Me 1243
8 10,000 Hours 1172
9 Senorita 1169
10 No Guidance 1132
11 Dance Monkey 1117
12 Panini 1059
13 Truth Hurts 1058
14 Bad Guy 1033
15 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 1021
16 Ballin' 1016
17 BOP 1006
18 Trampoline 990
19 Bandit 920
20 Hot 902
21 Woah 900
22 Lover 859
23 Ran$om 855
24 One Man Band 839
25 Everything I Wanted 838
26 Even Though I'm Leaving 835
27 Only Human 835
28 Old Town Road 835
29 On Chill 778
30 Heartless 766
31 Don't Start Now 732
32 Graveyard 727
33 Playing Games 715
34 Heat 696
35 Hot Girl Bummer 690
36 The Bones 644
37 Juicy 641
38 Take What You Want 583
39 Falling 583
40 Nice To Meet Ya 429
41 Into The Unknown 428
42 Blinding Lights 409
43 The Box 309
44 Adore You 307
45 Futsal Shuffle 2020 255

PS: I removed Vete because I realized there's little chance that song would become a hit. I only added it because latin songs are hard to track.