2020 Billboard Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (Year 8)

[spicymapping]

we got locks boys

TL, DR: 

Locked: Circles, Someone You Loved
Added: Dance Monkey, Truth Hurts, Panini, Bop

1. Circles (=)
2. Someone You Loved (=)

PREDICTED CUTOFF - 17K

3. Good As Hell (=)
4. Memories (=)
5. All I Want For Christmas Is You (+2)
6. Roxanne (+2)
7. Lose You To Love Me (-2)
8. Señorita (-2)
9. 10,000 Hours (=)
10. No Guidance (=)
11. Dance Monkey (NEW)
12. Truth Hurts (NEW)
13. Panini (NEW)
14. Bop (NEW)

TRACKING CUTOFF - 10K

[tanooki]

12/28/19 - Week 6

1. Circles 1717
2. Someone You Loved 1541
3. Memories 1391
4. Good As Hell 1387
5. All I Want For Christmas Is You 1339
6. Roxanne 1288
7. Lose You to Love Me 1209
8. 10,000 Hours 1142
9. Senorita 1,100
10. Dance Monkey 1080
11. No Guidance 1060
12. Panini 995
13. Truth Hurts 984
14. BOP 968
15. HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 931
16. Ballin' 930
17. bad guy 921
18. Trampoline 905
19. Rockin Around the Christmas Tree 888
20. Bandit 820
21. Woah 805
22. Hot 801
23. Lover 751
24. everything I wanted 745
25. Ran$om 744
26. Even Though I'm Leaving 733
27. Old Town Road 732
28. One Man Band 722
29. Only Human 713
30. A Holly Jolly Christmas 702
31. Heartless 699
32. On Chill 653
33. Beautiful People 623
34. Jingle Bell Rock 613
35. Don't Start Now 579
36. Graveyard 570
37. Playing Games 560
38. Heat 553
39. It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year 528
40. hot girl bummer 528
41. The Bones 493
42. Juicy 491
43. Falling 466
44. Take What You Want 451
45. VIBEZ 450
46. Heart on Ice 450
47. I Don't Care 447
48. Remember You Young 444
49. What If I Never Get Over You 443
50. Talk 432
51. Camelot 427
52. 223's 421
53. Leave Em Alone 410
54. Baby 410
55. How Do You Sleep? 409
56. Prayed For You 390
57. Ridin Roads 389
58. Heartache Medication 384
59. Hate Me 383
60. Kinfolks 383
61. Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow 380
62. Last Christmas 375
63. Lucid Dreams 374
64. Baby Sitter 366
65. Enemies 363
66. Nice to Meet Ya 355
67. The Christmas Song 350
68. Feliz Navidad 348
69. Blinding Lights 347
70. Time 346
71. Goodbyes 332
72. Slow Dancing in the Dark 330
73. Death 328
74. Into the Unknown 319
75. Yellow Hearts 312
76. We Were 311
77. Easy 309
78. Sleigh Ride 306
79. Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer 304
80. Vete 301
81. Suge 298
82. Follow God 297
83. Happy Holiday/The Holiday Season 282
84. One Thing Right 273
85. Watermelon Sugar 266
86. Suicidal 263
87. Futsal Shuffle 2020 259
88. Jerry Sprunger 254
89. Homesick 252
90. The Box 243
91. Adore You 242
92. 6 Kiss 238
93. all the good girls go to hell 233
94. Make No Sense 225
95. No Idea 220
96. Sucker 220
97. Like It's Christmas 219
98. We Back 219
99. Candy 208
100. La Cancion 208

[Deleted]

Dec 23, 2019 1:23:12 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Todd's list for worst hit songs is out and hearing Todd roast Adam Levine will never get old

The entirety of the two videos were comedy gold, but my favorite part was Todd using his poor predictions powers for good and finally admitting that Maroon 5 will never fade out of relevancy. Even as someone who actually likes most of their output post-sellout (especially "Overexposed"), I wouldn't mind it with how their music has become increasingly bland and safe.

[brandon]

Wait... So are we in week 5 or week 6, for December 28? I've worked on an inverse system and will show, but once I know if we're 5 or 6 weeks in atm.

[sirskimask]

Dec 25, 2019 14:38:15 GMT -5 brandon said:

Wait... So are we in week 5 or week 6, for December 28? I've worked on an inverse system and will show, but once I know if we're 5 or 6 weeks in atm.

Week 6 assuming they're gonna start with the week of November 23rd 

[reputainbow]

NOVEMBER / DECEMBER UPDATE

using the correct tracking weeks this time (11/23/19-11/14/20). also using my same formula, but i have a feeling there's going to be another song to join the year end with a top 60 peak but spend more than 20 weeks charting... so i might need to adjust later.

SPOILER: Click to show

{Top 100}KEY: 1100+: Locked | 1000+: Very Likely/Near Locked | 900+: Likely | 800+: Possibly | 700+: In Consideration

1 Circles (Post Malone) 1210
2 Someone You Loved (Lewis Capaldi) 1050
3 Good as Hell (Lizzo) 890
4 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 885
5 Memories (Maroon 5) 880
6 ROXANNE (Arizona Zervas) 743
7 Lose You to Love Me (Selena Gomez) 697
8 Senorita (Shawn Mendes/Camila Cabello) 691
9 No Guidance (Chris Brown/Drake) 610
10 10,000 Hours (Dan + Shay/Justin Bieber) 605
11 Truth Hurts (Lizzo) 576
12 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 542
13 Dance Monkey (Tones and I) 538
14 Panini (Lil Nas X) 523
15 Ballin' (Mustard/Roddy Ricch) 497
16 Bad Guy (Billie Eilish) 495
17 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM (Travis Scott) 493
18 Trampoline (SHAED) 483
19 Heartless (The Weeknd) 478
20 BOP (DaBaby) 470
21 Hot (Young Thug/Gunna) 458
22 Woah (Lil Baby) 456
23 Bandit (Juice WRLD/YoungBoy NeverBrokeAgain) 455
24 everything i wanted (Billie Eilish) 436
25 Ran$om (Lil Tecca) 431
26 Old Town Road (Lil Nas X/Billy Ray Cyrus) 427
27 One Man Band (Old Dominion) 427
28 Lover (Taylor Swift) 426
29 Only Human (Jonas Brothers) 417
30 Even Though I'm Leaving (Luke Combs) 409
31 On Chill (Wale/Jeremih) 392
32 A Holly Jolly Christmas (Burl Ives) 376
33 Don't Start Now (Dua Lipa) 355
34 Beautiful People (Ed Sheeran/Khalid) 354
35 Graveyard (Halsey) 346
36 Playing Games (Summer Walker) 333
37 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 328
38 Heat (Chris Brown/Gunna) 325
39 Hot Girl Bummer (Blackbear) 320
40 It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (Andy Williams) 296
41 The Bones (Maren Morris) 289
42 Last Christmas (Wham!) 288
43 Juicy (Doja Cat/Tyga) 287
44 Falling (Trevor Daniel) 273
45 I Don't Care (Ed Sheeran/Justin Bieber) 265
46 Talk (Khalid) 258
47 Take What You Want (Post Malone/Ozzy Osbourne/Travis Scott) 247
48 VIBEZ (DaBaby) 246
49 Heart On Ice (Rod Wave) 246
50 Baby (Lil Baby/DaBaby) 246
51 How Do You Sleep? (Sam Smith) 244
52 Remember You Young (Thomas Rhett) 240
53 What If I Never Get Over You (Lady Antebellum) 239
54 Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow (Dean Martin) 223
55 Camelot (NLE Choppa) 222
56 The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You) (Nat King Cole) 208
57 Feliz Navidad (Jose Feliciano) 207
58 Time (NF) 206
59 Leave Em Alone (Layton Greene/Lil Baby/City Girls/PnB Rock) 205
60 223's (YNW Melly/9Lokknine) 204
61 Lucid Dreams (Juice WRLD) 199
62 Goodbyes (Post Malone/Young Thug) 199
63 Sleigh Ride (The Ronettes) 186
64 Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer (Gene Autry) 185
65 Ridin' Roads (Dustin Lynch) 185
66 Into the Unknown (Idina Menzel/AURORA) 183
67 Suge (DaBaby) 182
68 Heartache Medication (Jon Pardi) 180
69 Prayed For You (Matt Stell) 178
70 Blinding Lights (The Weeknd) 177
71 Kinfolks (Sam Hunt) 174
72 Happy Holiday / The Holiday Season (Andy Williams) 173
73 Hate Me (Ellie Goulding/Juice WRLD) 172
74 One Thing Right (Marshmello/Kane Brown) 166
75 Futsal Shuffle 2020 (Lil Uzi Vert) 150
76 Vete (Bad Bunny) 148
77 Baby Sitter (DaBaby/Offset) 148
78 Death (Trippie Redd/DaBaby) 147
79 Enemies (Post Malone/DaBaby) 144
80 Follow God (Kanye West) 144
81 Adore You (Harry Styles) 143
82 We Were (Keith Urban) 142
83 The Box (Roddy Ricch) 137
84 Nice to Meet Ya (Niall Horan) 132
85 Sucker (Jonas Brothers) 132
86 Suicidal (YNW Melly) 122
87 Watermelon Sugar (Harry Styles) 121
88 Money In the Grave (Drake/Rick Ross) 121
89 Like It's Christmas (Jonas Brothers) 117
90 No Idea (Don Toliver) 116
91 Dancing With a Stranger (Sam Smith/Normani) 113
92 Here Comes Santa Claus (Down Santa Claus Lane) (Gene Autry) 107
93 Jerry Sprunger (Torey Lanez/T-Pain) 100
94 Slow Dancing In the Dark (Joji) 98
95 All the Good Girls Go to Hell (Billie Eilish) 93
96 6 Kiss (Trippie Redd/Juice WRLD/YNW Melly) 86
97 Start Wit Me (Roddy Ricch/Gunna) 78
98 Liar (Camila Cabello) 75
99 Legends (Juice WRLD) 72
100 Every Little Thing (Russell Dickerson) 71

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Surprised how many worst lists Hey Look Ma, I Made It is making. Like yeah, it's soulless, flavorless junk coming from an artist that used to have so much personality and character...but High Hopes is a million times more annoying with one of the worst hooks I've heard in a while, and it's still just as bland and plastic.

[nathanalbright]

Dec 26, 2019 9:05:59 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Surprised how many worst lists Hey Look Ma, I Made It is making. Like yeah, it's soulless, flavorless junk coming from an artist that used to have so much personality and character...but High Hopes is a million times more annoying with one of the worst hooks I've heard in a while, and it's still just as bland and plastic.

I find both songs pretty equally annoying and disappointing, but I can see both how someone would think a 19th century political slogan line like "manifest destiny" would make High Hopes worse or that the fact that "Hey Look Ma, I Made It" is a cynical cash grab that attempts to mock selling out would tend to offend others like it did Mark from Spectrum Pulse.  Perhaps one could split the difference and say that Brendan Urue/Panic At The Disco! was worthy of a worst spot as a whole on the list, possibly using it to include Me! as well.

[twelvevinylrecords]

Prediction: 2020 is going to be the best year in music in over half a decade

[nathanalbright]

Dec 26, 2019 20:25:58 GMT -5 twelvevinylrecords said:

Prediction: 2020 is going to be the best year in music in over half a decade

So do you predict it will be better than 2015 and as good as, say, 2012 or so?  This hot take will likely be quoted, so I want to make sure you state your prediction boldly.

[weirdo]

I think 2020 will be a very diverse year, in that alot of different music styles will be popular and it will be a very diverse mix of music genres and styles

[GPMB]

wait so since rimetm doesn't seem to be doing anything currently, who is our main predictor this year?

[tuna]

I'm predicting that the bedroom pop bubble will solidify in the mainstream in 2020. Expect genuine hits from artists like Clairo, the 1975, and Still Woozy.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Dec 27, 2019 2:04:49 GMT -5 tuna said:

I'm predicting that the bedroom pop bubble will solidify in the mainstream in 2020. Expect genuine hits from artists like Clairo, the 1975, and Still Woozy.

As much as I would love The 1975 to finally breakthrough the mainstream, they just seem too...chaotic for mainstream tastes. Maybe if it was 2013-2017 but nowadays they're gong more for in your face shots of adrenaline (not thatI'm complaining as I love songs like 'People' and 'Love It If We Made It'). Even they're more lowkey, lofi songs don't seem like the type I could see being everywhere.

If we are talking about acts that could blow up and aren't too alien: BROCKHAMPTON, Emotional Oranges, YBN Cordae, they're right there!

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Looking back at the one hit wonders of the 2010s, there are a bunch that I can't wait for their hits and back-catalog to be dissected ala OHW style. There are obvious ones like Gotye, Hozier, WALK THE MOON, Portugal. the Man. But there are other artists like La Roux, Adam Lambert Orianthi, Of Monsters and Men, Capital Cities, Icona Pop, Jidenna, Zara Larsson, KYLE and especially artists like DRAM, Aminé, Jon Bellion, Flume and Jidenna whose other material is fascinating to look at.

Even acts I don't love like The Lumineers, AWOLNATION and KONGOS, it'd be interesting figuring out how they got big in the first place and how lucky they are to get a hit given their music.

(BTW, I predict Playboi Carti and Sheck Wes to get at least one other hit. The latter since he has ties with Travis Scott and I can see him becoming the go-to hypeman for rap songs, kinda like Lil Jon, and the former because the underground fanbase for Playboi Carti is insane)

[twelvevinylrecords]

Dec 26, 2019 21:19:15 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

Dec 26, 2019 20:25:58 GMT -5 twelvevinylrecords said:

Prediction: 2020 is going to be the best year in music in over half a decade

So do you predict it will be better than 2015 and as good as, say, 2012 or so?  This hot take will likely be quoted, so I want to make sure you state your prediction boldly.

I will say as good as 2015, but not as good as 2012. I just feel like 2020 is going to be the first year of the next generation of pop acts, whereas 2019 was more of a transitionary year between decades

[Groovy]

Do you guys think that Dirty Iyanna becomes a hit? It’s easily one of Youngboy NBA’s best songs and it’s pretty good.

[moonlite]

Dec 27, 2019 11:55:25 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Do you guys think that Dirty Iyanna becomes a hit? It’s easily one of Youngboy NBA’s best songs and it’s pretty good.

I dont think so, the song already came and went

[dremolus - solarpunk]

PREDICTION: Roddy Ricch is going to have a full album bomb some time this year

[weirdo]

Dec 28, 2019 6:43:11 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

PREDICTION: Roddy Ricch is going to have a full album bomb some time this year

I agree, and it will be BIG

[twelvevinylrecords]

Also, if Dont Start Now, Blinding Lights, Watermelon Sugar and Everything I wanted dont become huge mega hits I will have lost all hope the same way when Green Light wasn’t a huge hit

[rimetm]

Dec 26, 2019 22:53:18 GMT -5 GPMB said:

wait so since rimetm doesn't seem to be doing anything currently, who is our main predictor this year?

I’m still in, I’m just waiting for the Christmas stuff to leave both so that I can get a better foothold on the actual candidates and so that I don’t have to keep revising the early weeks based on the more accurate reads 1/11 will grant me.

[lights]

Likewise I'm doing it again I'm just not going to post the full 100 for a while

[brandon]

Week 6

Here you all go! Presenting my Hot 100, using the Inverse Point System! As I am Australian, the dates are listed in dd/mm/yyyy format. Green is locked, yellow is locked next week if it does the same performance as this week or better (Although I'm doubting AIWFCIY). Good As Hell and Memories were locked this week. I will also present the bubbling under side of it all as it stands this week, but from next week on, I will only show the songs that have dropped out of the hot 100, the currently charting songs, and the songs that dropped out of the charts in the last week.

Oh, also, It takes 170000 to lock.

TL;DR:

Locked: Good As Hell, Memories

Expected to be locked next week: AIWFCIY, Roxanne

SPOILER: Click to show

{Hot 100 Week 6}

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Dec 28, 2019 10:41:54 GMT -5 twelvevinylrecords said:

Also, if Dont Start Now, Blinding Lights, Watermelon Sugar and Everything I wanted dont become huge mega hits I will have lost all hope the same way when Green Light wasn’t a huge hit

Watermelon Sugar won't but Adore You might

[Normi]

Tove lo

[insen_13]

Dec 26, 2019 21:19:15 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

Dec 26, 2019 20:25:58 GMT -5 twelvevinylrecords said:

Prediction: 2020 is going to be the best year in music in over half a decade

So do you predict it will be better than 2015 and as good as, say, 2012 or so?  This hot take will likely be quoted, so I want to make sure you state your prediction boldly.

I doubt 2020 will be a 2012. But I do hope it does. I want the year 2012 to be challenged. Then, by the time comes, hopefully, there'll be a debate as to which is the best. Yeaaah, fantasies. Hahaha 🤣

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Dec 28, 2019 10:41:54 GMT -5 twelvevinylrecords said:

Also, if Dont Start Now, Blinding Lights, Watermelon Sugar and Everything I wanted dont become huge mega hits I will have lost all hope the same way when Green Light wasn’t a huge hit

I'll be fine with "Watermelon Sugar" and "Everything I Wanted" becoming hits (although "Adore You" would be more successful), but the other two SHOULD be a hit and not try to flop :)

[Marcus]

I wouldn't be surprised if grime takes over the rap scene the way trap rap did in the late 2010s. Drake has already hopped on the whole grime craze that's been bubbling up in the underground for a while now so that should give it a boost. I'd say give it a couple of years until it fully takes over.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

I could actually see Burna Boy being a one-hit wonder in the states while a huge star in the UK. Like if he collaborates with Rihanna or gets a huge summertime smash, he could be a star outside of Europe.

Rappers like Kano, Dave, Stormzy and other grime rappers, like I said before, they're style is very localized in the same way reggaeton is in latin country. Not to mention, hype for international acts doesn't travel immediately, unless they go viral like Adele or are writers behind the scenes for bigger acts like Ed Sheeran or Sia.