2020 Billboard Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (Year 8)

[dremolus - solarpunk]

If we're still vouching for Post to push Take What You Want to be a hit, can we also push Taylor to push Cruel Summer also?

Also, Slow Dancing dropped out of the hip-hop/R&B charts :(.

[rockgolf]

I missed posting a week (Dec 21) and even this post comes the day before the first 2020-dated chart is released, but I still want to post my 2020 year-end estimate for all charts expected to be included in the 2020 year-end.

So here's those songs based on the December 28, 2019 chart (the one released 6 days ago).

Looks like the Christmas songs will go out with a bang on tomorrow's chart, as it's already been announced the top 4 are all Xmas choonz. I'll be shocked if there's even a single such song on the chart following. Circles is already well on course to making the top ten at 2020's year end.

(PS: I'll try to update my top 10,000 list on the all-time thread tomorrow and will include any songs that fell off on the Dec 21, Dec 28 or Jan 3 charts for completeness.)

[GPMB]

only 10 songs that made the 2019 YE are still charting, and Ransom and Only Human are projected to be gone this week (Old Town Road was too but it magically not only stayed but gained 7 spots). That means it's possible that in 2020 we'll have the least amount of repeats in years

[weirdo]

Dec 30, 2019 18:21:12 GMT -5 GPMB said:

only 10 songs that made the 2019 YE are still charting, and Ransom and Only Human are projected to be gone this week (Old Town Road was too but it magically not only stayed but gained 7 spots). That means it's possible that in 2020 we'll have the least amount of repeats in years

Im gonna guess that Old Town Road, Bad Guy, Senorita, No Guidance, Memories, Circles, Dance Monkey, The Box, ROXANNE, GAH & Someone You Loved will all make it, as well as maybe some others i forgot to mention. All I Want For Christmas Is You, Truth Hurts, Panini & Highest In The Room will probably be on the edge

[Deleted]

Dec 30, 2019 18:21:12 GMT -5 GPMB said:

only 10 songs that made the 2019 YE are still charting, and Ransom and Only Human are projected to be gone this week (Old Town Road was too but it magically not only stayed but gained 7 spots). That means it's possible that in 2020 we'll have the least amount of repeats in years

Circles and Someone You Loved are guaranteed. Old Town Road, Bad Guy, Senorita and No Guidance seem very likely. Truth Hurts and Panini are likely but could still miss. Trampoline and Ran$om are pure toss ups but I think the former will barely scrape by while the latter will just miss the cut. Oh and apparently Only Human dropped out this week so it's definitely going to miss if this is the case.

[korbel16]

Dec 30, 2019 18:21:12 GMT -5 GPMB said:

only 10 songs that made the 2019 YE are still charting, and Ransom and Only Human are projected to be gone this week (Old Town Road was too but it magically not only stayed but gained 7 spots). That means it's possible that in 2020 we'll have the least amount of repeats in years

ransom survived at #50

[weirdo]

Dec 30, 2019 18:44:04 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Dec 30, 2019 18:21:12 GMT -5 GPMB said:

only 10 songs that made the 2019 YE are still charting, and Ransom and Only Human are projected to be gone this week (Old Town Road was too but it magically not only stayed but gained 7 spots). That means it's possible that in 2020 we'll have the least amount of repeats in years

Circles and Someone You Loved are guaranteed. Old Town Road, Bad Guy, Senorita and No Guidance seem very likely. Truth Hurts and Panini are likely but could still miss. Trampoline and Ran$om are pure toss ups but I think the former will barely scrape by while the latter will just miss the cut. Oh and apparently Only Human dropped out this week so it's definitely going to miss if this is the case.

Ransom probably fell out this week anyways, if it did then it will definutely miss. Trampoline could go either way though

EDIT: Ransom survived this week, so it MIGHT make it

[nathanalbright]

With the chart runs so far for Highest In The Room and All I Want For Christmas Is You, as well as Heartless, it looks like there are a few #1 hits that might not make the YE chart, which would be the first time that has happened in a very long while, since the days of American Idol (Fantasia's "I Believe").

[GPMB]

Dec 30, 2019 19:03:04 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

Dec 30, 2019 18:21:12 GMT -5 GPMB said:

only 10 songs that made the 2019 YE are still charting, and Ransom and Only Human are projected to be gone this week (Old Town Road was too but it magically not only stayed but gained 7 spots). That means it's possible that in 2020 we'll have the least amount of repeats in years

ransom survived at #50

THANK GOD

[tuna]

Will AIWFCIY's points from these last 3 weeks be enough to make the cutoff?

[atg]

Dec 30, 2019 20:10:11 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

With the chart runs so far for Highest In The Room and All I Want For Christmas Is You, as well as Heartless, it looks like there are a few #1 hits that might not make the YE chart, which would be the first time that has happened in a very long while, since the days of American Idol (Fantasia's "I Believe").

I can’t believe 2004 is about to be 16 years ago

[sirskimask]

Dec 30, 2019 20:10:11 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

With the chart runs so far for Highest In The Room and All I Want For Christmas Is You, as well as Heartless, it looks like there are a few #1 hits that might not make the YE chart, which would be the first time that has happened in a very long while, since the days of American Idol (Fantasia's "I Believe").

Remix will give HITR a significant boost so it'll definitely make it. I believe AIWFCIY locked after this week but don't quote me on that. Heartless it's still too early to say, not looking good at the moment though 

[tanooki]

Week 7 - 1/4/20

1 Circles 2,000
2 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1,806
3 Someone You Loved 1,767
4 Memories 1,615
5 Good As Hell 1,598
6 Roxanne 1,552
7 Lose You to Love Me 1,364
8 10,000 Hours 1,302
9 Rockin Around the Christmas Tree 1,291
10 Dance Monkey 1,255
11 Senorita 1,228
12 No Guidance 1,190
13 Panini 1,115
14 BOP 1,108
15 Truth Hurts 1,094
16 Ballin' 1,080
17 bad guy 1,055
18 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 1,035
19 A Holly Jolly Christmas 1,026
20 Trampoline 994
21 Jingle Bell Rock 950
22 Bandit 946
23 Hot 915
24 Woah 893
25 Old Town Road 844
26 everything I wanted 843
27 Lover 829
28 Ran$om 829
29 One Man Band 803
30 Heartless 801
31 Even Though I'm Leaving 789
32 It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year 789
33 On Chill 730
34 Only Human 713
35 Don't Start Now 662
36 Graveyard 644
37 Playing Games 630
38 Beautiful People 623
39 Heat 622
40 hot girl bummer 608
41 Last Christmas 575
42 The Bones 564
43 Juicy 563
44 Falling 550
45 Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow 550
46 Feliz Navidad 538
47 VIBEZ 517
48 Heart on Ice 515
49 The Christmas Song 515
50 Take What You Want 510
51 What If I Never Get Over You 507
52 Remember You Young 500
53 Camelot 488
54 223's 476
55 Leave Em Alone 468
56 Ridin Roads 451
57 I Don't Care 447
58 Heartache Medication 444
59 Sleigh Ride 444
60 Hate Me 441
61 Kinfolks 440
62 Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer 440
63 Talk 432
64 The Box 423
65 Baby Sitter 417
66 Happy Holiday/The Holiday Season 414
67 Enemies 411
68 Baby 410
69 Blinding Lights 410
70 How Do You Sleep? 409
71 Nice to Meet Ya 406
72 Prayed For You 390
73 Into the Unknown 387
74 Death 384
75 Slow Dancing in the Dark 383
76 Lucid Dreams 374
77 Yellow Hearts 362
78 Easy 361
79 Vete 353
80 Futsal Shuffle 2020 346
81 Time 346
82 Suicidal 342
83 Goodbyes 332
84 Adore You 324
85 Watermelon Sugar 320
86 Like It's Christmas 311
87 We Were 311
88 Homesick 305
89 Suge 298
90 Follow God 297
91 No Idea 295
92 Here Comes Santa Claus 291
93 One Thing Right 273
94 Candy 257
95 Jerry Sprunger 254
96 RITMO 251
97 Start Wit Me 250
98 6 Kiss 238
99 all the good girls go to hell 233
100 Make No Sense 225
101 Tip Toe 225
102 Sucker 220
103 We Back 219
104 It's Beginning to Look A Lot Like Christmas 209
105 La Cancion 208
106 Tusa 207
107 My Oh My 203
108 Money in the Grave 199
109 Dancing With a Stranger 185
110 Hot Girl Summer 183

[spoons]

I hope AIWFCIY doesnt make the year end OR decade end, but i think it'll have more earned it's spot on the all time list. It just wouldn't be accurate, it's not like we started to make AIWFCIY a hit in 2018 and 2019, we been acknowledged it as a classic. If it makes the year end and decade end, it'll feel like billboard being bad at representing the year or decade, similar to how they messed up Gangnam Style's chart run.

[tanooki]

Dec 31, 2019 0:05:40 GMT -5 spoons said:

I hope AIWFCIY doesnt make the year end OR decade end, but i think it'll have more earned it's spot on the all time list. It just wouldn't be accurate, it's not like we started to make AIWFCIY a hit in 2018 and 2019, we been acknowledged it as a classic. If it makes the year end and decade end, it'll feel like billboard being bad at representing the year or decade, similar to how they messed up Gangnam Style's chart run.

it's locked for the year end by now lol

[spoons]

Dec 31, 2019 0:07:14 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Dec 31, 2019 0:05:40 GMT -5 spoons said:

I hope AIWFCIY doesnt make the year end OR decade end, but i think it'll have more earned it's spot on the all time list. It just wouldn't be accurate, it's not like we started to make AIWFCIY a hit in 2018 and 2019, we been acknowledged it as a classic. If it makes the year end and decade end, it'll feel like billboard being bad at representing the year or decade, similar to how they messed up Gangnam Style's chart run.

it's locked for the year end by now lol

I hope they make an exception by cutting it out the year end, and reserve AIWFCIY #1 on the all time list when it inevitably racks up enough points.

[tuna]

quick question- are there any years with 3+ songs on the all-time greatest list, other than 2019?

[tanooki]

Dec 31, 2019 1:19:00 GMT -5 tuna said:

quick question- are there any years with 3+ songs on the all-time greatest list, other than 2019?

iirc 1980 has 5

[Lukas]

Dec 31, 2019 0:11:00 GMT -5 spoons said:

Dec 31, 2019 0:07:14 GMT -5 tanooki said:

it's locked for the year end by now lol

I hope they make an exception by cutting it out the year end, and reserve AIWFCIY #1 on the all time list when it inevitably racks up enough points.

But why? If it is one of the biggest songs of the year, shouldn't that be represented? It's similar to when songs like Shape of You make the next year end list, it doesn't need to be from that year to make it.

And even if you do decide to take it off for your own purposes, you are still left with 99 songs ranked by chart performance that represent the biggest hits of the year.

[lights]

On my system, All I Want For Christmas Is You is estimated at 1905 points. This would've placed it at #88 on last year's chart.

The cutoff last year was ~1690 points.

[Deleted]

Here's week 7 of my 2020 year end predictions. I might adjust the points for the lower ranking songs at a future date, not sure yet though.

Locked This Week: Circles

Will Lock Next Week: Someone You Loved
Within Striking Distance Next Week: Good As Hell, Memories & Roxanne

Dropouts:
Only Human 835 (Will miss the 2020 year end list).

1 Circles 2000
- - - - - LOCKED CUTOFF (2000 Points) - - - - -
2 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1912
3 Someone You Loved 1813
- - - - - STRIKING DISTANCE (1700 Points) - - - - -
4 Good As Hell 1666
5 Memories 1657
6 Roxanne 1540
- - - - - TRACKING CUTOFF (1500 Points) - - - - -

7 Lose You To Love Me 1455
8 10,000 Hours 1391
9 Senorita 1349
10 Dance Monkey 1343
11 No Guidance 1317
12 Panini 1223
13 Bad Guy 1223
14 Ballin' 1221
15 Truth Hurts 1215
16 BOP 1206
17 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 1171
18 Trampoline 1134
19 Bandit 1095
20 Hot 1073
21 Woah 1042
22 Old Town Road 999
23 Ran$om 993
24 Lover 986
25 Everything I Wanted 984
26 One Man Band 969
27 Even Though I'm Leaving 960
28 Heartless 914
29 On Chill 904
30 Don't Start Now 866
31 Graveyard 850
32 Playing Games 833
33 Hot Girl Bummer 819
34 Heat 813
35 The Bones 764
36 Juicy 762
37 Falling 719
38 Take What You Want 685
39 Into The Unknown 543
40 The Box 542
41 Blinding Lights 518
42 Nice To Meet Ya 507
43 Adore You 439
44 Futsal Shuffle 2020 395

[Groovy]

Is there a chance that Chills becomes a hit?

[dremolus - solarpunk]

WILDCARD PREDICTION: GRIMES (the artist, not the genre) WILL SOMEHOW BREAK INTO THE MAINSTREAM AND GET A HIT

[anorable]

Jan 1, 2020 7:22:01 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

WILDCARD PREDICTION: GRIMES (the artist, not the genre) WILL SOMEHOW BREAK INTO THE MAINSTREAM AND GET A HIT

Too little too late, We Appreciate Power should’ve been a hit

[lights]

Revising my AIWFCIY points down to 1863 (#91 last year). Should still be enough.

[lifeofaguardian]

Well, I've been following these forums for a while, but I figured I'll join in more actively this year!
I'm going to be making both a weekly playlist on Spotify and a Predictions list that will show what songs would make it if they (hypothetically) were to remain in the same spot for their run.
For this week, though, I'll simply keep to the weekly playlist until the majority of Christmas music has left, at which point I'll also start posting the predictions list.

My guidelines for the weekly playlist are rather simple: until I have 100 songs, I'll add any songs that get over 100.000 points according to my calculations (which will be very closely influenced by other predictors here who use sales data and such) and, for now, I'll consider any song that gains more than 180.000 points locked. Based on past years, that number will lower a bit, but I'd prefer to remain a bit conservative for now.

So, without further ado:


New this week: Ballin', Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree, Bad Guy, BOP, HIGHEST IN THE ROOM, Trampoline, Bandit, Hot;
Drop-outs this week: None;
Locked this week: Circles;
Current lowest locked song: Circles

[sirskimask]

Jan 1, 2020 7:22:01 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

WILDCARD PREDICTION: GRIMES (the artist, not the genre) WILL SOMEHOW BREAK INTO THE MAINSTREAM AND GET A HIT

I think grime the genre will be more likely to break into the mainstream than Grimes

[anorable]

Jan 1, 2020 16:49:10 GMT -5 sirskimask said:

Jan 1, 2020 7:22:01 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

WILDCARD PREDICTION: GRIMES (the artist, not the genre) WILL SOMEHOW BREAK INTO THE MAINSTREAM AND GET A HIT

I think grime the genre will be more likely to break into the mainstream than Grimes

I’d be cool with grime being the next big rap trend after trap.

[spoons]

How many more weeks in top 50 for No Guidance to repeat in 2020 :DDDD

[brandon]

Week 7

Welp, looks like 2 songs have been locked this week, with 1 getting locked next week if it remains #2 or #1 (frankly, I don't see it happening, but had to mark yellow, for formality). All the songs below #100 which aren't current, didn't drop out last week of either the charts or my top 100, have been removed, but will still be tracked.

Locked: All I Want For Christmas Is You, Roxanne

Expected To Be Locked Next Week: Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree (Almost Impossible)

SPOILER: Click to show

{Hot 100 Week 7 Bubbling Under}