GPMB
Gold Member
Joined: December 2016
Posts: 618
|
Post by GPMB on Aug 15, 2020 22:14:06 GMT -5
Is it a possibility that Circles ends up the Year-End #1, thus becoming the first repeat to ever do so? no, in fact Blinding Lights being above Circles is the only thing that I can say *with certainty* will happen in regards to the order of the top 3
|
|
dremolus - solarpunk
Diamond Member
Best In This Chaotic Hell with the best taste
Joined: August 2019
Posts: 12,774
My Reviews
Pronouns: (he/him/they)
|
Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Aug 16, 2020 1:44:16 GMT -5
With WAP possibly getting the biggest week in points this year, does anyone have stats on what were the biggest weeks for each of the previous 10 years? Like Old Town Road's biggest week for 2019, Look What You Made Me Do for 2017, etc.
|
|
Soundcl🕤ck
Diamond Member
Joined: August 2017
Posts: 10,411
|
Post by Soundcl🕤ck on Aug 16, 2020 4:34:08 GMT -5
With WAP possibly getting the biggest week in points this year, does anyone have stats on what were the biggest weeks for each of the previous 10 years? Like Old Town Road's biggest week for 2019, Look What You Made Me Do for 2017, etc. I'm 100% sure about Hello, Tik Tok and Harlem Shake 2010 Tik Tok2011 Grenade2012 We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together2013 Harlem Shake2014 Shake It Off2015 Hello2016 Black Beatles2017 Look What You Made Me Do 2018 In My Feelings2019 Old Town Road 2020 WAP
|
|
Soundcl🕤ck
Diamond Member
Joined: August 2017
Posts: 10,411
|
Post by Soundcl🕤ck on Aug 16, 2020 5:17:33 GMT -5
I just checked fhas' thread about chart points, and yes, Black Beatles was for 2016 and Shake It Off for 2014. This thread was made in June 2018, but I assume In My Feelings had the biggest week that year (116 million streams). also, not sure for 2012, idk what formula was used that year. Somebody That I Used To Know: radio (72 mil) sales (542,000) We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together: radio (52 mil) sales (623,000)
|
|
strongerq
Platinum Member
Joined: August 2019
Posts: 1,482
|
Post by strongerq on Aug 16, 2020 6:55:19 GMT -5
With WAP possibly getting the biggest week in points this year, does anyone have stats on what were the biggest weeks for each of the previous 10 years? Like Old Town Road's biggest week for 2019, Look What You Made Me Do for 2017, etc. Technically not what you are asking, but in similar vein:
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 16, 2020 8:30:42 GMT -5
If The World Is Ending is really going to get more than 20 weeks on the charts because of its rising radio huh?
|
|
Groovy
6x Platinum Member
Joined: October 2017
Posts: 6,432
|
Post by Groovy on Aug 16, 2020 10:16:24 GMT -5
It’s crazy how good 7 Summers is doing on streaming, it’s even beating ROCKSTAR on Spotify.
|
|
joshtheking
Platinum Member
Joined: April 2020
Posts: 1,380
|
Post by joshtheking on Aug 16, 2020 13:34:47 GMT -5
Is Death Bed gonna pull a Falling and randomly re peak months later?
|
|
|
Post by After Minutes on Aug 16, 2020 13:40:26 GMT -5
Realizing that Grenade had a larger peak than Uptown Funk is a moment
|
|
rockgolf
2x Platinum Member
Pop music fanatic since the days of 7" 45 RPM records.
Joined: August 2018
Posts: 2,035
Pronouns: he/him/his
|
Post by rockgolf on Aug 16, 2020 14:08:34 GMT -5
Way late to the party on the August 15, 2020 chart's impact on the year-end top 100, so let's just jump right in.
It looks to me like the top ten of the year are pretty close to being locked down. Even if WAP were to enter at #1 and stay there to mid-November, it wouldn't get enough points under this system to make it.
That top ten: 1-3: (Circles, The Box, Blinding Lights - final order to be determined) 4-10: (Don't Start Now, Memories, Someone You Loved, The Bones, Life Is Good, Adore You, ROCKSTAR)
|
|
85la
3x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 3,687
|
Post by 85la on Aug 16, 2020 14:51:13 GMT -5
WAP hasnt even charted yet, why already predicting it to end on the YE list? It could flop after the first two weeksThat won't happen, because songs that continue to go strong into the second week almost never tank right after, and WAP is continuing to stay strong in all metrics. Usually when songs have a strong #1 debut but tank after, the declines start to be noticeable even after the first 2-5 days of release, but that hasn't happened with this yet. As for where it will place on the year-end, and given that it will most likely stay in the top ten for most if not all of the remaining weeks, it should place fairly high, probably the teens or twenties, or I think even the top ten is technically possible (for any song it's technically possible even if it only charts for one week of the year but has enough points), but this seems like it has a more realistic shot, especially if it stays at #1 for like 8-10+ weeks. How many points per week on average would it need for the rest of the year in order to make the year-end top 10?
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 16, 2020 17:02:29 GMT -5
WAP hasnt even charted yet, why already predicting it to end on the YE list? It could flop after the first two weeksThat won't happen, because songs that continue to go strong into the second week almost never tank right after, and WAP is continuing to stay strong in all metrics. Usually when songs have a strong #1 debut but tank after, the declines start to be noticeable even after the first 2-5 days of release, but that hasn't happened with this yet. As for where it will place on the year-end, and given that it will most likely stay in the top ten for most if not all of the remaining weeks, it should place fairly high, probably the teens or twenties, or I think even the top ten is technically possible (for any song it's technically possible even if it only charts for one week of the year but has enough points), but this seems like it has a more realistic shot, especially if it stays at #1 for like 8-10+ weeks. How many points per week on average would it need for the rest of the year in order to make the year-end top 10? Assuming it gets 80,000 points on its first week, it would need an average of 45,000 points for the rest of the year to make the top 10.
|
|
85la
3x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 3,687
|
Post by 85la on Aug 16, 2020 22:47:03 GMT -5
^ hmm i got it, not likely then.
|
|
inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
Joined: December 2015
Posts: 2,085
|
Post by inverse on Aug 17, 2020 0:38:51 GMT -5
Is Die From A Broken Heart gonna make year end? I assume once it hits #1 on country radio it'll go into freefall like Bluebird & More Hearts Than Mine did Looks like it'll get above 150,000 this week. Even if it absolutely plummets on radio it's doing well enough to pick up 21 weeks and easily slide into the year end list.
|
|
joshtheking
Platinum Member
Joined: April 2020
Posts: 1,380
|
Post by joshtheking on Aug 17, 2020 5:12:13 GMT -5
I think Bang! will be a hit, and have a similar run to Trampoline.
|
|
n13l5
New Member
I like to follow the billboard chart predictions on here
Joined: November 2017
Posts: 122
|
Post by n13l5 on Aug 17, 2020 6:33:25 GMT -5
WAP hasnt even charted yet, why already predicting it to end on the YE list? It could flop after the first two weeksThat won't happen, because songs that continue to go strong into the second week almost never tank right after, and WAP is continuing to stay strong in all metrics. Usually when songs have a strong #1 debut but tank after, the declines start to be noticeable even after the first 2-5 days of release, but that hasn't happened with this yet. As for where it will place on the year-end, and given that it will most likely stay in the top ten for most if not all of the remaining weeks, it should place fairly high, probably the teens or twenties, or I think even the top ten is technically possible (for any song it's technically possible even if it only charts for one week of the year but has enough points), but this seems like it has a more realistic shot, especially if it stays at #1 for like 8-10+ weeks. How many points per week on average would it need for the rest of the year in order to make the year-end top 10? Thank you for the explanation, I admit that im far from an expert in how this pointsystem works
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2020 11:58:57 GMT -5
Is Death Bed gonna pull a Falling and randomly re peak months later? It looks like it peaked on radio so it probably won't.
|
|
85la
3x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 3,687
|
Post by 85la on Aug 17, 2020 12:38:08 GMT -5
That won't happen, because songs that continue to go strong into the second week almost never tank right after, and WAP is continuing to stay strong in all metrics. Usually when songs have a strong #1 debut but tank after, the declines start to be noticeable even after the first 2-5 days of release, but that hasn't happened with this yet. As for where it will place on the year-end, and given that it will most likely stay in the top ten for most if not all of the remaining weeks, it should place fairly high, probably the teens or twenties, or I think even the top ten is technically possible (for any song it's technically possible even if it only charts for one week of the year but has enough points), but this seems like it has a more realistic shot, especially if it stays at #1 for like 8-10+ weeks. How many points per week on average would it need for the rest of the year in order to make the year-end top 10? Thank you for the explanation, I admit that im far from an expert in how this pointsystem works No worries, and sorry if I came off as too didactic as well.
|
|
rockgolf
2x Platinum Member
Pop music fanatic since the days of 7" 45 RPM records.
Joined: August 2018
Posts: 2,035
Pronouns: he/him/his
|
Post by rockgolf on Aug 17, 2020 14:06:32 GMT -5
Is it a possibility that Circles ends up the Year-End #1, thus becoming the first repeat to ever do so? I think it's possible as it's hanging on stronger than The Box, and still has a good lead on Blinding Lights. It's a real 3-way race, for the first time in a long while.
But yes, The Box would need to drop off the chart and Circles would have to stay top 25. With its steady radio lead, Blinding Lights is definitely charging at both of them.
Anybody's game.
PS: By "repeat", do you mean a song that had made a previous year-end appearance becoming #1 the next year? Not, I hope, claiming it was already #1 last year.
|
|
|
Post by alejandropadronv04 on Aug 17, 2020 15:13:48 GMT -5
Do you think Cardigan will stabilize or continue it's freefall?
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2020 16:06:13 GMT -5
Is it a possibility that Circles ends up the Year-End #1, thus becoming the first repeat to ever do so? I think it's possible as it's hanging on stronger than The Box, and still has a good lead on Blinding Lights. It's a real 3-way race, for the first time in a long while.
But yes, The Box would need to drop off the chart and Circles would have to stay top 25. With its steady radio lead, Blinding Lights is definitely charging at both of them.
Anybody's game.
PS: By "repeat", do you mean a song that had made a previous year-end appearance becoming #1 the next year? Not, I hope, claiming it was already #1 last year.
Yeah, that's what I meant.
|
|
rockgolf
2x Platinum Member
Pop music fanatic since the days of 7" 45 RPM records.
Joined: August 2018
Posts: 2,035
Pronouns: he/him/his
|
Post by rockgolf on Aug 17, 2020 16:08:32 GMT -5
Do you think Cardigan will stabilize or continue it's freefall? If radio picks up on it, it could reclimb, but I can't see it go back into the top ten.
|
|
Dadude#0839
New Member
i stan olivia rodrigo
Joined: August 2019
Posts: 162
Pronouns: He/Him
|
Post by Dadude#0839 on Aug 17, 2020 16:25:16 GMT -5
Do you think Cardigan will stabilize or continue it's freefall? If radio picks up on it, it could reclimb, but I can't see it go back into the top ten. I hope radio can pick it up
|
|
rockgolf
2x Platinum Member
Pop music fanatic since the days of 7" 45 RPM records.
Joined: August 2018
Posts: 2,035
Pronouns: he/him/his
|
Post by rockgolf on Aug 17, 2020 16:55:23 GMT -5
We're close enough to the actual year-end that final year-end positions can (perhaps) be reasonably guessed at.
I'm basing this list on current week values and projecting that over the remaining weeks of the year, a song will average half its current week score. It's a first approximation, naturally, but it should improve as the weeks go by.
This projection is based on the chart week of Aug 15, 2020, assuming 13 weeks remaining (so songs still charting are given 50% of this weeks points for the remaining 13 weeks.)
Things can still changes quite significantly. I doubt The Box or Circles will be on the chart in 12 weeks so they could get a lot fewer point. Blinding Lights may average better than 50% in the remaining weeks (in fact we know it gained a position on tomorrow's chart). And any songs climbing the weekly chart will move up on this chart too. But I wouldn't expect any songs in this list's top ten to be replaced at this point.
|
|
n13l5
New Member
I like to follow the billboard chart predictions on here
Joined: November 2017
Posts: 122
|
Post by n13l5 on Aug 17, 2020 17:34:11 GMT -5
Thank you for the explanation, I admit that im far from an expert in how this pointsystem works No worries, and sorry if I came off as too didactic as well. Thats fine, I didnt get that impression
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2020 21:25:00 GMT -5
I think Bang! will be a hit, and have a similar run to Trampoline. I cannot wait to hear Spectrum Pulse's rant on it if it makes the Year-End list (and most other critics' rants for that matter).
|
|
spoons
New Member
Joined: August 2019
Posts: 303
|
Post by spoons on Aug 17, 2020 22:31:42 GMT -5
Who tf is Trevor Daniel????
|
|
inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
Joined: December 2015
Posts: 2,085
|
Post by inverse on Aug 18, 2020 1:10:58 GMT -5
I think Bang! will be a hit, and have a similar run to Trampoline. I cannot wait to hear Spectrum Pulse 's rant on it if it makes the Year-End list (and most other critics' rants for that matter). by the standards of the 2020 charts your average AJR song barely even registers for the dishonorable mentions
|
|
monkeydluffy
Gold Member
R.I.P. Nipsey Hussle | R.I.P. Juice WRLD | R.I.P. Pop Smoke | R.I.P. King Von
Joined: July 2017
Posts: 534
|
Post by monkeydluffy on Aug 18, 2020 1:58:31 GMT -5
What an accomplishment that would be for Maren Morris if she has the number 5 song of 2020 after a peak of 12. :O
|
|
n13l5
New Member
I like to follow the billboard chart predictions on here
Joined: November 2017
Posts: 122
|
Post by n13l5 on Aug 18, 2020 3:51:31 GMT -5
What an accomplishment that would be for Maren Morris if she has the number 5 song of 2020 after a peak of 12. Pretty rare that a song ends up multible places higher on a year end list than that it peaked, isnt it?
|
|