lights
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Post by lights on Aug 18, 2020 7:45:05 GMT -5
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Post by xtynaaguilera99 on Aug 18, 2020 7:55:54 GMT -5
What an accomplishment that would be for Maren Morris if she has the number 5 song of 2020 after a peak of 12. Pretty rare that a song ends up multible places higher on a year end list than that it peaked, isnt it? If The Bones makes the Top 10, it would be the first song to make the Top 10 in the YE without entering the Top 10 on the Hot 100. Longevity wins 👏🏽
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jab625246
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Post by jab625246 on Aug 18, 2020 8:05:09 GMT -5
Pretty rare that a song ends up multible places higher on a year end list than that it peaked, isnt it? If The Bones makes the Top 10, it would be the first song to make the Top 10 in the YE without entering the Top 10 on the Hot 100. Longevity wins 👏🏽 I Don't Want To Wait by Paula Cole was the last song to peak below the Hot 100 top 10 to make the top 10 of the 1998 Year-End list. Also I think The Bones could be around #13-16 on the 2020 Year-End.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Aug 18, 2020 8:31:57 GMT -5
Lets say hypothetically, all of the new songs (Laugh Now Cry Later, 7 Summers and Midnight Sky) stay in the top 15 until the end of the charting year, what are the odds that they all make the YE list?
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Aug 18, 2020 9:17:34 GMT -5
^They would all make it. Odds are at least of them is a frontloaded song as high debuts tend to be and could drop quickly and missing it.
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Aug 18, 2020 10:47:45 GMT -5
Realizing that Grenade had a larger peak than Uptown Funk is a moment No, it just had the largest peak in 2011 (which was pre-streaming). Uptown Funk had a larger points peak, but was beaten in 2015 by Hello
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Post by The Music Guy in the Group on Aug 18, 2020 11:20:15 GMT -5
It was beaten by Hello? Wasn't Hello chart run in 2015 3 weeks?
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Aug 18, 2020 12:02:20 GMT -5
It was beaten by Hello? Wasn't Hello chart run in 2015 3 weeks? We’re just talking about single week point totals. Think about this: Hello only got 3 weeks on the 2015 chart year, and yet it still ranked #35. Which was largely because in its first week, it got 1 million sales. Uptown Funk was obviously the more massive song overall, but for that one week, Hello was bigger than every other song this decade except Harlem Shake (which got over 100 million streams when the weekly average for top 10 songs was like 5 million)
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strongerq
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Post by strongerq on Aug 18, 2020 12:11:17 GMT -5
Realizing that Grenade had a larger peak than Uptown Funk is a moment No, it just had the largest peak in 2011 (which was pre-streaming). Uptown Funk had a larger points peak, but was beaten in 2015 by Hello But based on this Grenade has a larger weekly peak than Uptown Funk.
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spicymapping
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ahoe s2e11 out now
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Post by spicymapping on Aug 18, 2020 13:16:41 GMT -5
fornite dans
TL,DR: Locked: Go Crazy, One Margarita Added: After Party
1. The Box (=) - 1,034,494 2. Blinding Lights (=) - 945,085 3. Circles (=) - 933,778 4. Don't Start Now (=) - 792,102 5. Life Is Good (=) - 684,288 6. Memories (=) - 646,803 7. Adore You (=) - 624,164 8. Say So (=) - 616,971 9. Someone You Loved (=) - 602,539 10. The Bones (=) - 591,096 11. Rockstar (+2) - 560,117 12. Dance Monkey (-1) - 551,676 13. Savage (+1) - 541,563 14. Roxanne (-2) - 529,982 15. Intentions (+1) - 523,097 16. Everything I Wanted (-1) - 519,190 17. Falling (=) - 482,644 18. 10,000 Hours (=) - 453,078 19. Hot Girl Bummer (=) - 439,701 20. Ballin' (=) - 434,714 21. I Hope (=) - 424,555 22. Whats Poppin (+1) - 412,868 23. Blueberry Faygo (+1) - 401,633 24. Toosie Slide (-2) - 398,172 25. Heartless (=) - 384,436 26. Bop (=) - 379,714 27. Roses (+4) - 372,460 28. Lose You To Love Me (-1) - 369,601 29. Good As Hell (-1) - 365,788 30. My Oh My (-1) - 360,688 31. High Fashion (-1) - 356,066 32. No Guidance (=) - 346,739 33. Chasin' You (=) - 324,799 34. Watermelon Sugar (+2) - 298,307 35. Before You Go (=) - 298,075 36. Woah (-2) - 291,569 37. Death Bed (+4) - 271,271 38. Señorita (-1) - 268,914 39. RITMO (-1) - 268,633 40. Break My Heart (+4) - 265,122 41. Nobody But You (-2) - 263,161 42. Highest In The Room (-2) - 261,830 43. Heart On Ice (-1) - 256,549 44. Bad Guy (-1) - 251,292 45. Sunday Best (=) - 237,389 46. Trampoline (=) - 230,462 47. Rain On Me (+3) - 224,339 48. Hard To Forget (+4) - 220,113 49. Truth Hurts (-2) - 219,581 50. I Hope You're Happy Now (-2) - 216,884 51. Godzilla (-2) - 215,131 52. Yummy (-1) - 211,482 53. Emotionally Scarred (+3) - 208,579 54. One Man Band (-1) - 207,054 55. Suicidal (-1) - 199,928 56. Sum 2 Prove (-1) - 199,514 57. Supalonely (+4) - 198,221 58. Party Girl (+10) - 196,365 59. Bandit (-2) - 195,536 60. Dior (-2) - 194,354 61. Stuck With U (+6) - 191,224 62. The Scotts (-3) - 189,249 63. You Should Be Sad (-3) - 188,900 64. Only Human (-2) - 188,093 65. Hot (-2) - 187,412 66. Homesick (-2) - 185,920 67. Panini (-2) - 185,395 68. Does To Me (-2) - 185,175 69. All I Want For Christmas Is You (=) - 184,254 70. We Paid (+6) - 182,143 71. P*$$y Fairy (-1) - 181,777 72. Bluebird (+2) - 181,443 73. Go Crazy (+9) - 178,631 74. One Margarita (+6) - 176,356 75. Juicy (-6) - 175,319 76. Walk Em Down (-4) - 173,813 77. Slide (-4) - 172,916 78. Even Though I'm Leaving (-3) - 170,309
--PROJECTED CUTOFF - 170K POINTS--
79. Tusa (-2) - 166,038 80. Best On Earth (-2) - 163,598 81. Out West (-2) - 163,505 82. More Hearts Than Mine (-1) - 161,449 83. Kinfolks (=) - 157,333 84. Die From A Broken Heart (+5) - 153,853 - WA: 2 85. If The World Was Ending (+1) - 153,669 - WA: 2 86. I Don't Care (-2) - 151,419 87. Beer Can't Fix (-2) - 149,360 88. Heartless (-1) - 142,660 89. Ridin' Roads (-1) - 142,258 90. The Bigger Picture (+5) - 140,936 - WA: 3 91. Be Kind (+1) - 138,963 - WA: 7 92. Savage Love (+23) - 137,683 - WA: 2 93. Slow Dance In a Parking Lot (-3) - 136,724 94. Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree (-3) - 134,478 95. After A Few (-2) - 131,613 96. In Your Eyes (-2) - 131,284 97. Be A Light (+13) - 128,675 - WA: 6 98. Vete (-2) - 128,567 99. Righteous (+8) - 128,088 - WA: 8 100. Lover (-3) - 126,747
101. I Love My Country (+13) - 126,327 - WA: 5 118. God Whispered Your Name (+4) - 109,206 - WA: 9 121. After Party (NEW) - 104,348 - WA: 12
--TRACKING CUTOFF - 100K POINTS--
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Aug 18, 2020 13:19:29 GMT -5
A bit different this week. My year-end stats now include a projected final year-end position in the last column. I posted this as a separate chart last week (actually yesterday) and some people liked the idea.
The "On Track" column is determined by projecting that any currently charted songs will maintain a fraction of this week's points over the remaining weeks of the Billboard calendar year. Last week those figures were 13 weeks at an average of 50% of of that week's points. This week we're down to 12 weeks but increasing the average to 52.5%. Next week I'll change to 11 weeks at 55%, after increase the percentage by 5% per week to a maximum of 90%.
I'm including any songs currently in the year-to-date top 100 and the projected year-end top 110. As you can see, WAP is currently on track to get to #52 for the year. That will improve if the song stays #1 next week, or the projection will drop if the song takes a tumble (like Cardigan or My Future).
So, for the week of August 22, 2020, here's my calculations and prognostications:
So it continues to look like ROCKSTAR and Adore will eventually make the top 10, and Blinding Lights is currently on track for #2. The big question is how soon Circles will fall out of the top 25 on the Hot 100 (and therefore off the chart) and how long will radio support The Weeknd (I suspect quite a while yet). I think we should know in the next 3 weeks which of those two will end up #1 on my final prediction.
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Soundcl🕤ck
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Post by Soundcl🕤ck on Aug 18, 2020 13:46:28 GMT -5
I mean, it's hard to compare pre-streaming and streaming era
peak weeks
Grenade: sales (559,000) radio (89 million)
Uptown Funk: sales (365,000) radio (170 million) streaming (24,5 million)
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85la
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Post by 85la on Aug 18, 2020 14:12:59 GMT -5
What an accomplishment that would be for Maren Morris if she has the number 5 song of 2020 after a peak of 12. Pretty rare that a song ends up multible places higher on a year end list than that it peaked, isnt it? Yep, and if it does place in the year-end top 5, it will be the first non-top 10 single to do so in the Soundscan era, but either way it's looking to be the first such song to place higher than #10 (which the #11-peaking I Don't Want to Wait did in 1998)!
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Aug 18, 2020 14:23:20 GMT -5
I think we all know that The Bones won't be ending the year in the top 5.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Aug 18, 2020 14:34:43 GMT -5
What songs are looking like they're gonna repeat? I say Blinding Lights and maybe, Die from a Broken Heart.
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n13l5
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I like to follow the billboard chart predictions on here
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Post by n13l5 on Aug 18, 2020 15:29:42 GMT -5
What songs are looking like they're gonna repeat? I say Blinding Lights and maybe, Die from a Broken Heart. I think and fear Before You Go as well
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Post by After Minutes on Aug 18, 2020 16:04:18 GMT -5
What songs are looking like they're gonna repeat? I say Blinding Lights and maybe, Die from a Broken Heart. Mood by 24kGoldn and Iann Dior
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on Aug 18, 2020 17:31:54 GMT -5
If The Bones makes the Top 10, it would be the first song to make the Top 10 in the YE without entering the Top 10 on the Hot 100. Longevity wins 👏🏽 I Don't Want To Wait by Paula Cole was the last song to peak below the Hot 100 top 10 to make the top 10 of the 1998 Year-End list. Also I think The Bones could be around #13-16 on the 2020 Year-End. yes and there were several before too, the ones I can remember off the top of my head are I Fall to Pieces by Patsy Cline in 1961 (#11[?] weekly peak, #2 YE) and Why Me by Kris Kristofferson in 1973 (#16 weekly peak, #5 YE)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2020 17:59:53 GMT -5
What songs are looking like they're gonna repeat? I say Blinding Lights and maybe, Die from a Broken Heart. WAP is a practically guaranteed repeat if it keeps up its momentum.
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Post by waluigionascooter on Aug 18, 2020 18:06:15 GMT -5
What songs are looking like they're gonna repeat? I say Blinding Lights and maybe, Die from a Broken Heart. Hear me out: "Laugh Now Cry Later" by Lil Durk and Drake
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inverse
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Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on Aug 18, 2020 20:30:08 GMT -5
What songs are looking like they're gonna repeat? I say Blinding Lights and maybe, Die from a Broken Heart. Blinding Lights is gonna run into a problem which is that by the beginning of the chart year it's gonna be at 49 weeks. It would need to be one of the longest stays above 25 ever to make another year end.
Before You Go is gonna run into a similar problem. It'll be at 40 giving it 12 weeks to try and pull a Believer.
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sirskimask
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Post by sirskimask on Aug 18, 2020 22:07:46 GMT -5
What songs are looking like they're gonna repeat? I say Blinding Lights and maybe, Die from a Broken Heart. WAP (if it holds steady) and ROCKSTAR are the only ones I got for now. Way too early to know for sure Circles totally coming for the threepeat btw
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Aug 18, 2020 22:18:47 GMT -5
What songs are looking like they're gonna repeat? I say Blinding Lights and maybe, Die from a Broken Heart. Savage Love
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Aug 19, 2020 2:42:34 GMT -5
Week 40/52 (76.9%) Formula: Paid/1250 + Free/1875 + Programmed/2500 + Radio/6000 + Sales/5 Cutoff: 175,000 points (margin of error +/- 7.5%.. 188.1k - 161.9k) Locked this week: Walk Em Down*, Bluebird, We Paid, Party Girl
Top 10 1 Cardi B, Megan Thee Stallion - WAP 89,760 2 DaBaby ft. Roddy Ricch - ROCKSTAR 33,733 3 The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 27,197 4 Jack Harlow ft. DaBaby, Tory Lanez, Lil Wayne - WHATS POPPIN 26,683 5 Harry Styles - Watermelon Sugar 24,407 6 SAINt JHN - Roses (Imanbek Remix) 22,340 7 Jawsh 685, Jason Derulo - Savage Love 21,637 8 Juice WRLD, The Weeknd - Smile 19,507 9 Chris Brown, Young Thug - Go Crazy 19,337 10 Lewis Capaldi - Before You Go 18,387
1 1 Roddy Ricch - The Box 1,127,869 2 2 Post Malone - Circles 1,048,958 3 3 The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 984,402 4 4 Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now 843,028 6 5 Future ft. Drake - Life Is Good 738,915 5 6 Maroon 5 - Memories 732,860 7 7 Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 687,824 8 8 Harry Styles - Adore You 657,198 10 9 Maren Morris - The Bones 622,152 12 10 Doja Cat - Say So 619,448
9 11 Tones & I - Dance Monkey 614,186 11 12 Arizona Zervas - ROXANNE 607,066 13 13 Billie Eilish - everything I wanted 570,559 17 14 DaBaby ft. Roddy Ricch - ROCKSTAR 549,496 14 15 Megan Thee Stallion ft. Beyonce - Savage 545,383 15 16 Justin Bieber ft. Quavo - Intentions 537,172 16 17 Trevor Daniel - Falling 516,988 18 18 Dan + Shay, Justin Bieber - 10,000 Hours 514,214 19 19 blackbear - hot girl bummer 482,941 20 20 Mustard, Roddy Ricch - Ballin' 482,049
22 21 Gabby Barrett - I Hope 445,006 21 22 The Weeknd - Heartless 429,139 23 23 DaBaby - BOP 422,522 28 24 Jack Harlow ft. DaBaby, Tory Lanez, Lil Wayne - WHATS POPPIN 422,148 24 25 Selena Gomez - Lose You to Love Me 419,549 25 26 Lizzo - Good As Hell 417,347 26 27 Lil Mosey - Blueberry Faygo 416,359 27 28 Drake - Toosie Slide 403,043 29 29 Chris Brown ft. Drake - No Guidance 394,567 30 30 Camila Cabello ft. DaBaby - My Oh My 391,849
32 31 SAINt JHN - Roses (Imanbek Remix) 384,884 31 32 Roddy Ricch ft. Mustard - High Fashion 378,715 34 33 Morgan Wallen - Chasin You 327,057 33 34 Lil Baby - Woah 326,090 35 35 Shawn Mendes, Camila Cabello - Senorita 312,452 36 36 Travis Scott - HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 299,713 42 37 Harry Styles - Watermelon Sugar 295,193 41 38 Lewis Capaldi - Before You Go 294,843 37 39 The Black Eyed Peas, J Balvin - RITMO (Bad Boys for Life) 290,221 38 40 Billie Eilish - bad guy 281,570
39 41 Blake Shelton, Gwen Stefani - Nobody But You 280,813 40 42 Rod Wave - Heart on Ice 280,382 44 43 Powfu ft. beabadoobee - death bed 271,480 45 44 Dua Lipa - Break My Heart 270,113 43 45 SHAED - Trampoline 263,181 46 46 Lizzo - Truth Hurts 250,374 47 47 Surfaces - Sunday Best 239,738 48 48 Eminem ft. Juice WRLD - Godzilla 238,731 49 49 Justin Bieber - Yummy 236,514 50 50 Old Dominion - One Man Band 234,953
51 51 Lil Baby - Sum 2 Prove 221,451 52 52 Juice WRLD, YoungBoy Never Broke Again - Bandit 221,407 53 53 YNW Melly, Juice WRLD - Suicidal 218,732 60 54 Sam Hunt - Hard to Forget 216,521 54 55 Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You 215,136 62 56 Lady Gaga, Ariana Grande - Rain On Me 213,990 55 57 Lil Nas X - Panini 213,292 56 58 Carly Pearce, Lee Brice - I Hope You're Happy Now 212,991 57 59 Jonas Brothers - Only Human 211,437 58 60 Young Thug ft. Gunna - Hot 210,716
63 61 Lil Baby - Emotionally Scarred 208,219 59 62 Halsey - You should be sad 207,971 61 63 Pop Smoke - Dior 206,475 68 64 BENEE ft. Gus Dapperton - Supalonely 200,704 64 65 Kane Brown - Homesick 198,405 65 66 THE SCOTTS, Travis Scott, Kid Cudi - THE SCOTTS 197,612 66 67 Doja Cat, Tyga - Juicy 195,710 67 68 Luke Combs ft. Eric Church - Does to Me 191,920 69 69 Luke Combs - Even Though I'm Leaving 190,503 73 70 StaySolidRocky - Party Girl 187,292
72 71 Ariana Grande, Justin Bieber - stuck with u 186,920 70 72 Jhene Aiko - P*$$Y FAIRY (OTW) 186,021 71 73 H.E.R. ft. YG - Slide 185,016 81 74 Lil Baby, 42 Dugg - We Paid 179,396 82 75 Miranda Lambert - Bluebird 176,369 74 76 NLE Choppa ft. Roddy Ricch - Walk Em Down 175,402 ^^LOCKED CUTOFF: 175k^^ 75 77 Karol G, Nicki Minaj - Tusa 174,612 76 78 Russ ft. BIA - BEST ON EARTH 173,766 77 79 Sam Hunt - Kinfolks 173,605 85 80 Chris Brown, Young Thug - Go Crazy 172,621
83 81 Luke Bryan - One Margarita 171,882 78 82 JACKBOYS ft. Young Thug - OUT WEST 169,642 79 83 Ed Sheeran ft. Justin Bieber - I Don't Care 169,521 80 84 Ingrid Andress - More Hearts than Mine 169,433 84 85 Thomas Rhett ft. Jon Pardi - Beer Can't Fix 155,987 88 86 JP Saxe ft. Julia Michaels - If the World Was Ending 153,310 86 87 Brenda Lee - Rockin Around the Christmas Tree 151,172 98 88 Maddie & Tae - Die From a Broken Heart 150,375 87 89 Dustin Lynch - Ridin Roads 149,712 89 90 Diplo, Morgan Wallen - Heartless 143,973
90 91 Taylor Swift - Lover 143,226 91 92 Lil Nas X ft. Billy Ray Cyrus - Old Town Road 141,402 92 93 Halsey - Graveyard 140,614 93 94 Jonas Brothers - Sucker 140,428 100 95 Marshmello, Halsey - Be Kind 139,270 94 96 The Weeknd - In Your Eyes 139,005 95 97 Jordan Davis - Slow Dancing in a Parking Lot 138,271 96 98 Travis Denning - After a Few 137,764 97 99 Lady Gaga - Stupid Love 136,710 99 100 Jonas Brothers - What a Man Gotta Do 135,405
120 101 Jawsh 685, Jason Derulo - Savage Love (Laxed - Siren Beat) 134,185 101 102 Jon Pardi - Heartache Medication 133,115 110 103 Lil Baby - The Bigger Picture 132,481 102 104 Wale ft. Jeremih - On Chill 132,032 103 105 Lil Uzi Vert - Futsal Shuffle 2020 131,481 104 106 DaBaby - VIBEZ 131,133 105 107 Brett Young - Catch 130,916 106 108 6ix9ine - GOOBA 129,669 107 109 Luke Bryan - What She Wants Tonight 127,853 108 110 Bad Bunny - Vete 127,550
114 111 Thomas Rhett ft. Reba McEntire, Hillary Scott, Chris Tomlin, Keith Urban - Be a Light 126,503 113 112 Juice WRLD - Righteous 125,461 117 113 Florida Georgia Line - I Love My Country 124,110 109 114 Burl Ives - A Holly Jolly Christmas 123,221 111 115 Jake Owen - Homemade 121,691 112 116 Lil Tecca - Ran$om 121,004 115 117 Bad Bunny - Yo Perreo Sola 117,896 116 118 Bobby Helms - Jingle Bell Rock 117,281 118 119 Summer Walker ft. Bryson Tiller - Playing Games 114,654 119 120 Jason Aldean - We Back 113,152
121 121 Kenny Chesney - Here and Now 112,012 122 122 Chris Brown ft. Gunna - Heat 110,796 123 123 Demi Lovato - I Love Me 108,954 129 124 Keith Urban - God Whispered Your Name 106,810 131 125 Don Toliver - After Party 104,365 124 126 Andy Williams - It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year 102,565 125 127 PARTYNEXTDOOR ft. Rihanna - BELIEVE IT 101,648 126 128 Drake ft. Giveon - Chicago Freestyle 100,915 127 129 Lady Antebellum - What If I Never Get Over You 100,651 128 130 Don Toliver - No Idea 100,322
130 131 Ed Sheeran ft. Khalid - Beautiful People 99,848 132 132 YoungBoy Never Broke Again - Make No Sense 98,337 133 133 Idina Menzel & AURORA - Into the Unknown 98,075 134 134 Post Malone ft. Ozzy Osbourne, Travis Scott - Take What You Want 97,633 135 135 NLE Choppa - Camelot 96,862 151 136 Juice WRLD, Marshmello - Come & Go 95,461 136 137 twenty one pilots - Level of Concern 94,846 137 138 Lil Uzi Vert - That Way 94,671 138 139 Wham! - Last Christmas 92,435 139 140 Ed Sheeran ft. Camila Cabello, Cardi B - South of the Border 90,904
156 141 Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby, DaBaby - For the Night 90,519 NEW 142 Cardi B, Megan Thee Stallion - WAP 89,760 147 143 Young T, Bugsey ft. Headie One - Don't Rush 89,226 140 144 Thomas Rhett - Remember You Young 89,164 141 145 Khalid - Talk 87,827 142 146 Roddy Ricch ft. Gunna - Start Wit Me 87,743 143 147 Lil Baby, 42 Dugg - Grace 87,070 144 148 DaniLeigh ft. Chris Brown - Easy 86,307 145 149 Riley Green - I Wish Grandpas Never Died 86,131 146 150 Summer Walker ft. Usher - Come Thru 84,094
163 151 Juice WRLD - Wishing Well 83,219 161 153 Jason Aldean - Got What I Got 82,635 165 160 LOCASH - One Big Country Song 76,655
172 161 Pop Smoke ft. 50 Cent, Roddy Ricch - The Woo 76,594 162 162 Doja Cat ft. Gucci Mane - Like That 76,378 183 167 Taylor Swift - cardigan 73,289 187 168 DJ Khaled, Drake - Popstar 72,511
184 171 Kane Brown - Cool Again 69,974 189 172 Megan thee Stallion - Girls in the Hood 69,405 171 174 Migos ft. YoungBoy Never Broke Again - Need It 69,131 181 175 Justin Moore - Why We Drink 68,933 190 176 Chris Janson - Done 67,583 211 177 Rod Wave ft. ATR Son Son - Rags 2 Riches 67,018 188 180 Rod Wave - Girl of My Dreams 65,767
194 182 Lee Brice - One of Them Girls 64,194 191 183 Black Eyed Peas, Ozuma, J.Rey Soul - Mamacita 64,130 193 188 surf mesa ft. Emilee - ily 62,479
196 191 Gunna ft. Young Thug - DOLLAZ ON MY HEAD 61,107 222 195 Pop Smoke ft. Lil Tjay - Mood Swings 59,967
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2020 4:54:57 GMT -5
Here's week 40 of my 2020 year end predictions. I lowered the locked cutoff to 1850 points since we are getting closer to the end of the year.
Locked This Week: Stuck With U, Panini, Party Girl, & Does To Me
Will Lock Next Week: We Paid, Bluebird, One Margarita, & Go Crazy
Dropouts: Falling 4896 (Will make the 2020 year end list. Projected spot is #22.)
Walk Em Down 1778 (Might make the 2020 year end list. Projected spot is #97.)
1 The Box 10530 (+103) 2 Circles 9708 (+165) 3 Blinding Lights 9582 (+260) 4 Don't Start Now 7987 (+133) 5 Life Is Good 6955 (+125) 6 Memories 6490 - 7 Adore You 6190 (+168) 8 Someone You Loved 6099 - 9 Say So 5996 (+119) 10 The Bones 5895 (+129) 11 Dance Monkey 5509 - 12 ROCKSTAR 5365 (+330) 13 Roxanne 5301 - 14 Savage 5238 (+161) 15 Everything I Wanted 5181 - 16 Intentions 5145 (+123) 17 Falling 4896 - 18 10,000 Hours 4534 - 19 Hot Girl Bummer 4442 - 20 Ballin' 4311 - 21 I Hope 4269 (+177) 22 WHATS POPPIN 4065 (+255) 23 Blueberry Faygo 4011 (+153) 24 Toosie Slide 3992 (+72) 25 BOP 3807 - 26 Heartless 3779 - 27 Lose You To Love Me 3721 - 28 Good As Hell 3700 - 29 Roses 3671 (+220) 30 My Oh My 3643 - 31 No Guidance 3520 - 32 High Fashion 3464 - 33 Chasin' You 3207 (+109) 34 Woah 2935 - 35 Watermelon Sugar 2922 (+250) 36 Before You Go 2905 (+180) 37 Senorita 2768 - 38 Heart On Ice 2714 - 39 RITMO (Bad Boys For Life) 2710 - 40 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 2694 - 41 Nobody But You 2687 - 42 Death Bed 2624 (+135) 43 Break My Heart 2579 (+171) 44 Bad Guy 2559 - 45 Trampoline 2379 - 46 Sunday Best 2299 - 47 Godzilla 2252 - 48 Truth Hurts 2231 - 49 Rain On Me 2212 (+113) 50 One Man Band 2207 - 51 Yummy 2171 - 52 Emotionally Scarred 2153 (+100) 53 I Hope You're Happy Now 2146 - 54 Hard To Forget 2141 (+102) 55 Suicidal 2118 - 56 Sum 2 Prove 2104 - 57 Dior 2046 - 58 Bandit 2021 - 59 Supalonely 2021 (+93) 60 Only Human 1965 - 61 P*$$y Fairy (OTW) 1958 - 62 Homesick 1956 - 63 THE SCOTTS 1956 - 64 You Should Be Sad 1954 - 65 Juicy 1940 - 66 Hot 1928 - 67 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1912 - 68 Stuck With U 1884 (+64) 69 Panini 1880 - 70 Party Girl 1874 (+117) 71 Does To Me 1868 -
- - - - - LOCKED CUTOFF (1850 Points) - - - - -
72 We Paid 1833 (+121) 73 Bluebird 1820 (+87) 74 Slide 1819 - 75 Even Though I'm Leaving 1804 - 76 Walk Em Down 1778 - 77 OUT WEST 1768 -
- - - - - - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - - - - - -
78 One Margarita 1766 (+147) 79 Tusa 1755 - 80 Go Crazy 1750 (+187) 81 Kinfolks 1714 - 82 BEST ON EARTH 1710 - 83 More Hearts Than Mine 1651 - 84 If The World Was Ending 1626 (+97) 85 Die From A Broken Heart 1616 (+144) 86 I Don't Care 1615 - 87 Beer Can't Fix 1556 - 88 Ridin' Roads 1529 -
- - - - - MINIMUM CUTOFF (1500 Points) - - - - -
Be A Light 1398 (+77) Be Kind 1381 (+50) The Bigger Picture 1364 (+99) I Love My Country 1342 (+90) Savage Love 1327 (+200) Righteous 1300 (+56) Don't Rush 998 (+60) Come And Go 955 (+156) For The Night 934 (+150) Got What I Got 901 (+98) WAP 900 (+900) Like That 847 (+89) Wishing Well 839 (+131) The Woo 808 (+127) Cool Again 784 (+105) POPSTAR 738 (+141) Girls In The Hood 729 (+115) Cardigan 728 (+138) Mamacita 724 (+70) Rags2Riches 710 (+174) Mood Swings 644 (+159) More Than My Hometown 594 (+73) Said Sum 545 (+84) Lovin' On You 491 (+85) Be Like That 447 (+111) Tap In 406 (+101) Nobody's Love 320 (+104) My Future 307 (+107) Smile 193 (+193)
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Dadude#0839
New Member
i stan olivia rodrigo
Joined: August 2019
Posts: 162
Pronouns: He/Him
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Post by Dadude#0839 on Aug 19, 2020 9:14:38 GMT -5
The bones will be the next i don’t want to wait. I’m calling it
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lifeofaguardian
New Member
Almost definitely not a furry
Joined: April 2019
Posts: 123
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Aug 19, 2020 10:08:47 GMT -5
Week 40 - 22-08-2020We've got ourselves a big number one debut this week, one that's even expected to stick around (I know, crazy idea). A lot of songs that have stuck around for a while now are slowly creeping up to the cutoff and as such have been added to the playlist. A notable song is If The World Was Ending, which is currently at 20 weeks and just barely under the cutoff - it just needs one week to cross it, but if it gets unlucky, it will join More Hearts Than Mine in falling barely short of the year-end. Current Status (100 biggest songs so far, 167.000 points is my expected cutoff):Added this week:Jawsh 685 x Jason Derulo - Savage Love (Laxed - Siren Beat) Thomas Rhett ft. Reba McEntire, Hillary Scott, Chris Tomlin & Keith Urban - Be A Light Drop-Outs this week:DaBaby - VIBEZ Jonas Brothers - Sucker Songs Locked this week:Chris Brown & Young Thug - Go Crazy Luke Bryan - One Margarita Currently lowest Locked song:Russ & BIA - BEST ON EARTH Songs predicted to lock within 5 weeks:1 week:JP Saxe ft. Julia Michaels - If The World Was Ending Maddie & Tae - Die From A Broken Heart 2 weeks:Jawsh 685 x Jason Derulo - Savage Love (Laxed - Siren Beat) 3 weeks:Lil Baby - The Bigger Picture 4 weeks:Florida Georgia Line - I Love My Country 5 weeks:Marshmello & Halsey - Be Kind Thomas Rhett ft. Reba McEntire, Hillary Scott, Chris Tomlin & Keith Urban - Be A Light Juice WRLD x Marshmelo - Come & Go Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby & DaBaby - For The Night Predicted Positions for Locked Drop-Outs:See image for all drop-outs #24: Trevor Daniel - Falling #96: NLE Choppa ft. Roddy Ricch - Walk Em Down Predictions (Songs must have 158.000 points when adding multiple weeks of the points gained last week to their total):
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2020 10:46:13 GMT -5
Here's the projected cutoff for the rest of the year assuming all songs stay in their respective chart positions and no new big songs debut.
Week 41 (78.85%) 77 Even Though I'm Leaving 1804 78 WAP 1800 79 Walk Em Down 1778 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 80 OUT WEST 1768 81 Die From A Broken Heart 1760 82 Tusa 1755
Week 42 (80.77%)
79 Slide 1819 80 Even Though I'm Leaving 1804 81 Walk Em Down 1778 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -
82 OUT WEST 1768 83 Tusa 1755 84 Savage Love 1727 Week 43 (82.69%) 81 Even Though I'm Leaving 1804 82 Walk Em Down 1778 83 OUT WEST 1768 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 84 Tusa 1755 85 Kinfolks 1714 86 BEST ON EARTH 1710
Week 44 (84.62%) 83 OUT WEST 1768 84 The Bigger Picture 1760 85 Tusa 1755
- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 86 Kinfolks 1714 87 BEST ON EARTH 1710 88 More Hearts Than Mine 1651
Week 45 (86.54%) 85 Tusa 1755 86 Come And Go 1735 87 Kinfolks 1714 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 88 BEST ON EARTH 1710 89 For The Night 1684 90 More Hearts Than Mine 1651
Week 46 (88.46%) 86 OUT WEST 1768 87 Tusa 1755 88 Rags2Riches 1754 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 89 Kinfolks 1714 90 BEST ON EARTH 1710 91 More Hearts Than Mine 1651
Week 47 (90.38%)
88 Mood Swings 1757 89 Wishing Well 1756 90 Tusa 1755 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -
91 POPSTAR 1725 92 Kinfolks 1714 93 BEST ON EARTH 1710 Week 48 (92.31%) 90 Even Though I'm Leaving 1804 91 Walk Em Down 1778 92 OUT WEST 1768
- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 93 Tusa 1755 94 Smile 1737 95 Kinfolks 1714
Week 49 (94.23%) 92 Got What I Got 1783 93 Walk Em Down 1778 94 OUT WEST 1768 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 95 Girls In The Hood 1764 96 Tusa 1755 97 Cool Again 1729
Week 50 (96.15%) 94 Even Though I'm Leaving 1804 95 Walk Em Down 1778 96 OUT WEST 1768 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 97 Tusa 1755 98 Kinfolks 1714 99 BEST ON EARTH 1710
Week 51 (98.08%) 96 OUT WEST 1768 97 Tusa 1755 98 Kinfolks 1714 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -
99 BEST ON EARTH 1710 100 Be Like That 1668 101 More Hearts Than Mine 1651
Week 52 (100%) 98 Tusa 1755 99 Kinfolks 1714 100 BEST ON EARTH 1710 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 101 More Hearts Than Mine 1651 102 Like That 1648 103 Tap In 1618
PS: I removed Be Kind and Righteous from this analysis because I just don't see them lasting for a full 20 weeks given their current trajectory.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2020 12:12:34 GMT -5
Wow, WAP making the Year-End Top 10 with only 13 weeks of charting!
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rockgolf
2x Platinum Member
Pop music fanatic since the days of 7" 45 RPM records.
Joined: August 2018
Posts: 2,041
Pronouns: he/him/his
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Post by rockgolf on Aug 19, 2020 12:31:19 GMT -5
Wow, WAP making the Year-End Top 10 with only 13 weeks of charting! That presumes WAP stays #1 (with the same points every week) until the end of the Billboard year, which I don't think is remotely likely. It will probably end up somewhere between 11 & 35 depending on how it sustains.
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