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Post by ๐ฒ๐ฝ'๐ผ.๐ฐ๐ฟ on Mar 30, 2020 20:40:18 GMT -5
Knew it! "Homesick" was gonna be locked by next week, I just removed it before posting the previous comment. I was about to be scared by "Godzilla" possibly not entering the YE, but I realized that it is far from 20 weeks, so even if it drops easily, it still be safe.
The Black Eyed Peas and Eminem having a song in the YE in 2020, and I thought 2019 was a weird year in the charts.
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tanooki
Diamond Member
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Post by tanooki on Mar 30, 2020 20:42:32 GMT -5
imo the black eyed peas are a way more understandable comeback than billy ray cyrus and tool (ik tool didnt make the YE list but fear inoculum still fucking charted)
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2020 21:05:05 GMT -5
Probably a long shot (and I highly doubt this will happen) but what if Kinfolks somehow re-charts due to Sam Hunt's album being released?
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2020 21:51:01 GMT -5
Here's week 20 of my 2020 year end predictions. I'll probably add a more in depth analysis for these predictions later when I have the time to.
Locked This Week: My Oh My & Yummy
Will Lock Next Week: Heart On Ice
Dropouts: Good As Hell 3719 (Will make the 2020 year end list. Projected spot is #38.)
Futsal Shuffle 2020 1267 (Will miss the 2020 year end list.)
We Back 1179 (Will miss the 2020 year end list.) I Wish Grandpas Never Died 896 (Will miss the 2020 year end list.)
1 The Box 6072 (+330) 2 Circles 5715 (+245) 3 Someone You Loved 4815 (+195) 4 Memories 4767 (+180) 5 Roxanne 4649 (+200) 6 Dance Monkey 4377 (+175) 7 10,000 Hours 4049 (+155) 8 Don't Start Now 3947 (+280) 9 Lose You To Love Me 3757 (+121) 10 Good As Hell 3719 -11 Life Is Good 3510 (+240) 12 Ballin' 3492 (+146) 13 BOP 3430 (+136) 14 Everything I Wanted 3366 (+190) 15 Blinding Lights 3206 (+400) 16 Heartless 3171 (+250) 17 No Guidance 3169 (+132) 18 Hot Girl Bummer 2939 (+185) 19 Woah 2890 (+125) 20 Senorita 2777 -21 The Bones 2751 (+165) 22 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 2613 -23 Bad Guy 2588 -24 Adore You 2521 (+215) 25 Falling 2431 (+140) 26 Trampoline 2391 - 27 Truth Hurts 2256 -28 One Man Band 2208 -29 My Oh My 2054 (+160) 30 Bandit 2029 - 31 Yummy 2007 (+71)
- - - - - LOCKED CUTOFF (2000 Points) - - - - -
32 Heart On Ice 1976 (+124) 33 Only Human 1963 - 34 Hot 1945 - 35 Juicy 1937 -36 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1912 - 37 Panini 1895 -38 Suicidal 1851 (+130) - - - - - - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - - - - - -
39 Homesick 1805 (+126) 40 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 -41 RITMO (Bad Boys For Life) 1767 (+144) 42 High Fashion 1732 (+129) 43 Kinfolks 1710 -44 I Don't Care 1612 -45 Godzilla 1548 (+127) - - - - - TRACKING CUTOFF (1500 Points) - - - - -
46 Tusa 1479 (+92) 47 You Should Be Sad 1468 (+134) 48 Intentions 1440 (+210) 49 Say So 1399 (+205) 50 BEST ON EARTH 1397 (+112) 51 I Hope 1346 (+138) 52 Sum 2 Prove 1334 (+100) 53 Slide 1324 (+114) 54 What A Man Gotta Do 1218 (+84) 55 What She Wants Tonight 1094 (+122) 56 Nobody But You 1037 (+123) 57 More Hearts Than Mine 1010 (+107) 58 Slow Dance In A Parking Lot 874 (+118) 59 Blueberry Faygo 774 (+128) 60 Chasin' You 737 (+110) 61 Stupid Love 705 (+142) 62 WHATS POPPIN 579 (+105) 63 Before You Go 544 (+77) 64 Savage 211 (+150) 65 In Your Eyes 170 (+170) 66 Roses 108 (+108)
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lights
Charting
https://hot100reviews.home.blog/
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Posts: 397
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Post by lights on Mar 31, 2020 6:43:23 GMT -5
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lights
Charting
https://hot100reviews.home.blog/
Joined: August 2019
Posts: 397
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Post by lights on Mar 31, 2020 6:54:24 GMT -5
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rockgolf
2x Platinum Member
Pop music fanatic since the days of 7" 45 RPM records.
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Post by rockgolf on Mar 31, 2020 8:08:43 GMT -5
So some random thoughts before posting my most recent estimations of the year-end: - This chart is dated April. That's the SIXTH month of the Billboard year which now starts in early November. We are approaching being halfway thru the year.
- The average number of people who share songwriting credit on big hits these days is so large, that such gatherings could be disqualified as too large for public safety.
- Who will be the first recent pop star to die from COVID-19? There will be probably more than one. Joe Diffie doesn't count as pop. Or recent.
- I miss the middling hit. Songs these days tend to flash like flares and disappear on the charts or hang on forever.
- As a result, the year-end chart moves very slowly. How slow? This week Jingle Bell Rock stayed steady on the chart at #79. And there's a reasonably good chance nothing next week that was below it will pass it. Kinda find that sad.
- One of the biggest determinants on chart position these days is the sequence of tracks on big new albums. Excluding the already-singles, The Weeknd's debuts are just the order they appear on the album more or less.
- Looks like The Box will return to #1 on the Hot 100 next week, which is the only probable way it will climb, at least temporarily, over Circles on this chart. Circles could spend another 2 months in the top 10 at the speed (or lack thereof) at which it's dropping and I expect it to be #1 on my list at the end of the calendar year.
Anyway, as Casey Kasem used to say, now on with the countdown, this for the Hot 100 chart dated April 4, 2020:
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spicymapping
Platinum Member
ahoe s2e11 out now
Joined: December 2018
Posts: 1,116
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Post by spicymapping on Mar 31, 2020 8:51:36 GMT -5
i guess we not back
TL, DR: Locked: Heart On Ice, High Fashion, Suicidal Added: What She Wants Tonight
1. Circles (=) 2. The Box (=) 3. Someone You Loved (=) 4. Memories (=) 5. Roxanne (=) 6. Dance Monkey (=) 7. 10,000 Hours (=) 8. Don't Start Now (+2) 9. Good As Hell (-1) 10. Lose You To Love Me (-1) 11. Ballin' (=) 12. Bop (=) 13. Everything I Wanted (=) 14. Life Is Good (=) 15. Heartless (+1) 16. No Guidance (-1) 17. Blinding Lights (+2) 18. Woah (=) 19. Hot Girl Bummer (+1) 20. Seรฑorita (-3) 21. The Bones (+1) 22. Highest In The Room (-1) 23. Adore You (+2) 24. Bad Guy (-1) 25. Trampoline (-1) 26. Falling (+1) 27. Truth Hurts (-1) 28. One Man Band (=) 29. My Oh My (+5) 30. Bandit (-1) 31. Yummy (+2) 32. Only Human (-2) 33. Hot (-2) 34. Panini (-2) 35. All I Want For Christmas Is You (=) 36. Heart On Ice (+2) 37. High Fashion (+2) 38. Juicy (-2) 39. Suicidal (+2)
PREDICTED CUTOFF - 17K POINTS
40. Even Though I'm Leaving (-3) 41. Homesick (+2) - WA: 1 42. RITMO (+2) - WA: 1 43. Kinfolks (-3) 44. I Don't Care (-2) 45. Godzilla (=) - WA: 2 46. Intentions (+6) - WA: 2 47. You Should Be Sad (-1) - WA: 3 48. Say So (+11) - WA: 2 49. Tusa (-2) - WA: 5 50. Sucker (-2) 51. Best On Earth (+6) - WA: 5 52. Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree (-3) 53. Lover (-3) 54. I Hope (+10) - WA: 4 55. Ridin' Roads (-4) 56. Sum 2 Prove (+5) - WA: 6 57. Graveyard (-4) 58. Old Town Road (-4) 59. Heartache Medication (-4) 60. Slide (+6) - WA: 6 61. Vibez (-5) 62. Vete (=) - WA: 10 63. What A Man Gotta Do (+4) - WA: 8 64. Futsal Shuffle 2020 (-6) 65. On Chill (-6) 66. We Back (-1) 67. Ransom (=) 68. What She Wants Tonight (NEW) - WA: 7
TRACKING CUTOFF - 10K POINTS
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tuna
Platinum Member
weezed to meet you
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Post by tuna on Mar 31, 2020 12:45:22 GMT -5
good for Heart On Ice. Hopefully Slide can make it on too
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2020 12:54:08 GMT -5
Here's the projected cutoff for the next 7 weeks assuming all songs stay in their respective chart positions and no new big songs debut.
Week 21 (40.38%) 38 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1912 39 RITMO (Bad Boys For Life) 1911 40 Panini 1895 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 41 High Fashion 1861 42 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 43 Kinfolks 1710
Week 22 (42.31%) 40 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1912 41 Panini 1895 42 Intentions 1860 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 43 Say So 1809 44 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 45 Godzilla 1802
Week 23 (44.23%) 42 Godzilla 1929 43 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1912 44 Panini 1895 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 45 You Should Be Sad 1870 46 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 47 I Hope 1760
Week 24 (46.15%) 44 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1912 45 I Hope 1898 46 Panini 1895 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 47 BEST ON EARTH 1845 48 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 49 Slide 1780
Week 25 (48.08%) 46 Panini 1895 47 Slide 1895 48 BEST ON EARTH 1845 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 49 Sum 2 Prove 1835 50 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 51 Tusa 1755
Week 26 (50%) 48 Panini 1895 49 BEST ON EARTH 1845 50 What She Wants Tonight 1826 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 51 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 52 Nobody But You 1775 53 Tusa 1755
Week 27 (51.92%)
50 BEST ON EARTH 1845 51 What She Wants Tonight 1826 52 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 53 More Hearts Than Mine 1759 54 Tusa 1755 55 Kinfolks 1710
PS: What A Man Gotta Do would have 1806 points by week 27, but that song won't last that long so I ended up removing it for more accuracy.
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on Mar 31, 2020 14:24:05 GMT -5
For anyone curious here's where the dropouts through March 2020 would be on last year's list
Senorita - #62 Highest In The Room - #68 Bad Guy - #68 Trampoline - #72 (POSSIBLE SAME PLACE REPETITION HYPE) Truth Hurts - #75 the worst hit song of the year - #79 Bandit - #83 Only Human - #86 Juicy - #91
CUTOFF
Kinfolks - #103 (for now) I Don't Care - #114
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Post by The Music Guy in the Group on Mar 31, 2020 14:55:34 GMT -5
the worst hit song of the year - #79 One Man Band?
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iggyamo
Gold Member
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Posts: 582
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Post by iggyamo on Mar 31, 2020 16:52:58 GMT -5
So some random thoughts before posting my most recent estimations of the year-end:
- Who will be the first recent pop star to die from COVID-19? There will be probably more than one. Joe Diffie doesn't count as pop. Or recent.
Based on how COVID-19 acts, it will likely be an older artist. Itโs not going to be an incredibly recent artist, since those tend to be a bit younger, so probably the 40 or older crowd that got popular in the 2010s, Iโm not going to list names because that seems a bit morbid.
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on Mar 31, 2020 17:12:07 GMT -5
- I miss the middling hit. Songs these days tend to flash like flares and disappear on the charts or hang on forever.
I soooo get this. It used to be that it was extremely commonplace to see songs debut low, climb to somewhere in the top 20, and then fall at a normal pace and last 20 weeks. That type of chart run has been all but obsolete in the last few years. Looking at the 2003 year end list there were 15 songs with that chart trajectory, last year there were *technically* three but Bury A Friend and ME! were both total flukes due to premature debuts, it was really just The Git Up, and in 2017 there were literally none, every 20-week chart run that year either peaked low (like 29 at the highest) or got a big splashy debut.
I know it's not a big deal and in fact I like that the charts of today have their own distinct identity with the types of runs you see but it's still something that's been on my mind for the last few years
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lifeofaguardian
Charting
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Joined: April 2019
Posts: 123
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Apr 1, 2020 2:34:32 GMT -5
Week 20 04/04/2020
Well, the Weeknd's album bomb wasn't as impactful on my playlists as I imagined. Most of the victims were of the previous album bombs that would never make it anyway.
Current Status (175.000 Points to be considered "Locked", 100.000 Points to be added to the playlist):
Added this week: Luke Bryan - What She Wants Tonight
Drop-Outs this week: None
Locked this week: Rod Wave - Heart On Ice Roddy Ricch ft. Mustard - High Fashion YNW Melly & Juice WRLD - Suicidal
Currently lowest Locked song: YNW Melly & Juice WRLD - Suicidal
Might Lock next week: Kane Brown - Homesick The Black Eyed Peas X J Balvin - RITMO (Bad Boys For Life)
Predicted Positions for Locked Drop-Outs: Lizzo - Good As Hell (40)
Predictions (Must reach 175.000 points after 10 weeks in the same position):
Added this week: The Weeknd - After Hours Jordan Davis - Slow Dance In A Parking Lot
Drop-outs: Russ & BIA - BEST ON EARTH Jack Harlow - WHATS POPPIN
Direct Links in case the embed doesn't work: Current status: Predictions:
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sirskimask
Platinum Member
LLJW 999
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Post by sirskimask on Apr 1, 2020 18:00:51 GMT -5
Repeats from the 2019 Year-End List - Week 20 (April 4, 2020)
CURRENTLY CHARTING:
Circles (current position: 5 [=], peak position: 1, weeks charting: 30) Someone You Loved (current position: 11 [-1], peak position: 1, weeks charting: 46) No Guidance (current position: 34 [-2], peak position: 5, weeks charting: 42)
OUT THIS WEEK: None
ALL REPEATS:
Circles Someone You Loved No Guidance Senorita bad guy Trampoline Truth Hurts Only Human Panini
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Apr 3, 2020 6:03:09 GMT -5
PREDICTION: I remember I said FINNEAS would be one of the decade defining producers of the 2020s, I think this will also mean we'll see hit songs where the main credit is FINNEAS, the same way we saw songs by Timbaland and Pharrell go big in the 2000s. I don't think it'll be this year but perhaps when music recording can start as whole and he can put out new material, he might get a sleeper hit. By the end of the decade, FINNEAS might even have more hit songs than his sister.
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wrip
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Post by wrip on Apr 3, 2020 9:05:52 GMT -5
I mean technically he has already had a hit song this year with Everything I Wanted. Itโs hit the top ten a few times and has stuck around the top 20 just about every week I believe
My point being that I could definitely see that happening with the success he has had so far.
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jarhys
Gold Member
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Posts: 958
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Post by jarhys on Apr 4, 2020 6:45:35 GMT -5
If Homesick made it this year, it would make Kane Brown have four consecutive years with songs in the year end charts. Hopefully he and John Legendโs song will do well also.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2020 14:18:16 GMT -5
I hope Kinfolks returns to the Hot 100 and then makes the YE.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2020 16:51:37 GMT -5
I hope Kinfolks returns to the Hot 100 and then makes the YE. I donโt
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spicymapping
Platinum Member
ahoe s2e11 out now
Joined: December 2018
Posts: 1,116
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Post by spicymapping on Apr 5, 2020 21:44:11 GMT -5
I hope she comes along and wrecks every one of your plans
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2020 22:53:28 GMT -5
I hope Kinfolks returns to the Hot 100 and then makes the YE. Seeing how it was between What She Wants Tonight (#46 on the hot 100) and Slow Dance In A Parking Lot (#49 on the hot 100) on the hot country songs charts last week, and that the latter two would have been #37 and #40 respectively without The Weeknd's album bomb (this is not counting the 3 singles from After Hours), I'd say it has a decent chance to re-chart if it gets a boost on streaming and sales next week and stays above #50 on the hot 100 chart.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Apr 6, 2020 18:28:56 GMT -5
I went through some of the old year-end and saw that 2000 and 2001 both had songs that topped the charts without peaking at 1 and it had me thinking, will we ever see that again?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2020 18:36:57 GMT -5
I went through some of the old year-end and saw that 2000 and 2001 both had songs that topped the charts without peaking at 1 and it had me thinking, will we ever see that again? I mean Sunflower would have done it if Without Me slightly beat it on the week it went #1 and the massive hit Old Town Road never existed.
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Post by nathanalbright on Apr 6, 2020 18:53:41 GMT -5
That's a lot of ifs.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2020 19:00:58 GMT -5
For a song to be #1 on the year end list without ever peaking at #1 on the weekly charts, it would need to be a song that has insane longevity. Not only that, but there can't be any #1 hits that are either very massive or has the same amount of longevity it has. In the end, it really comes down to the right conditions, and so far for a long time, those conditions have not been met yet.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2020 22:09:18 GMT -5
I hope Kinfolks returns to the Hot 100 and then makes the YE. Spectrum Pulse gave that album his second ever 1/10.
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mako
Platinum Member
formerly known as "the one letter"
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Post by mako on Apr 7, 2020 4:28:51 GMT -5
Week 20 (April 4, 2020) *Didn't have time to post last week's update, so I don't have any (+/-) data *Also don't have time to italicize recurrent songs rn
Locked last week/this week: [LAST WEEK] My Oh My, Heart On Ice [THIS WEEK] Suicidal, Homesick, High Fashion Locked Locked next week Locked in two weeks Recurrent/Not Charting Top 10 this week
1. Circles 5908 2. The Box 5866 -Top 20- (5750) -Top 25- (5000) 3. Memories 4822 4. Someone You Loved 4674 5. Roxanne 4485 6. Dance Monkey 4295 7. 10,000 Hours 4030 -Top 30- (4000) 8. Don't Start Now 3814 9. Lose You To Love Me 3805 10. Good As Hell 3804 (#35) -Top 40- (3600) 11. Life Is Good 3526 12. Ballin' 3500 13. Bop 3456 14. Everything I Wanted 3323 15. No Guidance 3212 16. Heartless 3160 -Top 50- (3100) 17. Blinding Lights 3097 18. Woah 2972 19. Hot Girl Bummer 2875 20. Senorita 2834 (#57) 21. The Bones 2731 -Top 60- (2700) 22. Highest In The Room 2635 (#62) 23. Bad Guy 2604 (#63) 24. Adore You 2532 25. Falling 2476 26. Trampoline 2415 (#69) -Top 70- (2400) 27. Truth Hurts 2295 (#75) 28. One Man Band 2236 (#78) -Top 80- (2200) 29. Yummy 2124 30. My Oh My 2072 31. Bandit 2056 (#86) 32. Only Human 1998 (#88) 33. Heart On Ice 1994 34. Hot 1970 (#89) -Top 90 (1950) 35. Panini 1918 (#92) 36. Juicy 1914 (#93) 37. Suicidal 1890 38. All I Want For Christmas Is You 1865 39. Homesick 1822 40. Even Though I'm Leaving 1807 (#100) 41. High Fashion 1804 -CUTOFF (1800)- 42. Ritmo (Bad Boys For Life) 1789 43. Kinfolks 1702 44. Godzilla 1675 45. I Don't Care 1619 46. Tusa 1569 47. You Should Be Sad 1534 48. Best On Earth 1478 49. Vete 1459 50. Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree 1430 51. Say So 1429 52. Ridin' Roads 1405 53. I Hope 1393 54. Slide 1391 55. Sum 2 Prove 1352 56. We Back 1351 57. Graveyard 1347 58. Sucker 1344 59. Lover 1338 60. Intentions 1338 61. Futsal Shuffle 2020 1325 62. Vibez 1317 63. What A Man Gotta Do 1314 64. Heartache Medication 1305 65. Old Town Road 1301 66. On Chill 1259 67. What She Wants Tonight 1232 68. More Hearts Than Mine 1190 69. Make No Sense 1175 70. Ran$om 1127 71. Nobody But You 1113 72. Jingle Bell Rock 1095 73. Playing Games 1087 74. A Holly Jolly Christmas 1076 75. I Wish Grandpas Never Died 1071 76. Heat 1066 77. Out West 1060 78. I Hope You're Happy Now 1055 79. No Idea 1042 80. Slow Dance In A Parking Lot 1040 81. Into The Unknown 1006 82. Camelot 1000 83. Pu$$y Fairy (OTW) 984 84. Take What You Want 976 85. What If I Never Get Over You 964 86. Easy 959 87. Beautiful People 932 88. Start Wit Me 932 89. South Of The Border 924 90. Homecoming Queen? 913 91. Make Me Want To 902 92. tl;dr 887 93. Homemade 887 94. Remember You Young 881 95. Chasin' You 863 96. Last Christmas 843 97. Talk 840 98. Leave Me Alone 830 99. Toes 827 100. 223's 806
Songs below #100 that are on the rise/over 95 points this week (excluding most album bomb songs)
101. Blueberry Faygo 798 102. Catch 794 106. B.I.T.C.H. 717 108. Stupid Love 706 109. Dior 704 110. Before You Go 704 111. Whats Poppin 685 114. Know Your Worth 660 119. To Die For 603 124. After Hours 581 128. That Way 554 136. Baby Pluto 493 146. P2 423 147. I Love Me 419 148. The Other Side 418 150. Grace 411 152. Sunday Best 402 158. B.S. 376 164. Oprah's Bank Account 313 169. Myron 292 176. Bean (Kobe) 255 178. Savage 243 190. Death Bed 217 198. Does To Me 208 202. Beer Can't Fix 203 203. Supalonely 202 217. In Your Eyes 170 233. Alone Again 148 235. Scared To Live 145 259. Roses (Imanbek Remix) 115
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Post by ๐ฒ๐ฝ'๐ผ.๐ฐ๐ฟ on Apr 7, 2020 6:10:52 GMT -5
"Godzilla"'s gonna be locked in two weeks according to mako predictions P.S. yo mako nice name and avatar you got there lol
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