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Post by ๐ฒ๐ฝ'๐ผ.๐ฐ๐ฟ on Apr 8, 2020 5:50:18 GMT -5
I find completely weird that "Lose You To Love Me" possibly placing within #37-#39. So in terms of YE position, "Good For You" (#5) and "It Ain't Me" (#10) which both notched #27, would beat "Lose You To Love Me" which is a #1.
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lifeofaguardian
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Apr 8, 2020 5:54:03 GMT -5
No chance for LIG, also SYL seems unlikely SYL is still in the Top 20 five months into the new chart year, I don't think it's that far off to say it'll end up somewhere in the Top 10. According to my calculations, Someone You Loved would need to stick around for 18 more weeks at its current position to barely make the year-end top 10, based on 2019's year end. Considering it is 5 weeks away from the 25/52 rule, that seems rather unlikely. It'll probably last over 52 weeks, but I doubt it'll last that long. My current predictions put it at about number 21. I'm guessing it'll last long enough to make the year-end top 20, however, considering my predictions assume it'll be gone after its 52nd week. Edit: ^ to be fair, Lose You To Love Me's number 1 peak came near the end of the 2019 chart year, so it lost a bunch of points that way. Despite this, even counting its 2019 points, its predicted position would still only be 32. I'm guessing the other two had longevity on their side.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Apr 8, 2020 7:15:55 GMT -5
For the chart week dated April 11, 2020:
This looks like the week Circles nails the #1 spot of the year on my version of the chart. By climbing even while The Box holds steady, Circles lost only 40 points of its lead of over 750. And Circles isn't going away any time soon. I think it'll still be in the top ten when The Box falls out because of radio plays.
Whether it had a large enough lead in the actual points that determine the official Billboard #1 is less certain, but likely The Box holds the lead in the official count -- for now. But I think we're only about a month away from The Box charting lower than Circles.
In the meantime Eilish & Capaldi continue defying gravity.
The average age (weeks on chart) of songs in the top ten of this week's Hot 100 is 20.6 weeks. About 5 months. If that's not an all-time record, it should be. Songs that old should be on their way down or off the charts.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Apr 8, 2020 9:38:28 GMT -5
I find completely weird that "Lose You To Love Me" possibly placing within #37-#39. So in terms of YE position, "Good For You" (#5) and "It Ain't Me" (#10) which both notched #27, would beat "Lose You To Love Me" which is a #1. Which shows again that longevity and quality of chart run can beat chart peak.
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Post by The Music Guy in the Group on Apr 8, 2020 13:22:45 GMT -5
PROJECTED CUTOFF - 170K POINTS Ooo haven't done this in a while PRACTICALLY GUARANTEED: Intentions Godzilla Say So SAFE BET: Even Though I'm Leaving You should be sad I Hope 50/50 CHANCE: Kinfolks Tusa BEST ON EARTH Sum 2 Prove Slide DOUBTFUL: I Don't Care Ridin' Roads Vete What a Man Gotta Do ALREADY OUT: Sucker Rockin' Around the CHristmas Tree Lover Graveyard Old Town Road Heartache Medication VIBEZ Futsal Shuffle 2020 On Chill We Back RAN$OM TOO EARLY TO TELL: What She Wants Tonight Nobody but You More Hearts Than Mine
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2020 17:44:53 GMT -5
Here's the projected cutoff for the next 7 weeks assuming all songs stay in their respective chart positions and no new big songs debut.
Week 22 (42.31%)40 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1912 41 Panini 1895 42 Intentions 1854 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -
43 Say So 1819 44 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 45 Godzilla 1766
Week 23 (44.23%)42 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1912 43 Panini 1895 44 Godzilla 1875 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 45 You Should Be Sad 1846 46 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 47 I Hope 1784
Week 24 (46.15%) 44 I Hope 1930 45 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1912 46 Panini 1895 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 47 BEST ON EARTH 1829 48 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 49 Slide 1772
Week 25 (48.08%)46 Panini 1895 47 Slide 1884 48 BEST ON EARTH 1829 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -
49 Sum 2 Prove 1819 50 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 51 Tusa 1731 Week 26 (50%)48 Panini 1895 49 BEST ON EARTH 1829 50 Nobody But You 1805 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -
51 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 52 Tusa 1731 53 What She Wants Tonight 1724 Week 27 (51.92%)50 Blueberry Faygo 1859 51 BEST ON EARTH 1829 52 More Hearts Than Mine 1808 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -
53 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 54 Slow Dance In A Parking Lot 1735 55 Tusa 1731
Week 28 (53.85%) 52 BEST ON EARTH 1829 53 More Hearts Than Mine 1808 54 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -
55 Stupid Love 1793 56 Tusa 1731 57 Chasin' You 1729
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Post by Ratatouille on Apr 9, 2020 3:25:14 GMT -5
For the chart week dated April 11, 2020:
This looks like the week Circles nails the #1 spot of the year on my version of the chart. By climbing even while The Box holds steady, Circles lost only 40 points of its lead of over 750. And Circles isn't going away any time soon. I think it'll still be in the top ten when The Box falls out because of radio plays.
Whether it had a large enough lead in the actual points that determine the official Billboard #1 is less certain, but likely The Box holds the lead in the official count -- for now. But I think we're only about a month away from The Box charting lower than Circles.
In the meantime Eilish & Capaldi continue defying gravity.
The average age (weeks on chart) of songs in the top ten of this week's Hot 100 is 20.6 weeks. About 5 months. If that's not an all-time record, it should be. Songs that old should be on their way down or off the charts.
Why Godzilla gained less than Tusa?
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Post by smallbubble on Apr 9, 2020 3:33:45 GMT -5
Do u guys think this year would have an extremely low year-end cutoff points due to recent plunge for the entire chart๏ผ ๏ผabout 15~20% points loss in general)
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Apr 9, 2020 7:22:56 GMT -5
For the chart week dated April 11, 2020: Why Godzilla gained less than Tusa? It probably didn't. I'll check it out but I expect that's actually a two week gain total for Tusa.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2020 16:37:19 GMT -5
Do u guys think this year would have an extremely low year-end cutoff points due to recent plunge for the entire chart๏ผ ๏ผabout 15~20% points loss in general) Hey, that would give Even Though I'm Leaving a stronger shot at making the Year-End.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Apr 9, 2020 16:47:43 GMT -5
Do u guys think this year would have an extremely low year-end cutoff points due to recent plunge for the entire chart๏ผ ๏ผabout 15~20% points loss in general) Another factor that could make that true if is there are more songs from album chart bombs than last year. Those will tend to make older songs recurrent sooner than otherwise and most of them don't have a chance to become year-end songs, unless they actually get released as singles.
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iggyamo
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Post by iggyamo on Apr 9, 2020 19:47:42 GMT -5
Why Godzilla gained less than Tusa? It probably didn't.ย I'll check it out but I expect that's actually a two week gain total for Tusa.
Iโm more concerned about the Gabby Barrett and Sheck Wes collaboration
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2020 22:55:12 GMT -5
It probably didn't. I'll check it out but I expect that's actually a two week gain total for Tusa.
Iโm more concerned about the Gabby Barrett and Sheck Wes collaboration OMG WTF ๐
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sirskimask
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Post by sirskimask on Apr 10, 2020 2:29:22 GMT -5
Repeats from the 2019 Year-End List - Week 21 (April 11, 2020)
CURRENTLY CHARTING:
Circles (current position: 4 [+1], peak position: 1, weeks charting: 31) Weeks in top 10: 31 Someone You Loved (current position: 10 [+1], peak position: 1, weeks charting: 47) Weeks in top 10: 27 No Guidance (current position: 35 [-1], peak position: 5, weeks charting: 43) Weeks in top 10: 23
OUT THIS WEEK: None
ALL REPEATS: Circles Someone You Loved No Guidance Senorita bad guy Trampoline Truth Hurts Only Human Panini
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2020 11:57:39 GMT -5
You Should Be Sad seems to be free falling on the radio now. I still expect it to make the 2020 year end list but probably in the 80s or 90s.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Apr 10, 2020 16:10:29 GMT -5
It probably didn't. I'll check it out but I expect that's actually a two week gain total for Tusa.
Iโm more concerned about the Gabby Barrett and Sheck Wes collaboration I hope you're both feeling sparks by the end of the drive (OOOOHHHHH!) I hope you know she's the one by the end of the night (OOOOOOOHHHHHHH!) And then I hope she cheats, like you did on me (OHHHHHHHHHH SHlT! BITCH!)
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on Apr 10, 2020 19:47:50 GMT -5
Do u guys think this year would have an extremely low year-end cutoff points due to recent plunge for the entire chart๏ผ ๏ผabout 15~20% points loss in general) god i hate the coronavirus so much
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2020 19:50:18 GMT -5
Do u guys think this year would have an extremely low year-end cutoff points due to recent plunge for the entire chart๏ผ ๏ผabout 15~20% points loss in general) god i hate the coronavirus so much Same, I might have to readjust my points system so I don't overestimate songs that chart later in the year.
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inverse
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Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on Apr 10, 2020 23:56:48 GMT -5
Do u guys think this year would have an extremely low year-end cutoff points due to recent plunge for the entire chart๏ผ ๏ผabout 15~20% points loss in general) god i hate the coronavirus so much Of all the effects of coronavirus on society, "2020 Billboard Year-End Hot 100 Cutoff being lower than usual" doesn't seem like a particularly significant one
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on Apr 11, 2020 13:26:21 GMT -5
god i hate the coronavirus so much Of all the effects of coronavirus on society, "2020 Billboard Year-End Hot 100 Cutoff being lower than usual" doesn't seem like a particularly significant one i was more referring to how its gonna fuck with my inverse point system but yeah ur right obviously
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2020 15:03:20 GMT -5
I wonder if Tusa will be able to beat the recurrent rules, it's still slowly gaining on radio on its 19th week.
You Should Be Sad continues to lose big on the radio, I think bottom 10 on the year end would be a realistic estimate.
Kinfolks is expected to re-chart, although I'm not sure how long it will last. Even one week might be enough to save its run for the list.
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Apr 12, 2020 15:13:06 GMT -5
I wonder if Tusa will be able to beat the recurrent rules, it's still slowly gaining on radio on its 19th week. You Should Be Sad continues to lose big on the radio, I think bottom 10 on the year end would be a realistic estimate. Kinfolks is expected to re-chart, although I'm not sure how long it will last. Even one week might be enough to save its run for the list. If points continue to dwindle and the cutoff becomes ~160k, I think Kinfolks would be safe anyway but a reenter would definitely save it
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2020 15:14:41 GMT -5
I wonder if Tusa will be able to beat the recurrent rules, it's still slowly gaining on radio on its 19th week. You Should Be Sad continues to lose big on the radio, I think bottom 10 on the year end would be a realistic estimate. Kinfolks is expected to re-chart, although I'm not sure how long it will last. Even one week might be enough to save its run for the list. If points continue to dwindle and the cutoff becomes ~160k, I think Kinfolks would be safe anyway but a reenter would definitely save it If what you're saying is true, I Don't Care might actually still have a chance at the 2020 year end list, and I don't know how to feel about that.
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Apr 12, 2020 15:19:53 GMT -5
If points continue to dwindle and the cutoff becomes ~160k, I think Kinfolks would be safe anyway but a reenter would definitely save it If what you're saying is true, I Don't Care might actually still have a chance at the 2020 year end list, and I don't know how to feel about that. i hate it
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2020 15:22:35 GMT -5
If what you're saying is true, I Don't Care might actually still have a chance at the 2020 year end list, and I don't know how to feel about that. i hate it On the plus side, songs like Even Though I'm Leaving will have a much better shot at making the list now, as opposed to just being borderline.
Anyways, this means I'll have to slowly readjust my points system for the last month or so to a much more accurate system for the time being.
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on Apr 12, 2020 16:36:57 GMT -5
i'm gonna be so pissed if either I Don't Care or Kinfolks make the year end but both of them probably will at this point
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2020 17:53:08 GMT -5
I have redone my 2020 year end predictions to show the gradual decrease in points on the charts. Here is how everything stands on week 21.
Locked This Week: Yummy & Heart On Ice Will Lock Next Week: Suicidal
Dropouts: Lose You To Love Me 3719 (Will make the 2020 year end list. Projected spot is #38.)
1 The Box 6387 (+315) 2 Circles 5950 (+235) 3 Someone You Loved 4955 (+180) 4 Memories 4892 (+165) 5 Roxanne 4789 (+175) 6 Dance Monkey 4467 (+130) 7 Don't Start Now 4257 (+310) 8 10,000 Hours 4118 (+114) 9 Life Is Good 3730 (+225) 10 Lose You To Love Me 3719 - 11 Good As Hell 3700 - 12 Blinding Lights 3581 (+375) 13 Ballin' 3570 (+122) 14 Everything I Wanted 3521 (+190) 15 BOP 3500 (+112) 16 Heartless 3306 (+170) 17 No Guidance 3239 (+105) 18 Hot Girl Bummer 3044 (+150) 19 Woah 2943 (+94) 20 The Bones 2866 (+160) 21 Senorita 2777 - 22 Adore You 2711 (+220) 23 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 2613 - 24 Bad Guy 2588 - 25 Falling 2513 (+120) 26 Trampoline 2391 - 27 Truth Hurts 2256 - 28 One Man Band 2208 - 29 My Oh My 2164 (+155) 30 Yummy 2059 (+61) 31 Heart On Ice 2047 (+110) 32 Bandit 2029 - - - - - - LOCKED CUTOFF (2000 Points) - - - - -
33 Only Human 1963 - 34 Hot 1945 - 35 Juicy 1933 - 36 Suicidal 1923 (+107) 37 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1912 - 38 Panini 1895 - 39 Homesick 1871 (+102) 40 RITMO (Bad Boys For Life) 1848 (+118) - - - - - - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - - - - - - 41 High Fashion 1806 (+109) 42 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 - 43 Kinfolks 1710 - 44 I Don't Care 1612 - 45 Intentions 1610 (+200) 46 Godzilla 1598 (+93) 47 Say So 1564 (+210) 48 You Should Be Sad 1538 (+106) 49 Tusa 1535 (+76) - - - - - TRACKING CUTOFF (1500 Points) - - - - - 50 BEST ON EARTH 1454 (+92) 51 I Hope 1439 (+128) 52 Sum 2 Prove 1392 (+85) 53 Slide 1383 (+95) 54 What A Man Gotta Do 1255 (+54) 55 What She Wants Tonight 1151 (+90) 56 Nobody But You 1109 (+108) 57 More Hearts Than Mine 1081 (+96) 58 Slow Dance In A Parking Lot 948 (+103) 59 I Hope You're Happy Now 916 (+82) 60 Blueberry Faygo 872 (+135) 61 Homemade 829 (+89) 62 Chasin' You 812 (+104) 63 Stupid Love 778 (+116) 64 Catch 707 (+100) 65 WHATS POPPIN 638 (+91) 66 Before You Go 612 (+74) 67 Savage 331 (+140) 68 In Your Eyes 248 (+98) 69 Does To Me 236 (+81) 70 Roses 193 (+101)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2020 17:53:26 GMT -5
Since the charts are weak right now due to the Coronavirus, here are the updated projected positions for songs near the cutoff.
Bandit: #89 To #85 Only Human: #92 To #87 Hot: #93 To #88 Juicy: #94 To #89 All I Want For Christmas Is You: #95 To #90 Panini: #96 To #91 Even Though I'm Leaving: #100 To #95 Kinfolks: #105 To #100 (Is now projected to make the 2020 year end list.)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2020 17:54:14 GMT -5
Here's the updated projected cutoff for the next 7 weeks assuming all songs stay in their respective chart positions and no new big songs debut. Week 22 (42.31%)40 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1912 41 Panini 1895 42 Intentions 1810 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -43 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 44 Say So 1774 45 Kinfolks 1710 Week 23 (44.23%)42 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1912 43 Panini 1895 44 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -45 Godzilla 1784 46 You Should Be Sad 1750 47 Kinfolks 1710 Week 24 (46.15%)44 Godzilla 1877 45 You Should Be Sad 1856 46 I Hope 1823 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -47 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 48 BEST ON EARTH 1730 49 Kinfolks 1710 Week 25 (48.08%)46 Panini 1895 47 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 48 Slide 1763 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -49 Sum 2 Prove 1732 50 BEST ON EARTH 1730 51 Kinfolks 1710 Week 26 (50%)48 Sum 2 Prove 1817 49 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 50 BEST ON EARTH 1730 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -51 Kinfolks 1710 52 Tusa 1687 53 Nobody But You 1649 Week 27 (51.92%)50 Nobody But You 1757 51 BEST ON EARTH 1730 52 Kinfolks 1710 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -53 Tusa 1687 54 Blueberry Faygo 1682 55 More Hearts Than Mine 1657 Week 28 (53.85%)52 BEST ON EARTH 1730 53 Kinfolks 1710 54 Tusa 1687 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -55 Slow Dance In A Parking Lot 1669 56 More Hearts Than Mine 1657 57 I Don't Care 1612
In summary, the projected cutoff gets lower and lower as the weeks go by. This is good news for songs that charted earlier in the year.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2020 17:56:21 GMT -5
i'm gonna be so pissed if either I Don't Care or Kinfolks make the year end but both of them probably will at this point If Kinfolks re-charts this week, then its chances will be pretty likely assuming the charts stay weak for the rest of the year. If it doesn't rechart, then its chances will still be possible instead of unlikely due to the current circumstances. As for I Don't Care, although I still think it will miss, I wouldn't be surprised if the cutoff became that low to allow it to scrape in (the most extreme case scenario would be songs with 1500 points making the 2020 year end list).
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