sirskimask
Platinum Member
LLJW 999
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Posts: 1,324
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Post by sirskimask on Jul 10, 2020 5:18:47 GMT -5
Really hope Righteous can somehow squeeze onto the YE list after the album boost. Great song and deserves its spot
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lifeofaguardian
Charting
Almost definitely not a furry
Joined: April 2019
Posts: 123
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Jul 10, 2020 5:31:28 GMT -5
Righteous is probably going to reenter with Juice WRLD's album. how many more weeks does it need to make the y/e? It's pretty vague rn, but if it can rebound to the top 50 and stay stable for the rest of its 10 weeks it might pass the cutoff. If the rest of its run is similar to, say, Supalonely, which never really gained but was really stable below the top 50, it has a shot.
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Post by waluigionascooter on Jul 10, 2020 14:01:41 GMT -5
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Post by nathanalbright on Jul 10, 2020 14:47:28 GMT -5
Nothing says Summer Megamix like Lewis Capaldi.
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lifeofaguardian
Charting
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Joined: April 2019
Posts: 123
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Jul 10, 2020 14:56:39 GMT -5
Well it sure fits Summer 2020
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CF15
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Posts: 9,356
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Post by CF15 on Jul 10, 2020 20:41:51 GMT -5
If "Only Human" makes the 2020 year-end Hot 100, will it be the lowest-peaking song to make two year-end Hot 100 lists?
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 10, 2020 20:45:00 GMT -5
If "Only Human" makes the 2020 year-end, will it be the lowest-peaking song to make two year-ends? I'm not exactly sure what the lowest peaking song to make two year end lists is, but Only Human will definitely not be. Tequila peaked at #21 and made both 2018 and 2019's year end lists at #32 and #91 respectively (as opposed to Only Human, which only peaked at #18).
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CF15
9x Platinum Member
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 9,356
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Post by CF15 on Jul 10, 2020 20:46:01 GMT -5
If "Only Human" makes the 2020 year-end, will it be the lowest-peaking song to make two year-ends? I'm not exactly sure what the lowest peaking song to make two year end lists is, but Only Human will definitely not be. Tequila peaked at #21 and made both 2018 and 2019's year end lists at #32 and #91 respectively (as opposed to Only Human, which only peaked at #19). Ah, thanks. I didn't realize "Tequila" made two year-end lists.
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hydraflare
Gold Member
RIP Juice WRLD
Joined: January 2018
Posts: 740
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Post by hydraflare on Jul 10, 2020 20:52:41 GMT -5
If "Only Human" makes the 2020 year-end Hot 100, will it be the lowest-peaking song to make two year-end Hot 100 lists? Brave by Sara Bareilles peaked at 23
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Post by Private Dancer on Jul 11, 2020 2:37:39 GMT -5
I'm confused how did Everything I Wanted manage to peak @ #8 and is in the top ten YE?
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higilo
Charting
BENEE
Joined: September 2018
Posts: 333
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Post by higilo on Jul 11, 2020 3:04:00 GMT -5
I'm confused how did Everything I Wanted manage to peak @ #8 and is in the top ten YE? Longevity
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sirskimask
Platinum Member
LLJW 999
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Posts: 1,324
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Post by sirskimask on Jul 11, 2020 4:00:00 GMT -5
I'm confused how did Everything I Wanted manage to peak @ #8 and is in the top ten YE? Has charted every week of the chart year thus far and spent most of that time in the top 20. Still only July though so obviously won't finish top 10 seeing as it's on its way out, but lower peaking songs can sometimes make the top 10 if they chart for most of the year (Congratulations for example, peaked at #8 but finished #10 on the YE due to being released at the beginning of the year and charting for 50 weeks)
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n13l5
Charting
I like to follow the billboard chart predictions on here
Joined: November 2017
Posts: 122
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Post by n13l5 on Jul 11, 2020 4:07:14 GMT -5
Nothing says Summer Megamix like Lewis Capaldi. Or 6ix9ine...
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lifeofaguardian
Charting
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Joined: April 2019
Posts: 123
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Jul 11, 2020 9:25:37 GMT -5
I'm confused how did Everything I Wanted manage to peak @ #8 and is in the top ten YE? There are also still 18 more weeks to go in which songs can pass it. I've got Everything I Wanted at #20 of the YE based on last year's points.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2020 10:06:12 GMT -5
As I promised, here are the updated projected 2020 year end positions for every song that has dropped out (based off of my predictions).
Someone You Loved - #15 Dance Monkey - #18 Roxanne - #19 Everything I Wanted - #20 10,000 Hours - #25 Ballin' - #27 BOP - #33 Heartless - #34 Lose You To Love Me - #35 Good As Hell - #36 My Oh My - #38 No Guidance - #40 Woah - #53 Senorita - #58 Heart On Ice - #59 RITMO - #60 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM - #61 Bad Guy - #65 Trampoline - #71 Godzilla - #74 Truth Hurts - #75 One Man Band - #76 Yummy - #77 I Hope You're Happy Now - #78 Suicidal - #79 Sum 2 Prove #80 Bandit - #84 Only Human - #85 Homesick - #86 You Should Be Sad - #87 Juicy - #88 Hot - #89 All I Want For Christmas Is You - #90 Panini - #91 Slide - #94 Even Though I'm Leaving - #95 OUT WEST - #97 Tusa - #98 Kinfolks - #99 BEST ON EARTH - #100
- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - More Hearts Than Mine - #103 I Don't Care - #105 Ridin' Roads - #109
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Post by 54generation on Jul 11, 2020 12:16:48 GMT -5
@delphox
How many spots are left for the Year End chart that aren't locked as of now?
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2020 12:23:38 GMT -5
@delphox How many spots are left for the Year End chart that aren't locked as of now? Based off of my predictions, I have 42 spots left for the 2020 year end list.
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CF15
9x Platinum Member
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Post by CF15 on Jul 11, 2020 14:02:00 GMT -5
I'm confused how did Everything I Wanted manage to peak @ #8 and is in the top ten YE? Has charted every week of the chart year thus far and spent most of that time in the top 20. Still only July though so obviously won't finish top 10 seeing as it's on its way out, but lower peaking songs can sometimes make the top 10 if they chart for most of the year (Congratulations for example, peaked at #8 but finished #10 on the YE due to being released at the beginning of the year and charting for 50 weeks) "I Don't Want To Wait" by Paula Cole was actually in the top ten of the 1998 Year-End Hot 100 without even peaking in the top ten.
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jarhys
Gold Member
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Posts: 958
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Post by jarhys on Jul 12, 2020 20:15:40 GMT -5
If Blinding Lights has the same amount of leads in the rest of the weeks, it can still pass The Box and get the number one spot.
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jab625246
Charting
Joined: February 2020
Posts: 67
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Post by jab625246 on Jul 13, 2020 7:53:41 GMT -5
Remember back in 2019 when everyone thought 7 Rings would be the number one song of that year? Apparently, Old Town Road took that spot by the middle of the year. I guess the same will occur for The Box and Blinding Lights with the latter being the top song of the year thanks to it's long run in the top 3.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2020 9:56:35 GMT -5
Blinding Lights is one of my favourite songs of all time, so seeing it have an actual shot at #1 on the 2020 year end list makes me so excited.
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Post by waluigionascooter on Jul 13, 2020 11:55:10 GMT -5
Remember back in 2019 when everyone thought 7 Rings would be the number one song of that year? Apparently, Old Town Road took that spot by the middle of the year. I guess the same will occur for The Box and Blinding Lights with the latter being the top song of the year thanks to it's long run in the top 3. I remember Without Me being the frontrunner for #1 song of the year for a while lol.
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tuna
Platinum Member
weezed to meet you
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Post by tuna on Jul 13, 2020 12:11:01 GMT -5
the real exciting part of blinding lights becoming the #1 song of the year is that it'll almost certainly make the GOAT list
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jab625246
Charting
Joined: February 2020
Posts: 67
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Post by jab625246 on Jul 13, 2020 12:20:43 GMT -5
the real exciting part of blinding lights becoming the #1 song of the year is that it'll almost certainly make the GOAT list I wonder where Blinding Lights is going to land on the Billboard Greatest Hot 100 Hits of All-Time list.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2020 12:47:10 GMT -5
I'm actually a bit surprised of the lack of songs in the 1500-1700 point range (or 150K to 170K) for my 2020 year end predictions. Around the same time last year there were around 11 songs in this range (according to fhas/rimetm's predictions), while in this year there are currently only 3 (More Hearts Than Mine, I Don't Care, and Ridin' Roads). If the cutoff does end up being low, and there continues to be a lack of songs in this region, then we might see songs as low as 1500 points make the list.
If you're wondering what this region of the 2019 year end list looked like on week 35, here's a screenshot of fhas/rimetm's predictions on an old thread (ignore Walk Me Home and Hey Look Ma I Made It since both surpassed 1700 (or 170K) points by the end of their chart run).
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Post by nathanalbright on Jul 13, 2020 13:12:06 GMT -5
Do you have any idea why this is the case? These songs are the classic "bubble" that falls just short of being on the YE list despite being solid hits. Why would that get empty?
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2020 13:18:27 GMT -5
Do you have any idea why this is the case? These songs are the classic "bubble" that falls just short of being on the YE list despite being solid hits. Why would that get empty? I'll quote what fhas said to me on Twitter "UGC change + coronavirus". Since both factors reduced streaming and radio, the charts have been pretty weak this year (around 85% of what they usually are). Because of that, I'm guessing the "bubble" that's usually in this point range is now lower.
If the cutoff does end up being 1700 points like last year, then that's due to a lot of new releases later this year making a late entry into the 2020 year end list (something that 2019 also lacked). If this third factor comes into play as well (lack of new entries), then the cutoff will be even lower than last year.
My best guess is the "bubble" you mentioned is currently somewhere here. Note that I didn't include any of the Christmas songs here.
75 Heartless 1462 76 Slow Dance In A Parking Lot 1393 77 Graveyard 1370 78 Sucker 1342 79 Lover 1341 80 What A Man Gotta Do 1311 81 What She Wants Tonight 1294 82 Catch 1283 83 Old Town Road 1279 84 Futsal Shuffle 2020 1267 85 Stupid Love 1266 86 On Chill 1258 87 Homemade 1236 88 We Back 1179 ? Vete (This song is somewhere in this range but I never calculated it because I figured it had no chance of making the list anyways.)
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Post by nathanalbright on Jul 13, 2020 14:27:46 GMT -5
While we all tend to cheer on new songs rising into the YE, there are definitely some songs on this list that would make people happy to see on the YE list (Lover, Stupid Love, On Chill come to mind, as well as OTR). So far the predictions has been assuming that there will be new songs that last long enough to rise into the YE locked position but I suppose in the next couple of months we'll see if there is a lack of new releases with staying power or not. It's hard to imagine the YE chart going all the way down to 120 or 130k, though.
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kingvavis
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Post by kingvavis on Jul 13, 2020 14:34:05 GMT -5
I have compiled a list consisting of the current year-end appearance streaks by artists as of 2019. The numbers in the brackets below signify the number of consecutive year-end appearances. I have only included artists who have made 3+ consecutive year end appearances. I have also made a list for the appearance streaks that are most likely to continue into 2020 as well as new streaks that are likely to happen. If I missed anything or if someone else has already compiled a similar list, let me know.
Taylor Swift: 2007-2019 (13)
Drake: 2009-2019 (11)
Nicki Minaj: 2010-2019 (10)
Ariana Grande: 2013-2019 (7)
Shawn Mendes: 2015-2019 (5)
Justin Bieber: 2015-2019 (5)
Selena Gomez:2015-2019 (5)
Post Malone: 2016-2019 (4)
Halsey: 2016-2019 (4)
Travis Scott: 2016-2019 (4)
Camilla Cabeilo: 2016-2019 (4)
Young Thug: 2016-2019 (4)
Ty Dolla Sign: 2016-2019 (4)
Khalid: 2017-2019 (3)
Sam Smith: 2017-2019 (3)
Ed Sheeran: 2017-2019 (3)
Maroon 5: 2017-2019 (3)
Cardi B: 2017-2019 (3)
Bruno Mars: 2017-2019 (3)
21 Savage: 2017-2019 (3)
Luke Combs: 2017-2019 (3)
Gucci Mane: 2017-2019 (3)
Migos: 2017-2019 (3)
Daddy Yankee: 2017-2019 (3)
J Balvin: 2017-2019 (3)
Kane Brown: 2017-2019 (3)
Likely to continue streak from projected 2020 year end so far
Drake (12)
Ariana Grande (8)
Shawn Mendes (6)
Justin Bieber (6)
Selena Gomez (6)
Post Malone (5)
Travis Scott (5)
Halsey (5)
Camilla Cabeilo (5)
Young Thug (5)
J Balvin (4)
Kane Brown (4)
Maroon 5 (4)
Luke Combs (4)
Likely new 3+ year end streaks from projected 2020 year end so far
Lil Baby
Juice Wrld
Dan + Shay
Chris Brown
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2020 19:02:43 GMT -5
While we all tend to cheer on new songs rising into the YE, there are definitely some songs on this list that would make people happy to see on the YE list (Lover, Stupid Love, On Chill come to mind, as well as OTR). So far the predictions has been assuming that there will be new songs that last long enough to rise into the YE locked position but I suppose in the next couple of months we'll see if there is a lack of new releases with staying power or not. It's hard to imagine the YE chart going all the way down to 120 or 130k, though. I agree that there's no way the cutoff will ever go as low as that, the most I see it going to is around 1500 (or 150K) points.
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