Billboard Hot 100: 12/14/2019

[jenglisbe]

Dec 5, 2019 22:51:03 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Dec 5, 2019 9:54:26 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

When is the last time a brand new holiday song did all that well on the charts? It might have decent sales this first week, but it won’t have huge airplay and its streams likely won’t be too great (especially in 2 weeks).

if a post-Witness Katy Perry could get "Cozy Little Christmas" an Amazon exclusive with no music video to #1 on AC and #53 on the Hot 100 (higher than Bon Appetit lol) I feel like Taylor's might also have some staying power this season at least, I'm guessing somewhere in the #32-43 range for its peak. (and this is obviously before hearing the song. would have guessed #1 for ME! before I heard it, for reference)

But even top 35 isn’t competition for AIWFCIY, which is what the post I replied to was claiming.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Taylor Swift released Christmas Tree Farm and I feel like it'll do well. I had to look and see if it was a cover because it sounds similar to the old school Christmas songs from the 60s-70s.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Dec 6, 2019 7:02:28 GMT -5 forg said:

Dec 6, 2019 6:00:52 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

It's not just a "these days" problem. Tactics have been used to manipulate the charts since the 50s.

Yup, we just have the Internet to scrutinize talk about it in real time

And also to help game them even more.

[kimberly]

Dec 6, 2019 8:21:52 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Dec 5, 2019 22:51:03 GMT -5 kimberly said:

if a post-Witness Katy Perry could get "Cozy Little Christmas" an Amazon exclusive with no music video to #1 on AC and #53 on the Hot 100 (higher than Bon Appetit lol) I feel like Taylor's might also have some staying power this season at least, I'm guessing somewhere in the #32-43 range for its peak. (and this is obviously before hearing the song. would have guessed #1 for ME! before I heard it, for reference)

But even top 35 isn’t competition for AIWFCIY, which is what the post I replied to was claiming.

And I don’t disagree with what you said at all ;)

[jenglisbe]

Dec 6, 2019 9:19:54 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Dec 6, 2019 8:21:52 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

But even top 35 isn’t competition for AIWFCIY, which is what the post I replied to was claiming.

And I don’t disagree with what you said at all ;)

Ok, but you replied to my comment so it made it seem like you did. Thanks.

[kimberly]

Dec 6, 2019 9:21:47 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Dec 6, 2019 9:19:54 GMT -5 kimberly said:

And I don’t disagree with what you said at all

Ok, but you replied to my comment so it made it seem like you did. Thanks.

Yeah AIWFCIY is already nearing top ten (Simon's early predictions have it at #7) and we're still two weeks out. No other Christmas song that's already out will be challenging her. 

[Deleted]

Dec 5, 2019 7:33:10 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

If you want artists who actually sold to making less interesting music, Adam Levine and Brendon Urie are right there, and 9.8 times out of 10, I would much rather listen to a Lizzo song than the newest Panic! or Maroon 5 song.

I think it's unfair to say Brendon Urie sold out just yet. He only did one pop-driven album, and that was probably inspired by his Broadway experience at Kinky Boots back in 2017. "ME!" was a dream collaboration with one of the biggest artists of our generation, while "Into The Unknown" was a cover of a Disney song, so there wasn't much personal creative input in there. If you like, "Pray For The Wicked" can be considered as Panic!'s "Overexposed", both comeback albums which got massive chart success and happened to have pop tracks over the bands' typical rock sound, but still remain solid bodies of work. Now, if Panic!'s next album is a rehash of PFTW, then I will have to agree they have sold out, but for now we have to wait and see. 

As for Adam Levine, I think the problem is that he's not as passionate about music as before, and that was perfectly demonstrated in his embarrassing Super Bowl performance. Sam Johnson, a popular voice teacher on YouTube, has put it perfectly - Adam Levine seems to be on auto-pilot these days, and it also applies to his musical output. If you are no longer interested the art you make, yet you still want your annual income, there's no better way than chasing the current trends and making the most bland and inoffensive music possible, which perfectly sums up Maroon 5's music since "I Don't Wanna Know". After all, they have been around for more than 20 years, and if the motivation is no longer there, I wouldn't mind if they took a break or something, especially since Levine has a family now.

[candypaint]

Dec 6, 2019 6:59:55 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Billie released a video of 'xanny', I guess 'everything i wanted' was just a throwaway bonus single?

Xanny’s not a single. I think her team is still pushing ATGGGTH so EIW isn’t really the main priority.

[Enigma.]

US Spotify, week ending 12/5/19

1 Heartless by The Weeknd 11,224,390
2 ROXANNE by Arizona Zervas 10,198,981
3 Blinding Lights by The Weeknd 9,583,216
4 Circles by Post Malone 7,959,651
5 everything i wanted by Billie Eilish 7,130,246
6 Falling by Trevor Daniel 6,654,951
7 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM by Travis Scott 6,526,382
8 BOP by DaBaby 6,054,623
9 All I Want for Christmas Is You by Mariah Carey 5,917,003
10 Bandit (with YoungBoy Never Broke Again) by Juice WRLD 5,684,584

"Hot" is #9 combined

[Juan Carlos]

Dec 6, 2019 10:24:07 GMT -5 candypaint said:

Dec 6, 2019 6:59:55 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Billie released a video of 'xanny', I guess 'everything i wanted' was just a throwaway bonus single?

Xanny’s not a single. I think her team is still pushing ATGGGTH so EIW isn’t really the main priority.

FYI, the latter isn't true, aside the latest banner from AllAccess promoting "All The Good Girls Go To Hell" because Interscope has moved on and they are pushing "Everything I Wanted" now.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Dec 6, 2019 10:22:56 GMT -5 @aprettyoddmusicbox said:

Dec 5, 2019 7:33:10 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

If you want artists who actually sold to making less interesting music, Adam Levine and Brendon Urie are right there, and 9.8 times out of 10, I would much rather listen to a Lizzo song than the newest Panic! or Maroon 5 song.

I think it's unfair to say Brendon Urie sold out just yet. He only did one pop-driven album, and that was probably inspired by his Broadway experience at Kinky Boots back in 2017. "ME!" was a dream collaboration with one of the biggest artists of our generation, while "Into The Unknown" was a cover of a Disney song, so there wasn't much personal creative input in there. If you like, "Pray For The Wicked" can be considered as Panic!'s "Overexposed", both comeback albums which got massive chart success and happened to have pop tracks over the bands' typical rock sound, but still remain solid bodies of work. Now, if Panic!'s next album is a rehash of PFTW, then I will have to agree they have sold out, but for now we have to wait and see. 

As for Adam Levine, I think the problem is that he's not as passionate about music as before, and that was perfectly demonstrated in his embarrassing Super Bowl performance. Sam Johnson, a popular voice teacher on YouTube, has put it perfectly - Adam Levine seems to be on auto-pilot these days, and it also applies to his musical output. If you are no longer interested the art you make, yet you still want your annual income, there's no better way than chasing the current trends and making the most bland and inoffensive music possible, which perfectly sums up Maroon 5's music since "I Don't Wanna Know". After all, they have been around for more than 20 years, and if the motivation is no longer there, I wouldn't mind if they took a break or something, especially since Levine has a family now.

Hmm I can see where you're going. Brendon Urie is a more charismatic and dynamic voice than Adam Levine, but my issues isn't the fact that the pop has taken over the rock or it's more theatrical, it's that it's not unique pop or unique theatricality or bombast. It feels more and more like Urie and his team are more coasting on the fact he has a great voice but what made him interesting was that he was more than just a great voice. Even if you took out Panic's name and everything post Vices & Virtues or post Too Rare... was under Brendon's name, I'd still say PFTW is a sell-out move. Just look at the writing for the singles, aside from the title track, none of them have the flair or unique wordplay that used to characterize his best work, even in the 2010s. On High Hopes and Hey Look Ma, there isn't even swearing! 

In this case though, it's less a Maroon 5 and more what happened to No Doubt when Gwen Stefani started going solo: highlighting a colorful personality and unique voice overtook matching the lyrics and instrumentation to go along with it.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2019/12/06

1(=) Lizzo - Good as Hell 130.49(+0.24)
2(=) Post Malone - Circles 122.29(-0.45)
3(=) Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 115.91(-1.92)
4(=) Maroon 5 - Memories 99.81(+0.63)
5(=) SHAED - Trampoline 94.63(-0.55)
6(=) Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber - 10,000 Hours 92.18(-1.23)
7(=) Jonas Brothers - Only Human 87.85(-1.99)
8(=) Selena Gomez - Lose You to Love Me 87.50(+1.04)
9(=) Lizzo - Truth Hurts 83.22(-2.18)
10(+1) Chris Brown - No Guidance (feat. Drake) 77.49(-1.01)

28(+2) Layton Greene, Lil Baby & City Girls - Leave Em Alone (feat. PnB Rock) 44.71(+1.03)

35(=) NF - Time 42.33(+1.04)

53(+6) Arizona Zervas - ROXANNE 27.44(+1.57)

55(+7) The Weeknd - Heartless 27.18(+2.23)

56(+2) Quality Control, Lil Baby & DaBaby - Baby 27.17(+0.72)

-(-) Billie Eilish - everything i wanted 12.42(+0.80)

-(-) Tory Lanez & T-Pain - Jerry Sprunger 7.78(+3.54)

[candypaint]

Dec 6, 2019 10:38:59 GMT -5 Juan Carlos said:

Dec 6, 2019 10:24:07 GMT -5 candypaint said:

Xanny’s not a single. I think her team is still pushing ATGGGTH so EIW isn’t really the main priority.

FYI, the latter isn't true, aside the latest banner from AllAccess promoting "All The Good Girls Go To Hell" because Interscope has moved on and they are pushing "Everything I Wanted" now.

Well that sucks. Good Girls has such an awkward peak 😩

[gs]

Dec 6, 2019 10:35:52 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

US Spotify, week ending 12/5/19

1 Heartless by The Weeknd 11,224,390
2 ROXANNE by Arizona Zervas 10,198,981
3 Blinding Lights by The Weeknd 9,583,216
4 Circles by Post Malone 7,959,651
5 everything i wanted by Billie Eilish 7,130,246
6 Falling by Trevor Daniel 6,654,951
7 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM by Travis Scott 6,526,382
8 BOP by DaBaby 6,054,623
9 All I Want for Christmas Is You by Mariah Carey 5,917,003
10 Bandit (with YoungBoy Never Broke Again) by Juice WRLD 5,684,584

"Hot" is #9 combined

That's about 25,500,000 ODS streams for Heartless using last week's Spotify ratio (44.3%)

Updated estimates:

Circles
Sales: 14,000
ODS: 16,300,000
YouTube/UGC: 3,600,000
Passive: 2,600,000
Radio: 91,000,000
= 28,000

Heartless
Sales: 18,000 (digital only)
ODS: 25,500,000
YouTube/UGC: 6,500,000
Passive: 500,000
Radio: 24,500,000
= 25,600 (minimum)

Going to need at least 15,000 of those physicals to reach Circles

[Deleted]

Dec 6, 2019 10:40:58 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Dec 6, 2019 10:22:56 GMT -5 @aprettyoddmusicbox said:

Hmm I can see where you're going. Brendon Urie is a more charismatic and dynamic voice than Adam Levine, but my issues isn't the fact that the pop has taken over the rock or it's more theatrical, it's that it's not unique pop or unique theatricality or bombast. It feels more and more like Urie and his team are more coasting on the fact he has a great voice but what made him interesting was that he was more than just a great voice. Even if you took out Panic's name and everything post Vices & Virtues or post Too Rare... was under Brendon's name, I'd still say PFTW is a sell-out move. Just look at the writing for the singles, aside from the title track, none of them have the flair or unique wordplay that used to characterize his best work, even in the 2010s. On High Hopes and Hey Look Ma, there isn't even swearing! 

In this case though, it's less a Maroon 5 and more what happened to No Doubt when Gwen Stefani started going solo: highlighting a colorful personality and unique voice overtook matching the lyrics and instrumentation to go along with it.

Yes! Now there's a much more appropriate comparison, even if I don't fully agree with everything you said. Despite enjoying "Into The Unknown", for example, I did have that worrying feeling that Brendon and his production team might start believing that his incredible voice and natural charisma will singlehandedly carry whatever song is given to him, and they might rely on previous successful tropes to keep his success, similar with Gwen Stefani and the interpolation of classic musical songs and the whole talking/rapping shtick. That was honestly an incredible comparison, and a much superior one to the usual "Brendon Urie is the new Adam Levine" drivel that music critics online keep insisting.

However, I personally enjoyed a good part of the songs on "Pray For The Wicked". I like how the album was built like a Broadway musical and the overarching theme of an aspiring artist discovering the dark aspects of fame. "High Hopes" is indeed your typical by-the-numbers motivational song that is carried by Urie's vocals and powerful presence, but it works within the context of the album and it was particularly refreshing as a hit amid the dreary and bleak 2018 music landscape (it's also rather special to me because it was one of the songs that encouraged me to start tracking the Billboard Charts). As for "Hey Look Ma, I Made It", I believe it's much darker and reminiscent of early Panic! than most people think, especially when taking into account the music video. The juxtaposition between the artificially cheerful chorus and the introspective verses works wonderfully in my opinion, and the content reminds me of songs like "The Only Difference..." and "London Beckoned...", despite being a bit euphemistic and less willing to expose the music industry.

Looking at the singles alone, though, I totally get your impression, especially since "Dancing's Not A Crime" is rather basic and uninspired as well in its lyrics and instrumentation. However, if you haven't listened to the deep cuts already, tracks like "Roaring 20s", "The Overpass", and "King Of The Clouds" still have the unique and interesting wordplay that characterizes Panic!'s work. If you have and your opinion remains unchanged, though, each to their own, and I respect your opinion

(and my apologies for a rather long reply which might be off-topic in this thread, but well, I did get inspired 😁)

[crazyb]

Dec 6, 2019 7:09:54 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Unless they're DJ Khaled, I doubt many artists are looking to really secure a number-one on Billboard nowadays. The merch bundles are just to get more money people, and the charts are a reflection of which songs were the most bought/streamed songs that week, the number-one single label is just a byproduct.

Artists and labels are 100% still trying to get number ones. 

[candypaint]

Dec 6, 2019 13:11:33 GMT -5 crazyb said:

Dec 6, 2019 7:09:54 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Unless they're DJ Khaled, I doubt many artists are looking to really secure a number-one on Billboard nowadays. The merch bundles are just to get more money people, and the charts are a reflection of which songs were the most bought/streamed songs that week, the number-one single label is just a byproduct.

Artists and labels are 100% still trying to get number ones. 

Since the beginning of time 😂

[Mauricio]

The HDD's numbers for 'Heartless' are very low. The ones for 'Blinding lights' are good!

[gs]

Dec 6, 2019 13:49:31 GMT -5 Mauricio said:

The HDD's numbers for 'Heartless' are very low. The ones for 'Blinding lights' are good!

Those numbers don't even make sense, how could Heartless be below Blinding Lights 

[moonlite]

Yea that Heartless number is definitely inaccurate

[dovahduck]

Dec 6, 2019 13:51:32 GMT -5 gs said:

Dec 6, 2019 13:49:31 GMT -5 Mauricio said:

The HDD's numbers for 'Heartless' are very low. The ones for 'Blinding lights' are good!

Those numbers don't even make sense, how could Heartless be below Blinding Lights 

They definitely got those two switched up or screwed up the numbers bruh.

[Deleted]

think you guys are forgetting heartless was released before blinding lights and it lost out on 2 days of this tracking week

[moonlite]

Dec 6, 2019 14:49:21 GMT -5 @lil14 said:

think you guys are forgetting heartless was released before blinding lights and it lost out on 2 days of this tracking week

Heartless was still ahead of Blinding Lights on AM and Spotify for the entire week

[violentdreams]

Also, in order for those numbers to be true, Heartless would have to have gotten >7 million AM streams for the entire week. It just doesn't add up.

[Enigma.]

Yea there must be an error. And Blinding Lights is now #3 behind Woah on Apple Music and judging by relatively poor Hot 100 position for Woah, those numbers BL got last week were nothing spectacular, not that Heartless's were either but it is still #1 at least.

[iHype.]

Dec 6, 2019 7:09:54 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Unless they're DJ Khaled, I doubt many artists are looking to really secure a number-one on Billboard nowadays. The merch bundles are just to get more money people, and the charts are a reflection of which songs were the most bought/streamed songs that week, the number-one single label is just a byproduct.

Lol no, they definitely care. 

The Weeknd isn't personally hand-signing thousands of $5 CDs because he just decided he felt like wasting his time doing such. 

Bundles actually make artists less money too. They are the same priced items (until the new rule in January), but with an album included, they now have to pay a portion of the revenue to labels, who originally had no hand in the cookie jar when an artist sold a t-shirt/tour ticket in most instances. 

[Crimsonio]

I am hoping that Heartless somehow gets to #1, Circles is starting to burn on me. Time for Take What You Want to be promoted!

[dovahduck]

If only fhas was still doing predictions... Their input would definitely be useful towards knowing wether "Heartless" could reach number one or not. I remember they were more accurate than Simon as well.

[violentdreams]

I just don't see it closing the current 20-30 point deficit it has with Circles. Maybe by some miracle the physical sales will be higher than expected and it'll eek out, but I'm not gonna get my hopes up.

[degen]

Dec 6, 2019 13:51:32 GMT -5 gs said:

Dec 6, 2019 13:49:31 GMT -5 Mauricio said:

The HDD's numbers for 'Heartless' are very low. The ones for 'Blinding lights' are good!

Those numbers don't even make sense, how could Heartless be below Blinding Lights 

Even if “Heartless” is above, one thing is clear: “Blinding Lights” is doing exceptionally well for not being the main single. “Heartless” is barely beating it and It has a music video and airplay to aid it. I hope his team doesn’t sleep on Blinding Lights and send it to radio soon.