HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Dec 25, 2019 9:05:07 GMT -5
I don't think the holiday songs' airplay points will be that high, given it's just three days of mass airplay (Monday-Wednesday).
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Post by thegreatdivine on Dec 25, 2019 9:05:57 GMT -5
I find it interesting that Blinding Lights is now above Heartless on Spotify. Seems like that track is gonna stick around a lot longer, especially once radio kicks in. "Blinding Lights" is #2 on Today's Top Hits, "Heartless" is #10 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ also #12 on Pop Rising. they're slowly pushing Blinding Lights more now Blinding Lights is still behind Heartless on all metrics. If any song will see any significant rise in it's chart position after the Christmas songs fall off, it'll be Heartless. |
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Post by violentdreams on Dec 25, 2019 9:19:14 GMT -5
"Blinding Lights" is #2 on Today's Top Hits, "Heartless" is #10 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ also #12 on Pop Rising. they're slowly pushing Blinding Lights more now Blinding Lights is still behind Heartless on all metrics. If any song will see any significant rise in it's chart position after the Christmas songs fall off, it'll be Heartless. Heartless is being propped up by radio at this point, it's about neck and neck with Blinding Lights on streaming (and neither are doing particularly well). It'd be easier to just drop all support for Heartless and put sole focus on pushing Blinding Lights, rather than trying to let both songs be hits at once. Once the music video drops, I anticipate that's what they'll start doing. |
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Dec 25, 2019 9:20:15 GMT -5
For the comparable chart week last year, AIWFCIY had 24.2 million in audience for the week, which included five days after Christmas. This year has four days, so the total should be higher, but not as high as 49m. Thus, other holiday tracks' airplay likely also won't be as high as what's listed in the predictions.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Dec 25, 2019 9:53:02 GMT -5
Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2019/12/25
1(=) Post Malone - Circles 128.85(+0.23)
2(=) Lizzo - Good as Hell 126.29(+1.12)
3(=) Maroon 5 - Memories 111.65(-2.52)
4(=) Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber - 10,000 Hours 106.42(-1.59)
5(=) Selena Gomez - Lose You to Love Me 103.52(-0.41)
6(=) Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 100.69(-1.21)
7(=) SHAED - Trampoline 81.64(-0.38)
8(=) Jonas Brothers - Only Human 75.65(-0.18)
9(=) Chris Brown - No Guidance (feat. Drake) 72.94(-0.97)
10(=) Lizzo - Truth Hurts 66.29(-0.43)
41(+4) DaBaby - BOP 32.90(+0.79)
44(+2) Harry Styles - Adore You 32.50(+0.72)
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annoymous1
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Post by annoymous1 on Dec 25, 2019 9:58:30 GMT -5
Dang that Drop for Maroon 5(-2.52). They are usually a radio darling maybe it's because of the usual drop around this time of year.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Dec 25, 2019 10:10:34 GMT -5
Santa Tell Me is #6 on Spotify with 1.45M. It'll most likely re-enter the Hot 100.
21 songs over 1M, thanks to Xmas of course.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 25, 2019 10:19:36 GMT -5
Santa Tell Me is #6 on Spotify with 1.45M. It'll most likely re-enter the Hot 100. 21 songs over 1M, thanks to Xmas of course. We stan a future classic.  |
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shaz196
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Post by shaz196 on Dec 25, 2019 10:32:17 GMT -5
Despite the Christmas Eve surge, The Box still had a big increase on Spotify for a Tuesday. Roddy and his people need to go all out with this song it's clearly going to be a big hit.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Dec 25, 2019 10:34:48 GMT -5
Santa Tell Me is #6 on Spotify with 1.45M. It'll most likely re-enter the Hot 100. 21 songs over 1M, thanks to Xmas of course. We stan a future classic. Yea, it's by far the most popular Xmas song released in the 2010s. |
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moonlite
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Post by moonlite on Dec 25, 2019 10:52:26 GMT -5
We stan a future classic. Yea, it's by far the most popular Xmas song released in the 2010s. What about that Kelly Clarkson song? |
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spicymapping
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Post by spicymapping on Dec 25, 2019 11:17:20 GMT -5
Yeah, at least as of now UTT is blowing it away - though i expect it to be more popular in the long run.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Dec 25, 2019 11:34:53 GMT -5
On streaming STM is more popular, dunno about the airplay though.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Dec 25, 2019 12:03:31 GMT -5
I'm not sure where to put this, but since this thread used to have daily Mediabase updates:  |
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moonlite
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Post by moonlite on Dec 25, 2019 12:38:51 GMT -5
On streaming STM is more popular, dunno about the airplay though. UTT has actually been higher than STM on the Holiday Streaming Songs chart, at least for the last 2 seasons |
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spicymapping
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ahoe s2e11 out now
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Post by spicymapping on Dec 25, 2019 12:54:42 GMT -5
suicidal is above lose you to love me on itunes because we live in a society
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Post by violentdreams on Dec 25, 2019 12:58:29 GMT -5
suicidal is above lose you to love me on itunes because we live in a society Both songs are probably selling like 10 copies, so it ultimately doesn't matter. |
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lazer
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Post by lazer on Dec 25, 2019 13:01:47 GMT -5
Idk why people still use iTunes as a factor to determine the songs success. Even radio lasted more than digital sales.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Dec 25, 2019 13:10:40 GMT -5
Keep in mind these are worldwide Spotify streams:
by Brian Cantor
The Christmas staple had the biggest streaming day ever.
Last Christmas Eve, Mariah Carey’s “All I Want For Christmas Is You” broke the single-day Global Spotify record with 10.819 million streams.
A few months later, Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber’s “I Don’t Care” seized the all-time crown with an opening day tally of 10.977 million.
Tuesday, “All I Want For Christmas Is You” took back the throne.
The Christmas classic amassed 12.029 million streams on Christmas Eve 2019, setting a new high for most Spotify streams in one day.
The song naturally took #1 on the daily Spotify streaming chart. Its closes competition came from Wham’s “Last Christmas,” which amassed a song-best 10.070 million streams.
Ariana Grande’s “Santa Tell Me” followed at #3 with 7.093 million (also a song-best).
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Dec 25, 2019 13:16:22 GMT -5
Idk why people still use iTunes as a factor to determine the songs success. Even radio lasted more than digital sales. It still counts toward the Hot 100 even though the numbers have suffered a considerable reduction. Being #1 in Digital Song Sales in a given week no longer guarantees charting in the Hot 100.
The radio along with streaming are the two main factors the major hits seem to be having longer chart runs. Just think about all those songs during the last couple of years that all managed to be in the top 10 26 weeks weeks or more.
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chanman
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Post by chanman on Dec 25, 2019 13:46:20 GMT -5
Idk why people still use iTunes as a factor to determine the songs success. Even radio lasted more than digital sales. Even though digital sales are low, I still use it because of the faster turnover of songs on the list, when compared to radio or streaming charts. Many artists can also get a better chance to move up on this chart or even promote on iTunes. Regardless of the low contribution to the Hot100 which seems to be a concern by many, I would still like to know which one people are buying so that it can help me to determine which one I buy too. |
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13
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Post by 13 on Dec 25, 2019 13:59:10 GMT -5
Keep in mind these are worldwide Spotify streams:
by Brian Cantor
The Christmas staple had the biggest streaming day ever.
Last Christmas Eve, Mariah Carey’s “All I Want For Christmas Is You” broke the single-day Global Spotify record with 10.819 million streams.
A few months later, Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber’s “I Don’t Care” seized the all-time crown with an opening day tally of 10.977 million.
Tuesday, “All I Want For Christmas Is You” took back the throne.
The Christmas classic amassed 12.029 million streams on Christmas Eve 2019, setting a new high for most Spotify streams in one day.
The song naturally took #1 on the daily Spotify streaming chart. Its closes competition came from Wham’s “Last Christmas,” which amassed a song-best 10.070 million streams.
Ariana Grande’s “Santa Tell Me” followed at #3 with 7.093 million (also a song-best).
#4 was Dance Monkey though. What a powerhouse! |
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Post by KeepDeanWeird on Dec 25, 2019 14:28:43 GMT -5
I don't think the holiday songs' airplay points will be that high, given it's just three days of mass airplay (Monday-Wednesday). The radio tracking week just amplifies how Billboard’s H100 rules are arbitrary. Even labels do deals on Friday to launch a new track, but it certainly doesn’t have chart impact for the track’s first true week, because the airplay launch is bundled with previous week’s streams/sales. Regarding future holiday chart action, next year Xmas falls on Friday because of Leap Year. While Xmas on a Thursday clearly would be the ultimate max for streaming, that week should be incredibly solid. Streaming/sales through 24th and with 5 days of holiday airplay. |
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Dec 25, 2019 15:54:56 GMT -5
I'll do a second update in a bit, totally didn't realize that radio tracking is on a different day lmao
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Post by ificanthaveyou on Dec 25, 2019 17:00:55 GMT -5
So can we assume AIWFC has #1 on lock?
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on Dec 25, 2019 17:31:00 GMT -5
Apple Music (12/24) | AM | Song | Spotify US Rank | Hot 100 Rank (12/28) | | #2 | Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You | #1 | #1 | | #6 | Michael Bublé - It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas | #11 | not charting | | #13 | Bobby Helms - Jingle Bell Rock | #3 | #9 | | #14 | Wham! - Last Christmas | #7 | #17 | | #17 | Eartha Kitt - Santa Baby | #48 | not charting | | #18 | Pentatonix - Hallelujah | #115 | not charting | | #20 | José Feliciano - Feliz Navidad | #15 | #23 | | #22 | Andy Williams - It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year | #5 | #15 | | #24 | Brenda Lee - Rockin Around The Christmas Tree | #2 | #2 | | #41 | The Ronettes - Sleigh Ride | #45 | #37 | | #45 | Elvis Presley - Blue Christmas | #25 | not charting | | #48 | Jackson 5 - I Saw Mommy Kissing Santa Claus | #38 | not charting | | #49 | Bing Crosby - White Christmas | #16 | not charting | | #52 | Bruce Springsteen - Santa Claus Is Comin To Town | #61 | not charting | | #53 | Darlene Love - Christmas (Baby Please Come Home) | #20 | not charting | | #58 | Nat King Cole - The Christmas Song | #8 | #30 | | #61 | Dean Martin - Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow! | #36 | #28 | | #67 | Paul McCartney - Wonderful Christmastime | #21 | not charting | | #84 | John Lennon - Happy Xmas (War Is Over) | #22 | not charting | | #87 | Stevie Wonder - What Christmas Means To Me | #76 | not charting | | #88 | Pentatonix - Grown-Up Christmas List | not charting | not charting | | #92 | Eagles - Please Come Home For Christmas | not charting | not charting | | #98 | Donny Hathaway - This Christmas | #58 | not charting | | #99 | Justin Bieber - Mistletoe | #13 | not charting |
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moonlite
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Post by moonlite on Dec 25, 2019 17:41:32 GMT -5
So can we assume AIWFC has #1 on lock? Of course |
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Dec 25, 2019 17:43:12 GMT -5
 early predictions, fixed. also updated some streaming numbers based on Spotify and my estimates of Amazon Music |
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𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤
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Post by 𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤 on Dec 25, 2019 17:49:16 GMT -5
Hoping NKC’s “Christmas Song” reaches top 10, it’s my fave holiday classic (mainly because of my dear mother).
Also - holy hell at Dance Monkey being Top 5 without Xmas songs
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jtd Thee Stallion
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Post by jtd Thee Stallion on Dec 25, 2019 18:16:55 GMT -5
Hoping NKC’s “Christmas Song” reaches top 10, it’s my fave holiday classic (mainly because of my dear mother). Also - holy hell at Dance Monkey being Top 5 without Xmas songs and Ballin’ being #6 |
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