Billboard Hot 100: 03/14/2020

[Crimsonio]

Gaga's streaming has stayed stable today and is gaining FAST on radio. I have her debuting at #3 right now with at least 80K sales. There is a chance she could leapfrog Life Is Good for #2 or even go #1 if The Box keeps losing streams.

[tuna]

hahaha lol no

[kierz7]

Mar 3, 2020 10:40:08 GMT -5 Crimsonio said:

Gaga's streaming has stayed stable today and is gaining FAST on radio. I have her debuting at #3 right now with at least 80K sales. There is a chance she could leapfrog Life Is Good for #2 or even go #1 if The Box keeps losing streams.

LMAO.

[annoymous1]

Yuck! Not Hot Girl Bummer surpassing The Box on radio. I joke about the Hot Girl stuff aside from that this song is literally ass with it's misogynist lyrics and another fuckboy anthem that should go away ASAP.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Honestly, I don't see Gaga in the top 5. Maybe I'm wrong, we'll see.

[jenglisbe]

Mar 3, 2020 10:40:08 GMT -5 Crimsonio said:

Gaga's streaming has stayed stable today and is gaining FAST on radio. I have her debuting at #3 right now with at least 80K sales. There is a chance she could leapfrog Life Is Good for #2 or even go #1 if The Box keeps losing streams.

What are you predicting for the 8th day effect?

[violentdreams]

Mar 3, 2020 10:42:59 GMT -5 tuna said:

hahaha lol no

I think I want to see the song succeed solely to spite weird dismissive posts like this lol.

[Choco]

Mar 3, 2020 11:15:22 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Mar 3, 2020 10:40:08 GMT -5 Crimsonio said:

Gaga's streaming has stayed stable today and is gaining FAST on radio. I have her debuting at #3 right now with at least 80K sales. There is a chance she could leapfrog Life Is Good for #2 or even go #1 if The Box keeps losing streams.

What are you predicting for the 8th day effect?

I'm fairly sure he expects it to gain spins on it's 8th day.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Mar 3, 2020 10:40:08 GMT -5 Crimsonio said:

Gaga's streaming has stayed stable today and is gaining FAST on radio. I have her debuting at #3 right now with at least 80K sales. There is a chance she could leapfrog Life Is Good for #2 or even go #1 if The Box keeps losing streams.

Even with The Box finally going under 2M today, it is still nearly twice as big on Spotify than SL and it may be losing streams but I don't see it leaving the Top 10 any time soon. So yeah, no way it goes #1.

[jayhawk1117]

Even if we underestimate sales again, and it gets 100k (practically impossible), I don't think that would make up the streaming gap to push it to 1 let alone top 3.

[Crimsonio]

Mar 3, 2020 11:15:22 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Mar 3, 2020 10:40:08 GMT -5 Crimsonio said:

Gaga's streaming has stayed stable today and is gaining FAST on radio. I have her debuting at #3 right now with at least 80K sales. There is a chance she could leapfrog Life Is Good for #2 or even go #1 if The Box keeps losing streams.

What are you predicting for the 8th day effect?

It'll probably be pretty harsh, however, it's gotten tons of HAC adds the past few days and is starting to get more Pop adds each and everyday. But we'll see...

[Crimsonio]

Mar 3, 2020 11:23:04 GMT -5 Choco said:

Mar 3, 2020 11:15:22 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

What are you predicting for the 8th day effect?

I'm fairly sure he expects it to gain spins on it's 8th day.

I'm very disappointed in you for making fun of my intelligence, of course I know songs lose spins on their 8th day. I cannot believe you would do this to me.

[tuna]

Mar 3, 2020 11:16:36 GMT -5 violentdreams said:

Mar 3, 2020 10:42:59 GMT -5 tuna said:

hahaha lol no

I think I want to see the song succeed solely to spite weird dismissive posts like this lol.

Feel free to prove me wrong. I just don't see it happening

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Even if this is another ON situation where we underestimate sales, The Box is just an force on streaming and Youtube.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Bieber has started releasing dance videos for a Changes visual album just like what he did with Purpose

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Yeah. I noticed that as well. For me some reason, they reminded me of the performance that Halsey did of Graveyard at the AMAs last year.

[violentdreams]

Mar 3, 2020 11:42:17 GMT -5 tuna said:

Mar 3, 2020 11:16:36 GMT -5 violentdreams said:

I think I want to see the song succeed solely to spite weird dismissive posts like this lol.

Feel free to prove me wrong. I just don't see it happening

You LITERALLY just watched a BTS song debut top 5 off the strength of high sales and moderate streaming (and less radio) lmao. I'm just saying to not take such a snarky and mocking tone when there is precedent for what the user you quoted said that is not even a week old. It comes across less like you being realistic and more like you just wanting to see the song fail.

[lady𝓐fan]

Mar 3, 2020 11:16:36 GMT -5 violentdreams said:

Mar 3, 2020 10:42:59 GMT -5 tuna said:

hahaha lol no

I think I want to see the song succeed solely to spite weird dismissive posts like this lol.

Same. What happened to having an intelligent discussion about the charts, and not just replying “lol no” or “lmao” to any post that you don’t agree with? I’m guilty of doing that sometimes, of course, but come on. Let’s have some deeper-level discussion and not entirely dismiss the opinions of others.

[Lukas]

Lol y'all are so dismissive. Hopefully Stupid Love debuts inside top 2 and gets sales numbers in triple digits of thousands just to prove y'all wrong.

I'm just going to leave these two independent predictions here.

[fhas]

I think the point here is that the original post was worded in a way that felt like wishful thinking, but he actually had a point about the song being a top 3 contender if his sales prediction is accurate.

[Enigma.]

I'm a stan but don't think that 100k is true until I see it. Would be amazing of course!!

[Deleted]

Mar 3, 2020 10:28:49 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

Mar 3, 2020 9:39:39 GMT -5 tuna said:

i don't think Bad Bunny has as much of an annoying and angry fanbase as BTS

Actually, I don't think any other musical artist has.

Even current fans from Taylor Swift and especially Ariana Grande?

Any fanbase of a massively popular artist (mostly from the pop genre) is bound to have its rabid supporters who go around sending death threats to whoever dares to criticize their faves in the slightest.

[jayhawk1117]

Well I'll be damned. Slay Gaga slay

[Lukas]

Mar 3, 2020 13:29:54 GMT -5 fhas said:

I think the point here is that the original post was worded in a way that felt like wishful thinking, but he actually had a point about the song being a top 3 contender if his sales prediction is accurate.

You do have a good point here about the post seeming like "it felt like wishful thinking" especially the part where the OP was thinking the song could go to #1 if The Box lost enough streams.

Still though, the fact that the OP said this was a prediction based off of numbers, cited one (the 80k which you said), and that there's literally a post pinned near the top of this forum that explains how to make estimates on the Billboard Hot 100 should be enough proof that the poster is actually making a prediction on raw data and not doing wishful thinking.

I'm not saying that they're correct, and whether or not they are doesn't really matter here. However, I strongly believe that it was incredibly unnecessary for people to dismiss the OP's predictions by 1) saying "oh it's not gonna happen" when a song literally debuted inside the top 5 due to high sales alone, and with less streams/radio than SL said (that's basically what violentdreams said but eh), and 2) call their prediction wrong by assuming that they did something wrong (like the 8th day effect on radio) when they said that they didn't. Especially by people whose predictions thus far are basically "oh I think song [X] will debut here." This was why I was annoyed by the conversation here and why I felt like I had to step in by posting other independent predictions that basically led to the same conclusion.

TL;DR. I respect your point, but the severe magnitude of which people dismissed the OP’s predictions in this thread was why I felt like I needed to step in.

[tuna]

I wouldn’t even complain if it debuted top 2 because at least then the top 3 would change positions, but I don’t see it happening. The most dedicated stanbase in the world only notched 80K sales.

[Crimsonio]

Mar 3, 2020 14:55:31 GMT -5 Lukas said:

Mar 3, 2020 13:29:54 GMT -5 fhas said:

I think the point here is that the original post was worded in a way that felt like wishful thinking, but he actually had a point about the song being a top 3 contender if his sales prediction is accurate.

You do have a good point here about the post seeming like "it felt like wishful thinking" especially the part where the OP was thinking the song could go to #1 if The Box lost enough streams.

Still though, the fact that the OP said this was a prediction based off of numbers, cited one (the 80k which you said), and that there's literally a post pinned near the top of this forum that explains how to make estimates on the Billboard Hot 100 should be enough proof that the poster is actually making a prediction on raw data and not doing wishful thinking.

I'm not saying that they're correct, and whether or not they are doesn't really matter here. However, I strongly believe that it was incredibly unnecessary for people to dismiss the OP's predictions by 1) saying "oh it's not gonna happen" when a song literally debuted inside the top 5 due to high sales alone, and with less streams/radio than SL said (that's basically what violentdreams said but eh), and 2) call their prediction wrong by assuming that they did something wrong (like the 8th day effect on radio) when they said that they didn't. Especially by people whose predictions thus far are basically "oh I think song [X] will debut here." This was why I was annoyed by the conversation here and why I felt like I had to step in by posting other independent predictions that basically led to the same conclusion.

TL;DR. I respect your point, but the severe magnitude of which people dismissed the OP’s predictions in this thread was why I felt like I needed to step in.

Thank you for coming to my defense, I really appreciate it and yes I was actually pretty conservative with the sales, it could be in the range of 80-95K, it really just depends on all the physicals from her website. 

[Enigma.]

Where it would be with the expected 60-70k?

[Crimsonio]

Mar 3, 2020 15:33:25 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Where it would be with the expected 60-70k?

Hmm, with 60-70K I think it should still be a Top 5 debut, somewhere in the #4-#6 range.

[𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤]

Good lord it would be painful to watch it debut at number 2

I hate songs with peaks of 2 & 11. Every other peak is fine

I’m pretty sure I made that abundantly clear 2 weeks ago when I said it 6 million times about “no time to die” debuting at 11 (which it didn’t) but still

[Naos]

Mar 3, 2020 15:27:17 GMT -5 tuna said:

I wouldn’t even complain if it debuted top 2 because at least then the top 3 would change positions, but I don’t see it happening. The most dedicated stanbase in the world only notched 80K sales.

They had to decide between the album and the single. Think about if it had just been the single by itself. Sales would probably be higher.