iHype.
4x Platinum Member
Joined: October 2014
Posts: 4,714
|
Post by iHype. on Mar 31, 2020 2:09:29 GMT -5
I don't wanna be certain that Drake single will debut #1. You have to consider the circumstances. Sales are dead, it will have basically minimal airplay first week. Blinding Lights is doing 30m streams and will have nearly 100m airplay. Drake will need well over 50 million streams first week, with no music video. Doing over 50 million streams while streaming is down is drastically hard. Iβm sorry what? How will this song βhave minimal airplay.β This is very on brand Drake and will most likely explode up Rhythmic/Urban/Pop and Hot AC all at once. It can very well rake up north of 50 million at radio just in one week. On top of that it will likely dwarf everything else in streaming, even if streaming is down. The Tik Tok challenges will give it a significant boost. Didnβt βIn My Feelingsβ teach you anything? How about βGods Planβ? Sounds like a #1 debut to me. Drake does not do radio deals, and absolutely no song gets 50 million at radio first week with no deal. Even if this does gain steam quick at radio, I can only see it getting up to around 20 million audience first week. Which would still be a near 80 million difference to Weeknd. So yeah, it'd need 50 million+ streams. Which seems hard for ANY artist to do with a song that has no music video in the middle of streaming taking a notable decrease. |
|
degen
2x Platinum Member
Banned
Joined: August 2019
Posts: 2,173
|
Post by degen on Mar 31, 2020 2:14:35 GMT -5
Iβm sorry what? How will this song βhave minimal airplay.β This is very on brand Drake and will most likely explode up Rhythmic/Urban/Pop and Hot AC all at once. It can very well rake up north of 50 million at radio just in one week. On top of that it will likely dwarf everything else in streaming, even if streaming is down. The Tik Tok challenges will give it a significant boost. Didnβt βIn My Feelingsβ teach you anything? How about βGods Planβ? Sounds like a #1 debut to me. Drake does not do radio deals, and absolutely no song gets 50 million at radio first week with no deal.Β Even if this does gain steam quick at radio, I can only see it getting up to around 20 million audience first week. Which would still be a near 80 million difference to Weeknd. So yeah, it'd need 50 million+ streams. Which seems hard for ANY artist to do with a song that has no music video in the middle of streaming taking a notable decrease. βBlinding Lightsβ streaming numbers were inflated last week due to the album release, it will come down some by next week. Songs like βIn My Feelingsβ and βOld Town Roadβ didnβt need a music video initially, nor much airplay, to hit #1 on the Hot 100. They were fueled by viral challenges. This falls right in that trajectory. Also I doubt it will only get 20 million first week in airplay. Radio needs something new. Everything in the top 15 of the airplay charts right now is left overs from 2019. We are now in April. This sounds like it can be a big spring/summer hit. |
|
GP
4x Platinum Member
TOOOO BE LOOOVED
Joined: December 2017
Posts: 4,974 
|
Post by GP on Mar 31, 2020 3:48:36 GMT -5
  Yet decreasing radio simply 20% or 30% for the time being would be 'insane' and 'nothing to possibly show that's realistic'.  Metropolitan areas are the ones that have radio stations with the highest ratings/audience too, so I imagine the metropolitan decreases are more inline with radio's decreases. Keep in mind this data is from March 14-20. Almost two weeks ago, before more things started being cancelled/closed/lockdown. Why did I think this was Portugal's flag? I- Drake is back which seems like a #1 guarantee for me..let's see how high his streams could go even with corona? |
|
Normi
6x Platinum Member
Original Pop Flop Stan
probably high right now
Joined: February 2017
Posts: 6,931
|
Post by Normi on Mar 31, 2020 3:49:48 GMT -5
Traffic is down, there is evidence that, traffic is down So....? Is there any proof that connects traffic to radio audiences? Lmao some people People who listen to the radio at work probably do the same from home And just because streaming was so dominant before Corona doesn't mean they need to adjust that now I never heard no one say that when streaming became bigger than radio I... Wow. |
|
iHype.
4x Platinum Member
Joined: October 2014
Posts: 4,714
|
Post by iHype. on Mar 31, 2020 4:08:14 GMT -5
So....? Is there any proof that connects traffic to radio audiences? Is this a legitimate question?.... Itβs common knowledge that the large majority of radio consumption is tied to traveling inside a car. This is why every radio station has their highest ratings during rush hour traffic in the morning, and mid-afternoon.... when there is more traffic. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drive_time |
|
Enigma.
Diamond Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 14,134
|
Post by Enigma. on Mar 31, 2020 4:28:42 GMT -5
It's obvious that drive time is down and so is the amount of time listening to radio in a car. But what about factories where people are workin? Hospitals? Grocery stores? Gyms (that are still open, there are some here)? Banks? Post offices?
All these might have a RADIO on and millions of people working there.
|
|
iHype.
4x Platinum Member
Joined: October 2014
Posts: 4,714
|
Post by iHype. on Mar 31, 2020 4:31:15 GMT -5
It's obvious that drive time is down and so is the amount of time listening to radio in a car. But what about factories where people are workin? Hospitals? Grocery stores? Gyms (that are still open, there are some here)? Banks? Post offices? All these might have a RADIO on and millions of people working there. Okay, this is the point being made. There is still some people listening to radio, nobody is saying every single American stopped. However it's a considerable less amount than reflected currently. I really don't get why that simply being pointed out is so controversial to agree with. People aren't going to post offices, banks, etc as much as prior. They are also not working in factories as much as prior. Grocery stores are busy, but many don't play radio, and those that do don't play current hit radio stations like Z100. People are more than likely not going to be hearing Blinding Lights & Say So playing in Walmart... |
|
Enigma.
Diamond Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 14,134
|
Post by Enigma. on Mar 31, 2020 4:35:36 GMT -5
IF they decide to adjust it, they could simply reduce the radio that 30% and see what happens there. Maybe someone could do a mock up of the possible Hot 100 outcome?
|
|
|
|
Post by thegreatdivine on Mar 31, 2020 4:43:08 GMT -5
Finally. A tracking week where I can post about Drake endlessly. Hallelujah. |
|
Normi
6x Platinum Member
Original Pop Flop Stan
probably high right now
Joined: February 2017
Posts: 6,931
|
Post by Normi on Mar 31, 2020 4:44:41 GMT -5
There's still no receipt stating that the audience lowered because of the virus outbreak Sure people listen to radio on their way to and at work but the same people probably listen to radio all day now because they work from home People just don't stop listening to music because there's a virus spreading around |
|
gs
Charting
Joined: October 2019
Posts: 447
|
Post by gs on Mar 31, 2020 4:52:51 GMT -5
IF they decide to adjust it, they could simply reduce the radio that 30% and see what happens there. Maybe someone could do a mock up of the possible Hot 100 outcome? I haven't done a solid adjustment for this week yet, but here's a rough top 10 with airplay reduced 30% 1. Blinding Lights 30,900 (=) 2. The Box 26,500 (=) 3. Don't Start Now 20,000 (=) 4. Life Is Good 18,700 (+2)5. Heartless 18,400 (-1)
6. Circles 17,000 (-1)7. Intentions 15,000 (+1)8. Adore You 14,900 (-1)9. Say So 14,700 (=) 10. ROXANNE 14,400 (=) |
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2020 5:13:14 GMT -5
There's still no receipt stating that the audience lowered because of the virus outbreak Sure people listen to radio on their way to and at work but the same people probably listen to radio all day now because they work from home People just don't stop listening to music because there's a virus spreading around I'm going to chalk this up to you not being from the US to truly understand listening culture here, but yes, it is a statistical fact that traffic is connected to radio audiences: Given the plethora of listening options now available β from podcasts to music streaming β what is keeping listeners hooked to AM/FM radio? The most common reason comes down to Americaβs love of the automobile, as the most frequently cited reason (71%) is that itβs easiest to listen in the car. This is not surprising, given that almost all cars, new and old, will have a traditional radio in place....
Respondents continue to spend more time listening to their home station using traditional AM/FM radio than they spend on digital methods (computer, mobile, smart speaker, podcasts)....
The greatest percentage of time spent with the home station is on AM/FM radio in a vehicle (43% of a typical weekβs time spent), which was more than all the digital listening platforms combined.www.marketingcharts.com/cross-media-and-traditional/radio-traditional-and-cross-channel-108187(slight disclaimer: that survey polled both US and Canadian residents) Lack of traffic is a double whammy because on top of people not spending as much time in the place where they listen to radio the most (their vehicles), they're also far less likely to listen to radio if listening on a streaming device - i.e. give someone their phone or laptop and they are more likely to open up Spotify or Apple than their local station's website - and since we're at home we are more likely to be on the phone or laptop than near a traditional radio. The audience will be lower because there will be less people spending time near a radio in their cars. Period. The only reason to not adjust the numbers is if one thinks this will all be over soon, but it's clear that it won't be so any lack of adjustment would be a straight up lie. I myself haven't listened to the radio since I was in the car a week ago. Active streaming otoh is probably going to stay down some because people who typically listen to music passively (i.e. as background while doing other things like working, going to the gym, or hanging out with friends) are no longer doing the other things that they normally have music playing in the background for. |
|
GP
4x Platinum Member
TOOOO BE LOOOVED
Joined: December 2017
Posts: 4,974
|
Post by GP on Mar 31, 2020 5:54:01 GMT -5
but this might mean that the tracking now...could influence the radio number in like the fall...?
|
|
dremolus - solarpunk
Diamond Member
ππ§π€π’ πππ‘ππ¨π©ππ£π π©π€ π©ππ ππππ‘ππ₯π₯ππ£ππ¨, ππ©π€π₯ π©ππ π.π. πππ§ πππ
Joined: August 2019
Posts: 13,311
My Reviews
Pronouns: (he/him/they)
|
Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Mar 31, 2020 9:11:19 GMT -5
Blinding Lights re-took the top spot on Spotify lmao
|
|
dremolus - solarpunk
Diamond Member
ππ§π€π’ πππ‘ππ¨π©ππ£π π©π€ π©ππ ππππ‘ππ₯π₯ππ£ππ¨, ππ©π€π₯ π©ππ π.π. πππ§ πππ
Joined: August 2019
Posts: 13,311
My Reviews
Pronouns: (he/him/they)
|
Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Mar 31, 2020 9:51:36 GMT -5
Spotify - 03/30/20
1(+1) The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 1,524,814 (+118,402)
2(-1) Roddy Ricch - The Box 1,480,052 (+60,514)
3(=) Lil Mosey - Blueberry Faygo 1,296,388 (+110,511)
4(=) NAV - Turks 1,057,739 (-25,641)
5(=) Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now 1,043,409 (+46,666)
6(=) Doja Cat - Say So 884,261 (+49,587)
7(+2) SAINt JHN - Roses (Imanbek Remix) 850,591 (+88,877)
8(-1) Jack Harlow - WHATS POPPIN 850,522 (+55,,616)
9(-1) Megan Thee Stallion - Savage 816,938 (+38,101)
10(+1) The Weeknd - In Your Eyes 808,291 (+69,240)
Others:
11(-1) Justin Bieber - Intentions 800,007 (+55,001)
12(=) powfu - death bed (coffee for your head) 761,920 (+72,288)
14(+1) Surfaces - Sunday Best 664,069 (+45,848)
16(=) Dua Lipa - Break Your Heart 700,763 (+37,568)
18(+3) The Weeknd - After Hours 688,283 (+63,991)
19(-1) Lil Uzi Vert - P2 683,623 (+29,457)
21(-1) Future - Life is Good 671,145 (+33,222)
22(+1) NLE Choppa - Walk Em Down 661,162 (+37,821)
23(+1) BENEE - Supalonely 646,659 (+53,920)
25(-6) PARTYNEXTDOOR - BELIEVE IT 627,991 (-19,597)
30(=) Eminem - Godzilla 579,873 (+38,552)
31(-4) Lil Uzi Vert - That Way 579,607 (+27,308)
33(-1) Dua Lipa - Physical 506,389 (+6,641)
35(-1) Polo G - Go Stupid 486,684 (+18,009)
38(debut) The Weeknd - Nothing Compares 475,581
40(-5) Lil Yachty - Oprah's Bank Account 468,552 (+20,403)
43(debut) The Weeknd - Missed You 457,956
60(debut) The Weeknd - Final Lullaby 378,973
61(+4) JP Saxe - If the World was Ending 374,911 (+40,096)
97(+11) DripReport - Skechers 300,273 (+28,600)
|
|
tuna
Platinum Member
weezed to meet you
Joined: July 2019
Posts: 1,510
|
Post by tuna on Mar 31, 2020 10:03:08 GMT -5
remember, Futsal Shuffle also tried to become a Tiktok hit
|
|
gabe
3x Platinum Member
gay
Joined: July 2018
Posts: 3,238
|
Post by gabe on Mar 31, 2020 10:09:14 GMT -5
Finally. A tracking week where I can post about Drake endlessly. Hallelujah. as if you dont do that every week |
|
iggyamo
Gold Member
Joined: April 2019
Posts: 582
|
Post by iggyamo on Mar 31, 2020 10:12:03 GMT -5
remember, Futsal Shuffle also tried to become a Tiktok hit I mean, it was a theme to a pre-established viral dance, so I guess it was naturally big on its first week. Also remember this is Drake, who has much better luck at everything than Uzi. I wouldnβt expect this to go to number 1, since Iβm pretty sure this is just loose single that will only get a decent push in the first week and dropped off but the label leading to no album. On an unrelated note it sounds pretty bad from that snippet, Iβm still getting 7/11 by BeyoncΓ© vibes |
|
annoymous1
7x Platinum Member
Joined: December 2017
Posts: 7,175 
|
Post by annoymous1 on Mar 31, 2020 10:35:34 GMT -5
Drake is a Legend in these pulse threads intentional or not he'll always be brought up instead of fighting it embrace it π.
|
|
|
|
Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Mar 31, 2020 10:49:28 GMT -5
All this discussion about radio is making me dizzy.  For what it is worth, Blinding Lights is on track to be #1 on Radio Songs:
kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2020/03/31
1(=) Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now 135.40(-0.61)
2(=) Post Malone - Circles 125.50(-0.97)
3(=) The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 119.89(+2.92)
4(=) Harry Styles - Adore You 113.73(+1.55)
5(+1) Billie Eilish - everything i wanted 99.73(+0.91)
6(-1) Maroon 5 - Memories 98.80( -0.52)
7(=) Roddy Ricch - The Box 96.33(+0.81)
8(=) blackbear - hot girl bummer 93.46(-0.23)
9(+2) Maren Morris - The Bones 86.69(+1.10)
10(=) Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 86.24(+0.44)
12(=) Camila Cabello - My Oh My (feat. DaBaby) 82.82(+1.91) 13(+1) Doja Cat - Say So 76.29(+1.80)
15(+1) Black Eyed Peas & J Balvin - RITMO (Bad Boys for Life) 68.33(+1.08)
16(+1) Justin Bieber - Intentions (feat. Quavo) 66.87(+1.48) 20(=) Lady Gaga - Stupid Love 55.19(+0.70)
26(+1) Jordan Davis - Slow Dance in a Parking Lot 50.83(+0.76)
43(+1) Thomas Rhett - Beer Can't Fix (feat. Jon Pardi) 39.44(+0.74)
44(+3) Morgan Wallen - Chasin' You 38.82(+0.72)
88(+3) Roddy Ricch - High Fashion (feat. Mustard) 19.89(+0.77)
-(-) Florida Georgia Line - I Love My Country 12.74(+1.15) -(-) The Weeknd - In Your Eyes 12.20(+1.62)
-(-) Dua Lipa - Break My Heart 10.19(+2.18) -(-) Surfaces - Sunday Best 9.46(+0.82)
-(-) PARTYNEXTDOOR & Rihanna - BELIEVE IT 9.15(+0.88)
|
|
annoymous1
7x Platinum Member
Joined: December 2017
Posts: 7,175
|
Post by annoymous1 on Mar 31, 2020 11:17:13 GMT -5
I avoided that radio discussion like the plague but anyways at least Memories is going bye bye and you In your eyes is starting to slowly but surely pick up on radio.
|
|
|
|
Post by mikeymonster on Mar 31, 2020 11:25:05 GMT -5
Could "Break My Heart" get a top 25 debut? It's been stable on Spotify, selling decently on iTunes and has a decent amount of airplay already.
|
|
dremolus - solarpunk
Diamond Member
ππ§π€π’ πππ‘ππ¨π©ππ£π π©π€ π©ππ ππππ‘ππ₯π₯ππ£ππ¨, ππ©π€π₯ π©ππ π.π. πππ§ πππ
Joined: August 2019
Posts: 13,311
My Reviews
Pronouns: (he/him/they)
|
Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Mar 31, 2020 11:30:17 GMT -5
Hopefully, If The World Was Ending and City Of Angels debut. Not because they're good song but I just want that Billboard Breakdown critiques haha.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2020 11:38:09 GMT -5
Could "Break My Heart" get a top 25 debut? It's been stable on Spotify, selling decently on iTunes and has a decent amount of airplay already. It should at least debut higher than "Physical", hopefully. |
|
|
|
Post by thegreatdivine on Mar 31, 2020 11:44:20 GMT -5
remember, Futsal Shuffle also tried to become a Tiktok hit I mean, it was a theme to a pre-established viral dance, so I guess it was naturally big on its first week. Also remember this is Drake, who has much better luck at everything than Uzi. I wouldnβt expect this to go to number 1, since Iβm pretty sure this is just loose single that will only get a decent push in the first week and dropped off but the label leading to no album. On an unrelated note it sounds pretty bad from that snippet, Iβm still getting 7/11 by BeyoncΓ© vibes I honestly don't know how you're getting 7/11 vibes from the song. It sounds nothing like it. |
|
tuna
Platinum Member
weezed to meet you
Joined: July 2019
Posts: 1,510
|
Post by tuna on Mar 31, 2020 11:45:29 GMT -5
City Of Angels is great
|
|
atg
3x Platinum Member
Joined: April 2016
Posts: 3,004
|
Post by atg on Mar 31, 2020 11:54:13 GMT -5
remember, Futsal Shuffle also tried to become a Tiktok hit To be fair it felt like he released another loose song like sanguine paradise or new patek. Everyoneβs focus was on eternal atake and not some dance craze on tik tok. And even when EA came out futsal was at the bottom of the tracklist and was treated as a bonus track so it couldnβt get enough power to stick around |
|
|
|
Post by Mayman on Mar 31, 2020 11:54:31 GMT -5
Yeah I don't even know why we talk about Drake every week. He hasn't had a #1 in a very long time. I think he's been replaced by Travis who has had 2 solo #1s in less than a year.
|
|
dremolus - solarpunk
Diamond Member
ππ§π€π’ πππ‘ππ¨π©ππ£π π©π€ π©ππ ππππ‘ππ₯π₯ππ£ππ¨, ππ©π€π₯ π©ππ π.π. πππ§ πππ
Joined: August 2019
Posts: 13,311
My Reviews
Pronouns: (he/him/they)
|
Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Mar 31, 2020 12:03:18 GMT -5
Yeah I don't even know why we talk about Drake every week. He hasn't had a #1 in a very long time. I think he's been replaced by Travis who has had 2 solo #1s in less than a year. 1. Because Drake's name grabs headlines and numbers regardless of whether he's the main artist or just a feature, and whenever he is the main artist, it's almost guaranteed to debut in the Top 10. 2. When the hell did Travis replace him? Just because he got two #1s in less than a year? HIGHEST IN THE ROOM couldn't even spend 5 weeks in the Top 10, and Drake had three number one hits in a single chart year. |
|
|
|
Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Mar 31, 2020 12:08:30 GMT -5
Hopefully, If The World Was Ending and City Of Angels debut. Not because they're good song but I just want that Billboard Breakdown critiques haha. Add Maniac to that as well. |
|
For what it is worth, Blinding Lights is on track to be #1 on Radio Songs:
