Billboard Hot 100: 04/11/2020

[iHype.]

Yeah, they should temporarily adjust the formula. If they do research and determine radio listening is down 10, 20, 30%+ etc then the formula should be changed shorthand to reduce radio points for each song by that percentage. 

Literally every car in my neighborhood seems parked everyday, and the roads are empty. There is no way any of these song's are pulling anywhere near their audience. If the Hot 100 is supposed to be based on real consumption in the country, then it makes no sense for sales/streams to take losses and for airplay to just remain the same, especially when it's obvious it likely has the hugest loss among all 3 forms of consumptions.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

[eidde]

crazy how we might get to May without any #1 released in the 2020s yet

[Au$tin]

I mean, sure, a recalibration would be nice, but the priorities simply aren't there to pull that off right now. I'm sure Billboard, Nielsen, and Mediabase are all down in staff like every other business right now and are doing the best they can to even continue pumping out their charts and articles. I'm sure they don't want to waste resources on temporarily adjusting radio points.

People are dying, guys.

[tuna]

Mar 30, 2020 21:20:48 GMT -5 eidde said:

crazy how we might get to May without any #1 released in the 2020s yet

Well, The Box was released during 2020 in the Billboard year

[iHype.]

Mar 30, 2020 21:21:22 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

I mean, sure, a recalibration would be nice, but the priorities simply aren't there to pull that off right now. I'm sure Billboard, Nielsen, and Mediabase are all down in staff like every other business right now and are doing the best they can to even continue pumping out their charts and articles. I'm sure they don't want to waste resources on temporarily adjusting radio points.

People are dying, guys.

As said reducing radio on the Hot 100 formula for a temporary period does not require recalibration.

And tbh they're still producing and compiling charts everyday despite the pandemic so I don't see how it's not a 'priority' to simply tweak a formula that has to do with the work they continue doing daily. 

[Future Captain]

Mar 30, 2020 21:58:00 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Mar 30, 2020 21:21:22 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

I mean, sure, a recalibration would be nice, but the priorities simply aren't there to pull that off right now. I'm sure Billboard, Nielsen, and Mediabase are all down in staff like every other business right now and are doing the best they can to even continue pumping out their charts and articles. I'm sure they don't want to waste resources on temporarily adjusting radio points.

People are dying, guys.

As said reducing radio on the Hot 100 formula for a temporary period does not require recalibration.

And tbh they're still producing and compiling charts everyday despite the pandemic so I don't see how it's not a 'priority' to simply tweak a formula that has to do with the work they continue doing daily. 

because that adjustment would require researching the radio stations through surveys, etc since in the first place there's no way to track how many audiences a certain station got in the real time. There's a reason why even outside a national emergency the audience recalibration was done every few months instead of say, every other week. Of course, there's the option just adjusting formula based on guesstimate but do we really want that? (Then again, knowing some of y'all opinion on radio's contribution to chart points, I'm pretty sure some of you just want radio's point to be cut down just because, pandemic or not)

[iHype.]

Mar 30, 2020 22:09:23 GMT -5 Future Captain said:

Mar 30, 2020 21:58:00 GMT -5 iHype. said:

As said reducing radio on the Hot 100 formula for a temporary period does not require recalibration.

And tbh they're still producing and compiling charts everyday despite the pandemic so I don't see how it's not a 'priority' to simply tweak a formula that has to do with the work they continue doing daily. 

because that adjustment would require researching the radio stations through surveys, etc since in the first place there's no way to track how many audiences a certain station got in the real time. There's a reason why even outside a national emergency the audience recalibration was done every few months instead of say, every other week. Of course, there's the option just adjusting formula based on guesstimate but do we really want that? (Then again, knowing some of y'all opinion on radio's contribution to chart points, I'm pretty sure some of you just want radio's point to be cut down just because, pandemic or not)

Umm how is doing a guestimate when reducing radio not better than continuing to just letting it be wildly overinflated and much more incorrect than any reduction? 

Radio numbers are all guestimates to begin with. There was also no reason to do recalibration every other week when radio listener patterns don't vary that often. This however is a time when radio listener patterns have completely changed, and for many listeners, they have simply completely stopped listening. 

[velaxti]

Mar 30, 2020 18:51:09 GMT -5 fhas said:

Mar 30, 2020 18:08:55 GMT -5 velaxti said:

That doesn't mean the Hot 100 formula needs to be changed, the issue here is that the radio audience figures aren't accurate at the moment, so the blame lies on whatever company is giving Billboard the airplay numbers.

If Nielsen's radio numbers are not accurate and it's not going to be adjusted soon (next week), the best and easiest thing Billboard could do is to adjust the formula.

Yeah, but if they did that they would, firstly, need to do extensive research to get an approximation of how the radio audience has changed (and it could very well be that it's different by format, for example maybe Country and AC stations have been less hard hit than pop and rhythmic stations), and secondly, they would probably need to use a different formula every week if they really wanted to be accurate in this situation. It's not like in normal times when they can assume the radio audience is pretty constant week-by-week. They could just guess of course (e.g. just multiply all the airply figures by 0.6 or something), but we might end up in the opposite situation in a few months where radio audience in reality is increasing sharply but the Hot 100 is still giving it lower points.

Really, I think the solution is that the company giving them airplay figures (which is apparently their own parent company lol) should find a better way to estimate them, which would take into account situations like this. I'm sure there's the technology for this, I see that TV audience figures. It's too late now, but for next time.

[Au$tin]

Mar 30, 2020 22:15:20 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Mar 30, 2020 22:09:23 GMT -5 Future Captain said:

because that adjustment would require researching the radio stations through surveys, etc since in the first place there's no way to track how many audiences a certain station got in the real time. There's a reason why even outside a national emergency the audience recalibration was done every few months instead of say, every other week. Of course, there's the option just adjusting formula based on guesstimate but do we really want that? (Then again, knowing some of y'all opinion on radio's contribution to chart points, I'm pretty sure some of you just want radio's point to be cut down just because, pandemic or not)

Umm how is doing a guestimate when reducing radio not better than continuing to just letting it be wildly overinflated and much more incorrect than any reduction?

Because how are you going to even get any sort of estimate? The new numbers could be just as wildly off as the current ones. Not to mention the numbers are changing drastically every day, so you would need new estimates every week. It's just not feasible.

Radio numbers are all guestimates to begin with.

False. AI is based on rigorous surveying that takes weeks to complete couples with an abundance of statistics and formulas. It's not a simple guesstimate. It's mathematical approximation based on heavy research. That's why even in normal situation it's only adjusted 1-3 times per year.

This however is a time when radio listener patterns have completely changed, and for many listeners, they have simply completely stopped listening. 

Precisely, and they will continue to dramatically change for several months as each state deals with the pandemic at different levels. You could do a quick survey today and the numbers would be drastically different from reality two weeks from now. There's just no point. Especially considering the Hot 100 far from priority for even the music industry right now and will be even less so in the coming weeks. This isn't just some simple issue we're going to bounce back from in a few weeks, this is going to be a tremendous disaster. The industry is currently focused on saving face from cancelled shows, rescheduled promo slots, postponements of albums/singles/music videos, among other things. I highly doubt many industry workers are terribly concerned about the AI numbers of radio contributing to the Hot 100.

Honestly, guys, the Hot 100 may not even update in the near future if things truly get as bad as predicted. Stand back and get some perspective.

[iHype.]

Mar 30, 2020 22:32:48 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Mar 30, 2020 22:15:20 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Umm how is doing a guestimate when reducing radio not better than continuing to just letting it be wildly overinflated and much more incorrect than any reduction?

Because how are you going to even get any sort of estimate? The new numbers could be just as wildly off as the current ones. Not to mention the numbers are changing drastically every day, so you would need new estimates every week. It's just not feasible.

Radio numbers are all guestimates to begin with.

False. AI is based on rigorous surveying that takes weeks to complete couples with an abundance of statistics and formulas. It's not a simple guesstimate. It's mathematical approximation based on heavy research. That's why even in normal situation it's only adjusted 1-3 times per year.

This however is a time when radio listener patterns have completely changed, and for many listeners, they have simply completely stopped listening. 

Precisely, and they will continue to dramatically change for several months as each state deals with the pandemic at different levels. You could do a quick survey today and the numbers would be drastically different from reality two weeks from now. There's just no point. Especially considering the Hot 100 far from priority for even the music industry right now and will be even less so in the coming weeks. This isn't just some simple issue we're going to bounce back from in a few weeks, this is going to be a tremendous disaster. The industry is currently focused on saving face from cancelled shows, rescheduled promo slots, postponements of albums/singles/music videos, among other things. I highly doubt many industry workers are terribly concerned about the AI numbers of radio contributing to the Hot 100.

Honestly, guys, the Hot 100 may not even update in the near future if things truly get as bad as predicted. Stand back and get some perspective.

Gathering an estimate would not be rocket science. You just sound like you specifically don't want anything updated and are coming up with any excuse to not do an update. 

Something along the lines of contacting the panel of people they used for prior radio ratings, and simply asking how many have stopped listening to radio the past week or two altogether (and how many stopped listening more than half the time they usually do) would be getting an estimate of current listening that is more accurate than letting current numbers stand. Gathering a survey of random people and asking how their radio listening has drastically changed and taking that into consideration would be a well done estimate.

And no, nothing is drastically going to change again in 2 weeks. In every state schools are closed, restaurant/bars/theaters/any activity that requires gathering is shut down, and most corporate/retail jobs have sent workers home. This is staying in effect until practically near June at earliest, since things won't be resuming at all in April, and will probably continue to be pushed back to some extent in early May.


Another alternative would be: adjusting streaming/sales in the formula to reflect how dominant they were prior to corona causing decreases, so atleast they aren't unfairly suffering losses while radio is untouched despite more than likely losing even more popularity than sales/streams.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Mar 30, 2020 21:58:00 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Mar 30, 2020 21:21:22 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

I mean, sure, a recalibration would be nice, but the priorities simply aren't there to pull that off right now. I'm sure Billboard, Nielsen, and Mediabase are all down in staff like every other business right now and are doing the best they can to even continue pumping out their charts and articles. I'm sure they don't want to waste resources on temporarily adjusting radio points.

People are dying, guys.

As said reducing radio on the Hot 100 formula for a temporary period does not require recalibration.

And tbh they're still producing and compiling charts everyday despite the pandemic so I don't see how it's not a 'priority' to simply tweak a formula that has to do with the work they continue doing daily. 

There would still need to be research or something to determine how much to tweak the formula without ‘ripping’ anyone off.

[fhas]

Mar 30, 2020 22:24:24 GMT -5 velaxti said:

Mar 30, 2020 18:51:09 GMT -5 fhas said:

If Nielsen's radio numbers are not accurate and it's not going to be adjusted soon (next week), the best and easiest thing Billboard could do is to adjust the formula.

Yeah, but if they did that they would, firstly, need to do extensive research to get an approximation of how the radio audience has changed (and it could very well be that it's different by format, for example maybe Country and AC stations have been less hard hit than pop and rhythmic stations), and secondly, they would probably need to use a different formula every week if they really wanted to be accurate in this situation. It's not like in normal times when they can assume the radio audience is pretty constant week-by-week. They could just guess of course (e.g. just multiply all the airply figures by 0.6 or something), but we might end up in the opposite situation in a few months where radio audience in reality is increasing sharply but the Hot 100 is still giving it lower points.

Really, I think the solution is that the company giving them airplay figures (which is apparently their own parent company lol) should find a better way to estimate them, which would take into account situations like this. I'm sure there's the technology for this, I see that TV audience figures. It's too late now, but for next time.

Billboard uses a targeted ratio for sales, radio and streaming on the Hot 100. That's why they adjust the formula almost every year to increase sales and decrease streaming points. In 2013, it was sales 35-45%, radio 30-40% and streaming 20-30%. This year, it is something like: sales 5-10%, radio 40-45% and streaming 45-55%. If they don't adjust the formula or the audience numbers, the ratio for the next few months will be: sales 4-6%, radio 50-55% and streaming 40-45%. They don't need to research, the only thing they need is to analyze the data from the previous two or three weeks and adjust the formula to have the numbers going back to the targeted ratio.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Mar 30, 2020 22:52:06 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Mar 30, 2020 22:32:48 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Because how are you going to even get any sort of estimate? The new numbers could be just as wildly off as the current ones. Not to mention the numbers are changing drastically every day, so you would need new estimates every week. It's just not feasible.

False. AI is based on rigorous surveying that takes weeks to complete couples with an abundance of statistics and formulas. It's not a simple guesstimate. It's mathematical approximation based on heavy research. That's why even in normal situation it's only adjusted 1-3 times per year.

Precisely, and they will continue to dramatically change for several months as each state deals with the pandemic at different levels. You could do a quick survey today and the numbers would be drastically different from reality two weeks from now. There's just no point. Especially considering the Hot 100 far from priority for even the music industry right now and will be even less so in the coming weeks. This isn't just some simple issue we're going to bounce back from in a few weeks, this is going to be a tremendous disaster. The industry is currently focused on saving face from cancelled shows, rescheduled promo slots, postponements of albums/singles/music videos, among other things. I highly doubt many industry workers are terribly concerned about the AI numbers of radio contributing to the Hot 100.

Honestly, guys, the Hot 100 may not even update in the near future if things truly get as bad as predicted. Stand back and get some perspective.

Gathering an estimate would not be rocket science. You just sound like you specifically don't want anything updated and are coming up with any excuse to not do an update. 

Lol yeah Au$tin, you need to get a life!!1!

[iHype.]

Yet decreasing radio simply 20% or 30% for the time being would be 'insane' and 'nothing to possibly show that's realistic'. 

Metropolitan areas are the ones that have radio stations with the highest ratings/audience too, so I imagine the metropolitan decreases are more inline with radio's decreases. 


Keep in mind this data is from March 14-20. Almost two weeks ago, before more things started being cancelled/closed/lockdown.

[shaz196]

Drake is back

!

http://instagram.com/p/B-YkmtuFfCA

This will be all over tiktok

[jtd Thee Stallion]

Mar 30, 2020 21:20:48 GMT -5 eidde said:

crazy how we might get to May without any #1 released in the 2020s yet

Me thinks you jinxed it lol

[atg]

Mar 30, 2020 20:15:33 GMT -5 atg said:

If that drake song gets released this week than i’m sorry but there’s absolutely zero chance don’t start now goes to number 1 if it doesn’t get it this week

Well now this is true since new drake on thursday and this is already a in my feelings type thing with the tik tok challenge

[kierz7]

Mar 30, 2020 23:10:56 GMT -5 shaz196 said:

Drake is back

!

http://instagr.am/p/B-YkmtuFfCA

This will be all over tiktok

💀

[atg]

Mar 30, 2020 23:20:04 GMT -5 jtd Thee Stallion said:

Mar 30, 2020 21:20:48 GMT -5 eidde said:

crazy how we might get to May without any #1 released in the 2020s yet

Me thinks you jinxed it lol

He def did now

[iHype.]

I don't wanna be certain that Drake single will debut #1. You have to consider the circumstances. Sales are dead, it will have basically minimal airplay first week.

Blinding Lights is doing 30m streams and will have nearly 100m airplay. Drake will need well over 50 million streams first week, with no music video.

Doing over 50 million streams while streaming is down is drastically hard.

[Au$tin]

Mar 30, 2020 22:52:06 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Mar 30, 2020 22:32:48 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Because how are you going to even get any sort of estimate? The new numbers could be just as wildly off as the current ones. Not to mention the numbers are changing drastically every day, so you would need new estimates every week. It's just not feasible.

False. AI is based on rigorous surveying that takes weeks to complete couples with an abundance of statistics and formulas. It's not a simple guesstimate. It's mathematical approximation based on heavy research. That's why even in normal situation it's only adjusted 1-3 times per year.

Precisely, and they will continue to dramatically change for several months as each state deals with the pandemic at different levels. You could do a quick survey today and the numbers would be drastically different from reality two weeks from now. There's just no point. Especially considering the Hot 100 far from priority for even the music industry right now and will be even less so in the coming weeks. This isn't just some simple issue we're going to bounce back from in a few weeks, this is going to be a tremendous disaster. The industry is currently focused on saving face from cancelled shows, rescheduled promo slots, postponements of albums/singles/music videos, among other things. I highly doubt many industry workers are terribly concerned about the AI numbers of radio contributing to the Hot 100.

Honestly, guys, the Hot 100 may not even update in the near future if things truly get as bad as predicted. Stand back and get some perspective.

Gathering an estimate would not be rocket science. You just sound like you specifically don't want anything updated and are coming up with any excuse to not do an update. 

And that right there tells me everything I need to know about where this argument is going. I'm out. Enjoy your warped sense of reality.

[Au$tin]

Mar 30, 2020 23:04:06 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Mar 30, 2020 22:52:06 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Gathering an estimate would not be rocket science. You just sound like you specifically don't want anything updated and are coming up with any excuse to not do an update. 

Lol yeah Au$tin, you need to get a life!!1!

I know, right? How dare I, the guy who literally majored in music business, dare give valid input that we're going to just ignore because it sounds too pessimistic.

Sorry, y'all, that's the state of the world right now. Accept it.

[iHype.]

Mar 30, 2020 23:36:19 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Mar 30, 2020 23:04:06 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Lol yeah Au$tin , you need to get a life!!1!

I know, right? How dare I, the guy who literally majored in music business, dare give valid input that we're going to just ignore because it sounds too pessimistic.

Sorry, y'all, that's the state of the world right now. Accept it.

You were too pessimistic, simply implying there is absolutely no way they can go about evaluating radio at the moment. There is tons of ways, even if not the most practical/ideal to you. Any decrease to radio that isn't absolutely overboard (such as 75% of its points removed, or removing it altogether) would be more realistic to how popularity radio is currently. 20%, 30%, 33%.  

Traffic is likely down near 40% or higher everywhere at this point. There's factual evidence and research behind that. 



Some of y'all (even if it wasn't you) also acting like simply implying that radio listenership is decreasing heavily is something that is 'debatable' is delusional. We all know radio is taking a big loss. I said what I said. 

[failstoner]

I didn't really like all the features he did for the past year or so, but a new big release is super exciting especially during this time

[Au$tin]

If you truly believe it can be done and should be done, then let everyone involved know. Tweet Billboard and Nielsen, email them, bombard them until you get a response.

I can tell you with 100% certainty bitching about it daily in here will do nothing but continue to aggravate the arguments further.

And finally, I said what I said too. I'm out and will not be discussing my opinion on this matter any longer.

[degen]

So do we want Dua Lipa to hit #1 next week, or do we want Radio’s weight to be marginalized and have her miss #1 completely? Getting conflicting stances in here.

[degen]

Mar 30, 2020 23:24:48 GMT -5 iHype. said:

I don't wanna be certain that Drake single will debut #1. You have to consider the circumstances. Sales are dead, it will have basically minimal airplay first week.

Blinding Lights is doing 30m streams and will have nearly 100m airplay. Drake will need well over 50 million streams first week, with no music video.

Doing over 50 million streams while streaming is down is drastically hard.

I’m sorry what? How will this song “have minimal airplay.” This is very on brand Drake and will most likely explode up Rhythmic/Urban/Pop and Hot AC all at once. It can very well rake up north of 50 million at radio just in one week. On top of that it will likely dwarf everything else in streaming, even if streaming is down. The Tik Tok challenges will give it a significant boost. Didn’t “In My Feelings” teach you anything? How about “Gods Plan”? Sounds like a #1 debut to me.

[fridayteenage]

She'll miss even with her currently radio-inflated points

[jdanton2]

4 recent songs were performed on The Voice last night 2 could be in the top 10 while the others are recurrent.itunes updates.

8 +22 Post Malone - Circles

23 +51 Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved

28 +47 Lizzo - Good as Hell

31 +78 Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Señorita