Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Jul 7, 2021 13:41:32 GMT -5
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Jul 7, 2021 14:08:12 GMT -5
Three observations I'm making based off these YE predictions - Peaches will crack the top 10 in the next few weeks
- Butter, Kiss Me More and good 4 u will break in the top 25 next week.
- Blinding Lights is also on pace to pass drivers license to get back into the top 3.
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Jul 7, 2021 14:51:37 GMT -5
Current Top 10 prediction cause why not 1. Levitating 2. Save Your Tears 3. Blinding Lights 4. Mood 5. Drivers License 6. Leave The Door Open 7. Peaches 8. Good 4 U 9. Kiss Me More 10. Butter I think will Butter will fall a bit once PTD drops as Armys will probably focus on that more, while G4U will still be stable across all channels. Still think that Butter will end up around here though
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Jul 7, 2021 16:06:15 GMT -5
Oh, and Leave the Door Open will pass positions.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Jul 7, 2021 16:29:27 GMT -5
So now we have a somewhat clearer picture of what's going to pass the cutoff over the next month now that we have a few more songs in the top 100 with the points and trajectories needed to get there. POV will pass it in 2-3 weeks depending on how fast its radio falls (but should do so just before going properly recurrent), One Too Many will pass it in 3 weeks so long as it doesn't peak before then, and Famous Friends, Glad You Exist, and Lil Bit will all pass it in 4 weeks.
Even with these, I can see the cutoff eventually dipping even lower than 1600. I'd keep an eye on songs that have either already dropped out with 1500+ points (Goosebumps, maybe Damage) or are expected to finish in that area (Settling Down, Gone, Breaking Up Was Easy..., maybe Almost Maybes).
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Post by nathanalbright on Jul 7, 2021 20:10:36 GMT -5
Unless some songs come in big in the second half of the year, this YE is looking like a bloodbath.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Jul 7, 2021 20:21:42 GMT -5
Unless some songs come in big in the second half of the year, this YE is looking like a bloodbath. Oh yeah, the competition for the bottom few spots on the YE is going to be crazy fierce. This reminds me of 2019 where the weekly top 10 was so stable throughout the summer months, with so few big new songs breaking through, that the bottom 10/20 of the YE became an unpredictable mess of rather low-peaking or short-lived songs like Talk You Out Of It, Boyfriend and Robbery sneaking in.
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Post by nathanalbright on Jul 7, 2021 20:28:11 GMT -5
I remember that; this is good news for holdovers from 2020, One Too Many, and Sour album tracks, though .
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Soundcl🕤ck
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Post by Soundcl🕤ck on Jul 7, 2021 20:36:20 GMT -5
Idc, I just want POV and traitor in the top 100.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jul 8, 2021 9:41:51 GMT -5
^POV only needs to hang on to get three decent remaining weeks to before going recurrent. It should manage to do so as long as it doesn't get catastrophic radio losses.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Jul 8, 2021 11:41:10 GMT -5
And as for Traitor, it just needs to stick around on streaming over the next few months and get a proper radio push once Deja Vu and Good 4 U are done for. The fact that it's already charting in the top 50 of Pop with no impact date yet should bode well for its longevity.
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85la
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Post by 85la on Jul 8, 2021 11:47:39 GMT -5
I think a simple solution for Billboard would be to weigh down sales. If I recall correctly sales are weight disproportionately when compared to streaming, so if sales were taken down to count the same amount as streaming it would make chart manipulation via mass buying much less effective, whether from the BTS Army, the Barbs or the Beliebers. Yeah I don't get why Billboard weights Sales higher than Streaming when the latter is the much higher form of consumption. You made a really fair point by saying that Sales should be weighted the same as Streaming, Although personally I would actually prefer it if the Weight of sales was significantly lower then the Weight of streaming. The fact that Sales have become an almost irrelevant form of consumption should mean that it should have been weighted the least of the 3 Components. This isn't in particular a defense of sales or of BTS, but it's important to realize that overall, sales are ALREADY weighed much less than streaming, with airplay being somewhere in the middle. But it is based on an a la carte/points-equivalency system, it isn't capped at any level, so that roughly, for a typical song, and based on current consumption levels for each metric, streaming usually ends up being weighed the most, airplay next, and sales the least. But since no metric is capped at any percentage level, theoretically any song can reach number one based on one metric alone if it is consumed enough in that metric. For instance, a song could easily be #1 if it has either of 1 million weekly sales, 1 billion streams, or 1 billion airplay audience impressions, even if all of those scenarios are highly unlikely. The fact that Butter is remaining at #1 almost exclusively on sales is because the fans have adjusted to the formula and are buying as many copies as needed to reach that threshold - it is an anomalous case, and most songs don't sell nearly that much. If they lower the equivalency weight of sales, they could always just buy more copies to make up for that, unless they lower it to an extreme level, or indeed use a percentage system such that no matter what, sales would always be capped at 10% of a song's chart points. Even though sales are a dying medium, they should have some weight on the chart because they still exist.
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Post by nathanalbright on Jul 8, 2021 22:00:14 GMT -5
I think most of us (myself included) believe that sales should count for something. The problem is that sales should be for people who want to buy a copy of a song one time to listen to themselves, and not buy x number of copies per week in order to game the charts.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Jul 9, 2021 1:36:41 GMT -5
I think Montero can finish top 10 it's having amazing longevity. If the top 10 is 600,000 the songs that can get there look to be
Save Your Tears Leave The Door Open Peaches Montero Kiss Me More Good 4 U
and so along with the four songs already above 600k that seems to be a solid top 10 estimate
both Astronaut In The Ocean and Without You are also contending but they both basically need to still be charting by the end of the year
also can something kill One Too Many please??
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Post by xtynaaguilera99 on Jul 9, 2021 5:34:57 GMT -5
Here’s the January-December YE Top 50 to date, according to my predictions. My base is TOTC’s numbers:
1. LEVITATING - Dua Lipa f/ DaBaby - 622700 2. DRIVERS LICENCE - Olivia Rodrigo - 620500 3. SAVE YOUR TEARS - The Weeknd & Ariana Grande - 567800 4. BLINDING LIGHTS - The Weeknd - 507700 5. MOOD - 24kGoldn f/ iann dior - 493500 6. LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN - Bruno Mars, Anderson .Paak & Silk Sonic - 458800 7. PEACHES - Justin Bieber f/ Daniel Caesar & GIVĒON - 404200 8. UP - Cardi B - 377200 9. WHAT YOU KNOW BOUT LOVE - Pop Smoke - 371800 10. 34+35 - Ariana Grande - 361000
11. ASTRONAUT IN THE OCEAN - Masked Wolf 12. GO CRAZY - Chris Brown & Young Thug 13. WITHOUT YOU - The Kid LAROI 14. POSITIONS - Ariana Grande 15. MONTERO (Call Me By Your Name) - Lil Nas X 16. BEST FRIEND - Saweetie f/ Doja Cat 17. MY EX’S BEST FRIEND - Machine Gun Kelly & blackbear 18. CALLING MY PHONE - Lil Tjay & 6LACK 19. KISS ME MORE - Doja Cat f/ SZA 20. THEREFORE I AM - Billie Eilish
21. FOREVER AFTER ALL - Luke Combs 22. BACK IN BLOOD - Pooh Shiesty f/ Lil Durk 23. BUTTER - BTS 24. ON ME - Lil Baby 25. GOOD 4 U - Olivia Rodrigo 26. BEAT BOX - SpotemGottem 27. DÁKITI - Bad Bunny & Tjay Cortez 28. RAPSTAR - Polo G 29. DEJA VU - Olivia Rodrigo 30. FOR THE NIGHT - Pop Smoke f/ Lil Baby & DaBaby
31. YOU BROKE ME FIRST - Tate McRae 32. GOOD DAYS - SZA 33. HEARTBREAK ANNIVERSARY - GIVĒON 34. YOU’RE MINES STILL - Yung Bleu f/ Drake 35. BEAUTIFUL MISTAKES - Maroon 5 & Megan Thee Stallion 36. THE GOOD ONES - Gabby Barrett 37. HEAT WAVES - Glass Animals 38. WANTS AND NEEDS - Drake f/ Lil Baby 39. STREETS - Doja Cat 40. WHOOPTY - CJ
41. WILLOW - Taylor Swift 42. WHAT’S NEXT - Drake 43. TELEPATÍA - Kali Uchis 44. HOLY - Justin Bieber f/ Chance the Rapper 45. ANYONE - Justin Bieber 46. TIME TODAY - MoneyBagg YO 47. STARTING OVER - Chris Stapleton 48. NO MORE PARTIES - Coi Leray f/ Lil Durk 49. TRACK STAR - Mooski 50. WHAT’S YOUR COUNTRY SONG - Thomas Rhett
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Jul 9, 2021 6:16:48 GMT -5
I think Montero can finish top 10 it's having amazing longevity. If the top 10 is 600,000 the songs that can get there look to be Save Your Tears Leave The Door Open Peaches Montero Kiss Me More Good 4 U and so along with the four songs already above 600k that seems to be a solid top 10 estimate both Astronaut In The Ocean and Without You are also contending but they both basically need to still be charting by the end of the year also can something kill One Too Many please?? my prediction was Montero #11 (I think the radio will drop quicker than we expect, but maybe I'm wrong), with Positions, WY and AITO scattered around the Top 20.
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suzcruz7
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Post by suzcruz7 on Jul 9, 2021 7:30:26 GMT -5
God my worst hits list this year is going to be easily over 50% country.
Starting Over carrying the whole genre in 2021 lol.
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Post by nathanalbright on Jul 9, 2021 7:45:10 GMT -5
Sometimes when I make a list I just have one spot if a particular genre/artist has several choices. That said, at least right now it would be hard for me to find ten songs I have a strong aversion to from the YE if I take out country as a whole. I'll have to ponder how to treat the genre when the YE gets closer.
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Jul 9, 2021 8:17:21 GMT -5
God my worst hits list this year is going to be easily over 50% country. Starting Over carrying the whole genre in 2021 lol. Yeah, Starting Over is the only good country song to come out this year. Well, except for Hell of a View. And Made For You. And Better Together. And Things a Man Oughta Know. And Sand in My Boots. And Settling Down. And Just About Over You. And Hole in the Bottle. And Drunk (And I Don’t Wanna Go Home). And Memory I Don’t Mess With. And...okay so maybe this year is more hit or miss for country than outright crap.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Jul 9, 2021 8:21:45 GMT -5
And Luke Combs is just a joke to the country genre, I guess.
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Jul 9, 2021 8:37:52 GMT -5
Luke Combs is the Ed Sheeran of country music.
Coming from me, that’s a compliment. But it’s also an objective fact. Their appeals are built around their authenticity/relatability. People who don’t like them consider them very “standard/boring,” but they have pretty obvious widespread appeal that leads to being the kings of their respective genres. Their biggest songs are their wedding ballads, but they also have big hits that aren’t about love (for Ed, there’s Don’t, Sing, The A Team, and Castle on the Hill. For Luke, it’s Even Though I’m Leaving, Does to Me, Beer Never Broke My Heart and When it Rains it Pours). Neither are traditionally attractive, but that only adds to their relatability. They both incorporate self deprecation and humility into their public images. The biggest difference is that Luke Combs got his start right as Ed Sheeran’s career was at its peak.
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suzcruz7
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Post by suzcruz7 on Jul 9, 2021 11:04:37 GMT -5
God my worst hits list this year is going to be easily over 50% country. Starting Over carrying the whole genre in 2021 lol. Yeah, Starting Over is the only good country song to come out this year. Well, except for Hell of a View. And Made For You. And Better Together. And Things a Man Oughta Know. And Sand in My Boots. And Settling Down. And Just About Over You. And Hole in the Bottle. And Drunk (And I Don’t Wanna Go Home). And Memory I Don’t Mess With. And...okay so maybe this year is more hit or miss for country than outright crap. I dislike at least half of those songs you just listed but that's just an opinion difference I guess. It's not that there's not more than one good country song that came out this year - sorry if I implied that. I moreso meant a lot of the real bottom tier crap this year is country.
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Jul 9, 2021 13:44:57 GMT -5
Remember when we thought Levitating peaked at #5?
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Jul 9, 2021 14:42:44 GMT -5
For the chart week ending July 10, 2021, here's where I think tracks would rank calendar year-to-date. Not much action at the top. But I hadn't noticed that Ariana Grande has 3 consecutive songs in the top 10!
And now, where I project songs to finish up on the actual year-end, based on a 5% weekly decay in chart points for existing songs. EST Year end | Song | Artist | YE Est Pts | 1 | Levitating | Dua Lipa ft. DaBaby | 10524 | 2 | Blinding Lights | The Weeknd | 8381 | 3 | Mood | 24kGoldn ft. iann dior | 8374 | 4 | Save Your Tears | The Weeknd & Ariana Grande | 8133 | 5 | Drivers License | Olivia Rodrigo | 7296 | 6 | Leave The Door Open | Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak) | 7180 | 7 | Butter | BTS | 7180 | 8 | Peaches | Justin Bieber ft. Daniel Caesar & Giveon | 6342 | 9 | Good 4 U | Olivia Rodrigo | 6336 | 10 | Kiss Me More | Doja Cat ft. SZA | 6072 | 11 | Positions | Ariana Grande | 5621 | 12 | Montero (Call Me By Your Name) | Lil Nas X | 5532 | 13 | Astronaut In The Ocean | Masked Wolf | 5030 | 14 | 34+35 | Ariana Grande | 4985 | 15 | Forever After All | Luke Combs | 4946 | 16 | Go Crazy | Chris Brown & Young Thug | 4925 | 17 | What You Know Bout Love | Pop Smoke | 4842 | 18 | Deja Vu | Olivia Rodrigo | 4794 | 19 | Up | Cardi B | 4419 | 20 | Best Friend | Saweetie ft. Doja Cat | 4408 | 21 | Therefore I Am | Billie Eilish | 4247 | 22 | Dakiti | Bad Bunny & Jhay Cortez | 4182 | 23 | My Ex's Best Friend | Machine Gun Kelly X blackbear | 4083 | 24 | Rapstar | Polo G | 4075 | 25 | Heartbreak Anniversary | Giveon | 3930 | 26 | For The Night | Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby & DaBaby | 3909 | 27 | Beautiful Mistakes | Maroon 5 ft. Megan Thee Stallion | 3875 | 28 | Holy | Justin Bieber ft. Chance The Rapper | 3523 | 29 | Calling My Phone | Lil Tjay ft. 6LACK | 3367 | 30 | You Broke Me First. | Tate McRae | 3329 | 31 | On Me | Lil Baby | 3299 | 32 | I Hope | Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth | 3240 | 33 | Heat Waves | Glass Animals | 3230 | 34 | Wants And Needs | Drake ft. Lil Baby | 3181 | 35 | Back In Blood | Pooh Shiesty ft. Lil Durk | 3137 | 36 | Dynamite | BTS | 3010 | 37 | Laugh Now Cry Later | Drake ft. Lil Durk | 3007 | 38 | Beat Box | SpotemGottem ft. Pooh Shiesty Or DaBaby | 2982 | 39 | Good Days | SZA | 2913 | 40 | Bad Habits | Ed Sheeran | 2905 | 41 | Telepatia | Kali Uchis | 2756 | 42 | Whoopty | CJ | 2749 | 43 | Lemonade | Internet Money & Gunna ft. Don Toliver & NAV | 2709 | 44 | Bang! | AJR | 2667 | 45 | You're Mines Still | Yung Bleu ft. Drake | 2649 | 46 | Without You | The Kid LAROI & Miley Cyrus | 2624 | 47 | Better Together | Luke Combs | 2614 | 48 | Willow | Taylor Swift | 2609 | 49 | Starting Over | Chris Stapleton | 2605 | 50 | Body | Megan Thee Stallion | 2551 | 51 | The Good Ones | Gabby Barrett | 2404 | 52 | Lonely | Justin Bieber & benny blanco | 2350 | 53 | Streets | Doja Cat | 2325 | 54 | Famous Friends | Chris Young + Kane Brown | 2160 | 55 | Anyone | Justin Bieber | 2103 | 56 | What's Next | Drake | 2051 | 57 | Every Chance I Get | DJ Khaled ft. Lil Baby & Lil Durk | 2005 | 58 | Kings & Queens | Ava Max | 2004 | 59 | Time Today | Moneybagg Yo | 1997 | 60 | Lil Bit | Nelly & Florida Georgia Line | 1986 | 61 | What's Your Country Song | Thomas Rhett | 1956 | 62 | pov | Ariana Grande | 1920 | 63 | No More Parties | Coi Leray ft. Lil Durk | 1918 | 64 | All I Want For Christmas Is You | Mariah Carey | 1916 | 65 | Cry Baby | Megan Thee Stallion ft. DaBaby | 1904 | 66 | Thot s**t | Megan Thee Stallion | 1902 | 67 | Track Star | Mooski | 1897 | 68 | Good Time | Niko Moon | 1815 | 69 | Just The Way | Parmalee x Blanco Brown | 1779 | 70 | Throat Baby (Go Baby) | BRS Kash | 1708 | 70 | We're Good | Dua Lipa | 1708 | 72 | Hell Of A View | Eric Church | 1703 | 73 | Put Your Records On | Ritt Momney | 1654 | 74 | Gone | Dierks Bentley | 1648 | 75 | Goosebumps | Travis Scott & HVME | 1635 | 76 | Rockstar | DaBaby ft. Roddy Ricch | 1627 | 77 | Damage | H.E.R. | 1620 | 78 | Before You Go | Lewis Capaldi | 1611 | 79 | You Right | Doja Cat & The Weeknd | 1609 | 80 | WUSYANAME | Tyler, The Creator ft. YoungBoy Never Broke Again & Ty Dolla $ign | 1581 | 81 | Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree | Brenda Lee | 1571 | 82 | More Than My Hometown | Morgan Wallen | 1550 | 83 | Down To One | Luke Bryan | 1497 | 84 | Wasted On You | Morgan Wallen | 1495 | 85 | Yonaguni | Bad Bunny | 1464 | 86 | Breaking Up Was Easy In The 90's | Sam Hunt | 1422 | 87 | Made For You | Jake Owen | 1391 | 88 | Almost Maybes | Jordan Davis | 1352 | 89 | Whats Poppin | Jack Harlow ft. DaBaby, Tory Lanez & Lil Wayne | 1344 | 89 | Savage Love (Laxed - Siren Beat) | Jawsh 685 x Jason Derulo | 1344 | 91 | WAP | Cardi B ft. Megan Thee Stallion | 1331 | 92 | Long Live | Florida Georgia Line | 1302 | 93 | Jingle Bell Rock | Bobby Helms | 1300 | 94 | Traitor | Olivia Rodrigo | 1271 | 95 | Lady | Brett Young | 1271 | 96 | Diamonds | Sam Smith | 1245 | 97 | Glad You Exist | Dan + Shay | 1235 | 98 | Settling Down | Miranda Lambert | 1227 | 99 | Monster | Shawn Mendes & Justin Bieber | 1226 | 100 | One Too Many | Keith Urban Duet With P!nk | 1223 |
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Jul 9, 2021 15:45:18 GMT -5
This is a stressful year because there's so much absolute crap at the bottom that I really hope falls off. Like from songs #63-#69 there are FOUR worst list contenders that we need to kick off the year end (and "Good Time" right above them at #62 but that's a lock unfortunately)
Honestly can we just get someone to drop an entire album that makes the year end like Divide on the 2017 UK charts that would clear all those out
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Post by nathanalbright on Jul 9, 2021 16:14:30 GMT -5
This is a stressful year because there's so much absolute crap at the bottom that I really hope falls off. Like from songs #63-#69 there are FOUR worst list contenders that we need to kick off the year end (and "Good Time" right above them at #62 but that's a lock unfortunately) Honestly can we just get someone to drop an entire album that makes the year end like Divide on the 2017 UK charts that would clear all those out Stream Sour to get the bad taste out of your mouth.
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kcdawg13
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Post by kcdawg13 on Jul 9, 2021 18:50:33 GMT -5
It feels like there's been nothing released this year, most of the years biggest hits are leftovers from last year and most of the new releases just aren't big enough to make enough of an impact. One of the Top 3 biggest hits of the year is the #1 song of 2020, that's how much nothing is going on.
The fact that most of the YE Top 40 thus far is filled with song's that didn't even crack the Top 10, like "Anyone" by Justin Bieber is just below the Top 50, which it'll probably fall pretty far later in the year but that song only had one week in the Top 10 and a bunch in the lower tier of the Hot 100 yet it will potentially finish that high up on the YE list.
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GP
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Post by GP on Jul 9, 2021 19:16:09 GMT -5
It feels like there's been nothing released this year, most of the years biggest hits are leftovers from last year and most of the new releases just aren't big enough to make enough of an impact. One of the Top 3 biggest hits of the year is the #1 song of 2020, that's how much nothing is going on. The fact that most of the YE Top 40 thus far is filled with song's that didn't even crack the Top 10, like "Anyone" by Justin Bieber is just below the Top 50, which it'll probably fall pretty far later in the year but that song only had one week in the Top 10 and a bunch in the lower tier of the Hot 100 yet it will potentially finish that high up on the YE list. funnily enough, 2020 also felt that way. DSN, BL, The Box, Say So, Circles etc were all from 2019. Levitating will become the biggest song released in 2020.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Jul 9, 2021 19:27:30 GMT -5
One big problem is that points are so weak outside of the top 10 right now (and for the past several months) that songs that should be taking only a few weeks to get the top 100 are actually taking much longer to get there. I'm looking at some of the songs that are on the outskirts of making the current top 100 like Every Chance I Get, Wockesha, Ski, Traitor, etc., and while these songs are all pretty stable right now and should be just fine when all is said and done, they're also taking their sweet time to make their mark on the YE and could wind up lower on the final list than expected.
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musicbuff26
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Post by musicbuff26 on Jul 9, 2021 19:48:18 GMT -5
I kind of feel like streaming has a lot to do with this. People are able to listen to whatever they want and it spreads out across way more songs, radio loses its audience and nobody buys music anymore. So, sure, you’ll have a handful of big songs that stand out that a lot of people listen to, but other than that, everyone just listens to the music they like and don’t stray far from that.
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