gikem
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Post by gikem on Aug 2, 2021 20:42:21 GMT -5
Updated Year End Guesses: (Using TOTC prediction) Songs that have not yet crossed the cutoff that I think will: Industry Baby, Stay, Bad Habits, Permission To Dance, Fancy Like, You Right, Every Chance I Get, Leave Before You Love Me, Thot s**t, Lil Bit, Famous Friends (will cross this week), Late At Night, Beggin', Traitor, Yonaguni, Chasing After You, Skate Songs I think could make it but a little less confident on: Ain't s**t, Need To Know, Wockesha, Arcade, Drunk, Essence, Tombstone, Love Again, Goosebumps Songs I currently don't think will make it but definitely could: Motley Crew, Single Saturday Night, Drinkin' Beer Talkin' God Amen, Todo De Ti, Things A Man Oughta Know, You, Country Again, Happier Than Ever Using the 71 already crossed and my top category gives us 88, adding my second category is 96 with the 4 remaining going to songs not released/charted yet, or exchanged for some of the bottom category. Lmk if you disagree with anything! I would move Wockesha up to the first tier, Yonaguni down to the second tier, the first 4 in the third tier up to the second tier, and Essence and Tombstone down to the third tier. I would also add Whole Lotta Money to the second tier and Wild Side and my.life to the third tier. Also, I'm glad you included Goosebumps here, since I'm not counting out the possibility of the cutoff lowering further to 1550. Not that it'll improve the quality of what's already there or anything (and I'm hoping it's not even lower than that to avoid having BUWEIT90s sneak on).
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Aug 3, 2021 9:58:31 GMT -5
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Groovy
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Posts: 6,412
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Post by Groovy on Aug 3, 2021 10:06:25 GMT -5
Some takeaways from this building YE chart. - Save Your Tears should pass drivers license next week.
- Butter should at least be on the outside looking in the top 10 next week
- Settling Down should have an outside chance of making the YE list
- Kiss Me More and good 4 u should also be on the verge of making the top 10 next week
- Every Chance I Get will clinch its spot next week
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Post by xtynaaguilera99 on Aug 3, 2021 10:54:45 GMT -5
JANUARY/DECEMBER YEAR END - Week 32
Green = Top 10 cutoff Yellow = Top 20 cutoff Red = Top 50 cutoff Orange = Top 100 cutoff
1. LEVITATING - Dua Lipa f/ DaBaby - 7327 2. DRIVERS LICENCE - Olivia Rodrigo - 6503 3. SAVE YOUR TEARS - The Weeknd & Ariana Grande - 6486 4. BLINDING LIGHTS - The Weeknd - 5605 5. LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN - Bruno Mars, Anderson .Paak & Silk Sonic - 5353 6. MOOD - 24kGoldn f/ iann dior - 5325 7. PEACHES - Justin Bieber f/ Daniel Caesar & GIVĒON - 4823 8. MONTERO (Call Me By Your Name) - Lil Nas X - 4126 9. ASTRONAUT IN THE OCEAN - Masked Wolf - 4070 10. BUTTER - BTS - 4037
11. KISS ME MORE - Doja Cat f/ SZA - 4024 12. WITHOUT YOU - The Kid LAROI - 4005 13. GOOD 4 U - Olivia Rodrigo - 3946 14. UP - Cardi B - 3772 15. WHAT YOU KNOW BOUT LOVE - Pop Smoke - 3718 16. 34+35 - Ariana Grande - 3610 17. BEST FRIEND - Saweetie f/ Doja Cat - 3605 18. MY EX’S BEST FRIEND - Machine Gun Kelly & blackbear - 3542 19. GO CRAZY - Chris Brown & Young Thug - 3479 20. FOREVER AFTER ALL - Luke Combs - 3392
21. POSITIONS - Ariana Grande - 3375 22. DEJA VU - Olivia Rodrigo - 3356 23. RAPSTAR - Polo G - 3250 24. CALLING MY PHONE - Lil Tjay & 6LACK - 3219 25. HEARTBREAK ANNIVERSARY - GIVĒON - 2940 26. THEREFORE I AM - Billie Eilish - 2930 27. BACK IN BLOOD - Pooh Shiesty f/ Lil Durk - 2799 28. BEAUTIFUL MISTAKES - Maroon 5 & Megan Thee Stallion - 2769 29. ON ME - Lil Baby - 2766 30. BEAT BOX - SpotemGottem - 2693
31. DÁKITI - Bad Bunny & Tjay Cortez - 2683 32. HEAT WAVES - Glass Animals - 2680 33. WANTS AND NEEDS - Drake f/ Lil Baby - 2585 34. FOR THE NIGHT - Pop Smoke f/ Lil Baby & DaBaby - 2537 35. YOU BROKE ME FIRST - Tate McRae - 2500 36. GOOD DAYS - SZA - 2454 37. YOU’RE MINES STILL - Yung Bleu f/ Drake - 2313 38. TELEPATÍA - Kali Uchis - 2308 39. THE GOOD ONES - Gabby Barrett - 2243 40. STREETS - Doja Cat - 2097
41. WHAT’S NEXT - Drake - 2036 42. WHOOPTY - CJ - 2024 43. WILLOW - Taylor Swift - 1994 44. HOLY - Justin Bieber f/ Chance the Rapper - 1875 45. ANYONE - Justin Bieber - 1871 46. TRACK STAR - Mooski - 1866 47. TIME TODAY - MoneyBagg YO - 1856 48. STARTING OVER - Chris Stapleton - 1846 49. NO MORE PARTIES - Coi Leray f/ Lil Durk - 1808 50. GLAD YOU EXIST - Dan + Shay - 1747
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Post by reputainbow on Aug 3, 2021 13:57:10 GMT -5
decided that i'll post my predictions weekly now until the tracking year is over {Week 38}KEY: 1100+: Locked | 1000+: Very Likely/Near Locked | 900+: Likely | 800+: Possibly | 700+: In Consideration
1 Levitating (Dua Lipa/DaBaby) 4978 2 Mood (24Kgoldn/Iann Dior) 4777 3 Blinding Lights (The Weeknd) 4338 4 Drivers License (Olivia Rodrigo) 4018 5 Save Your Tears (The Weeknd/Ariana Grande) 3979 6 Leave the Door Open (Silk Sonic/Bruno Mars/Anderson .Paak) 3326 7 Positions (Ariana Grande) 3133 8 Peaches (Justin Bieber/Giveon/Daniel Caesar) 2839 9 Go Crazy (Chris Brown/Young Thug) 2762 10 34+35 (Ariana Grande) 2743 11 What You Know Bout Love (Pop Smoke) 2511 12 Up (Cardi B) 2508 13 Butter (BTS) 2380 14 My Ex's Best Friend (Machine Gun Kelly/Blackbear) 2336 15 Montero (Call Me By Your Name) (Lil Nas X) 2331 16 Without You (Kid Laroi/Miley Cyrus) 2322 17 Kiss Me More (Doja Cat/SZA) 2260 18 Astronaut In the Ocean (Masked Wolf) 2225 19 Dakiti (Bad Bunny/Jhay Cortez) 2216 20 Therefore I Am (Billie Eilish) 2190 21 Best Friend (Saweetie/Doja Cat) 2146 22 Forever After All (Luke Combs) 2144 23 Good 4 U (Olivia Rodrigo) 2040 24 For the Night (Pop Smoke) 2012 25 Holy (Justin Bieber/Chance the Rapper) 1987 26 RAPSTAR (Polo G) 1891 27 Calling My Phone (Lil Tjay/6LACK) 1890 28 On Me (Lil Baby) 1759 29 Deja Vu (Olivia Rodrigo) 1755 30 You Broke Me First (Tate McRae) 1744 31 Heartbreak Anniversary (Giveon) 1727 32 I Hope (Gabby Barrett/Charlie Puth) 1726 33 Laugh Now Cry Later (Drake/Lil Durk) 1690 34 Dynamite (BTS) 1637 35 Back In Blood (Pooh Shiesty/Lil Durk) 1612 36 Beautiful Mistakes (Maroon 5/Megan Thee Stallion) 1584 37 Beat Box (Spotemgottem) 1547 38 Heat Waves (Glass Animals) 1522 39 Wants and Needs (Drake/Lil Baby) 1503 40 Good Days (SZA) 1499 41 Lemonade (Internet Money/Gunna/Toliver) 1445 42 Willow (Taylor Swift) 1424 43 Bang! (AJR) 1404 44 Starting Over (Chris Stapleton) 1395 45 Whoopty (CJ) 1388 46 You're Mines Still (Yung Bleu/Drake) 1384 47 Telepatía (Kali Uchis) 1367 48 Better Together (Luke Combs) 1344 49 Body (Megan Thee Stallion) 1301 50 The Good Ones (Gabby Barrett) 1249 51 Lonely (Justin Bieber/Benny Blanco) 1235 52 Streets (Doja Cat) 1205 53 What's Next (Drake) 1135 54 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 1129 55 Anyone (Justin Bieber) 1123 56 Time Today (Moneybagg Yo) 1067 57 Kings & Queens (Ava Max) 1044 58 Track Star (Mooski) 1038 59 Cry Baby (Megan Thee Stallion/DaBaby) 1014 60 What's Your Country Song (Thomas Rhett) 1011 61 No More Parties (Coi Leray) 998 62 Every Chance I Get (DJ Khaled/Lil Baby/Lil Durk) 964 63 Good Time (Niko Moon) 945 64 POV (Ariana Grande) 938 65 Just the Way (Parmalee/Blanco Brown) 909 66 We're Good (Dua Lipa) 908 67 Famous Friends (Chris Young/Kane Brown) 907 68 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 907 69 Rockstar (DaBaby/Roddy Ricch) 872 70 Before You Go (Lewis Capaldi) 861 71 Throat Baby (Brs Kash) 853 72 Lil Bit (Nelly/Florida Georgia Line) 840 73 Hell of a View (Eric Church) 828 74 Put Your Records On (Ritt Momney) 824 75 Glad You Exist (Dan + Shay) 823 76 Wockesha (Moneybagg Yo) 817 77 Goosebumps (Travis Scott/HVME) 815 78 Damage (H.E.R.) 805 79 More Than My Hometown (Morgan Wallen) 805 80 Settling Down (Miranda Lambert) 785 81 Breaking Up Was Easy In the 90's (Sam Hunt) 770 82 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 746 83 Gone (Dierks Bentley) 743 84 Down to One (Luke Bryan) 737 85 What's Poppin (Jack Harlow) 734 86 Traitor (Olivia Rodrigo) 727 87 Savage Love (Laxed - Siren Beat) (Jawsh 685/Jason Derulo) 712 88 Made for You (Jake Owen) 711 89 WAP (Cardi B/Megan Thee Stallion) 706 90 Bad Habits (Ed Sheeran) 700 91 Wasted on You (Morgan Wallen) 698 92 One Too Many (Keith Urban/Pink) 673 93 My Life (J. Cole/21 Savage/Morray) 657 94 It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (Andy Williams) 646 95 Ski (Young Stoner Life/Young Thug/Gunna) 642 96 Diamonds (Sam Smith) 640 97 Long Live (Florida Georgia Line) 637 98 Blame It On You (Jason Aldean) 621 99 Almost Maybes (Jordan Davis) 617 100 Tombstone (Rod Wave) 614 103 Yonaguni (Bad Bunny) 578 105 Single Saturday Night (Cole Swindell) 572 106 Thot Shit (Megan Thee Stallion) 563 109 Late at Night (Roddy Ricch) 561 110 Leave Before You Love Me (Marshmello/Jonas Brothers) 554 113 Favorite Crime (Olivia Rodrigo) 546 118 Happier (Olivia Rodrigo) 524 122 Todo de Ti (Rauw Alejandro) 495 124 Stay (Kid Laroi/Justin Bieber) 490 125 Pemission to Dance (BTS) 490 136 Fancy Like (Walker Hayes) 451 137 Straightenin (Migos) 450 139 Brutal (Olivia Rodrigo) 438 142 You Right (Doja Cat/The Weeknd) 424 147 Drinkin' Beer. Talkin' God. Amen. (Chase Rice/Florida Georgia Line) 404 148 Arcade (Duncan Laurence) 394 151 Way Less Sad (AJR) 357 154 Build a Bitch (Bella Poarch) 345 155 Need to Know (Doja Cat) 344 157 Ain't Shit (Doja Cat) 341 165 Hats Off (Lil Baby/Lil Durk/Travis Scott) 310 170 Chasing After You (Ryan Hurd/Maren Morris) 304 171 Things a Man Oughta Know (Lainey Wilson) 304 174 Ball If I Want To (DaBaby) 297 177 Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home) (Elle King/Miranda Lambert) 296 187 Beggin' (Maneskin) 267 195 Country Again (Thomas Rhett) 251 198 Minimum Wage (Blake Shelton) 240 202 Motley Crew (Post Malone) 234 207 You (Regard/Troye Sivan/Tate McRae) 222 208 Whole Lotta Money (BiA/Nicki Minaj) 218 216 AM (Nio Garcia/J Balvin/Bad Bunny) 194 217 Wusyaname (Tyler, the Creator/YoungBoy Never Broke Again/Ty Dolla $ign) 188 221 Industry Baby (Lil Nas X/Jack Harlow) 180 225 Come Through (H.E.R./Chris Brown) 176 226 Red Light Green Light (DaBaby) 174 234 We Didn't Have Much (Justin Moore) 162 235 Waves (Luke Bryan) 161 239 Fiel (Wisin/Jhay Cortez/Los Legendarios) 152 242 Wild Side (Normani/Cardi B) 143 247 Twerkulator (City Girls) 135 250 Essence (Wizkid/Tems) 124 252 Memory (Kane Brown/blackbear) 122 265 NDA (Billie Eilish) 102 274 A-O-K (Tai Verdes) 90 278 If I Didn't Love You (Jason Aldean/Carrie Underwood) 86 318 I Was On a Boat That Day (Old Dominion) 61 321 Not Sober (Kid Laroi/Polo G/Stunna Gambino) 60 325 Don't Go Yet (Camila Cabello) 59 342 Holy Smokes (Trippie Redd/Lil Uzi Vert) 54 350 2055 (Sleepy Hollow) 52 355 My Boy (Elvie Shane) 51 369 You Should Probably Leave (Chris Stapleton) 46 376 Over the Top (Smiley/Drake) 44 390 Love Again (Dua Lipa) 40 411 Cold Beer Calling My Name (Jameson Rodgers/Luke Combs) 36 427 Working (Tate McRae/Khalid) 33 480 Pepas (Farruko) 20 505 Next Girl (Carly Pearce) 16 522 Better Believe (Belly/The Weeknd/Young Thug) 13 530 Lick Back (EST Gee/Future/Young Thug) 12 534 Memory I Don't Mess With (Lee Brice) 11 543 5500 Degrees (EST Gee/Lil Baby/42 Dugg/Rylo Rodriguez) 9 576 Still Chose You (Kid Laroi/Mustard) 1
{Formula #2}1 Levitating (Dua Lipa/DaBaby) 8242 2 Blinding Lights (The Weeknd) 7440 3 Mood (24Kgoldn/Iann Dior) 7383 4 Save Your Tears (The Weeknd/Ariana Grande) 6520 5 Drivers License (Olivia Rodrigo) 5874 6 Positions (Ariana Grande) 5244 7 Leave the Door Open (Silk Sonic/Bruno Mars/Anderson .Paak) 5240 8 Go Crazy (Chris Brown/Young Thug) 4816 9 34+35 (Ariana Grande) 4662 10 Peaches (Justin Bieber/Giveon/Daniel Caesar) 4590 11 What You Know Bout Love (Pop Smoke) 4461.6 12 Without You (Kid Laroi/Miley Cyrus) 4183.8 13 My Ex's Best Friend (Machine Gun Kelly/Blackbear) 4099.4 14 Up (Cardi B) 4055 15 Forever After All (Luke Combs) 4052.6 16 Astronaut In the Ocean (Masked Wolf) 3978 17 Therefore I Am (Billie Eilish) 3967.8 18 Montero (Call Me By Your Name) (Lil Nas X) 3858 19 Dakiti (Bad Bunny/Jhay Cortez) 3835 20 Kiss Me More (Doja Cat/SZA) 3738 21 Best Friend (Saweetie/Doja Cat) 3725 22 For the Night (Pop Smoke) 3635 23 Holy (Justin Bieber/Chance the Rapper) 3396 24 Calling My Phone (Lil Tjay/6LACK) 3367 25 RAPSTAR (Polo G) 3129 26 Good 4 U (Olivia Rodrigo) 3127 27 Deja Vu (Olivia Rodrigo) 3120 28 You Broke Me First (Tate McRae) 3093.6 29 Heartbreak Anniversary (Giveon) 3049.6 30 On Me (Lil Baby) 3031.6 31 I Hope (Gabby Barrett/Charlie Puth) 2994 32 Butter (BTS) 2919 33 Back In Blood (Pooh Shiesty/Lil Durk) 2917.2 34 Laugh Now Cry Later (Drake/Lil Durk) 2878 35 Beat Box (Spotemgottem) 2800.8 36 Heat Waves (Glass Animals) 2796.2 37 Dynamite (BTS) 2792 38 Beautiful Mistakes (Maroon 5/Megan Thee Stallion) 2777.8 39 Good Days (SZA) 2632.8 40 Whoopty (CJ) 2573.8 41 Wants and Needs (Drake/Lil Baby) 2534 42 Lemonade (Internet Money/Gunna/Toliver) 2526 43 You're Mines Still (Yung Bleu/Drake) 2442.8 44 Bang! (AJR) 2440 45 Body (Megan Thee Stallion) 2417.8 46 Starting Over (Chris Stapleton) 2410 47 Better Together (Luke Combs) 2368 48 Willow (Taylor Swift) 2354.4 49 Telepatía (Kali Uchis) 2333.6 50 The Good Ones (Gabby Barrett) 2303.4 51 Lonely (Justin Bieber/Benny Blanco) 2207.8 52 Streets (Doja Cat) 2186.2 53 What's Next (Drake) 2023 54 Anyone (Justin Bieber) 1987.6 55 One Too Many (Keith Urban/Pink) 1965.2 56 Glad You Exist (Dan + Shay) 1931.6 57 What's Your Country Song (Thomas Rhett) 1890.2 58 Track Star (Mooski) 1888.6 59 Time Today (Moneybagg Yo) 1864.4 60 No More Parties (Coi Leray) 1856 61 Kings & Queens (Ava Max) 1838 62 Good Time (Niko Moon) 1836 63 Cry Baby (Megan Thee Stallion/DaBaby) 1826.2 64 Just the Way (Parmalee/Blanco Brown) 1751.2 65 Famous Friends (Chris Young/Kane Brown) 1751 66 Hell of a View (Eric Church) 1744.6 67 POV (Ariana Grande) 1733.8 68 Lil Bit (Nelly/Florida Georgia Line) 1730 69 Throat Baby (Brs Kash) 1709.2 70 Put Your Records On (Ritt Momney) 1693.8 71 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 1647 72 Every Chance I Get (DJ Khaled/Lil Baby/Lil Durk) 1642 73 We're Good (Dua Lipa) 1638.4 74 Goosebumps (Travis Scott/HVME) 1638.2 75 Almost Maybes (Jordan Davis) 1627.2 76 Gone (Dierks Bentley) 1622.4 77 Breaking Up Was Easy In the 90's (Sam Hunt) 1616.8 78 Settling Down (Miranda Lambert) 1614.6 79 Wasted on You (Morgan Wallen) 1608.6 80 Down to One (Luke Bryan) 1587.2 81 Damage (H.E.R.) 1582.8 82 Made for You (Jake Owen) 1576.8 83 Rockstar (DaBaby/Roddy Ricch) 1502 84 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 1491 85 Before You Go (Lewis Capaldi) 1472 86 Tombstone (Rod Wave) 1448 87 More Than My Hometown (Morgan Wallen) 1397 88 Lady (Brett Young) 1395.6 89 Wockesha (Moneybagg Yo) 1391.2 90 Long Live (Florida Georgia Line) 1347.6 91 Quicksand (Morray) 1331.2 92 Tyler Herro (Jack Harlow) 1309.6 93 Ski (Young Stoner Life/Young Thug/Gunna) 1288.8 94 Traitor (Olivia Rodrigo) 1259 95 WAP (Cardi B/Megan Thee Stallion) 1249 96 Hole In the Bottle (Kelsea Ballerini) 1246 97 Savage Love (Laxed - Siren Beat) (Jawsh 685/Jason Derulo) 1245.2 98 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 1245 99 Monster (Shawn Mendes/Justin Bieber) 1240.6 100 What's Poppin (Jack Harlow) 1240 101 Blame It On You (Jason Aldean) 1237.6 107 My Life (J. Cole/21 Savage/Morray) 1199.4 109 Single Saturday Night (Cole Swindell) 1170 110 Bad Habits (Ed Sheeran) 1160 116 Arcade (Duncan Laurence) 1102.4 122 Leave Before You Love Me (Marshmello/Jonas Brothers) 1028.8 124 Favorite Crime (Olivia Rodrigo) 1020.8 125 Yonaguni (Bad Bunny) 1000 126 Thot Shit (Megan Thee Stallion) 1000 127 Happier (Olivia Rodrigo) 999.2 128 Way Less Sad (AJR) 974.4 136 Late at Night (Roddy Ricch) 946 143 Brutal (Olivia Rodrigo) 931.2 144 Straightenin (Migos) 929 145 Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home) (Elle King/Miranda Lambert) 925.6 146 Chasing After You (Ryan Hurd/Maren Morris) 883.2 148 Todo de Ti (Rauw Alejandro) 863 151 Country Again (Thomas Rhett) 840.4 158 Build a Bitch (Bella Poarch) 817.2 159 Fancy Like (Walker Hayes) 803.2 161 Drinkin' Beer. Talkin' God. Amen. (Chase Rice/Florida Georgia Line) 787.2 162 Stay (Kid Laroi/Justin Bieber) 787 163 Things a Man Oughta Know (Lainey Wilson) 784.4 164 Minimum Wage (Blake Shelton) 782.4 166 You Right (Doja Cat/The Weeknd) 776 172 Pemission to Dance (BTS) 712 175 Hats Off (Lil Baby/Lil Durk/Travis Scott) 680.6 183 Need to Know (Doja Cat) 630.6 193 Ain't Shit (Doja Cat) 573 196 Ball If I Want To (DaBaby) 536.6 198 Come Through (H.E.R./Chris Brown) 534.4 201 You (Regard/Troye Sivan/Tate McRae) 522 204 Twerkulator (City Girls) 501.6 210 Beggin' (Maneskin) 474.6 215 Fiel (Wisin/Jhay Cortez/Los Legendarios) 466 219 Wusyaname (Tyler, the Creator/YoungBoy Never Broke Again/Ty Dolla $ign) 442.8 223 We Didn't Have Much (Justin Moore) 424.8 224 Waves (Luke Bryan) 424 227 Motley Crew (Post Malone) 416 230 AM (Nio Garcia/J Balvin/Bad Bunny) 403 233 Red Light Green Light (DaBaby) 385.2 235 Whole Lotta Money (BiA/Nicki Minaj) 378 252 Essence (Wizkid/Tems) 296 255 My Boy (Elvie Shane) 286.8 256 Industry Baby (Lil Nas X/Jack Harlow) 284 260 Working (Tate McRae/Khalid) 272.4 261 A-O-K (Tai Verdes) 268.8 267 Wild Side (Normani/Cardi B) 259 271 I Was On a Boat That Day (Old Dominion) 245.6 272 Memory (Kane Brown/blackbear) 245.2 279 You Should Probably Leave (Chris Stapleton) 233.6 280 NDA (Billie Eilish) 232.4 284 Cold Beer Calling My Name (Jameson Rodgers/Luke Combs) 225.6 318 If I Didn't Love You (Jason Aldean/Carrie Underwood) 160 330 Holy Smokes (Trippie Redd/Lil Uzi Vert) 141.6 334 2055 (Sleepy Hollow) 140 343 Love Again (Dua Lipa) 130.4 355 Next Girl (Carly Pearce) 111.2 366 Not Sober (Kid Laroi/Polo G/Stunna Gambino) 99 367 Don't Go Yet (Camila Cabello) 98 398 Over the Top (Smiley/Drake) 84.4 490 Pepas (Farruko) 65.2 525 Better Believe (Belly/The Weeknd/Young Thug) 59.6 532 Lick Back (EST Gee/Future/Young Thug) 58.8 536 Memory I Don't Mess With (Lee Brice) 58 545 5500 Degrees (EST Gee/Lil Baby/42 Dugg/Rylo Rodriguez) 56.4 576 Still Chose You (Kid Laroi/Mustard) 50
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Post by nathanalbright on Aug 3, 2021 13:59:06 GMT -5
Nice work on having two formulas; it will be interesting to see which is closer.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Aug 3, 2021 15:13:17 GMT -5
Damn Butter might actually finish top 10. It will pass Montero & Without You and probably distance itself far enough from them so that they can't pass it back. Right now I think the top 10 order will be like 1. Levitating 2. Save Your Tears 3. Blinding Lights 4. Good 4 U 5. Mood 6. Leave The Door Open 7. Butter 8. Kiss Me More 9. Peaches 10. Montero
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Post by xtynaaguilera99 on Aug 3, 2021 17:36:39 GMT -5
Damn Butter might actually finish top 10. It will pass Montero & Without You and probably distance itself far enough from them so that they can't pass it back. Right now I think the top 10 order will be like 1. Levitating 2. Save Your Tears 3. Blinding Lights 4. Good 4 U 5. Mood 6. Leave The Door Open 7. Butter 8. Kiss Me More 9. Peaches 10. Montero
Do you think drivers licence will fall out of the top 10?
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Aug 3, 2021 19:34:32 GMT -5
Damn Butter might actually finish top 10. It will pass Montero & Without You and probably distance itself far enough from them so that they can't pass it back. Right now I think the top 10 order will be like 1. Levitating 2. Save Your Tears 3. Blinding Lights 4. Good 4 U 5. Mood 6. Leave The Door Open 7. Butter 8. Kiss Me More 9. Peaches 10. Montero
Do you think drivers licence will fall out of the top 10? Depends on the fate of Butter, Peaches & Montero. If the stans drop Butter or if Peaches or Montero are gone by November then DL will almost certainly take their spot. I think Montero will probably get an album boost at some point though and lock itself, DL’s best bet is to hope Peaches falls quickly or gets album bombed out from the 30’s
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2021 19:55:53 GMT -5
Week 37 & 38pov, Famous Friends, and Every Chance I Get lock for the YE Wants & Needs and Heat Waves make the Top 50 Peaches makes the top 20 Bad Habits, and Blame It On You debut on the predictions Tombstone returns to the top 100 {Spoiler}{Week 38} 4533 Levitating Dua Lipa (DaBaby) 1 4287 Mood 24kGoldn (iann dior) 2 4038 Blinding Lights The Weeknd 3 3634 Save Your Tears The Weeknd 4 3538 Drivers License Olivia Rodrigo 5 Top 10 Cutoff (3000) 2893 Positions Ariana Grande 6 2886 Leave The Door Open Silk Sonic [Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak] 7 2622 Go Crazy Chris Brown (Young Thug) 8 2588 34 + 35 Ariana Grande 9 2521 What You Know Bout Love Pop Smoke 10 2504 Peaches Justin Bieber (Giveon & Daniel Ceasar) 11 Top 20 Cutoff (2500) 2336 My Ex's Best Friend Machine Gun Kelly (Blackbear) 12 2317 Without You The Kid LAROI 13 2263 Up Cardi B 14 2196 Dakiti Bad Bunny (Jhay Cortez) 15 2195 Astronaut In The Ocean Masked Wolf 16 2161 Montero (Call Me By Your Name) Lil Nas X 17 2160 Therefore I Am Billie Eilish 18 2146 Best Friend Saweetie (Doja Cat) 19 2144 Forever After All Luke Combs 20 2050 Kiss Me More Doja Cat (SZA) 21 2022 For The Night Pop Smoke (Lil Baby & DaBaby) 22 1920 Butter BTS 23 1877 Holy Justin Bieber (Chance The Rapper) 24 1855 Calling My Phone Lil Tjay (6LACK) 25 1759 On Me Lil Baby 26 1746 Rapstar Polo G 27 1745 Deja Vu Olivia Rodrigo 28 1744 You Broke Me First. Tate McRae 29 1727 Heartbreak Anniversary Giveon 30 1695 Good 4 U Olivia Rodrigo 31 1661 I Hope Gabby Barrett (Charlie Puth) 32 1612 Back In Blood Pooh Sheisty (Lil Durk) 33 1610 Laugh Now Cry Later Drake (Lil Durk) 34 1602 Dynamite BTS 35 1584 Beautiful Mistakes Maroon 5 (Megan Thee Stallion) 36 1547 Beat Box SpotemGottem 37 1522 Heat Waves Glass Animals 38 1509 Good Days SZA 39 1478 Wants and Needs Drake (Lil Baby) 40 1430 Lemonade Internet Money (Gunna, Don Toliver, & NAV) 41 1404 Bang! AJR 42 Top 50 Cutoff (1400) 1395 Starting Over Chris Stapleton 43 1393 Whoopty CJ 44 1384 You're Mines Still Yung Bleu (Drake) 45 1374 Willow Taylor Swift 46 1367 Telepatia Kali Uchis 47 1344 Better Together Luke Combs 48 1301 Body Megan Thee Stallion 49 1249 The Good Ones Gabby Barrett 50 1235 Lonely Justin Bieber (Benny Blanco) 51 1205 Streets Doja Cat 52 1108 Anyone Justin Bieber 53 1067 Time Today Moneybagg yo 54 1060 What's Next Drake 55 1044 Kings & Queens Ava Max 56 1038 Track Star Mooski 57 1014 Cry Baby Megan Thee Stallion (DaBaby) 58 1011 What's Your Country Song Thomas Rhett 59 998 No More Parties Coi Leray 60 969 All I Want For Christmas Is You Mariah Carey 61 964 Every Chance I Get DJ Khaled (Lil Baby & Lil Durk) 62 945 Good Time Niko Moon 63 938 pov Ariana Grande 64 909 Just The Way Parmalee (Blanco Brown) 65 908 We're Good Dua Lipa 66 907 Famous Friends Chris Young (Kane Brown) 67 Year End Cutoff (900) 872 ROCKSTAR DaBaby (Roddy Ricch) 68 861 Before You Go Lewis Capaldi 69 853 Throat Baby (Go Baby) BRS Kash 70 840 Lil Bit Florida Georgia Line (Nelly) 71 828 Hell Of A View Eric Church 72 824 Put Your Records On Ritt Momney 73 823 Glad You Exist Dan + Shay 74 817 Wockesha Moneybagg yo 75 815 Goosebumps HVME (Travis Scott) 76 807 Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree Brenda Lee 77 805 More Than My Hometown Morgan Wallen 78 805 Damage H.E.R. 79 785 Settling Down Miranda Lambert 80 770 Breaking Up Was Easy In The 90's Sam Hunt 81 743 Gone Dierks Bentley 82 737 Down To One Luke Bryan 83 734 Whats Poppin Jack Harlow (DaBaby, Lil Wayne, & Tory Lanez) 84 727 Traitor Olivia Rodrigo 85 712 Savage Love (Laxed - Siren Beat) Jawsh 685 (Jason Derulo) 86 711 Made For You Jake Owen 87 706 WAP Cardi B (Megan Thee Stallion) 88 698 Wasted On You Morgan Wallen 89 686 Jingle Bell Rock Bobby Helms 90 673 One Too Many Keith Urban (P!nk) 91 642 Ski Young Thug (Gunna) 92 640 Diamonds Sam Smith 93 637 Long Live Florida Georgia Line 94 630 Bad Habits Ed Sheeran 95 627 m y . l i f e J. Cole (21 Savage & Morray) 96 620 Blame It On You Jason Aldean 97 617 Almost Maybes Jordan Davis 98 614 Tombstone Rod Wave 99 606 It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year Andy Williams 100
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Aug 6, 2021 19:30:48 GMT -5
The ol' one-two for the chart week ending Aug 7, 2021: First how I think the current year-end rankings stand: No changes in the top ten this week but look for advances by Leave The Door Open and Peaches next week. And look at One Too Many continue to defy gravity! Over 30 weeks on the chart, never even getting in the top 50, but it could be one more chart week away from locking a spot on the year-end Top 100 (over 1600 points). Can someone explain to me how a song that low, that old, and dropping on the chart is still listed? Is it picking up in one specific area? AOR / MOR ? Country? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? As to how I suspect the year-end will actually look, here's my latest estimate. Based on current week points decreasing an average of 5% each week or until the song falls out of the top 50. EST Year end | Song | Artist | YE Est Pts | 1 | Levitating | Dua Lipa ft. DaBaby | 10962 | 2 | Blinding Lights | The Weeknd | 9163 | 3 | Mood | 24kGoldn ft. iann dior | 8484 | 4 | Butter | BTS | 8289 | 5 | Save Your Tears | The Weeknd & Ariana Grande | 8179 | 6 | Leave The Door Open | Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak) | 6997 | 7 | Drivers License | Olivia Rodrigo | 6936 | 8 | Good 4 U | Olivia Rodrigo | 6488 | 9 | Montero (Call Me By Your Name) | Lil Nas X | 6326 | 10 | Peaches | Justin Bieber ft. Daniel Caesar & Giveon | 6180 | 11 | Kiss Me More | Doja Cat ft. SZA | 5925 | 12 | Without You | The Kid LAROI | 5763 | 13 | Astronaut In The Ocean | Masked Wolf | 5656 | 14 | Positions | Ariana Grande | 5621 | 15 | Deja Vu | Olivia Rodrigo | 5559 | 16 | Forever After All | Luke Combs | 5099 | 17 | 34+35 | Ariana Grande | 4985 | 18 | Go Crazy | Chris Brown & Young Thug | 4925 | 19 | What You Know Bout Love | Pop Smoke | 4842 | 20 | Rapstar | Polo G | 4740 | 21 | Heartbreak Anniversary | Giveon | 4618 | 22 | My Ex's Best Friend | Machine Gun Kelly X blackbear | 4493 | 23 | Up | Cardi B | 4419 | 24 | Best Friend | Saweetie ft. Doja Cat | 4395 | 25 | Therefore I Am | Billie Eilish | 4247 | 26 | Dakiti | Bad Bunny & Jhay Cortez | 4182 | 27 | For The Night | Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby & DaBaby | 3909 | 28 | Beautiful Mistakes | Maroon 5 ft. Megan Thee Stallion | 3846 | 29 | Heat Waves | Glass Animals | 3627 | 30 | Calling My Phone | Lil Tjay ft. 6LACK | 3565 | 31 | Holy | Justin Bieber ft. Chance The Rapper | 3523 | 32 | Industry Baby | Lil Nas X & Jack Harlow | 3403 | 33 | Stay | The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber | 3358 | 34 | You Broke Me First. | Tate McRae | 3329 | 35 | On Me | Lil Baby | 3299 | 36 | Bad Habits | Ed Sheeran | 3252 | 37 | I Hope | Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth | 3240 | 38 | Back In Blood | Pooh Shiesty ft. Lil Durk | 3137 | 39 | Dynamite | BTS | 3010 | 40 | Laugh Now Cry Later | Drake ft. Lil Durk | 3007 | 41 | Beat Box | SpotemGottem ft. Pooh Shiesty Or DaBaby | 2982 | 42 | Telepatia | Kali Uchis | 2978 | 43 | Permission To Dance | BTS | 2918 | 44 | Good Days | SZA | 2913 | 45 | Wants And Needs | Drake ft. Lil Baby | 2831 | 46 | Whoopty | CJ | 2749 | 47 | Lemonade | Internet Money & Gunna ft. Don Toliver & NAV | 2709 | 48 | Bang! | AJR | 2667 | 49 | You're Mines Still | Yung Bleu ft. Drake | 2649 | 50 | Better Together | Luke Combs | 2614 | 51 | Willow | Taylor Swift | 2609 | 52 | Every Chance I Get | DJ Khaled ft. Lil Baby & Lil Durk | 2609 | 53 | Starting Over | Chris Stapleton | 2605 | 54 | Body | Megan Thee Stallion | 2551 | 55 | Lil Bit | Nelly & Florida Georgia Line | 2533 | 56 | The Good Ones | Gabby Barrett | 2404 | 57 | Lonely | Justin Bieber & benny blanco | 2350 | 58 | Streets | Doja Cat | 2325 | 59 | Fancy Like | Walker Hayes | 2280 | 60 | Glad You Exist | Dan + Shay | 2265 | 61 | Famous Friends | Chris Young + Kane Brown | 2200 | 62 | You Right | Doja Cat & The Weeknd | 2122 | 63 | Anyone | Justin Bieber | 2103 | 64 | What's Next | Drake | 2080 | 65 | Kings & Queens | Ava Max | 2004 | 66 | Time Today | Moneybagg Yo | 1997 | 67 | Track Star | Mooski | 1978 | 68 | What's Your Country Song | Thomas Rhett | 1956 | 69 | Single Saturday Night | Cole Swindell | 1939 | 70 | No More Parties | Coi Leray ft. Lil Durk | 1918 | 71 | All I Want For Christmas Is You | Mariah Carey | 1916 | 72 | Cry Baby | Megan Thee Stallion ft. DaBaby | 1904 | 73 | Thot Shit | Megan Thee Stallion | 1889 | 74 | Leave Before You Love Me | Marshmello X Jonas Brothers | 1878 | 75 | Good Time | Niko Moon | 1815 | 76 | pov | Ariana Grande | 1793 | 77 | Just The Way | Parmalee x Blanco Brown | 1779 | 78 | Late At Night | Roddy Ricch | 1731 | 79 | We're Good | Dua Lipa | 1708 | 79 | Throat Baby (Go Baby) | BRS Kash | 1708 | 81 | Hell Of A View | Eric Church | 1703 | 82 | Put Your Records On | Ritt Momney | 1654 | 83 | Goosebumps | Travis Scott & HVME | 1635 | 84 | Rockstar | DaBaby ft. Roddy Ricch | 1627 | 85 | Damage | H.E.R. | 1620 | 86 | Before You Go | Lewis Capaldi | 1611 | 87 | Settling Down | Miranda Lambert | 1585 | 88 | Gone | Dierks Bentley | 1583 | 89 | One Too Many | Keith Urban Duet With P!nk | 1578 | 90 | If I Didn't Love You | Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood | 1572 | 91 | Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree | Brenda Lee | 1571 | 92 | Breaking Up Was Easy In The 90's | Sam Hunt | 1550 | 92 | More Than My Hometown | Morgan Wallen | 1550 | 94 | Wockesha | Moneybagg Yo | 1517 | 95 | Down To One | Luke Bryan | 1497 | 96 | Wasted On You | Morgan Wallen | 1495 | 97 | Made For You | Jake Owen | 1431 | 98 | Traitor | Olivia Rodrigo | 1389 | 99 | Almost Maybes | Jordan Davis | 1352 | 100 | Whats Poppin | Jack Harlow ft. DaBaby, Tory Lanez & Lil Wayne | 1344 | 100 | Savage Love (Laxed - Siren Beat) | Jawsh 685 x Jason Derulo | 1344 |
So to whomever was asking if Driver's License would still be in the top ten at year end the RockGolf magic 8-ball says "Very Likely".
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Clode
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Post by Clode on Aug 6, 2021 19:59:41 GMT -5
rockgolf "One Too Many" has been able to last all of these Weeks on the Hot 100 since it has been gaining consistently on Country Radio and is showing no signs of slowing down, In fact Country Radio is going to be pushing "One Too Many" to #1 there in the coming Weeks and so I expect the Song to Peak in the Top half of the Hot 100.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Aug 6, 2021 20:09:39 GMT -5
rockgolf "One Too Many" has been able to last all of these Weeks on the Hot 100 since it has been gaining consistently on Country Radio and is showing no signs of slowing down, In fact Country Radio is going to be pushing "One Too Many" to #1 there in the coming Weeks and so I expect the Song to Peak in the Top half of the Hot 100. This is way beyond ridiculous at this point. One Too Many ranked dead last on country radio call outs this week: www.mmr247.com/mmrweb/call/callout.asp?Sort=P&Archived=1&FORMAT=C1&SEX=3&AGE=3&GRC=CR&TestDate=8%2F6%2F2021&newPage=Show+ReportIf this isn't blatant payola, I don't know what is. I have never seen any other format pushed a song with the worst call out score for months on end. Country radio needs to let OTM go already.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Aug 6, 2021 20:24:09 GMT -5
FWIW, Keith Urban is hosting Country Countdown USA the weekend of August 21-22, which is usually a sign for country radio to put the artist's promoted song on "max spins" for the upcoming week before dropping it in favor of the next single to come. Thus, I'd expect OTM to make its final exit from the Hot 100 sometime in September.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2021 21:46:55 GMT -5
rockgolf "One Too Many" has been able to last all of these Weeks on the Hot 100 since it has been gaining consistently on Country Radio and is showing no signs of slowing down, In fact Country Radio is going to be pushing "One Too Many" to #1 there in the coming Weeks and so I expect the Song to Peak in the Top half of the Hot 100. This is way beyond ridiculous at this point. One Too Many ranked dead last on country radio call outs this week: www.mmr247.com/mmrweb/call/callout.asp?Sort=P&Archived=1&FORMAT=C1&SEX=3&AGE=3&GRC=CR&TestDate=8%2F6%2F2021&newPage=Show+ReportIf this isn't blatant payola, I don't know what is. I have never seen any other format pushed a song with the worst call out score for months on end. Country radio needs to let OTM go already. Keith Urban is the Adam Levine of Country. He started out good and interesting in the 2000s but gradually became duller and duller over the course of the 2010s, now just being a shell of his former self.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Aug 6, 2021 21:49:32 GMT -5
Keith Urban is the Adam Levine of Country. He started out good and interesting in the 2000s but gradually became duller and duller over the course of the 2010s, now just being a shell of his former self. And he pretty much relies on collaborations with other big-name artists for relevance these days (Carrie Underwood, Julia Michaels, and now P!nk).
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mcsteamy
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Post by mcsteamy on Aug 6, 2021 22:55:05 GMT -5
Any chance blindingights ends up #2 on tbe year end?
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Post by nathanalbright on Aug 6, 2021 23:38:45 GMT -5
I would say the biggest difficulty BL has is that it has so little room to fall before going recurrent.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Aug 7, 2021 0:13:10 GMT -5
Any chance blindingights ends up #2 on tbe year end? It's possible. With drivers license already recurrent and Mood heading there either this or next week, the biggest threat to BL finishing #2 on the Year End is Abel's on Save Your Tears. I think it will depend on whether BL can avoid recurrency for the rest of the charting year. If it does, I think it will have the #2 spot on the Year End over SYT because I don't see SYT holding as well and will be outside the Top 25 by the end of October.
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Post by nathanalbright on Aug 7, 2021 0:14:46 GMT -5
If BL can avoid recurrency for the rest of the charting year!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2021 0:32:34 GMT -5
If BL can avoid recurrency for the rest of the charting year! I don't think it will. We're possibly going to get a slew of albums before the 2022 Grammy cutoff on September 30th, and all it takes is a few Top 25 debuts to knock Blinding Lights of the Hot 100 permanently (unlike the flood of Christmas songs that knocked it off for a week).
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Aug 7, 2021 0:55:36 GMT -5
I’ve been listening to country radio for a long time, and all year, I have never heard any of my country stations play One Too Many even once. I’ve also never gone out of my way to stream it. So...top 100 song of the year my ass
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Aug 7, 2021 8:17:36 GMT -5
When did the tracking year start?
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Aug 7, 2021 8:49:20 GMT -5
The 2021 Billboard tracking year began with the 11/21/2020 chart, which means the tracking year for sales and streams began on 11/6/2020, while the tracking year for radio began on 11/9/2020.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Aug 7, 2021 9:40:38 GMT -5
So based off that, the current top 3 on the building YE chart have a combined five weeks at 1 this year, is there any other where a top 3 has less weeks?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2021 9:55:48 GMT -5
The 2021 Billboard tracking year began with the 11/21/2020 chart, which means the tracking year for sales and streams began on 11/6/2020, while the tracking year for radio began on 11/9/2020. Billboard needs to move their chart year back. There's no good reason their tracking year should start a week after Halloween. If I were them, I'd move it back one week per year until it lines up with the calendar year. We should have nearly five months left in the tracking year, not three.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Aug 7, 2021 14:32:56 GMT -5
I’ve been listening to country radio for a long time, and all year, I have never heard any of my country stations play One Too Many even once. I’ve also never gone out of my way to stream it. So...top 100 song of the year my ass It was somehow #10 on Country airplay last week. So, perhaps your radio stations don't play *Country songs ...
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Aug 7, 2021 21:23:03 GMT -5
I’ve been listening to country radio for a long time, and all year, I have never heard any of my country stations play One Too Many even once. I’ve also never gone out of my way to stream it. So...top 100 song of the year my ass It was somehow #10 on Country airplay last week. So, perhaps your radio stations don't play *Country songs ... This is a result of payola and country music pushing the song for 10 months straight. I have no idea why country music still won’t let it go, especially considering that it is ranked dead last in call out scores. If this song was on any other format, it would have been dropped months ago.
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Post by nathanalbright on Aug 8, 2021 2:03:15 GMT -5
Adult contemporary exists
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Post by kingscouser on Aug 8, 2021 6:16:54 GMT -5
It was somehow #10 on Country airplay last week. So, perhaps your radio stations don't play *Country songs ... This is a result of payola and country music pushing the song for 10 months straight. I have no idea why country music still won’t let it go, especially considering that it is ranked dead last in call out scores. If this song was on any other format, it would have been dropped months ago. Yeah I was thinking that. I was looking at the charts outside the top 10 for the first time in forever and seen "Forever After All" still in the charts after peaking at number 2 behind "positions". Country will push a song for months and months.
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