2021 Billboard Hot 100 Year End Predictions (Year 9)

[mikerivera]

It only gained this week because of the album. It’ll drop again next week, and may or may not chart for one additional week afterwards.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Especially since it has been effectively killed off by radio.

[Groovy]

Dec 9, 2020 11:14:41 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

It only gained this week because of the album. It’ll drop again next week, and may or may not chart for one additional week afterwards.

I completely forgot about that album but who knows. 

[joshtheking]

Dec 9, 2020 10:55:51 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Midnight Sky is so difficult to predict, one week it has a good week and gains and then another it's looking like it's on it's way out.

Its chart run has really been a rollercoaster.

[gikem]

At least Prisoner seems stable at the moment. It would be at #40 without the Christmas music (although that's not counting whatever songs were prematurely knocked into recurrency).

[gs]

TOTC's 2021 Hot 100 Year-End Predictions: Week 4

[Groovy]

Dec 7, 2020 9:51:47 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Songs that I can see repeating

Mood- This is a give me since it's been at 1 for a few weeks and looks to be at 1 for another week this week, it's still has consistent radio and streaming.

I Hope- The radio might be dropping but I think it might be around until radio drops it completely or it falls victim 52/25 rule.

Laugh Now Cry Later- Streaming might be falling but it still has strong radio.

Blinding Lights- Still consistent all around the board.

All I Want for Christmas Is You- Christmas rolls around and this is always a smash hit, strong streaming and sales.

ily (i love you baby)- Good radio

Go Crazy- It has good radio, it has a good chance to re-enter the top 10.

For the Night- Good streaming but that's about it.

Be Like That- Good radio and okay streaming.

Dynamite- Good radio.

Before You Go- Good radio and okay sales.

I'm taking off ily off my list since it looks like it's on it's way out of the Hot 100 and now I'm confident that Life Goes On won't be making the year end. 

[Lost In Musical Reverie]

Goodbye and good riddance to one of my least favourite hit songs of the year. 😄

I've suffered enough last time when both "No Guidance" and "Señorita" repeated while "Lover" and "On Chill" got caught between years, so it's nice to see some improvement, even if "Midnight Sky" is nearly guaranteed to miss at this point 😔

[Groovy]

Dec 11, 2020 10:11:22 GMT -5 Lost In Musical Reverie said:

Goodbye and good riddance to one of my least favourite hit songs of the year. 😄

I've suffered enough last time when both "No Guidance" and "Señorita" repeated while "Lover" and "On Chill" got caught between years, so it's nice to see some improvement, even if "Midnight Sky" is nearly guaranteed to miss at this point 😔

I'm actually one of the few that don't mind it, it's a just a song that's supposed to be relaxing and for me at least, it does that. 

[Groovy]

Once again, some songs that I think can make the year end list. 

Diamonds- Solid sales and good radio. 

Big, Big Plans- Gaining on radio. 

WITHOUT YOU- Great streaming. 

Hawai- This one might be difficult, it's gaining on radio but it fell off hard on streaming. 

Save Your Tears- It's starting to get traction on radio which will ultimately decide its fate. 

Lonely- Gaining on radio. 

[joshtheking]

Here's a list of songs on the charts rn that I ultimately think will appear on the 2021 year end list:
Mood, Positions, Dakiti, Laugh Now Cry Later, Holy, I Hope, Dynamite, Blinding Lights, Lemonade, Body, Go Crazy, For The Night, Kings & Queens, Therefore I Am, 34+35, Levitating, Bang!, Holiday, What You Know Bout Love, Better Together, Diamonds, You Broke Me First, 7 Summers

[sirskimask]

Potential Repeats from the 2020 Year-End List - Week 4 (December 12, 2020)

Very Likely
Mood
All I Want For Christmas Is You*
Laugh Now Cry Later
I Hope
Blinding Lights

Likely
Dynamite
Go Crazy
For the Night

Possible
Savage Love
Be Like That
More Than My Hometown
WAP
ROCKSTAR
WHATS POPPIN(?)

Unlikely
Before You Go
ily
Said Sum
Watermelon Sugar
One Of Them Girls

Very Unlikely

Virtually No Chance

OUT: One Of Them Girls (will not repeat), Come & Go (will not repeat, sadly), Wishing Well (will not repeat, sadly), POPSTAR (will not repeat)

NOTE: 'All I Want For Christmas Is You' has been added because f**k it, even if it's a bit of a special case it's still a potential repeat, so might as well include them all right?

DISCUSSION:
Both of the Juice WRLD singles have sadly made their departure after 20 weeks and will not repeat (this happening the week of his death anniversary, nonetheless). However I'm more than content with the fact that they still made the 2020 YE list. Go Crazy doesn't seem to be going anywhere anytime soon (gained spots even with the Christmas bomb beginning to ramp up), so I bumped it up to the likely tier. I put a question mark next to WHATS POPPIN not because the title of the song is a question, but because I really have no idea what's going to happen with it. Under normal circumstances it should be able to get enough of a boost from the album to stick around just long enough to make it, BUT the Christmas bomb is almost guaranteed to knock it out next week, BUT it very well still has a chance to return after the Christmas songs are gone with the help of year-end countdowns and such. So because of that I decided to keep it in the possible tier because, well, it's pretty much 50/50 the way I see it rn.

[gikem]

^Yeah, it’s an open question as to whether some of these songs will return at all given the album bombs coming. I remember in 2018 as the Christmas songs were invading the Hot 100, Meek Mill and 21 Savage each put out their albums a couple weeks apart and both did significant damage. As a result, no songs returned to the Hot 100 from recurrency post-Christmas. Meanwhile, last year, multiple songs from the 2019 YE like Suge, Baby, Beautiful People, I Don’t Care, Sucker, and Only Human returned to the top 50 because there weren’t any major album bombs to replace them.

[Deleted]

Dec 12, 2020 11:20:01 GMT -5 gikem said:

^Yeah, it’s an open question as to whether some of these songs will return at all given the album bombs coming. I remember in 2018 as the Christmas songs were invading the Hot 100, Meek Mill and 21 Savage each put out their albums a couple weeks apart and both did significant damage. As a result, no songs returned to the Hot 100 from recurrency post-Christmas. Meanwhile, last year, multiple songs from the 2019 YE like Suge, Baby, Beautiful People, I Don’t Care, Sucker, and Only Human returned to the top 50 because there weren’t any major album bombs to replace them.

Well, we're gonna have a Drake album bomb coming in mid-January this time around, so I'm thinking it'll be more like 2018 than 2019.

[alejandropadronv04]

Do you think that Willow will have a better or worse chart run than Cardigan?

[Groovy]

^It's early but if it has a radio presence, it might have a better chance than cardigan

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Another thing that Cardigan didn't have was a performance at the AMAs. I do hope Willow gets performed at the Grammys to give it a better chance of making it.

[gikem]

Dec 14, 2020 17:49:52 GMT -5 alejandropadronv04 said:

Do you think that Willow will have a better or worse chart run than Cardigan?

It's a wait-and-see for me. Right now, I think it'll do better simply because Taylor's team was more focused on making Folklore a critical/GRAMMY darling than pushing singles from it, and it helps that it doesn't have to worry about its chart run getting caught between years like Cardigan did (even though that never ended up being a factor after all). However, if audiences don't respond too well to the muted production after its first week, it will struggle the same way Cardigan did.

[mikerivera]

Personally, I doubt that Taylor or her team are all that concerned with the radio/chart performance anymore. Folklore was as big as it was because the novelty of a Taylor Swift indie folk record. I doubt Evermore is gonna be as big, nor do I think it was intended to be big. Making two surprise indie folk records tells me that this is the direction she wants to head in, and she no longer cares about the mass audience. I said it in the other thread, and I’ll say it again: Taylor Swift is about to become like Beyoncé in terms of not needing the radio or charts to be relevant

[Groovy]

Top 20 without Christmas music

1. Mood- 24KGoldn feat. Iann Dior
2. positions- Ariana Grande
3. Blinding Lights- The Weeknd
4. Laugh Now Cry Later- Drake feat. Lil Durk
5. Holy- Justin Bieber feat. Chance the Rapper
7. Go Crazy- Chris Brown & Young Thug
6. I Hope- Gabby Barrett feat. Charlie Puth
8. Dakiti- Bad Bunny
9. Body- Megan thee Stallion
10. Lemonade- Internet Money & Gunna feat. Nav & Don Toliver
11. For the Night- Pop Smoke feat. Lil Baby & DaBaby
12. Kings & Queens- Ava Max
13. Therefore I Am- Billie Eilish
14. Dynamite- BTS
15. 34+35- Ariana Grande
16. Levitating- Dua Lipa feat. DaBaby
17. Bang!- AJR
18. On Me- Lil Baby
19. Monster- Shawn Mendes & Justin Bieber
20. Errbody- Lil Baby

[rockgolf]

It's only mid-December 2020, and there's a really good chance the #1 song of 2021 is already determined. Seriously.

I would not be surprised if Mood stays atop the Year End list from start to finish. Let's see what happens.

Anyhooo, as of the Dec 19, 2020 chart, here's what I expect the 2021 Year-end list will look like.

[Deleted]

Dec 15, 2020 9:39:30 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Errbody

in the club gettin tipsy

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^^I would think Mood manages to get to 52 weeks in the Hot 100 it could have a good to be in top 5. I don't think it will do as well as Circles did for the 2020 Year-End since Mood had more of its weeks count toward the 2020 one. Also, I get the feeling its streaming is already fading, which will leave radio as the main component that would help its longevity in the Hot 100.

[Lost In Musical Reverie]

^^ Agree. While I get where rockgolf is coming from, it's way too early to tell, especially when the song is already losing some steam.

My bets are probably on an upcoming January/February release, be it a new single from Drake's album, wishful thinking of new Adele or Rihanna music, or perhaps the lead single from Post Malone's upcoming project (I do hope he gets that Year-End #1 eventually!).

Or, of course, we might be in for a surprise - the most likely scenario. 😊

[Deleted]

Dec 15, 2020 16:31:32 GMT -5 Lost In Musical Reverie said:

^^ Agree. While I get where rockgolf is coming from, it's way too early to tell, especially when the song is already losing some steam.

My bets are probably on an upcoming January/February release, be it a new single from Drake's album, wishful thinking of new Adele or Rihanna music, or perhaps the lead single from Post Malone's upcoming project (I do hope he gets that Year-End #1 eventually!).

Or, of course, we might be in for a surprise - the most likely scenario. 😊

I think Mood will probably be somewhere in the Top 15 of the 2021 Year-End, possibly as high as the Top 5 depending on it's longevity, but I don't think it'll be #1. The most likely candidate is probably something from Drake's upcoming album (which will likely be a snoozefest, as per usual for Drake).

[Lost In Musical Reverie]

Dec 15, 2020 16:37:49 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

Dec 15, 2020 16:31:32 GMT -5 Lost In Musical Reverie said:

^^ Agree. While I get where rockgolf is coming from, it's way too early to tell, especially when the song is already losing some steam.

My bets are probably on an upcoming January/February release, be it a new single from Drake's album, wishful thinking of new Adele or Rihanna music, or perhaps the lead single from Post Malone's upcoming project (I do hope he gets that Year-End #1 eventually!).

Or, of course, we might be in for a surprise - the most likely scenario. 😊

I think Mood will probably be somewhere in the Top 15 of the 2021 Year-End, possibly as high as the Top 5 depending on it's longevity, but I don't think it'll be #1. The most likely candidate is probably something from Drake's upcoming album (which will likely be a snoozefest, as per usual for Drake).

If it's the rumoured Bruno Mars/Ariana Grande/Mariah Carey collaboration, I have high hopes. But otherwise, I can either see it being incredibly mid or pretty solid.
Hopefully nothing as lazy as "Toosie Slide", at least.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Bruno has really been quiet for too long ...

[gikem]

Dec 15, 2020 16:37:49 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

Dec 15, 2020 16:31:32 GMT -5 Lost In Musical Reverie said:

^^ Agree. While I get where rockgolf is coming from, it's way too early to tell, especially when the song is already losing some steam.

My bets are probably on an upcoming January/February release, be it a new single from Drake's album, wishful thinking of new Adele or Rihanna music, or perhaps the lead single from Post Malone's upcoming project (I do hope he gets that Year-End #1 eventually!).

Or, of course, we might be in for a surprise - the most likely scenario. 😊

I think Mood will probably be somewhere in the Top 15 of the 2021 Year-End, possibly as high as the Top 5 depending on it's longevity, but I don't think it'll be #1. The most likely candidate is probably something from Drake's upcoming album (which will likely be a snoozefest, as per usual for Drake).

I think it's going to be either that or something that takes the year by storm out of nowhere like Old Town Road did in 2019.

[Lost In Musical Reverie]

^ I know! I miss new music from him (because let's be real, it's best not to acknowledge his 18-19** collaborations, with the possible exception of "BLOW")
I'm so sure that if it wasn't for COVID he would have already started the new era rollout. He loves performing, and it's a huge part of his appeal as an artist, so I'm not surprised if he decided to hold it until it's safe to do so again on a larger scale.


** putting a disclaimer here that I do not count the "Finesse" remix as part of the 18-19 collaborations, since it's still part of the "24K Magic" era.

[gikem]

Might as well add another prediction: Of the two songs from Lil Baby that debuted this week, On Me will be the one to make the 2021 YE. I think Errbody will go the route of Heatin' Up and Grace - might stick around for a little, but ultimately not long or high enough to matter long-term.