2021 Billboard Hot 100 Year End Predictions (Year 9)

[mikerivera]

I know Ed Sheeran is planning to release new music next year too. I doubt it’ll be a year end #1 though, because it sounds like he’s gonna be filling it with mostly lo fi acoustic songs (along the lines of his pre-2014 work).

[mikerivera]

Also, I have a prediction about the strength of the charts. I think most of the major artists are gonna hold off on dropping new music until they get the green light to tour again. Once that happens, I think it’ll be a massive influx of new music one week after the other, with near-weekly album bombs and a gigantic surge in overall chart points. If we’re all lucky, the vaccine will be in wide distribution by the summer.

[Deleted]

Dec 15, 2020 20:15:06 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Also, I have a prediction about the strength of the charts. I think most of the major artists are gonna hold off on dropping new music until they get the green light to tour again. Once that happens, I think it’ll be a massive influx of new music one week after the other, with near-weekly album bombs and a gigantic surge in overall chart points. If we’re all lucky, the vaccine will be in wide distribution by the summer.

That will be the big inflection point for the 2020s when it comes to music IMO. 2021 and 2022 are going to be important years for the direction of music in the coming decade.

[Deleted]

Dec 15, 2020 17:03:50 GMT -5 Lost In Musical Reverie said:

^ I know! I miss new music from him (because let's be real, it's best not to acknowledge his 18-19** collaborations, with the possible exception of "BLOW")
I'm so sure that if it wasn't for COVID he would have already started the new era rollout. He loves performing, and it's a huge part of his appeal as an artist, so I'm not surprised if he decided to hold it until it's safe to do so again on a larger scale.


** putting a disclaimer here that I do not count the "Finesse" remix as part of the 18-19 collaborations, since it's still part of the "24K Magic" era.

I'm just concerned that his next album won't be nearly as successful as his three during the 2010s. He's been gone for a while, and I'm not sure if he can keep any momentum from the 24K Magic era. With that said, I'm looking forward to his inevitable Vegas residency (I'd travel to Vegas for that alone).

[gikem]

Dec 15, 2020 21:40:30 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

Dec 15, 2020 20:15:06 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Also, I have a prediction about the strength of the charts. I think most of the major artists are gonna hold off on dropping new music until they get the green light to tour again. Once that happens, I think it’ll be a massive influx of new music one week after the other, with near-weekly album bombs and a gigantic surge in overall chart points. If we’re all lucky, the vaccine will be in wide distribution by the summer.

That will be the big inflection point for the 2020s when it comes to music IMO. 2021 and 2022 are going to be important years for the direction of music in the coming decade.

I think 2021 is gonna be very transitional as society (hopefully) goes back to normal, pre-pandemic music consumption habits by the end of the year. 2022 will be the one that really defines the direction popular music will go in the 2020s.

[pkwonder]

What’s the latest in the year a song started charting and went on to be #1 YE? What about top 5 or 10 YE?

[Groovy]

Artists I would love to see release a new album in 2021-22

• Kendrick Lamar
• Adele
• Rihanna
• Bruno Mars
• Ed Sheeran
• Lorde
• Travis Scott
• Post Malone
• Migos
• Cardi B

Hopefully 2021 is an interesting year. 

[atg]

Dec 15, 2020 16:31:32 GMT -5 Lost In Musical Reverie said:

^^ Agree. While I get where rockgolf is coming from, it's way too early to tell, especially when the song is already losing some steam.

My bets are probably on an upcoming January/February release, be it a new single from Drake's album, wishful thinking of new Adele or Rihanna music, or perhaps the lead single from Post Malone's upcoming project (I do hope he gets that Year-End #1 eventually!).

Or, of course, we might be in for a surprise - the most likely scenario. 😊

It could either go the blinding lights/uptown funk, god’s plan/shape of you (usually), or even an old town road. It’s still too early to determine a #1 right now just like how around this time last year, our #1 of 2020 was flopping

One person i do feel bad for though is post malone. This man got blocked off the #1 YE spot twice but at least if it had to be that way, the songs that did block him are all time classics

[mikerivera]

Dec 15, 2020 22:38:55 GMT -5 pkwonder said:

What’s the latest in the year a song started charting and went on to be #1 YE? What about top 5 or 10 YE?

Off the top of my head, I would think Candle in the Wind in 1997.

[kingvavis]

I wonder if we will ever get a song as massive as Shape of You which was not tied to a meme or a viral trend. Blinding Lights comes close.

[iHype.]

Dec 16, 2020 0:22:39 GMT -5 kingvavis said:

I wonder if we will ever get a song as massive as Shape of You which was not tied to a meme or a viral trend. Blinding Lights comes close.

Ofcourse it's bound to happen. There will always be bigger and bigger songs that come along, especially as long as the world population continues to grow and everything becomes more globalized in theory.

[kingvavis]

Dec 16, 2020 0:24:34 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Dec 16, 2020 0:22:39 GMT -5 kingvavis said:

I wonder if we will ever get a song as massive as Shape of You which was not tied to a meme or a viral trend. Blinding Lights comes close.

Ofcourse it's bound to happen. There will always be bigger and bigger songs that come along, especially as long as the world population continues to grow and everything becomes more globalized in theory.

I meant within the United States, specifically a song that is huge without the heavy reliance of a meme, challenge, or controversy. It feels like most of the huge hits since 2018 in the US have relied heavily on those components. I maybe wrong but I don't remember Shape of You relying heavily on memes or controversies for its success.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Ok Lemonade has grown on me A LOT, it's now in contention for best hits of the year

[iHype.]

Dec 16, 2020 0:50:23 GMT -5 kingvavis said:

Dec 16, 2020 0:24:34 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Ofcourse it's bound to happen. There will always be bigger and bigger songs that come along, especially as long as the world population continues to grow and everything becomes more globalized in theory.

I meant within the United States, specifically a song that is huge without the heavy reliance of a meme, challenge, or controversy. It feels like most of the huge hits since 2018 in the US have relied heavily on those components. I maybe wrong but I don't remember Shape of You relying heavily on memes or controversies for its success.

If we're basing on units - Sunflower? Already Diamond also. If we're basing on chart run - Blinding Lights has passed it. As far as Year-End points, the average #1 song every year since 2017 has done 1.3m+ points so it's certainly not hard to believe we will see a song reach SOY's 1.6m+ points again without memes/controversy. 

The answer still stands that we will very likely see more songs as big.

[lazer]

I think in 2021, we will see signs of what the 2020s in music will be defined as.

[mikerivera]

Dec 16, 2020 0:22:39 GMT -5 kingvavis said:

I wonder if we will ever get a song as massive as Shape of You which was not tied to a meme or a viral trend. Blinding Lights comes close.

Depends on if you mean via real points or chart run. For chart run, it’s already been passed by Blinding Lights and Circles. If you mean point total, that will be really tough. Shape of You has almost 1.9m points, which is the second most all time behind Uptown Funk. Even Old Town Road couldn’t pass it, and that was with it being a lightning in a bottle viral trend. But I’m sure that at some point, a “regular” song will at least get close to it, provided Billboard doesn’t significantly change the formula. That said, by the time that song does come along, I imagine it’ll have to be hyper-dominant in streaming, because sales and radio won’t hold as much power as they did in 2017.

[Lost In Musical Reverie]

Dec 16, 2020 0:22:39 GMT -5 kingvavis said:

I wonder if we will ever get a song as massive as Shape of You which was not tied to a meme or a viral trend. Blinding Lights comes close.

Do correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think "Despacito" was tied to any meme or viral trend, right? Otherwise, yeah, "Sunflower" and "Blinding Lights" come to mind.
And while these haven't made the GOAT list, I think "thank u, next", "The Box", and "ROCKSTAR" genuinely felt huge at their peak, with just minor influence from memes and TikTok. "WAP" was quite the phenomenon too, though it was tied to controversy.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Dec 16, 2020 1:59:55 GMT -5 lazer said:

I think in 2021, we will see signs of what the 2020s in music will be defined as.

Yeah this year is where we'll start to see the trends that define the 2020s. I think acts like Billie Eilish and platforms like TikTok will remain important but now is the year we'll see what seeds are planted

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Dec 16, 2020 4:56:12 GMT -5 Lost In Musical Reverie said:

Dec 16, 2020 0:22:39 GMT -5 kingvavis said:

I wonder if we will ever get a song as massive as Shape of You which was not tied to a meme or a viral trend. Blinding Lights comes close.

Do correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think "Despacito" was tied to any meme or viral trend, right? Otherwise, yeah, "Sunflower" and "Blinding Lights" come to mind.
And while these haven't made the GOAT list, I think "thank u, next", "The Box", and "ROCKSTAR" genuinely felt huge at their peak, with just minor influence from memes and TikTok. "WAP" was quite the phenomenon too, though it was tied to controversy.

Despacito really took off when the Justin Bieber remix appeared. The only place where it didn't help much was YouTube but it helped in all other streaming, radio and sales.

[Henry Suárez]

Dec 16, 2020 1:59:55 GMT -5 lazer said:

I think in 2021, we will see signs of what the 2020s in music will be defined as.

Why? I feel like it's in the 2 or 3 of the decade when that happens.

In the 90's, 1990 and 1991 felt like they were still the mid to late 80s, it was 1992/1993 when the decade started to be defined.

I think 2000 and 2001 the same.

and 2010s started with the dance pop, electro pop craze, carried from the late 00s, until 2012 when things started to settle down. (interestingly when on-demand, streaming started to grow)

I feel like 2021 will be similar to 2020 and 2019/2018, Idk.

[Groovy]

2020 felt like a transition, we get away from most of the trap and moved more to disco/synth pop music.

[Deleted]

Dec 16, 2020 13:52:32 GMT -5 Henry Suárez said:

Dec 16, 2020 1:59:55 GMT -5 lazer said:

I think in 2021, we will see signs of what the 2020s in music will be defined as.

Why? I feel like it's in the 2 or 3 of the decade when that happens.

In the 90's, 1990 and 1991 felt like they were still the mid to late 80s, it was 1992/1993 when the decade started to be defined.

I think 2000 and 2001 the same.

and 2010s started with the dance pop, electro pop craze, carried from the late 00s, until 2012 when things started to settle down. (interestingly when on-demand, streaming started to grow)

I feel like 2021 will be similar to 2020 and 2019/2018, Idk.

I'm sure that there'll be some meme in the future that says that the 2010s didn't start until 2013.

[lazer]

Dec 16, 2020 13:52:32 GMT -5 Henry Suárez said:

Dec 16, 2020 1:59:55 GMT -5 lazer said:

I think in 2021, we will see signs of what the 2020s in music will be defined as.

Why? I feel like it's in the 2 or 3 of the decade when that happens.

In the 90's, 1990 and 1991 felt like they were still the mid to late 80s, it was 1992/1993 when the decade started to be defined.

I think 2000 and 2001 the same.

and 2010s started with the dance pop, electro pop craze, carried from the late 00s, until 2012 when things started to settle down. (interestingly when on-demand, streaming started to grow)

I feel like 2021 will be similar to 2020 and 2019/2018, Idk.

1990 and 1991 felt similar to the late 80s but not really the mid 80s when synthpop/new wave was still popular. Important grunge albums came out in 1991, so the 90s didn't start in 1992.

2000 or 2001 felt similar to 98/99 but not the rest of the 90s. 2001 had sounds that carried into as late as 2004/05, so I think the 2000s started right on time.

I think the 2010s started right on time as well. You didn't have Drake, Bruno Mars, or Justin Bieber and the electropop craze in 2008 and before, which was still dominated by R&B, rock, and Hip Hop. 2011 felt like music was already in the 2010s.

[mikerivera]

I feel like the last decade was just a bunch of different eras. First, you had 2010-2012, which was part of the club boom that started in 2008. Then came the indie pop and EDM era in 2012-2014, bro country lasting from 2012-2017, the 80s revival of 2014/2015, the tropical house era of 2016/2017, the trap era of 2016-2019, the reaction against bro country (boyfriend country and neo-traditional country that started in 2017), and by the end of 2019, it was the “whatever the f*ck we feel like” era.

Compare that to the 2000s, when the decade was defined by just a few trends (rap transitioned from gangsta to crunk to club, with some ringtone rap, pop became brighter and more vibrant, rock died as post grunge killed it, and country tried to blend in with easy-listening adult contemporary).

I have no idea what this decade will look like, other than rap probably continues to be defined by low key trap. The 80s/disco revival won’t last forever. I imagine that pop will keep trying to “sound big,” but I can’t predict what that will look like. Country will get a reaction against the boyfriends at some point. If I had to guess, I’d say drawing on outlaw country makes the most sense, in a similar vein to Old Town Road and God’s Country. I could see outlaw songs having the same appeal as most rap songs, assuming they’re easier to take seriously than either of the two songs I just listed.

[Henry Suárez]

Dec 16, 2020 14:51:10 GMT -5 lazer said:

Dec 16, 2020 13:52:32 GMT -5 Henry Suárez said:

Why? I feel like it's in the 2 or 3 of the decade when that happens.

In the 90's, 1990 and 1991 felt like they were still the mid to late 80s, it was 1992/1993 when the decade started to be defined.

I think 2000 and 2001 the same.

and 2010s started with the dance pop, electro pop craze, carried from the late 00s, until 2012 when things started to settle down. (interestingly when on-demand, streaming started to grow)

I feel like 2021 will be similar to 2020 and 2019/2018, Idk.

1990 and 1991 felt similar to the late 80s but not really the mid 80s when synthpop/new wave was still popular. Important grunge albums came out in 1991, so the 90s didn't start in 1992.

2000 or 2001 felt similar to 98/99 but not the rest of the 90s. 2001 had sounds that carried into as late as 2004/05, so I think the 2000s started right on time.

I think the 2010s started right on time as well. You didn't have Drake, Bruno Mars, or Justin Bieber and the electropop craze in 2008 and before, which was still dominated by R&B, rock, and Hip Hop. 2011 felt like music was already in the 2010s.

Ok 1990/1991 felt more like the late 80s than to mid 80s but we're talking about overall trends or radio/Hot 100 in terms of what people listened the most? Grunge was definitely huge but mostly in album.

The overall sound of 1991 was very late 80s still popradiotop20.com/Year/RR-CHR-1991-Year.htm Grunge was huge in album terms but didn't dominate airwaves, hell it didn't even fully dominate the alternative airplay until 1994, you can see that on the format.

Well, the 90s had various eras, the women or lilith flower in the mid 90s example Alanis, Jewel, Melissa, Sheryl, Natalie and then the bubblegum pop with the Spice Girls, N Sync, Backstreet Boys, Britney, Christina and a ton others.

I fully disagree that 2011 was already the sound defining the 10s decade popradiotop20.com/Year/MB-POP-2011.htm just noo, overall it still sounded very 2008/2009 to me even with Adele in there.

It was 2012 when acts like fun., Gotye, Carly, the brief return of boybands with One Direction/The Wanted when things started to move on, altough electro pop was still dominant, in 2013 and 2014 the streaming boom begins (with EDM mixing in there).

[lazer]

Dec 16, 2020 15:09:12 GMT -5 Henry Suárez said:

Dec 16, 2020 14:51:10 GMT -5 lazer said:

1990 and 1991 felt similar to the late 80s but not really the mid 80s when synthpop/new wave was still popular. Important grunge albums came out in 1991, so the 90s didn't start in 1992.

2000 or 2001 felt similar to 98/99 but not the rest of the 90s. 2001 had sounds that carried into as late as 2004/05, so I think the 2000s started right on time.

I think the 2010s started right on time as well. You didn't have Drake, Bruno Mars, or Justin Bieber and the electropop craze in 2008 and before, which was still dominated by R&B, rock, and Hip Hop. 2011 felt like music was already in the 2010s.

Ok 1990/1991 felt more like the late 80s than to mid 80s but we're talking about overall trends or radio/Hot 100 in terms of what people listened the most? Grunge was definitely huge but mostly in album.

The overall sound of 1991 was very late 80s still popradiotop20.com/Year/RR-CHR-1991-Year.htm Grunge was huge in album terms but didn't dominate airwaves, hell it didn't even fully dominate the alternative airplay until 1994, you can see that on the format.

Well, the 90s had various eras, the women or lilith flower in the mid 90s example Alanis, Jewel, Melissa, Sheryl, Natalie and then the bubblegum pop with the Spice Girls, N Sync, Backstreet Boys, Britney, Christina and a ton others.

I fully disagree that 2011 was already the sound defining the 10s decade popradiotop20.com/Year/MB-POP-2011.htm just noo, overall it still sounded very 2008/2009 to me even with Adele in there.

It was 2012 when acts like fun., Gotye, Carly, the brief return of boybands with One Direction/The Wanted that things started to get more "diverse" altough electro pop was still dominant. 2013 and 2014 with the streaming boom (and EDM mixing in there) is when things started to move on.

2011 was really not the same as 2008. Look at the top songs played in 2008 in this list popradiotop20.com/Year/MB-POP-2008.htm. It's dominated by R&B, hip hop, and rock. The transition was felt more in 2009 when Lady Gaga came into the scene. Even the dance songs such as Forever and Don't Stop The Music have a different tone and production styles compared to the bombastic and festival-like electropop of 2011. Also, there were still electropop songs in 2013. 

[alexandria2001]

I feel like 2019 was a transition in a way. 2018 mostly had Trap Rap with little amount of pop hits (to the point where people thought pop was dying.) Even though 2019 still had a bunch of Trap Rap hits, it felt like the general atmosphere was brighter that year than it was in 2018. Pop music came back really bright and upbeat (in terms of production, a lot more so than lyric-wise) ("Sweet But Psycho" "If I Can't Have You" "I Don't Care" "Hey Look Ma I Made It" "Senorita" "Beautiful People" "Circles" "Good As Hell" were some huge hits with a brighter sound.) Trap Rap was still dominant but it's sound was not generally as dark as it was in 2018. Some songs like "Ransom" had brighter instrumentation.

There were still some darker songs, of course, like "bury a friend" "Murder On My Mind" "Goodbyes" etc. But there was definitely some sort of uptick in bright/upbeat hits in 2019, opposing the darker and monogenre hit songs atmosphere of 2016-2018. There was even an article from a couple months ago stating popular music in 2019 had become brighter/more upbeat than it had been since after 2010.

Of course, it continued through 2020 with "Don't Start Now" "Blinding Lights" "Say So" "Come & Go" "Wishing Well" "Mood" etc. Although it wasn't quite as bright/upbeat as 2019 was but there was still the idea of popular music not fitting the social/political climate of 2020 (in fact sounding quite the opposite.)

So whatever happened in 2019 appears to be a lasting trend, at least into this year, especially since it took Retro Pop up right with it in 2020, giving Retro Pop it's most successful year since 2015.

I don't think it will be the sound of the 2020s though, especially since a lot of it was either Trap inspired or Retro inspired. The 2020s will have it's own distinct sound. It could be more or less upbeat. But the darker sounds will probably still be big for another couple years, as Billie Eilish has more hits in her. Also, the darker sounding side of Trap Rap isn't quite gone either. I think It'll stay for a bit longer too.

We still have yet to know what the sound of the 2020s will be. We're only one year through it so we won't know for sure quite yet.

[GP]

Dec 15, 2020 20:06:18 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

I know Ed Sheeran is planning to release new music next year too. I doubt it’ll be a year end #1 though, because it sounds like he’s gonna be filling it with mostly lo fi acoustic songs (along the lines of his pre-2014 work).

Wasn't he retiring?

[mikerivera]

Dec 16, 2020 19:25:10 GMT -5 GP said:

Dec 15, 2020 20:06:18 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

I know Ed Sheeran is planning to release new music next year too. I doubt it’ll be a year end #1 though, because it sounds like he’s gonna be filling it with mostly lo fi acoustic songs (along the lines of his pre-2014 work).

Wasn't he retiring?

No? He was just taking the year off, similar to how he took 2016 off (and if there was ever a good year to take off, it was definitely 2020). He’s been writing songs for this new album ever since 2011.

[Deleted]

Dec 16, 2020 20:51:44 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Dec 16, 2020 19:25:10 GMT -5 GP said:

Wasn't he retiring?

No? He was just taking the year off, similar to how he took 2016 off (and if there was ever a good year to take off, it was definitely 2020). He’s been writing songs for this new album ever since 2011.

Why would he save songs for an entire decade?