2021 Billboard Hot 100 Year End Predictions (Year 9)
Nov 24, 2021 22:02:31 GMT -5
Post by mikerivera on Nov 24, 2021 22:02:31 GMT -5
Ranking songs in order of likeliness to make the J-D list that haven’t locked yet
1. All I Want For Christmas is You. It’s made the last two lists, and gathered 67k points in the first two issues of the 2021 dated charts. With a week head start on the competition, it will probably have another great run in December.
2. Cold Heart. It’s got about 120k right now, and is rising up the charts. Should be able to hold up against the avalanche of Christmas songs, with a projection of 184k at its current rate. Set to be a big hit in 2022, assuming Dua Lipa’s current career trends continue.
3. Rockin Around the Christmas Tree. May not be as big as last year, but got about 62k from the first two weeks of January. That should give it enough firepower to squeeze onto a second list.
4. My Universe. Currently has 127k. On the decline, but still in the top 40. It doesn’t have to worry about going recurrent during the Christmas weeks, so the question will be sustainability. Current projection is 166k, but it does have collapse potential.
5. Wild Side. Currently at 144k. It has been very stable in the 40-60 range since September, which bodes well since it has 2 weeks before it goes recurrent, and absolutely will be taken out by the Christmas songs. Current projection of 159k.
6. Sand in My Boots. Has 18 weeks on the chart, but it just recently started being promoted to radio. It’s slowly rising up the charts, and Billboard will likely allow it to dodge the recurrent rules. So the question becomes if it can keep gaining points against the onslaught of Christmas songs. Current projection 156k.
7. Cold As You. Currently has 113k. Recently hit a new peak, but I doubt it goes any higher. Has 4 weeks left, and should be able to chart the entire month. The question is how quickly Nashville will pull its support, and thus how quickly it’ll decline. Current projection 155k.
8. Meet Me At Our Spot. Has 96k at the moment. Continuing to rise up the charts, and expected to be a massive hit in 2022. Sadly, it looks like the song caught fire too late to make this list. Projected to finish at 146k.
9. That’s What I Want. Current total is 104k. It peaked in its first week, and has been on the decline since then as Industry Baby has taken most of the oxygen. On the plus side, its decline has been slow, and it’s still in the top 40. Will be difficult to hold up over the Christmas songs, on top of coming out very late in the year. Projected finish is 144k.
10. You Should Probably Leave. At 133k, it’s the closest song to making that’s currently charting (aside from Wild Side and Fair Trade). However, it just hit its 20th week, and looks like it’s already peaked. I don’t expect it to last much longer, especially with it sitting outside the top 40.
Projected top 20:
1. Levitating
2. Save Your Tears
3. Good 4 U
4. Kiss Me More
5. Leave the Door Open
6. Stay
7. Driver’s License
8. Montero
9. Blinding Lights
10. Peaches
11. Butter
12. Bad Habits
13. Mood
14. Heat Waves
15. Industry Baby
16. Deja Vu
17. Fancy Like
18. Astronaut in the Ocean
19. Without You
20. Forever After All
1. All I Want For Christmas is You. It’s made the last two lists, and gathered 67k points in the first two issues of the 2021 dated charts. With a week head start on the competition, it will probably have another great run in December.
2. Cold Heart. It’s got about 120k right now, and is rising up the charts. Should be able to hold up against the avalanche of Christmas songs, with a projection of 184k at its current rate. Set to be a big hit in 2022, assuming Dua Lipa’s current career trends continue.
3. Rockin Around the Christmas Tree. May not be as big as last year, but got about 62k from the first two weeks of January. That should give it enough firepower to squeeze onto a second list.
4. My Universe. Currently has 127k. On the decline, but still in the top 40. It doesn’t have to worry about going recurrent during the Christmas weeks, so the question will be sustainability. Current projection is 166k, but it does have collapse potential.
5. Wild Side. Currently at 144k. It has been very stable in the 40-60 range since September, which bodes well since it has 2 weeks before it goes recurrent, and absolutely will be taken out by the Christmas songs. Current projection of 159k.
6. Sand in My Boots. Has 18 weeks on the chart, but it just recently started being promoted to radio. It’s slowly rising up the charts, and Billboard will likely allow it to dodge the recurrent rules. So the question becomes if it can keep gaining points against the onslaught of Christmas songs. Current projection 156k.
7. Cold As You. Currently has 113k. Recently hit a new peak, but I doubt it goes any higher. Has 4 weeks left, and should be able to chart the entire month. The question is how quickly Nashville will pull its support, and thus how quickly it’ll decline. Current projection 155k.
8. Meet Me At Our Spot. Has 96k at the moment. Continuing to rise up the charts, and expected to be a massive hit in 2022. Sadly, it looks like the song caught fire too late to make this list. Projected to finish at 146k.
9. That’s What I Want. Current total is 104k. It peaked in its first week, and has been on the decline since then as Industry Baby has taken most of the oxygen. On the plus side, its decline has been slow, and it’s still in the top 40. Will be difficult to hold up over the Christmas songs, on top of coming out very late in the year. Projected finish is 144k.
10. You Should Probably Leave. At 133k, it’s the closest song to making that’s currently charting (aside from Wild Side and Fair Trade). However, it just hit its 20th week, and looks like it’s already peaked. I don’t expect it to last much longer, especially with it sitting outside the top 40.
Projected top 20:
1. Levitating
2. Save Your Tears
3. Good 4 U
4. Kiss Me More
5. Leave the Door Open
6. Stay
7. Driver’s License
8. Montero
9. Blinding Lights
10. Peaches
11. Butter
12. Bad Habits
13. Mood
14. Heat Waves
15. Industry Baby
16. Deja Vu
17. Fancy Like
18. Astronaut in the Ocean
19. Without You
20. Forever After All
