joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Dec 2, 2021 13:28:16 GMT -5
Also *CHART RECORD* with this year Brenda Lee breaks a couple records, for longest gap between year ends (previous appearance was "Coming On Strong in 1966) and for longest timespan from first to last year end hit (1960 to 2021, breaking Paul McCartney's record of 1964 to 2015 by 10 years!) I'm pretty sure she also has the title of oldest person to ever make the year end list at time of list or, if we're going by age at the time of recording, actually the YOUNGEST act to hit the year end list in 20 years (believe it or not she was just 13 when she recorded her christmas classic) No one's doing it like Brenda Lee. Periodt. |
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Dec 2, 2021 13:34:21 GMT -5
One Too Many only made the YE chart because of some weird and arbitrary recurrent rules. Okay, that will be the last post I will make regarding OTM.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Dec 2, 2021 13:35:29 GMT -5
Also *CHART RECORD* with this year Brenda Lee breaks a couple records, for longest gap between year ends (previous appearance was "Coming On Strong in 1966) and for longest timespan from first to last year end hit (1960 to 2021, breaking Paul McCartney's record of 1964 to 2015 by 10 years!) I'm pretty sure she also has the title of oldest person to ever make the year end list at time of list or, if we're going by age at the time of recording, actually the YOUNGEST act to hit the year end list in 20 years (believe it or not she was just 13 when she recorded her christmas classic) No one's doing it like Brenda Lee. Periodt. Hope she's out there poppin' champagne while jamming to All I Do Is Win |
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Post by nathanalbright on Dec 2, 2021 13:38:10 GMT -5
That's a hilarious mental image.
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Post by twelvevinylrecords on Dec 2, 2021 14:22:07 GMT -5
Mad Believer and Mi Gente missed the bottom two spots
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Post by nathanalbright on Dec 2, 2021 14:55:31 GMT -5
It's almost like 2018 all over again  . |
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Dec 2, 2021 15:22:47 GMT -5
Also *CHART RECORD* with this year Brenda Lee breaks a couple records, for longest gap between year ends (previous appearance was "Coming On Strong in 1966). For those old enough to remember, Brenda Lee’s Coming On Strong is the song Golden Earring namedrop in their 1974 classic rock anthem Radar Love. |
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Dec 2, 2021 15:25:07 GMT -5
“And the radio plays some forgotten song
Brenda Lee - Coming On Strong”
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Dec 2, 2021 16:19:51 GMT -5
Time for another year building on this! I know other people have posted the margin of error but i think it's worth comparing how insanely good this was when compared to other years Daniel Collins (2014) Correct Spot: 40 Top 10: 10/10 Top 100: 96/100 Total Spots Off: 166 Worst Miss: Drink A Beer - 19? (Predicted to be 84 and then missed, impossible to know for sure where it would rank in a top 110 but considering that the songs he MISSED that made it were all predicted 101 to 105 then averaging its estimated finish at 103 seems kinda fair? This is a confusing one) broccoli (2015) Correct Spot: 19 Top 10: 9/10 Top 100: 98/100 Total Spots Off: 298 Worst Miss: Habits (Stay High) - 12 (Predicted at 65, finished at 77) georgetherunner314 (2016) Correct Spot: 48 Top 10: 10/10 Top 100: 99/100 Total Spots Off: 79 Worst Miss: Let Me Love You (Predicted at 42, finished at 47. This was because songs 42-46 were all within 4000 points of each other), Starving (Predicted at 89, finished at 94). Both were off by just 5 Snoopdawg (2017) Correct Spot: 20 Top 10: 10/10 Top 100: 98/100 Total Spots Off: 261 Worst Miss: Treat You Better - 16 (Predicted at 76, finished at 92, for some weird reason) Bonus points for being the only person to get #100 right fhas (2018) Correct Spot: 48 Top 10: 10/10 Top 100: 97/100 Total Spots Off: 143 Worst Miss: Say Something - 9 (Predicted at 94, finished at 85.) lights (2019) Correct Spot: 42 Top 10: 10/10 Top 100: 99/100 Total Spots Off: 120 Worst Miss: Swervin - 6 (Predicted at 88, finished at 82) Bonus points for breaking the 99 curse! tanooki (2020) Correct Spot: 36 Top 10: 9/10 Top 100: 99/10 Total Spots Off: 153 Worst Miss: Sum 2 Prove - 12 (Predicted at 67, finished at 79) Austin (2021) Correct Spot: 71 (!!!) Top 10: 10/10 Top 100: 99/100 Total Spots off: 32 (!!!) Worst Miss: Beat Box & RATCT by just 2!!! Impeccable job PositivityMaster48 I think you better take a bow!  Why thank you for this man! It’s been an honour doing these this year! Also side note: add Throat Baby to worst misses. |
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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𝓪 𝓽𝓸𝓻𝓽𝓾𝓻𝓮𝓭 𝓹𝓸𝓮𝓽
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My Charts
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Dec 2, 2021 16:42:01 GMT -5
PositivityMaster48 my man if the comparisons from other Year-End best predictions was any indication, you set the bar way too high! To get 71(!) perfect predictions, and the biggest difference is a -2(!) point. You should be proud of yourself, that was some amazing final prediction.
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Abbaschand
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Post by Abbaschand on Dec 2, 2021 18:00:00 GMT -5
I guess we can say that this is the Golden Era of Billboard predictions. Next year, we'll be entering the Dark Era, with Billboard being more secretive with their data.
A toast to the predictors, and a toast to 2021.
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kindofbiased
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Post by kindofbiased on Dec 2, 2021 18:20:22 GMT -5
I'm so late to talking about this here but I'm happier about Todo De Ti managing to make the year end than probably anything else about the list lol
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atg
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Post by atg on Dec 2, 2021 18:34:41 GMT -5
I'm so late to talking about this here but I'm happier about Todo De Ti managing to make the year end than probably anything else about the list lol At least we can all be happy it was this song that made it over Girls Want Girls. Todo deserved to be higher but making the list is still amazing! |
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Dec 2, 2021 19:33:18 GMT -5
Now that the official results are out, I have a question for people who watch this stuff; was it easier or harder to make the year-end this year? More so what I'm asking is, how many chart points did, say, #60 have this year as compared to last year?
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Dec 2, 2021 19:46:22 GMT -5
Now that the official results are out, I have a question for people who watch this stuff; was it easier or harder to make the year-end this year? More so what I'm asking is, how many chart points did, say, #60 have this year as compared to last year? Easier, without question. 2020's cutoff was around 174,000; 2021's was about 158,000. Using your example of #60 doesn't really paint a clear picture, as Essence would have finished at #64 if its 2021 run was placed on the 2020 YE. What does is that the entire bottom 16 for 2021 (from If I Didn't Love You on down) would not have made the 2020 cutoff. |
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Dec 2, 2021 19:50:27 GMT -5
Now that the official results are out, I have a question for people who watch this stuff; was it easier or harder to make the year-end this year? More so what I'm asking is, how many chart points did, say, #60 have this year as compared to last year? Easier, without question. 2020's cutoff was around 174,000; 2021's was about 158,000. Using your example of #60 doesn't really paint a clear picture, as Essence would have finished at #64 if its 2021 run was placed on the 2020 YE. What does is that the entire bottom 16 for 2021 (from If I Didn't Love You on down) would not have made the 2020 cutoff. That's really interesting, thank you. |
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Post by nathanalbright on Dec 2, 2021 20:23:54 GMT -5
But we knew early on that the bottom part of this YE would be rough. The numbers for streaming for the first part of the year made it clear.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2021 21:37:26 GMT -5
How I did for predicting. Song | Artist(s) | Predicted Spot | Difference | YE Spot {Me VS YE}Levitating By Dua Lipa 1 0 1
Save Your Tears By The Weeknd 2 0 2
Blinding Lights By The Weeknd 3 0 3
Mood By 24kGoldn (iann dior) 4 0 4
Good 4 U By Olivia Rodrigo 6 1 5
Kiss Me More By Doja Cat (SZA) 7 1 6
Leave The Door Open By Silk Sonic [Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak] 5 -2 7
Drivers License By Olivia Rodrigo 9 1 8
Montero (Call Me By Your Name) By Lil Nas X 8 -1 9
Peaches By Justin Bieber (Giveon & Daniel Ceasar) 10 0 10
Butter By BTS 11 0 11
Stay By The Kid LAROI (Justin Bieber) 13 1 12
Deja Vu By Olivia Rodrigo 15 2 13
Positions By Ariana Grande 12 -2 14
Bad Habits By Ed Sheeran 14 -1 15
Heat Waves By Glass Animals 18 2 16
Without You By The Kid LAROI 20 3 17
Forever After All By Luke Combs 19 1 18
Go Crazy By Chris Brown (Young Thug) 16 -3 19
Astronaut In The Ocean By Masked Wolf 21 1 20
34 + 35 By Ariana Grande 17 -4 21
What You Know Bout Love By Pop Smoke 22 0 22
My Ex's Best Friend By Machine Gun Kelly (Blackbear) 24 1 23
Industry Baby By Lil Nas X (Jack Harlow) 25 1 24
Therefore I Am By Billie Eilish 27 2 25
Up By Cardi B 23 -3 26
Fancy Like By Walker Hayes 26 -1 27
Dakiti By Bad Bunny (Jhay Cortez) 28 0 28
Best Friend By Saweetie (Doja Cat) 29 0 29
Rapstar By Polo G 31 1 30
Heartbreak Anniversary By Giveon 30 -1 31
For The Night By Pop Smoke (Lil Baby & DaBaby) 32 0 32
Calling My Phone By Lil Tjay (6LACK) 34 1 33
Beautiful Mistakes By Maroon 5 (Megan Thee Stallion) 35 1 34
Holy By Justin Bieber (Chance The Rapper) 33 -2 35
On Me By Lil Baby 38 2 36
You Broke Me First. By Tate McRae 36 -1 37
Traitor By Olivia Rodrigo 39 1 38
Back In Blood By Pooh Sheisty (Lil Durk) 41 2 39
I Hope By Gabby Barrett (Charlie Puth) 37 -3 40
Dynamite By BTS 44 3 41
Wockesha By Moneybagg yo 43 1 42
You Right By Doja Cat (The Weeknd) 42 -1 43
Beat Box By SpotemGottem 45 1 44
Laugh Now Cry Later By Drake (Lil Durk) 40 -5 45
Need To Know By Doja Cat 46 0 46
Wants and Needs By Drake (Lil Baby) 47 0 47
Way 2 Sexy By Drake (Future & Young Thug) 51 3 48
Telepatia By Kali Uchis 52 3 49
Whoopty By CJ 48 -2 50
Lemonade By Internet Money (Gunna, Don Toliver, & NAV) 49 -2 51
Good Days By SZA 50 -2 52
Starting Over By Chris Stapleton 55 2 53
Body By Megan Thee Stallion 59 5 54
Willow By Taylor Swift 63 8 55
Bang! By AJR 57 1 56
Better Together By Luke Combs 61 4 57
You're Mines Still By Yung Bleu (Drake) 56 -2 58
Every Chance I Get By DJ Khaled (Lil Baby & Lil Durk) 53 -6 59
Essence By Wizkid (Tems) 60 0 60
Chasing After You By Ryan Hurd (Maren Morris) 54 -7 61
The Good Ones By Gabby Barrett 65 3 62
Leave Before You Love Me By Marshmello (Jonas Brothers) 58 -5 63
Glad You Exist By Dan + Shay 62 -2 64
Lonely By Justin Bieber (Benny Blanco) 67 2 65
Beggin' By Maneskin 64 -2 66
Streets By Doja Cat 66 -1 67
What's Next By Drake 72 4 68
Famous Friends By Chris Young (Kane Brown) 70 1 69
Lil Bit By Nelly (Florida Georgia Line) 69 -1 70
Thot S**t By Megan Thee Stallion 68 -3 71
Late At Night By Roddy Ricch 71 -1 72
Kings & Queens By Ava Max 77 4 73
Anyone By Justin Bieber 73 -1 74
Track Star By Mooski 83 8 75
Time Today By Moneybagg yo 79 3 76
Cry Baby By Megan Thee Stallion (DaBaby) 86 9 77
All I Want For Christmas Is You By Mariah Carey 80 2 78
No More Parties By Coi Leray 84 5 79
What's Your Country Song By Thomas Rhett 82 2 80
One Too Many By Keith Urban (P!nk) 81 0 81
Arcade By Duncan Laurence 75 -7 82
Yonaguni By Bad Bunny 78 -5 83
Good Time By Niko Moon 85 1 84
If I Didn't Love You By Jason Aldean (Carrie Underwood) 74 -11 85
Knife Talk By Drake (21 Savage & Project Pat) 87 1 86
pov By Ariana Grande 90 3 87
Just The Way By Parmalee (Blanco Brown) 96 8 88
Take My Breath By The Weeknd 76 -13 89
We're Good By Dua Lipa 92 2 90
Hell Of A View By Eric Church 93 2 91
Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree By Brenda Lee 91 -1 92
Put Your Records On By Ritt Momney 99 6 93
Happier Than Ever By Billie Eilish 88 -6 94
Single Saturday Night By Cole Swindell 89 -6 95
Things A Man Oughta Know By Lainey Wilson 94 -2 96
Throat Baby (Go Baby) By BRS Kash 98 1 97
Tombstone By Rod Wave 95 -3 98
Drinkin' Beer. Talkin' God. Amen By Chase Rice (Florida Georgia Line) 97 -2 99
Todo De Ti By Rauw Alejandro 100 0 100 As for the overall performance, 15 Songs were in the correct spot. All 10 songs in the top 10 made it there, but only 5 of them were in the correct spot. 100 out of 100 songs were correctly predicted to be on the year end. The biggest difference came from Take My Breath being predicted 13 spots higher than it actually was (76 vs 89). |
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Dec 3, 2021 0:18:10 GMT -5
The one advantage to my methodology Is that I only use the Billboard hot 100 chart to determine my positions. And it turned out to be I think remarkably accurate given those constraints.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Dec 3, 2021 2:05:18 GMT -5
I guess not many are sad to have had Goosebumps missing the year-end Hot 100. But given the choice, it would have been Drinkin' Beer, Talkin' God Amen for me. there was never really a possibility of Todo De Ti edging out DBTGA, they had the same hot 100 weeks & DBTGA was leading for 12 out of 20. So I think we got the best case scenario (the most likely way for DBTGA to miss is by the dreaded BUWEIT9) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2021 11:26:03 GMT -5
How many songs do you guys think Morgan Wallen would've had on the Year-End list had he not dropped the N bomb?
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Post by puwrpler04 on Dec 5, 2021 11:34:13 GMT -5
How many songs do you guys think Morgan Wallen would've had on the Year-End list had he not dropped the N bomb? I could see 4 or maybe 5 I think more than my hometown and 7 summers would squeak enough weeks to be on wasted on you would of stuck around more with a radio push and sand in my boots same and I could also see the argument for somebody’s problem at around like 100 |
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Dec 5, 2021 11:53:00 GMT -5
How many songs do you guys think Morgan Wallen would've had on the Year-End list had he not dropped the N bomb? MTMH would have definitely repeated. 7 Summers was already on pace to make it. Wasted On You had a real streaming presence in its first few weeks, so it would have likely still charted and reached a radio peak in the summer. And then maybe Sand In My Boots assuming its radio push would have started around the same time as it did this year (maybe a tad earlier). |
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Post by nathanalbright on Dec 7, 2021 12:54:55 GMT -5
Are we going to keep this one open until the end of the year?
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liam1396
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Post by liam1396 on Dec 10, 2021 14:16:17 GMT -5
This weeks top 40 (without Christmas songs):
1)Easy on Me 21)Save Your Tears
2)Stay 22)Ghost
3)Industry Baby 23)Knife Talk
4)Heat Waves 24)If I Didn't Love You
5)Shivers 25)That's What I Want
6)Need to Know 26)Happier Than Ever
7)Bad Habits 27)Better Days
8)Cold Heart 28)Love Nwantiti(Ah Ah Ah)
9)Smokin Out the Window 29)Meet Me at Our Spot
10)All Too Well(Taylor's Version) 30)Thinkin' Bout You
11)Fancy Like 31)Girls Want Girls
12)abcedfu 32)My Universe
13)Good 4 U 33)Cold as You
14)Essence 34)Who Want Smoke?
15)You Right 35)Buy Dirt
16)Way 2 Sexy 36)Super Gremlin
17)Beggin 37)Pepas
18)One Right Now 38)You Should Probably Leave
19)Kiss Me More 39)By Your Side(new entry)
20)Oh My God 40) Chosen
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Dec 10, 2021 14:28:12 GMT -5
Japan’s 2021 YE chart was based on a 53-week year:
I guess this means the US Billboard 2022 YE chart will likely be a 53-week year.
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Post by plankton5165 on Dec 15, 2021 12:25:13 GMT -5
Songs that appeared in this year-end that are from artists with songs that cracked year-ends in the 2000s decade:
Go Crazy (#19) (Chris Brown)
Beautiful Mistakes (#34) (Maroon 5)
Holy (#35) (Justin Bieber)
Willow (#55) (Taylor Swift)
You’re Mines Still (#58) (Drake)
Essence (#60) (Justin Bieber)
Lonely (#65) (Justin Bieber)
What’s Next (#68) (Drake)
Lil Bit (#70) (Nelly)
Anyone (#74) (Justin Bieber)
All I Want For Christmas Is You (#78) (Mariah Carey)
One Too Many (#81) (Keith Urban and P!nk)
If I Didn’t Love You (#85) (Jason Aldean and Carrie Underwood)
Knife Talk (#86) (Drake)
I’d also mention Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree by Brenda Lee, who is still alive today and first appeared in the Billboard Year-end in 1960! Except this is songs that were also in year-ends from the 2000s decade we’re talking about.
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rimetm
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Post by rimetm on Dec 15, 2021 13:37:22 GMT -5
Japan’s 2021 YE chart was based on a 53-week year: I guess this means the US Billboard 2022 YE chart will likely be a 53-week year. Japan changed their chart date system this year (the dates are now 5 days earlier than prior), and the shift seems to be in response to that. I wouldn't take that as any indication towards decisions regarding the US charts. |
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Dec 16, 2021 0:13:05 GMT -5
Songs that appeared in this year-end that are from artists with songs that cracked year-ends in the 2000s decade: Go Crazy (#19) (Chris Brown) Beautiful Mistakes (#34) (Maroon 5) Holy (#35) (Justin Bieber) You’re Mines Still (#58) (Drake) Essence (#60) (Justin Bieber) Lonely (#65) (Justin Bieber) What’s Next (#68) (Drake) Lil Bit (#70) (Nelly) Anyone (#74) (Justin Bieber) All I Want For Christmas Is You (#78) (Mariah Carey) One Too Many (#81) (Keith Urban and P!nk) If I Didn’t Love You (#85) (Jason Aldean and Carrie Underwood) Knife Talk (#86) (Drake) I’d also mention Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree by Brenda Lee, who is still alive today and first appeared in the Billboard Year-end in 1960! Except this is songs that were also in year-ends from the 2000s decade we’re talking about. On a similar note, I've been keeping track of the highest song on the year end since 2000 by anyone who made it onto a year end in the 1900's. Featuring two different godawful Say Somethings (listen to Austin Mahone's song instead please) | Year | Artist | Song | Position | Notes | | 2000 | Faith Hill | Breathe | #1 |
| | 2001 | Janet Jackson | All For You | #3 |
| | 2002 | Kelly Rowland | Dilemma | #4 | by Nelly | | 2003 | R. Kelly | Ignition (remix) | #2 |
| | 2004 | Usher | Yeah! | #1 | f/ Lil Jon, Ludacris | | 2005 | Mariah Carey | We Belong Together | #1 |
| | 2006 | Timbaland | Promiscuous | #3 | with Nelly Furtado | | 2007 | Beyonce | Irreplaceable | #1 |
| | 2008 | Lil Wayne | Lollipop | #4 | f/ Static Major | | 2009 | Beyonce | Single Ladies | #8 |
| | 2010 | Snoop Dogg | California Gurls | #4 | by Katy Perry | | 2011 | Christina Aguilera | Moves Like Jagger | #9 | by Maroon 5 | | 2012 | Lil Wayne | The Motto | #20 | by Drake | | 2013 | Justin Timberlake | Mirrors | #6 |
| | 2014 | Christina Aguilera | Say Something | #17 | by A Great Big World | | 2015 | Paul McCartney | FourFiveSeconds | #42 | with Rihanna & Kanye West | | 2016 | Justin Timberlake | Can't Stop The Feeling! | #9 |
| | 2017 | Lil Wayne | I'm The One | #12 | DJ Khaled posse cut | | 2018 | Justin Timberlake | Say Something | #85 | f/ Chris Stapleton | | 2019 | Billy Ray Cyrus | Old Town Road | #1 | with Lil Nas X | | 2020 | Gwen Stefani | Nobody But You | #52 | by Blake Shelton | | 2021 | Mariah Carey | All I Want For Christmas Is You | #78 |
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Dec 16, 2021 7:33:05 GMT -5
Songs that appeared in this year-end that are from artists with songs that cracked year-ends in the 2000s decade: Go Crazy (#19) (Chris Brown) Beautiful Mistakes (#34) (Maroon 5) Holy (#35) (Justin Bieber) You’re Mines Still (#58) (Drake) Essence (#60) (Justin Bieber) Lonely (#65) (Justin Bieber) What’s Next (#68) (Drake) Lil Bit (#70) (Nelly) Anyone (#74) (Justin Bieber) All I Want For Christmas Is You (#78) (Mariah Carey) One Too Many (#81) (Keith Urban and P!nk) If I Didn’t Love You (#85) (Jason Aldean and Carrie Underwood) Knife Talk (#86) (Drake) I’d also mention Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree by Brenda Lee, who is still alive today and first appeared in the Billboard Year-end in 1960! Except this is songs that were also in year-ends from the 2000s decade we’re talking about. On a similar note, I've been keeping track of the highest song on the year end since 2000 by anyone who made it onto a year end in the 1900's. Featuring two different godawful Say Somethings (listen to Austin Mahone's song instead please) | Year | Artist | Song | Position | Notes | | 2000 | Faith Hill | Breathe | #1 |
| | 2001 | Janet Jackson | All For You | #3 |
| | 2002 | Kelly Rowland | Dilemma | #4 | by Nelly | | 2003 | R. Kelly | Ignition (remix) | #2 |
| | 2004 | Usher | Yeah! | #1 | f/ Lil Jon, Ludacris | | 2005 | Mariah Carey | We Belong Together | #1 |
| | 2006 | Timbaland | Promiscuous | #3 | with Nelly Furtado | | 2007 | Beyonce | Irreplaceable | #1 |
| | 2008 | Lil Wayne | Lollipop | #4 | f/ Static Major | | 2009 | Beyonce | Single Ladies | #8 |
| | 2010 | Snoop Dogg | California Gurls | #4 | by Katy Perry | | 2011 | Christina Aguilera | Moves Like Jagger | #9 | by Maroon 5 | | 2012 | Lil Wayne | The Motto | #20 | by Drake | | 2013 | Justin Timberlake | Mirrors | #6 |
| | 2014 | Christina Aguilera | Say Something | #17 | by A Great Big World | | 2015 | Paul McCartney | FourFiveSeconds | #42 | with Rihanna & Kanye West | | 2016 | Justin Timberlake | Can't Stop The Feeling! | #9 |
| | 2017 | Lil Wayne | I'm The One | #12 | DJ Khaled posse cut | | 2018 | Justin Timberlake | Say Something | #85 | f/ Chris Stapleton | | 2019 | Billy Ray Cyrus | Old Town Road | #1 | with Lil Nas X | | 2020 | Gwen Stefani | Nobody But You | #52 | by Blake Shelton | | 2021 | Mariah Carey | All I Want For Christmas Is You | #78 |
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Barring a Fancy Like collapse, Elton John’s Cold Heart should be the entry for 2022. |
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