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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Dec 23, 2020 9:42:36 GMT -5
kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2020/12/23
1(=) 24kGoldn - Mood (feat. iann dior) 134.75(+0.10)
2(=) Chris Brown & Young Thug - Go Crazy 119.43(-0.03)
3(=) Justin Bieber - Holy (feat. Chance the Rapper 113.63(+0.62)
4(=) Ariana Grande - positions 107.38(+0.83)
5(+1) Drake - Laugh Now Cry Later (feat. Lil Durk) 99.62(-0.22)
6(-1) Ava Max - Kings & Queens 99.02(-0.98)
7(=) Gabby Barrett - I Hope (feat. Charlie Puth) 89.29(-1.27)
8(=) AJR - Bang! 75.15(+1.01)
9(=) The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 73.16(-0.09)
10(=) Dua Lipa - Levitating (feat. DaBaby) 66.57(+0.75)
12(=) Justin Bieber & benny blanco - Lonely 58.03(+1.48) 13(=) Billie Eilish - Therefore I Am 56.55(+1.00) 37(+4) Pop Smoke - What You Know Bout Love 34.38(+0.91) 63(+3) Taylor Swift - willow 23.11(+1.03)
83(+2) H.e.r. - Damage 17.72(+0.70)
89(+35) Ed Sheeran - Afterglow 16.61(+4.63)
-(-) Mariah Carey - Oh Santa! (feat. Ariana Grande & Jennifer Hudson) 3.15(+1.12) ++ -(-) Dan + Shay - Take Me Home for Christmas 2.67(+2.53) +
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kingvavis
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Post by kingvavis on Dec 23, 2020 12:39:26 GMT -5
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Dec 23, 2020 13:07:56 GMT -5
Heartless surprisingly high!
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lurker2
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Post by lurker2 on Dec 23, 2020 13:35:50 GMT -5
Wow, I Hope and The Bones must've done insane numbers on Amazon or smth
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starlord
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Post by starlord on Dec 23, 2020 14:37:46 GMT -5
Sunflower, King of Streaming Longevity. Released on 18th Oct 2018. In 2019, 2nd most streamed song with 746M. In 2020, 24th most streamed song with 366M. |
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Post by Lost In Musical Reverie on Dec 23, 2020 15:06:42 GMT -5
Still waiting for Britney Spears' "My Only Wish (This Year)" to chart on Spotify. I'm surprised *NSYNC got more traction for their holiday track.
At the rate things are going, we're more likely too see Lady Gaga's "Christmas Tree" charting before it. A TikTok viral exposure is all it takes, after all.
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GP
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Post by GP on Dec 23, 2020 15:28:07 GMT -5
Ed only gaining 350k worldwide is incredibly bad after the already lackluster start. What happened? I feel like most people just aren't paying attention right now. Most are not working anymore, not on their routines anymore and just aren't in that lemme check new music mood but idk |
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kierz7
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Post by kierz7 on Dec 23, 2020 16:12:27 GMT -5
Could a song ever achieve a #1-OUT on the Hot 100, or is that virtually impossible?
Surely thereβd be some levels of sales or streams that could keep a song on the charts for a second week even if it were REALLY low.
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Post by daysintheeast on Dec 23, 2020 16:14:54 GMT -5
Could a song ever achieve a #1-OUT on the Hot 100, or is that virtually impossible? Surely thereβd be some levels of sales or streams that could keep a song on the charts for a second week even if it were REALLY low. Mariah last year and probably next week as well. but its probably impossible for a typical single |
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Post by jamatthews83 on Dec 23, 2020 16:22:31 GMT -5
If it was removed from digital and streaming services after 1 week. Probably for charity.
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renaboss
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Post by renaboss on Dec 23, 2020 16:46:59 GMT -5
Could a song ever achieve a #1-OUT on the Hot 100, or is that virtually impossible? Surely thereβd be some levels of sales or streams that could keep a song on the charts for a second week even if it were REALLY low. Mariah last year and probably next week as well. but its probably impossible for a typical single Even Mariah would have probably charted in the 2nd week of 2020 if it wasn't for the under-50 rule for older songs. |
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π‘πππππ€
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Post by π‘πππππ€ on Dec 23, 2020 17:36:21 GMT -5
If it was removed from digital and streaming services after 1 week. Probably for charity. AND I DONβT WANT THE WOOooRLD TO SEE ME |
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Dec 23, 2020 17:47:30 GMT -5
Could a song ever achieve a #1-OUT on the Hot 100, or is that virtually impossible? Surely thereβd be some levels of sales or streams that could keep a song on the charts for a second week even if it were REALLY low. Maybe a song that re-enters at #1 due to an artist's death. |
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iHype.
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Post by iHype. on Dec 23, 2020 17:48:44 GMT -5
Itβs very possible for a song to debut at #1 and then leave the chart second week entirely, mostly due to the current Billboard formula and how they continue to allow sales to be be heavily impactful in 2020.
Highest in the Room first 2 week sales:
Week 1 - 51,000
Week 2 - 7,000 (-87%)
Heartless first 2 week sales:
Week 1 - 58,000
Week 2- 6,000 (-90%)
Trollz first 2 week sales:
Week 1 - 116,000
Week 2 - 9,000 (-92%)
Franchise first 2 week sales:
Week 1 - 98,000
Week 2 - 15,000 *with a new remix* (-85%)
Sales are the only component which can be heavily inflated first week with tactics, and then drop 90%+ second week. Streaming/Radio has never really shown second week drops that big for songs.
With the current formula, if a song did 200k first week with almost zero streaming/airplay then that would be 400 points off sales alone. Enough to debut #1 in most weeks. If it then fell 90% in sales second week, thatβd be 40 points. Not enough for #100 in most weeks.
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fridayteenage
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Post by fridayteenage on Dec 23, 2020 18:14:27 GMT -5
Mariah last year and probably next week as well. but its probably impossible for a typical single Even Mariah would have probably charted in the 2nd week of 2020 if it wasn't for the under-50 rule for older songs. maybe she goes #50 the week after xmas... |
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Post by kcdawg13 on Dec 23, 2020 18:50:27 GMT -5
Sunflower, King of Streaming Longevity. Released on 18th Oct 2018. In 2019, 2nd most streamed song with 746M. In 2020, 24th most streamed song with 366M. Also Circles being in the Top 10 was a bit surprising, I know it was a huge hit this year on radio and I knew it had some streaming power but didn't expect Top 10 especially since it was split between years. |
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π‘πππππ€
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Post by π‘πππππ€ on Dec 23, 2020 20:16:48 GMT -5
Heartless surprisingly high! Heartless was a success. I know the drop looks bad but itβs a bonafide hit that did well on streaming & radio. |
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Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815...
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Post by Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815... on Dec 23, 2020 20:18:09 GMT -5
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Dec 23, 2020 20:39:53 GMT -5
Heartless surprisingly high! Heartless was a success. I know the drop looks bad but itβs a bonafide hit that did well on streaming & radio. Heartless (Diplo) felt like it should have been a bigger hit on the Hot 100 than it actually was. However, if that song had made the 2020 YE, I guarantee it would also make a lot of people's worst lists, including mine. |
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Dec 23, 2020 20:39:56 GMT -5
It looks like Mood could be the only non-holiday song in the top 10.
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chartfreak
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Post by chartfreak on Dec 23, 2020 21:32:36 GMT -5
Even Mariah would have probably charted in the 2nd week of 2020 if it wasn't for the under-50 rule for older songs. maybe she goes #50 the week after xmas... With one day of streaming and one day of airplay? |
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fridayteenage
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Post by fridayteenage on Dec 23, 2020 21:55:55 GMT -5
maybe she goes #50 the week after xmas... With one day of streaming and one day of airplay? Let's see. totc estimates week ending xmas eve about 473 pts, about 68 pts daily. Let's say Xmas Day is the same as the weekly average, though I expect it would be a bit higher. Per TOTC, "the cutoff for the top 50 for the week of Nov. 21, 2020 was 80 points." Perhaps not likely, but perhaps not impossible. |
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Taylor.
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Post by Taylor. on Dec 23, 2020 22:04:10 GMT -5
If Mariah did manage to stay on the chart next week, at least she would promptly break Taylor's potential fall from #1 record lol
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fridayteenage
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Post by fridayteenage on Dec 23, 2020 22:10:45 GMT -5
If Mariah did manage to stay on the chart next week, at least she would promptly break Taylor's potential fall from #1 record lol or maybe both fall to exactly #33 in their respective weeks, letting onika keep her record |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Dec 23, 2020 22:27:26 GMT -5
As noted above, 6ix9ine and Nicki Minaj's "Trollz" free falls from No. 1 on the Hot 100, where it debuted a week ago, to No. 34. It slides 1-7 on Digital Song Sales (9,000, down 92%) and 3-18 on Streaming Songs (13.8 million, down 62%), although it gains by 97% to 2.3 million in radio reach. The song sets the record for the steepest drop from No. 1 to another rank in the Hot 100's nearly 62-year history, with its 1-34 tumble doubling that of the prior record-holder, The Weeknd's "Heartless," which fell 1-17 on the Dec. 21, 2019-chart. As for the biggest overall drop from No. 1, Mariah Carey's "All I Want for Christmas Is You" disappeared from the chart entirely after it logged its third week on top on Jan. 4, 2020; of course, the departure was essentially owed to the end of the holiday season, as all 25 Yuletide titles on the chart that week were no longer on the Jan. 11 ranking. ("Worth it haaa another record!" Carey joked on Twitter in response to Billboard.) www.billboard.com/articles/business/chart-beat/9411108/dababy-rockstar-number-one-hot-100-third-week |
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Post by οΌ³ο½ο½ο½ο½ο½ο½π€ο½ο½ on Dec 23, 2020 22:27:55 GMT -5
With one day of streaming and one day of airplay? Let's see. totc estimates week ending xmas eve about 473 pts, about 68 pts daily. Let's say Xmas Day is the same as the weekly average, though I expect it would be a bit higher. Per TOTC, "the cutoff for the top 50 for the week of Nov. 21, 2020 was 80 points." Perhaps not likely, but perhaps not impossible. this. plus, (last year) AIWFCIY was #30 on Spotify the day after Christmas and it was in the top 100 on iTunes until the 28th. it's not like there's nothing after the 25th. |
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chartfreak
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Post by chartfreak on Dec 23, 2020 22:30:11 GMT -5
With one day of streaming and one day of airplay? Let's see. totc estimates week ending xmas eve about 473 pts, about 68 pts daily. Let's say Xmas Day is the same as the weekly average, though I expect it would be a bit higher. Per TOTC, "the cutoff for the top 50 for the week of Nov. 21, 2020 was 80 points." Perhaps not likely, but perhaps not impossible. Anything is possible...considering streams on Dec. 26 will still exist, not like fans will let it fall to zero streams. Will be interesting to see. |
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Dec 23, 2020 22:36:59 GMT -5
With one day of streaming and one day of airplay? Let's see. totc estimates week ending xmas eve about 473 pts, about 68 pts daily. Let's say Xmas Day is the same as the weekly average, though I expect it would be a bit higher. Per TOTC, "the cutoff for the top 50 for the week of Nov. 21, 2020 was 80 points." Perhaps not likely, but perhaps not impossible. Playboi Carti's album bomb, plus whatever songs Billboard decides can return from recurrents, will likely knock it off the Hot 100. |
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atg
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Post by atg on Dec 23, 2020 22:50:36 GMT -5
Is there any other recent examples of two singles by the same artist being promoted at the same time and smashing together. I know Camila Cabello usually releases like this but I think one of them usually ends up flopping while the other takes off. I think the most successful example recently was Love Yourself-Sorry and Can't Feel My Face-The Hills. Also even though he wasn't the main artist credited, Bieber also had another instance of having top 10 songs at the same time on Cold Water and Let Me Love You In that case, despacito and iβm the one back in 2017 as well |
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Post by whales10268 on Dec 23, 2020 22:58:01 GMT -5
I think the most successful example recently was Love Yourself-Sorry and Can't Feel My Face-The Hills. Also even though he wasn't the main artist credited, Bieber also had another instance of having top 10 songs at the same time on Cold Water and Let Me Love You In that case, despacito and iβm the one back in 2017 as well Im sure so many people were listening to those songs cuz they had Bieber on them lol. |
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