Billboard Hot 100: 03/27/2021

[degen]

Cardi is leading “Leave the Door Open” on Apple Music, Spotify, Radio and Sales. So I’m not sure how it isnt evident that she will be ahead on the Hot 100. “Drivers License” is the real worry as it has a double radio lead.

[fhas]

Mar 20, 2021 14:53:16 GMT -5 degen said:

Cardi is leading “Leave the Door Open” on Apple Music, Spotify, Radio and Sales. So I’m not sure how it isnt evident that she will be ahead on the Hot 100. “Drivers License” is the real worry as it has a double radio lead.

It is leading on iTunes since yesterday, but that's counted for the Hot 100 dated as April 3rd, not this week (March 27th). For the charts that will be announced on Monday, LTDO will have more digital sales than Up (probably a 5K-10K gap in sales).

The lead Up had on Spotify and Apple Music this week wasn't huge. It also was bigger on YouTube. Again, not by a huge margin.

LTDO's airplay probably is 10-15% higher than Up's airplay on Billboard. Up is #1 on Rhythmic radio and that's the format that's the weakest on Billboard compared to Mediabase. LTDO is big on Adult R&B radio and that's a format that's strong on Billboard compared to Mediabase.

[degen]

Mar 20, 2021 15:11:50 GMT -5 fhas said:

Mar 20, 2021 14:53:16 GMT -5 degen said:

Cardi is leading “Leave the Door Open” on Apple Music, Spotify, Radio and Sales. So I’m not sure how it isnt evident that she will be ahead on the Hot 100. “Drivers License” is the real worry as it has a double radio lead.

It is leading on iTunes since yesterday, but that's counted for the Hot 100 dated as April 3rd, not this week (March 27th). For the charts that will be announced on Monday, LTDO will have more digital sales than Up (probably a 5K-10K gap in sales).

The lead Up had on Spotify and Apple Music this week wasn't huge. It also was bigger on YouTube. Again, not by a huge margin.

LTDO's airplay probably is 10-15% higher than Up's airplay on Billboard. Up is #1 on Rhythmic radio and that's the format that's the weakest on Billboard compared to Mediabase. LTDO is big on Adult R&B radio and that's a format that's strong on Billboard compared to Mediabase.

Thanks for the info. I hope Cardi can pull it off. It would be good for her to have 2 #1s even before the album drops, then the next single could potentially make 3 #1s off one album which would be a record for a female rapper.

[phieaglesfan712]

This just shows that Blinding Lights would have so been #1 if it did not get snubbed by the Grammys:

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Up/WAP's Grammys performance was #1 in the YouTube weekly video charts. The official video for Up got slightly more than half of its weekly views. Back in Blood remained at #2. Combining the official video and Grammys performance Leave the Door Open would be #3. The official video for No More Parties remix would be #4 and Streets #5, while  I Ain't Scared debuted at #6, On the Ground debuted at #7, Street Runner at #8 and Levitating at #9 if you combine the views for official video with the Levitating/Don't Start Now Grammys performance.

[s9983]

Mar 20, 2021 4:28:44 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Mar 20, 2021 0:45:53 GMT -5 s9983 said:

I'm not too sure about that. Unless up starts collapsing in radio and decreasing, it's prolly not happening next week. Up is now ahead in sales & streams , and LTDO wont have the necessary radio to offset those differences. This is assuming LTDO continues to decline in streams and sales as it has been from the last 2 days

I don't know how you could say that when Talk of the Charts, while still having Up as the favorite to go #1 on Monday, also clarified that Leave the Door Open and Driver's License aren't that far behind and could also be #1 as well.

That means, whatever lead Up has on streams/sales isn't nearly enough and the radio gains for Leave the Door Open are substantial enough to make up whatever gap in points there may be. It's important to note that while the tracking week for streams/sales ended on Thursday, the tracking week for radio ends on Sunday so Leave the Door Open still has 2 more days to cover up the lead Up has with chart points from radio.

Up has already peaked on Rhythmic radio. It's currently #2 on Urban radio and once it peaks there, it'll get dropped for another song as well. That's audience impressions being lost from 2 radio formats and it isn't doing nearly well enough on Pop radio to cover those losses.

Next week is the only week Up has to go #1. If it doesn't, that's it. Leave the Door Open will most definitely be #1 the following week and it's gaining so much on radio and is stable on sales on streaming so it's points will only increase from there. I still think Up could go #1 this week but I'm not as sure as I was before because I didn't know points between all 3 songs would be still be this close this far into the tracking week.

Ur literally forgetting that Bruno had one of the biggest grammy impacts > his pure sales went from 28k debut week, 24k grammy week - this was supposed to be somewhere from 12-15k originally. It's now supposed to drop at least 10k this week and it's slowly dropping in streams. 

Your right that up is near its radio peak but it seems to be doing well on pop radio so as long as it's minimally gaining till sunday, that will help it. It's also more stable in terms of streaming. LTDO will not gain +4 on radio everyday till sunday. 

I wouldn't say it's super likely for one over the other. We just have to see how radio handles each and how stable they remain through the week. One thing is for sure though, unless LTDO completely collapses or some big threat comes out of nowhere, it will most likely be #1 after next week.

[jenglisbe]

Mar 19, 2021 15:31:16 GMT -5 strongerq said:

There are songs on that list that haven't even charted on the Hot 100. It further proves that chart runs and longevity are 2 different things.

Has anyone ever said otherwise?

[thegreatdivine]

[GP]

TOTC hyping it up we love to see it

[chartfreak]

^That makes for an exciting Monday.

[phieaglesfan712]

Finally, a prediction:

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 from 60, 55, 50, 45, and 40 years ago:

March 20, 1961 (For the week ending March 25)

01 02 Surrender - Elvis Presley (1st of 2 weeks at #1)
02 01 Pony Time - Chubby Checker
03 04 Don't Worry - Marty Robbins
04 05 Where The Boys Are - Connie Francis
05 07 Dedicated To The One I Love - The Shirelles
06 11 Apache - Jorge Ingmann
07 03 Wheels - The String-A-Longs
08 09 Ebony Eyes - The Everly Brothers
09 13 Walk Right Back - The Everly Brothers
10 06 Baby Sittin' Boogie - Buzz Clifford

21 59 Blue Moon - The Parcels


March 26, 1966

01 01 Ballad Of The Green Berets - Sgt. Barry Sadler (4th of 5 weeks at #1)
02 02 19th Nervous Breakdown - The Rolling Stones
03 04 Nowhere Man - The Beatles
04 03 These Boots Are Made For Walkin' - Nancy Sinatra
05 08 Homeward Bound - Simon & Garfunkel
06 10 Daydream - The Lovin' Spoonful
07 07 California Dreamin' - The Mamas & The Paps
08 14 (You're My) Soul And Inspiration - The Righteous Brothers
09 05 Elusive Butterfly - Bob Lind
10 06 Listen People - Herman's Hermits

17 41 Bang Bang - Cher
21 50 Time Won't Let Me - The Outsiders
22 60 Secret Agent Man - Johnny Rivers


March 27, 1971

01 01 Me & Bobby McGee - Janis Joplin (2nd and final week at #1)
02 03 Just My Imagination (Running Away With Me) - The Temptations
03 02 She's a Lady - Tom Jones
04 06 Proud Mary - Ike & Tina Turner
05 05 For All We Know - The Carpenters
06 07 Doesn't Somebody Want To Be Wanted - The Partridge Family
07 08 What's Going On - Marvin Gaye
08 09 Help Me Make It Through The Night - Sammi Smith
09 04 One Bad Apple - The Osmonds
10 15 What Is Life - George Harrison


March 27, 1976

01 01 December 1963 (Oh, What a Night) - The Four Seasons (3rd and final week at #1)
02 03 Dream Weaver - Gary Wright
03 05 Lonely Night - The Captain & Tennille
04 02 All By Myself - Eric Carmen
05 10 Disco Lady - Johnnie Taylor
06 07 Sweet Thing - Rufus feat. Chaka Khan
07 08 Dream On - Aerosmith
08 17 Let Your Love Flow - The Bellamy Brothers
09 14 Right Back Where We Started From - Maxine Nightingale
10 11 Money Honey - The Bay City Rollers


March 28, 1981

01 06 Rapture - Blondie (1st of 2 weeks at #1)
02 02 Woman - John Lennon
03 03 The Best Of Times - Styx
04 01 Keep On Loving You - REO Speedwagon
05 05 Crying - Don McLean
06 07 Hello Again - Neil Diamond
07 04 9 To 5 - Dolly Parton
08 23 Just The Two Of Us - Grover Washington Jr. w/Bill Withers
09 12 Kiss On My List - Daryl Hall & John Oates
10 10 What Kind Of Fool - Barbra Streisand & Barry Gibb

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 from 35, 30, 25, and 20 years ago:

March 29, 1986

01 04 Rock Me Amadeus - Falco (1st of 3 weeks at #1)
02 01 These Dreams - Heart
03 03 Secret Lovers - Atlantic Starr
04 05 R.O.C.K. In The USA - John Cougar Mellencamp
05 10 Kiss - Prince & The Revolution
06 09 What You Need - INXS
07 07 Nikita - Elton John
08 02 Sara - Starship
09 13 Let's Go All The Way - Sly Fox
10 11 This Could Be The Night - Loverboy


March 30, 1991

01 03 Coming Out Of The Dark - Gloria Estefan (1st of 2 weeks at #1)
02 01 One More Try - Timmy T
03 04 This House - Tracie Spencer
04 06 Hold You Tight - Tara Kemp
05 08 I've Been Thinking About You - Londonbeat
06 02 Someday - Mariah Carey
07 07 You're In Love - Wilson Phillips
08 10 Sadeness (Part 1) - Enigma
09 05 Get Here - Oleta Adams
10 11 Signs - Tesla


March 30, 1996

01 01 Because You Loved Me - Celine Dion (2nd of 6 weeks at #1)
02 02 Nobody Knows - The Tony Rich Project
03 03 Sittin' Up In My Room - Brandy
04 06 Down Low (Nobody Has To Know) - R. Kelly feat. Ronald Isley
05 04 Not Gon' Cry - Mary J. Blige
06 07 Ironic - Alanis Morissette
07 05 One Sweet Day - Mariah Carey & Boyz II Men
08 08 Missing - Everything But The Girl
09 09 Follow You Down / 'Til I Hear It From You - Gin Blossoms
10 12 Lady - D'Angelo


March 24, 2001

01 02 Butterfly - Crazy Town (1st of 2 weeks at #1)
02 03 Angel - Shaggy feat. Rayvon
03 01 Stutter - Joe feat. Mystikal
04 04 Again - Lenny Kravitz
05 05 Love Don't Cost a Thing - Jennifer Lopez
06 14 All For You - Janet Jackson
07 06 It's Over Now - 112
08 10 Put It On Me - Ja Rule feat. Lil Mo & Vita
09 08 Don't Tell Me - Madonna
10 09 Promise - Jagged Edge

17 43 Survivor - Destiny's Child

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

It looks like today's kworb radio update didn't do so correctly.

[Enigma.]

The #1 might be "weak" in numbers, but the fact that there are three equally strong songs battling for #1 makes it very exciting

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 Flashback:

March 25, 2006

01 01 So Sick - Ne-Yo (2nd and final week at #1)
02 02 Temperature - Sean Paul
03 03 You're Beautiful - James Blunt
04 04 Be Without You - Mary J. Blige
05 14 Bad Day - Daniel Powter
06 06 I'm N Luv (Wit a Stripper) - T-Pain feat. Mike Jones
07 10 Unwritten - Natasha Bedingfield
08 05 Check On It - Beyonce feat. Slim Thug
09 09 Lean Wit It, Rock Wit It - Dem Franchize Boyz feat. Lil Peanut & Charlay
10 08 Yo (Excuse Me Miss) - Chris Brown


March 26, 2011

01 01 Born This Way - Lady Gaga (5th of 6 weeks at #1)
02 02 F**k You (Forget You) - CeeLo Green
03 08 E.T. - Katy Perry feat. Kanye West
04 03 S&M - Rihanna
05 05 On The Floor - Jennifer Lopez feat. Pitbull
06 04 F**kin' Perfect - P!nk
07 06 Grenade - Bruno Mars
08 09 Tonight (I'm Lovin' You) - Enrique Iglesias feat. Ludacris & DJ Frank E
09 20 Till The World Ends - Britney Spears
10 07 Blow - Ke$ha

23 NE Landslide - Glee Cast feat. Gwyneth Paltrow


March 26, 2016

01 01 Work - Rihanna feat. Drake (4th of 9 weeks at #1)
02 02 Love Yourself - Justin Bieber
03 03 Stressed Out - Twenty One Pilots
04 04 My House - Flo Rida
05 09 7 Years - Lukas Graham
06 06 PILLOWTALK - Zayn
07 07 Me, Myself & I - G-Eazy & Bebe Rexha
08 05 Sorry - Justin Bieber
09 10 Cake By The Ocean - DNCE
10 14 I Took a Pill In Ibiza - Mike Posner

11 NE No - Meghan Trainor


March 28, 2020

01 01 The Box - Roddy Ricch (11th and final week at #1)
02 04 Blinding Lights - The Weeknd
03 02 Don't Start Now - Dua Lipa
04 03 Life Is Good - Future feat. Drake
05 05 Circles - Post Malone
06 07 Roxanne - Arizona Zervas
07 16 Adore You - Harry Styles
08 10 Intentions - Justin Bieber feat. Quavo
09 15 Someone You Loved - Lewis Capaldi
10 14 everything i wanted - Billie Eilish

11 17 Hot Girl Bummer - Blackbear
13 NE Myron - Lil Uzi Vert
19 NE Bean (Kobe) - Lil Uzi Vert feat. Chief Keef
20 NE Suicidal - YNW Melly & Juice WRLD
26 NE Yessirskiii - Lil Uzi Vert & 21 Savage

[kingvavis]

If UGC streams were counted like they were pre-January 2020, what would some of the points look like for the songs at the top this week?

[Choco]

Weekly reminder that 10k people buying 4 copies should not get you back into the top 20.

Good day.

[chartfreak]

Would that be a new peak for Levitating?

[kimberly]

Mar 21, 2021 14:51:24 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

Would that be a new peak for Levitating?

no it peaked at No. 5

[thegreatdivine]

[phieaglesfan712]

That has to be a typo on Dynamite. No way it only did 30k, given that last week's number was 28k. My guess is that should be 50k.

[staycool]

16k seems like a lot for Up sales.

[gikem]

Wow, so it's possible that the new Imagine Dragons song might not even debut this week.

[s9983]

Mar 21, 2021 15:47:08 GMT -5 staycool said:

16k seems like a lot for Up sales.

That's also an underestimation by TOTC. They said they're playing it safe with that number but it should be a bit more. 

[jenglisbe]

Mar 19, 2021 15:02:11 GMT -5 Gary said:

This weeks top 25 songs from the 90s
(from Ask Billboard)

By applying the Hot 100's airplay-, sales- and streaming-based methodology, here are the top 25 hits this week that were released in the '90s. (Ranks reflect songs' sales and streams in the week ending March 11 and airplay in the week ending March 14, according to MRC Data).

Top 25 Songs This Week From the '90s
1, "Smells Like Teen Spirit," Nirvana
2, "Thunderstruck," AC/DC
3, "Under the Bridge," Red Hot Chili Peppers
4, "Iris," Goo Goo Dolls
5, "Enter Sandman," Metallica
6, "No Scrubs," TLC
7, "Santeria," Sublime
8, "Come as You Are," Nirvana
9, "Killing Me Softly," Fugees feat. Bounty Killer
10, "It Was a Good Day," Ice Cube
11, "I Want It That Way," Backstreet Boys
12, "Neon Moon," Brooks & Dunn
13, "Everlong," Foo Fighters
14, "All the Small Things," Blink-182
15, "Return of the Mack," Mark Morrison
16, "Mary Jane's Last Dance," Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers
17, "Wonderwall," Oasis
18, "Time of Your Life (Good Riddance)," Green Day
19, "Don't Speak," No Doubt
20, "California Love," 2Pac feat. Dr. Dre & Roger Troutman
21, "Creep," Radiohead
22, "Waterfalls," TLC
23, "Always Be My Baby," Mariah Carey
24, "Somewhere Over the Rainbow," Israel "Iz" Kamakawiwo'ole
25, "Scar Tissue," Red Hot Chili Peppers

This is super interesting to me, and I'd love if they had something like this every week (maybe a different decade per week or something).

It's tragic, though, that out of 25 songs, only 1 is by a solo woman. Only 5 out of the 25 (so, 20%) are sung by a woman. WTF?

[Lukas]

Mar 21, 2021 15:30:53 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

That has to be a typo on Dynamite. No way it only did 30k, given that last week's number was 28k. My guess is that should be 50k.

Not when HITS lists BE's TEA as 3,244, which is what TOTC used.

[Lukas]

Mar 21, 2021 15:47:08 GMT -5 staycool said:

16k seems like a lot for Up sales.

It's not. It gained so much within the last day, to the point where it probably got at least 11k sales from digital platforms and then (likely) 5k more from the website. If anything 16k is actually an underestimate. I don't get where people think it's doing negligible D2C. Bardigang are still a big fanbase and were able to get around 11k sales from the website first week. With how hard they were pushing, I'd be surprised if they did significantly under half than they did first week.

[fhas]

[whales10268]

Leave the Door Open will hit number one eventually once radio catches on so Up beating it this week isn’t a tragedy.